按需乘车：汽车拥有和公共交通中断的最初迹象（英文版）.pdf

ubs/investmentresearch This report has been prepared by UBS Securities France S.A. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 44. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Global Research 28 January 2020 UBS Evidence Lab inside: Global mobility Ride-on-demand: First signs of disruption for car ownership and public transports First signs of disruption for private car ownership and public transport Ride-on-demand (ROD) platforms are already the fourth most frequently used transportation mode. ROD apps are very popular: the run-rate of downloads has stabilised at c10m/week, while usage continues to increase and the addressable market is expanding. The UBS Evidence Lab consumer survey of 17,000-plus respondents across six markets shows: (1) some early signs of behaviour change; and (2) ROD could disrupt both private car ownership (the weight of respondents not purchasing a car because of ROD has doubled, reaching 8% in 2019 (vs 2018) and public transport (ROD is increasingly used for the daily commute). The acceptance of robotaxis by consumers is relatively high for a technology that has yet to become available and mainstream. Should the auto industry and public authorities be worried? We do not think so, as the impact on new car sales will remain immaterial in the medium term. Further, the launch dates of commercial robotaxi fleets continue to be delayed, and we do not see a sharp boost in the adoption curve before 2030 at the earliest. No price war in sight; robotaxi launches will push prices lower in the long term The ROD industry continues to fragment with regional players gaining further momentum versus Uber (Lyft in North America, BMW/Daimler mobility joint venture (JV) in Europe, Grab in Southeast Asia). However, we have no evidence that pricing is about to turn more competitive quite the opposite, in fact: less than 5% of the markets we track globally have experienced a price decline since 2016. Nevertheless, we see downwards pressure on the pricing outlook in the long run, mostly driven by the introduction of robotaxi fleets: UBS Evidence Labs unique robotaxi simulation showed the fare paid by passengers could fall by more than 80% (less than US$3). Sub-sector/stock implications: Pure ROD players, semis and tires preferred Sectors benefiting the most include internet, semis, and tires. Uber Note: prices as for US names are 24 Jan 2020 close, others are as of 27 Jan 2020. I m p a c t e d b y t h e t h e m e S t o c k A n a l y s t R a t i n g P r i c e T a r g e t S h a r e p r i c e U p s i d e t o P T P E 2 0 2 0 P E 2 0 2 1P o s i t i v e l y A l p h a b e t E r i c S h e r i d a n Buy 1 , 6 7 5 1 , 4 6 7 14% 3 0 . 3 x 2 7 . 3 xL y f t E r i c S h e r i d a n Buy 6 4 . 0 4 8 . 4 32% - 2 7 . 2 x - 6 2 . 1 xA l i b a b a J e r r y L i u Buy 270 214 26% 3 1 . 9 x 2 5 . 7 xB a i d u J e r r y L i u Buy 460 386 19% 2 8 . 1 x 2 3 . 3 xT e n c e n t J e r r y L i u Buy 460 386 19% 2 8 . 1 x 2 3 . 3 xA p p l e T i m o t h y A r c u r i Buy 355 318 12% 2 3 . 7 x 2 0 . 1 xI n t e l T i m o t h y A r c u r i Buy 7 5 . 0 6 8 . 5 10% 1 3 . 5 x 1 3 . 4 xN v i d i a T i m o t h y A r c u r i Buy 300 250 20% 4 3 . 4 x 3 0 . 3 xI n f i n e o n D a v i d M u l h o l l a n d Buy 2 5 . 0 2 2 . 0 14% 2 3 . 9 x 2 1 . 1 xY a n d e x U l y a n a L e n v a l s k a y a Buy 5 7 . 0 4 5 . 4 26% 2 1 . 3 x 1 3 . 4 xC o m f o r t D e l G r o R a c h e l T a n Buy 2 . 6 0 2 . 2 2 17% 1 5 . 6 x 1 5 . 4 xK a k a o T a e w o n K i m Buy 1 7 0 , 0 0 0 1 6 5 , 5 0 0 3% 3 6 . 9 x 3 0 . 9 xA p t i v D a v i d L e s n e N e u t r a l 9 2 . 0 9 1 . 5 1% 1 7 . 3 x 1 5 . 0 xM i c h e l i n D a v i d L e s n e Buy 125 107 17% 9 . 6 x 9 . 1 xN e g a t i v e l y PSA D a v i d L e s n e N e u t r a l 2 0 . 0 1 9 . 3 4% 6 . 3 x 6 . 2 xV e o n e e r D a v i d L e s n e S e l l 1 4 . 0 1 3 . 6 3% - 4 . 6 x - 6 . 8 xF C A P a t r i c k H u m m e l N e u t r a l 1 2 . 0 1 2 . 1 - 1 % 5 . 5 x 5 . 1 xS c h a e f f l e r P a t r i c k H u m m e l S e l l 6 . 3 9 . 3 - 3 2 % 7 . 6 x 7 . 2 xUBS Evidence Lab inside: Global mobility 28 January 2020 7 UBS Research PIVOTAL QUESTIONS return Q: Is the ride-on-demand industry remaining disciplined on pricing? UBS VIEW Yes. The ROD industry continues to fragment further, but this does not seem to have had an impact on prices (yet), as most markets experienced a price increase last year. We found there is a decent level of price elasticity (30% of ROD users would increase usage by more than 20% if prices were 10% lower). However, it appears ROD users have become less sensitive to price reductions over the past three years. In contrast, non-ROD users are turning more sensitive to price reductions. Therefore, we do not expect a price war in the medium term. Meanwhile, the average spend per trip estimated by ROD user has stabilised compared with 2018 (after a sharp increase between 2016 and 2018 up a multiple of 3x in France, for instance). We have split the ROD 1.0 market into: (1) Uber leadership (the US, Canada, Europe); (2) incumbent leadership (Russia, China, Southeast Asia); (3) the battleground market (Ola); and (4) South America. The market share of Uber (as a proportion of total downloads) continues to normalise to lower levels. In Europe, the mobility joint venture (JV) between Daimler and BMW is gaining further traction with ROD users with its market share expanding to 19% in 2019 from 17% last year. EVIDENCE Evidence point 1: This is the eighth time since 2016 that the ROD app download analysis was run. The download analyses are based on the aggregation of iOS and Google Play data. The latest data point shows that the HHI has reached a level slightly below 1,500. Evidence point 2: The UberX pricing trends show that most markets have experienced a price increase (of the 700 tracked). Evidence point 3: The UBS Evidence Lab ROD survey, involving more than 17,000 respondents, shows that ROD users are becoming less sensitive to price reductions. Ride-on-demand industry fragmenting further The ride-on-demand industry benefits from a fairly high level of concentration, which seems to us to have peaked in 2016. The top three players now control 51% of the market (2018: 58%), up from 47% in 2014, but down from 70% at the peak in 2016 (as a percentage of app downloads) (Figure 3). We have calculated the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for ride-on-demand services (methodology below) to gauge the concentration level. The HHI increased from 1,700 in 2014 to close to 3,000 in 2016. Since then, however, it has declined steadily and currently stands below 1,500 (Figure 4). In the HHI methodology, a value above 2,500 reflects a highly concentrated industry. ROD no longer benefits from a high level of concentration UBS Evidence Lab inside: Global mobility 28 January 2020 8 Figure 3: Market shares of the leading ROD platforms Figure 4: HHI concentration index for ROD services Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Sensor Tower, iOS and GooglePlay combined. Note: Based on the share of global downloads; excludes China Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Sensor Tower, iOS and GooglePlay combined. Note: Based on the share of global downloads; excludes China but high level of concentration boosts pricing power Let us now connect this high level of concentration with pricing trends. For this report, the UBS Evidence Lab Price Intelligence team has collected Uber prices on a weekly basis for 700 markets across 70 countries since June 2016. From this data set, we are able to track new market launches for UberX, as well as relative prices across markets and price changes. Figure 5 shows that Uber has increased prices in 22% of its markets, while it has barely reduced prices in any markets, on average, over the period. Figure 5: UberX pricing trends globally since October 2016 Source: UBS Evidence Lab. Note: One caveat: UBS Evidence Lab looks at base pricing and does not account for incentives, promotions or discounts. 51% 63% 80% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Top 3 Top 5 Top 10-5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019HHI concentration indexHighly concentrated industry definition0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Increase Same DecreaseNo markets have experienced a decline in prices over the past five months UBS Evidence Lab inside: Global mobility 28 January 2020 9 Figure 6: Uber price change by country in 2019 Figure 7: Uber price change by city (%) Source: UBS Evidence Lab Source: UBS Evidence Lab In the past, we have not been able to find any strong correlation between changes in market share (as a percentage of app downloads) and changes in (UberX) pricing. We have once again run all possible correlations, but we did not find any strong ones. This can be explained by: Lack of pricing transparency: People initially download a shared mobility app without having much information on pricing. Lack of supply: Increasing pricing might be more relevant initially to address the lack of supply and attract new drivers. Our app downloads analysis does not capture data on supply. Mispricing: When a new market is launched, the platform is initially navigating in the dark and may not be able to optimise its pricing policy, given the lack of information available. Uber is not a price leader: We are looking at UberX, which may not be the price leader in a given market. Are consumers sensitive to prices? The UBS Evidence Lab survey points to some price elasticity of demand, with 30% of the current ROD users saying they would increase usage by more than 20% if fares dropped by 10% (this was down from 38% of users in 2016). These figures increase to 48% of respondents for a 30% fare drop and 67% of respondents for a 50% decline in prices (Figure 8). It appears that ROD consumers have become less sensitive to price reductions over the past three years. We did not find any strong correlation between changes in market share and changes in pricing 30% of current ROD users would increase usage by more than 20% if prices dropped by 10% UBS Evidence Lab inside: Global mobility 28 January 2020 10 Figure 8: ROD users who would increase usage 20% for a given price reduction Source: UBS Evidence Lab 2016 and 2018 ride-on-demand consumer surveys. Note: Includes the US, UK and France. Price elasticity is less apparent for non-users. According to the UBS Evidence Lab survey, just 11% would increase usage if prices dropped by 10% (from 9% of respondents in 2016). This percentage increases to 19% of respondents for a 30% reduction and 30% for a 50% reduction. Contrary to ROD users, non-ROD users are becoming more sensitive to price drops. Figure 9: Percentage of non-users of ROD platforms who would increase usage for a given price reduction Source: UBS Evidence Lab 2016 and 2018 ride-on-demand consumer surveys. Note: Includes the US, UK and France. ROD users were also asked to provide an estimate of the average amount spent on each trip. There was a sharp increase across regions with the average amount spent increasing by a multiple of 3x in France, for instance. We note that the average spent is small when compared with the 2018 survey. 38% 55% 70% 30% 51% 67% 29% 48% 67% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%10% fare reduction 20% fare reduction 30% fare reduction2016 2018 20199% 14% 22% 8% 16% 26% 11% 19% 30% 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%10% fare reduction 30% fare reduction 50% fare reduction2016 2018 2019The UBS Evidence Lab consumer survey points to the price elasticity of current users Non-ROD users are becoming more sensitive to price drops Average spent per trip increasing sharply