中国石油真实成本研究.pdf

2019 06 中国石油真实成本研究 A STUDY ON THE TRUE COST OF OIL IN CHINA 油控研究项目“石油真实成本”课题组中国石油消费总量控制和政策研究项目 ( 油控研究项目 ) 中国是世界第二大石油消费国和第一大石油进口国。石油是 中国社会经济发展的重要动力，但石油的生产和消费对生态 环境造成了严重破坏；同时，石油对外依存度上升也威胁着 中国的能源供应安全。为应对气候变化和减少环境污染，自 然资源保护协会（NRDC）和能源基金会中国（EF China）作为 协调单位，与国内外政府研究智库、科研院所和行业协会等 十余家有影响力的单位合作，于 2018 年 1 月共同启动了“中 国石油消费总量控制和政策研究” 项目 （简称油控研究项目） ， 促进石油资源安全、高效、绿色、低碳的可持续开发和利用， 助力中国跨越“石油时代”，早日进入新能源时代，为保障 能源安全、节约资源、保护环境和公众健康以及应对气候变 化等多重目标做出贡献。 自然资源保护协会（NRDC）是一家国际公益环保组织，拥有 约 300 万会员及支持者。NRDC 致力于保护地球环境，即保护 人类、动植物以及所有生灵所倚赖的生态系统。自 1970 年成 立以来，我们的环境律师、科学家和专家一直在为公众享有 清洁的水和空气以及健康的社区而努力。通过在科学、经济 和政策方面的专业知识，我们在亚洲、欧洲、拉美和北美等 地区与当地合作伙伴一起共同推进环境的综合治理与改善。 请登录网站了解更多详情 nrdc。 本报告由生态环境部环境规划院和中国水利水电科学院等研 究机构撰写。 生态环境部环境规划院 生态环境部环境规划院是开展国家生态文明、绿色发展、环 境战略规划和环境保护规划等研究工作的生态环境部直属事 业单位，旨在为国家环境政策研究与制定、环保规划编制和 环境风险管理等方面提供优质的决策服务。 中国水利水电科学研究院 中国水利水电科学研究院是从事水利水电科学研究的公益性研 究机构，旨在研究解决水利发展中战略性、全局性、前瞻性、 基础性的科学技术问题， 为国家和行业宏观决策提供科技支撑。 系列报告 石油开采利用的水资源外部成本研究 中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析 中国传统燃油汽车退出时间表研究3 中国石油真实成本研究 油控研究项目系列报告 中国石油真实成本研究 A STUDY ON THE TRUE COST OF OIL IN CHINA 报告主要撰写者 陈潇君 王丽娟 唐倩 郝春沣 潘小川 王战 武子婷 油控研究项目“石油真实成本”课题组 2019 年 06 月油控研究项目系列报告 4 首字母缩略词 CI Condence Intervals 置信区间 CO 2Carbon 二氧化碳 COD Chemical Oxygen Demand 化学需氧量 NO 2Nitrogen Dioxide 二氧化氮 NOx Nitrogen Oxides 氮氧化物 O 3Ozone 臭氧 OR Odds Ratio 比值比、优势比 PM 10 Particulate Matters under 10m 可吸入颗粒物 PM 2.5Particulate Matters under 2.5m 细颗粒物 RR Relative Risk 相对危险度 SO 2Sulfur Dioxide 二氧化硫 VOCs Volatile Organic Compounds 可挥发性有机物 VSL Value of a Statistical Life 统计生命价值5 中国石油真实成本研究 目录 Executive Summary 7 执行报告 17 前言 29 1. 石油利用的环境影响 30 1.1 石油开采与运输 1.2 石油加工 1.3 石油消费 1.4 石油开采、加工与消费的二氧化碳排放 2. 石油开采、加工与消费的环境外部成本核算 43 2.1 环境外部成本核算框架与方法 2.2 环境成本核算结果 3. 思考与建议 64 3.1 降低资源消耗与污染物排放量，从源头减少石油开采与 利用的环境影响油控研究项目系列报告 6 3.2 以经济手段促进石油的清洁化利用 3.3 促进公众参与 3.4 以科技发展促进环境保护 参考文献 677 中国石油真实成本研究 Executive Summary The production and consumption of oil caused a series of damages to the environment and public health in China. However, at present, the calculated costs of oil do not include all the resource and environmental costs, which results in the underestimation of oil production and utilization costs. In order to promote the internalization of oils external costs in China, this project tries to analyze the True Cost of Oil, which refers to the impacts of oil-production, oil-transportation, oil-processing, and oil-consumption on water, the atmosphere, soil, climate and health, and the monetized environmental external costs for the above four areas in China. 1. The Environmental impact of Oil Utilization 1.1 Oil-production and transportation Petroleum production and transportation impact regional water resources significantly. In terms of the distribution of petroleum and water resources in China, the eight main basins with concentrated distribution of oil resources often face water scarcity, as shown in Figure 1. Irregular production and utilization of petroleum may affect water conservation and sustainable utilization.油控研究项目系列报告 8 The natural water cycle can be disturbed by exploratory well drilling and water injection both before and during petroleum extraction, which consumes large quantities of water, discharges wastewater, and pollutes surface water, soil and groundwater with petroleum leakage, indirectly causing ecological degradation. In the oil industry, the most serious pollution is caused by the leakage of crude oil and of water-based drilling fluids. The oil production process also produces volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM) and other atmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions, which are the important precursors of PM2.5 and O3. In 2015, the emissions of VOCs, SO2, NOx, PM, and CO2 in Chinas petroleum exploration industry were 122 thousand tons, 29 thousand tons, 28 thousand tons, 9 thousand tons and 2.21 million tons respectively. Crude oil is transported mainly via shipping and pipelines, including railways and highways. Marine oil spill accidents bring huge economic loss to fisheries, aquaculture, coastal tourism, marine transportation, and other industries, and causes abnormal changes in the marine ecosystem. China releases about 1.28 million tons of oil into the sea every year (including industrial emissions, oil spills from ships, oil spills from accidents, leakage from undersea oil fields and blowout accidents). Figure 1 Petroleum production and water resources comparison by provinces in China9 中国石油真实成本研究 1.2 Oil-processing The petroleum processing, coking, and nuclear fuel processing industries, as well as the manufacturing of raw chemical materials and chemical products, which are closely related to oil consumption, are all high-water-consuming industries. According to the Second National Economic Survey in 2008, in the above-mentioned industries water intake reached 6.76 billion cubic meters, accounting for 10.0% of total water use. The manufacturing of raw chemical materials and chemical products accounted for 7.1%, oil processing, coking, and the processing of nuclear fuel accounted for 1.5%, and the oil and gas exploration industry accounted for 1.3%. These industries ranked second, tenth and twelfth respectively in water intake by industrial enterprises above a designated size, as shown in Figure 2. (The production and supply industry for electric power and heating ranked first and is not listed)3 reached 6.76 billion cubic meters, accounting for 10.0% of total water use. The manufacturing of raw chemical materials and chemical products accounted for 7.1%, oil processing, coking, and the processing of nuclear fuel accounted for 1.5%, and the oil and gas exploration industry accounted for 1.3%. These industries ranked second, tenth and twelfth respectively in water intake by industrial enterprises above a designated size, as shown in Figure 2. Figure 2 Proportion of water intake of industrial enterprises above a designated size by industry (The production and supply industry for electric power and heating ranked first and is not listed) Table 1 Discharge quantity of pollutants in industrial wastewater of oil-related industries and ranking among key investigation industries Industry Oil processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry Manufacturing industry of chemical raw materials and chemical products Discharge quantity （t ） Ranking Discharge quantity （t ） Ranking COD - - 34.6 2 Ammonia 1.5 3 5.8 1 Petroleum 2738 1 2086 2 Volatile Phenol 790.8 1 85 2 Cyanid 58 1 40 2 Note: data source from China Environmental Status （2015 ） , and refers to temporary data missing. 化学原料及 黑色金属冶炼及压 造纸及纸制品业 纺织业 煤炭开采和洗选业 非金属矿物制品业 农副食品加工业 有色金属冶 石油加工、炼 通信设备、计算机 石油和天然 气开采业 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 取 水量占比 / % Proportion of water intake of industrial enterprises above designated size by industry (the production and supply industry of electric power and heating power ranking the first is not listed) Proportion of water intake/% Manufacturing industry of chemical raw materials and chemical products Textile industry Processing industry of ferrous metal smelting and rolling Papermaking and paper products industry Coal mining and w ashing industry Nonmetallic mineral products industry Farm and sideline food processing industry Processing industry of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling Oil processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry Oil and natural gas extraction industry Communication equipment, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry Figure 2 Proportion of water intake of industrial enterprises above a designated size by industry油控研究项目系列报告 10 Table 1 Discharge quantity of pollutants in industrial wastewater of oil-related industries and ranking among key investigation industriesIndustry Oil processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry Manufacturing industry of chemical raw materials and chemical products Discharge quantity （t ） Ranking Discharge quantity （t ） Ranking COD - - 34.6 2 Ammonia 1.5 3 5.8 1 Petroleum 2738 1 2086 2 Volatile Phenol 790.8 1 85 2 Cyanid 58 1 40 2 Note: data source from China Environmental Status（2015）, and refers to temporary data missing. Petroleum processing, coking, nuclear fuel processing 1 , and raw chemical materials and chemical product manufacturing are all also important sources of atmospheric pollutants. In 2015, the emissions of VOCs, SO 2 , NOx, PM and CO2 in the petroleum processing industry were 1.7 million tons, 0.2 million tons, 0.2 million tons, 84 thousand tons and 190 million tons respectively. In the process of petroleum processing, there are a variety of industrial solid wastes, including waste catalysts, waste adsorbents, waste ceramic balls, etc., as well as coal ash slag and domestic garbage generated by power stations. The petroleum processing industry produces 370 million tons of general industrial solid waste, accounting for 11.8% of total industrial output. The output of hazardous waste was 9.15 million tons, accounting for 23.0% of the total output of industrial hazardous waste. 1.3 Oil-consumption Chinas refined oil products (including gasoline, kerosene, and diesel) account for about 53% of total oil consumption, used mainly for motor vehicles and non-road mobile machineries. The exhaust emitted by mobile sourceS 2 contains hundreds of different pollutants, including NOx, VOCs, PM, hydrocarbons, etc., and is an important precursor 1 Industrial classication for national economic activities 2 Mobile sources include motor vehicles and non-road mobile machineries such as construction machinery, agricultural machinery, small general machinery, diesel generator sets, ships, railway diesel locomotives, and aircraft.11 中国石油真实成本研究 forPM 2.5and O 3 . The health effects of air pollution are characterized by the number of premature deaths caused by IHD, stroke, COPD and LC. In 2015, the emissions of NOx, VOCs, PM, SO 2and CO 2from mobile sources were 11.5 million tons, 4.9 million tons, 1.02 million tons, 0.8 million tons and 820 million tons respectively. The emissions of NOx, PM, VOCs, SO 2and CO 2from mobile sources (including motor vehicles and non-road mobile machinery) accounted for 98.2%, 72.6%, 72.6%, 75.9% and 80.9% of the emissions of air pollutants from oil-related industries, respectively. An air quality model was used to simulate the effects of atmospheric pollutant emissions from oil-related industries on the average annual concentration of PM 2.5 . The results showed that, in 2015, petroleum-related industries accounted for 10.9% of the national PM 2.5concentration, with transportation accounting for 9.8% and the petrochemical industry accounting for 1.1%. Plastics are one of the main products of the petroleum industry. According to relevant research reports, plastic production accounts for 6% of total oil consumption, and its production, consumption, and disposal has negative environmental impacts. Some plastics can be recycled, but most of them are incinerated, disposed of in landfills, or otherwise discarded. Incinerated plastics can result in significant pollution, landfills can destroy soil structure and hinder plant growth, and plastics discarded in the sea can harm marine ecology and affect human health. 2. The External Environmental Costs of Oil 2.1 Scope of environmental cost accounting In the oil-producing and processing sectors, the main environmental costs to consider are water consumption, water pollution, soil pollution, air pollutant emissions, solid waste discharge and others (due to the difficulty of obtaining data, the environmental impacts of accidents, for example petrochemical and chemical explosions, were not considered). In the oil transportation sector, the main costs are from tanker transportation accidents, offshore oil exploration accidents, and other marine leakage cleaning. Marine ecological restoration costs, ecological loss costs during the recovery period, and other costs are not considered (the cost of onshore oil spill management was not calculated due to low cost and the difficulty of obtaining data). In the oil- consumption sector, the main costs are from the impacts of mobile source emissions on human health and the impacts of plastic pollution on marine ecosystems, plastic recycling, incineration, disposal, landfill, etc. on the atmosphere, water, soil, etc. Due to the lack of reliable data on exposure-response relationships and related statistical data on the health effects of water pollution from oil usage, this study has not yet calculated the value of health losses due to water pollution.12 Figure 3 External environmental cost accounting indicators Environmental cost of oil transportation Environmental cost of oil consumption Water resources Pollution Offshoreoil spill pollution Onshore oil spill pollution Water pollution Air pollution Soil pollution Solid waste Water resources Water resources Pollution Water pollution Air pollution Solid waste Water resources Plasticpollution Health oundwater over exploitation anti ty of wastewater discharge Pollution area around oil wells anti ty of solid wastes oundwater over exploitation anti ty of wastewater discharge anti ty of solid wastes Plastic discharge quantity Climate change damage Climate change damage Climate change damage Shadow price of water resources Wastewater treatment cost Virtual disposal cost of pollutants Cost of deep soil remediation Virtual disposal cost of solid wastes Shadow price of water resources Wastewater treatment cost Virtual disposal cost of pollutants Virtual disposal cost of solid wastes Marine, atmosphere, water and soil Ecological Effects Accounting of physical quantity Premature deaths Value of statistical life Oil leak on land eenhous e gas eenhous e gas eenhous e gas Leakage quantity of oil tanker, offshore oil exploitation accident and ect . Cleaning cost of oil spill Cleaning cost of oil spill (not included) antity of CO 2discharge antity of CO 2discharge antity of CO 2discharge SO 2 , NOx, PM and VOCs emissions SO 2 , NOx, PM and VOCs emissions antity of CO 2discharge Climate change damage Frame- work of the Envi- ronmen- tal Costs of Oil Envi- ron- mental cost of oil pro- cessing Environ- mental cost of oil ex- ploita- tion Accounting of value quantity中国石油真实成本研究 2.2 The calculation of oil external environmental costs The accounting results show that if the impact of oil usage on the climate is not considered, the 2015 external environmental cost was 347 yuan / ton of oil. When taking into account the impact of oil usage on the climate, the external environmental cost was 507 yuan / ton of oil. Table 2 External environmental costs of oilNote1 Section Category Indicator Accounting result (yuan/ ton)Note2 Oil