让公共交通可持续发展：公共交通公司如何利用新技术提高运营利润（英文版）.pdf

April 2019Making public transport self-sustainableHow public transit companies can operate more profitably with new technologyManagement summaryLocal public transit in Germany is subsidized from the public purse. Each year, the German state and various public authorities finance public transit to the tune of EUR 3.2 billion,1covering not only the costs of running the business but also the costs of environmental protecnulltion, providing a basic level of public services and ennullsuring social participation and nulluality of life in German cities. Up until nonull, the fact that these tasnull relied on public subsidies seemed unnulluestionable.nullt in recent years, nenulltechnology has emerged that could change the face of urban mobility as nulle nullonullit. nullplied correctly, this nenulltechnology opens up enor nullmous opportunities for Germanynull public transit system.nulle set out to discover nullich nenulltechnology nullor tech nullnologies nullpublic transit companies can manulle the best use of. nulle gathered data from our onulln studies, nullint pronullcts nullth transit companies and discussions nullth industry enullerts, and analyzed the trends that emerged. nulle discussed these trends nullth representatives of pub nulllic transit companies, rail travel enullerts, academics and suppliers of modern mobility solutions. nulle resultsnull nullven strategies for manullng public transit in German cities more profitable. nullome of these strategies are ready for full implementation nonull others should be incorpo nullrated into transit companiesnullplanning activities nullth a vienullto implementation in the medium term.nulle also calculated nullether implementing these strate nullgies nullould boost profitability for three different types of German cities. nulle results shonullthat in addition to the general economic advantages of public transit, public transit companies can nonullachieve profitability in their operations thannulls to the nenull technology. nullhis nullill manulle it possible to substantially cut subsidies for public trannullsit companies in mediumnullized and large cities. nulltrop nullolises could even start turning a profit.nullo enullloit this potential, public transit companies and politicians need to rethinnulltheir approach. nullere com nullpanies today focus on developing nenullbusiness models, they should thinnullabout honullthey can manulle use of mod nullern technology instead. nullat may involve entering into partnerships nullth private companies. nulld it is up to pol nulliticians to provide them nullth the financial means for manullng the necessary investments nonull, during the transformation phase.1nullbsidies for local public transit companies. nullis figure enullcludes concession fees for regional rail transportation companies for the provision of urban rail transit and commuter transit.2 Roland Berger Focus Making public transport self-sustainableContentsCoverphoto: Grafissimo, Jorg Greuel/GettyImages; Allicons in the studyfrom Noun Project1. Gridlocked: The dilemma of public transit . 4Why public transit is a subsidy business in Germany2. Technology shows the way . 5Urban mobility is transforming3. The road to profitability . 6Seven strategies for public transit companies4. The upshot? Profitability is possible . 14Savings for all cities, profits for metropolises5. New perspectives, new partners . 16What public transit companies and politicians must doMaking public transport self-sustainable Roland Berger Focus 3Local public transit is a subsidy business in Germany. null average, public transit companies cover only null per nullcent of their costs. nullis is partly because their spending on personnel, energy, infrastructure and vehicles nullur nullchase, maintenance and modernizationnullis greater than their revenues, and partly because they are legally renullnulluired to provide a basic level of public services at an affordable price across the entire country, even on routes nullere this is not economically viable.nulle gap in companiesnullrevenues is filled from the public purse. Each year, the state funds municipal pubnulllic transit companies to the tune of EUR 3.2 billion, nullich is more than ten percent of the German nullnistry of nullransport and nullgital nullfrastructurenull annual budget. nullis money is in addition to the EUR nullnullbillion or so paid in nulloncession feesnull the state subsidies for local rail transit nullncluding regional, suburban and commut nuller trainsnull nullproportion of these concession fees nullessen nulltially the part covering suburban and commuter trains, plus transfers betnulleen railroad stations nullthin cities null can linullenullse be considered local public transit subsidies.nullom a general economic point of vienull, these subsi nulldies are a good thingnullnulley guarantee highnullnulluality transportation infrastructure and limit the nullnullernal costsnullof individual transportation. nullt pressure is gronullng on public transit to offer cheaper or even free local transportation, follonullng the enullmple set by cities such as nullenna, nullere annual ticnullets for public transit cost nullust EUR 3null, or Lunullembourg, nullose residents nullll be able to use the entire public transit system free of charge from the year 2nullnull A1. Gridlocked: The dilemma of public transit Why public transit is a subsidy business in GermanySource: Roland Berger*See VDV-Statistik 2017, pp. 35ff (cost recovery ratio as calculated by the Association of German Transport Companies)COST RECOVERY RATIO*A: A subsidy business Cost recovery ratio of German public transit companiesREVENUES EUR 10.4 bn GAPEUR 3.2 bnCOSTS 2016 EUR 13.6 bn78%76%74%72%70%2007 2011 201678%76%76%4 Roland Berger Focus Making public transport self-sustainableUrban life has changed dramatically in recent years. nullis transformation has been driven by nenulltechnology, alongside economic, environmental, social and political developments nulldevelopments that are also set to radi nullcally change local transportation in German cities. nullo identify the nulley trends affecting todaynulls mobility sector, nulle analyzed data from pronullcts that nulle have carried out nullth municipal public transit companies, other studies and discussions nullth enullerts. nulle follonullng changes stood outnullTECHNOLOGICAL CHANGEnulldern mobility solutions are developing faster than ever. nulley include selfnulldriving and netnullornulled vehicles, vehicles ponullered by nonnullfossil fuels and the use of renullalnullime data.ECONOMIC CHANGEnullompanies providing innovative mobility solutions and business models are nonullcompeting nullth municipal public transit companies for customers and control of the customer interface.ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEnullimate change is forcing us to find environmentally friendly solutions to congestion and emissions.SOCIAL CHANGEnulloplenull enullectations of mobility are changing funda nullmentally. nulley are increasingly calling for integrated systems that combine different modes of transportation in a coordinated manner and allonullthem to snulltch from one mode to another at specific points or nullhubsnull. nullhey also increasingly nullnt to share vehicles and access trans nullportation as and nullen they need it, not nullen the time nulltables dictate nullin other nullords, they nullnt mobility on demand.POLITICAL CHANGEnulle negative impacts of transportation such as road con nullgestion, air pollution and increasing scarcity of space are upping the pressure on politicians to tanulle action, for enullmple, in the form of driving bans. nulldditional pres nullsure is coming from nenullmarnullet participants and mobil nullity concepts, some of nullich are already influencing leg nullislation nulluch as the German nullarnullharing Lanull.nulle discussed these trends and their possible impacts nullth representatives of municipal public transit compa nullnies, enullerts from the rail and mobility industries, and leading academics. nullsed on these discussions nulle de nullrived seven nulley strategies nullactions that nullll enable pub nulllic transit companies to achieve their goal of profitability.2. Technology shows the way Urban mobility is transformingPeoples expectations of mobility are changing fundamentally. They are increasingly calling for integrated systems.Making public transport self-sustainable Roland Berger Focus 5nulle seven strategies presented belonullrelate to three dis nulltinct areas of public transit companiesnullvalue chainnullvehi nullcle procurement, operationsnullraffic control, and sales and marnulleting. null should be noted that they cannot all be implemented in full right nonull null particular, selfnulldriving vehicles remain something for the medium term, nullile other levers can be applied immediately. Bnullll seven strategies have an impact on the profitabilnullity of local public transitnull honullever, that impact varies depending on the type of city and the size of its populanulltion. nullor the purpose of our calculations nulle distinguish betnulleen three types of citiesnullMetropolises: cities nullth populations of over a million null.g., nullrlin, nullmburgnullLarge cities: cities nullth populations of betnulleen 2null,nullnull and a million null.g., nullsseldorf, nullesbadennullMedium-sized cities: cities nullth populations of under 2null,nullnullnull.g., Regensburg, Giessennullnullor each of the three types of cities, nulle drenullup a profit and loss statement. nulle included municipal public trannullsit companies and, proportionally, regional rail transit nullnsofar as it plays a significant role in commuter and urban transit in the type of city in nulluestionnullnulle then analyzed honullthe seven strategies nullould affect the profit and loss statement for each type of city, particularly in terms of investments, running costs and potential additional revenue. nullre, nulle focused on the finan cial impact of nenulltechnology. nullote that the strate nullgies are intended to be used alongside traditional actions such as organizational change and cost optimization. CVehicle procurementSTRATEGY 1: FLEET AUTOMATIONnulle first strategy nulle propose is automating the enullsting bus fleet. nulle idea is that the public transit company replaces its buses nullth autonomous vehicles nullthout altering the routes covered. Ultimately, these vehicles function as nulleedersnullfor highnullrenulluency routes, nullich continue to be covered by subnullay trains. nullonventional streetcars can also be replaced by selfnulldriving models, nullile subnully trains are often already driverless today. nullo counter passengersnullreservations about driverless vehicles, they could initially have conductors on them. null the future, it might also be nullorth considering reduc nulling the size of vehicles to reflect the renulluirements of the route. nulleet automation nullould mean that public transit companies could not only save on staff numbers but also control their operating procedures, such as refuelnulling and nullshing vehicles, more efficiently and hence more costnulleffectively. nullreover, autonomous vehicles cause fenuller accidents and consume less energy thannull to their optimized driving style.nulle impact of this strategy nulllinulle the tnullo follonullng strategies in the area of vehicle procurement nullis seen first and foremost in operationsnull honullever, the underlynulling decision and the biggest investments need to tanulle place in the procurement phase. null goes nullthout saying that the full impact of this strategy nullll only materialize in the medium term. nullt that renulluires the conceptual foundations to be laid today.Requirements and impactnull Largenullcale investment in nenullvehicles and necessary infrastructure. null ever, vehicles can be replaced suc nullcessively once they reach the end of their useful lifenull nullvings on labor enullenses and cost efficiencies from 3. The road to profitability Seven strategies for public transit companies6 Roland Berger Focus Making public transport self-sustainableSTRATEGY 2:ELECTRIC BUSESnullblic transit companies replace their buses nullth elec nulltric vehicles and build the renulluired charging infrastrucnullture. nulley can also replace buses nullth vehicles that run on other nonnullossil fuels, such as hydrogen.Requirements and impactnull Using electric vehicles reduces energy consumption and manulles it possible to plan service and maintenulltighter control of operating procedures, lonuller maintenullnance costs, more energynullefficient driving and fenuller accidents. nulldditional costs for recruiting specialized personnelnull nullo nenullrevenuesnull nullost recovery ratio increase of three to five percentage points for all types of cities. Larger increases in metropnullolises and large cities than in mediumnullized cities due to scaling effectsB: Potential savings in all areas Seven strategies for boosting the profitability of public transit companies operationsSource: Roland BergerVEHICLE PROCUREMENTOPERATIONS/ TRAFFIC CONTROLSALES AND MARKETINGFleet automation Real-time dataRide-pooling (non-autonomous vehicles)Mobility-as-a-serviceCapacity managementElectric busesRobo-shuttlesMaking public transport self-sustainable Roland Berger Focus 7Requirements and impactnull Largenullcale investment in nenullvehicles and technologynull Lonuller labor costs as no drivers needed. nullrther sav nullings from fleet reduction and lonuller maintenance and repair costs. nulldditional costs for specialized personnullnel andnullr technology, such as appsnull nullnor increase in revenues as robonullhuttles feed highnullraffic routesnull nullost recovery ratio increase of four to five percentage points for all types of citiesOperations/traffic controlSTRATEGY 4:REAL-TIME DATAnullehicles transmit data in real time to the public transit companies. nulle biggest financial lever here is predictive maintenance, nullereby technical data is collected and used for spotting early on nullen components are becom nulling nullorn out or could soon need replacing. nullis helps avoid repairs and optimizes the planning of maintenullnance intervals and nenullvehicle purchases. null also re nullduces repair costs as nullornnullout components are identinullfied and replaced before they malfunction.nullata recorded in real time can also include nullournullneynullrelated data such as the number of