2019年亚洲基础设施融资（英文版）.pdf

1 ASIAN INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE 2019 Bridging Borders: Infrastructure to Connect Asia and Beyond With sections written by:I It gives me great pleasure to launch the first issue of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Banks (AIIB) publication: Bridging Borders: Infrastructure to Connect Asia and Beyond. The Asian region is one of the most dynamic and productive on Earth, but it is held back from realizing its full potential by huge constraints in crucial infrastructure caused by a lack of investment. 2018 also marked the 20th anniversary of the Asian Financial Crisis. Many lessons have been learned, particularly with regard to macroeconomic prudence, including the need for sound fiscal rules and adequate reserves. Recently, increased attention has focused on the issue of how investment had fallen in many Asian economies in the years after the crisis, contributing to the infrastructure gap we see today. In 2016, AIIB was created to address this infrastructure gap, and with the aim of fostering greater regional and global integration through connectivity. We are fully aware that Asias sustained development can only be achieved through greater connectivity with the rest of the world. There are tremendous opportunities for infrastructure to align with changes in trade and economic geography. For example, when it comes to renewable energy trade, the match between supply and demand may well extend beyond artificial boundaries. Similarly, many connectivity infrastructure projects would only make economic sense if linked up as a network to other countries and regions. At AIIB, we work to promote sustainable economic and social development by investing in infrastructure and other productive sectors in our members, both in Asia and beyond. Sustaining high-quality infrastructure for improved economic, social and environmental outcomes is a global effort which AIIB is part of. Since its inception in January 2016, AIIB has provided financing in loans and other lending modalities, with commitments totaling close to USD7 .5 billion (as of the end of 2018), including a number of projects outside Asia, and we hope to approve projects worth another USD4 billion in 2019. While public spending still provides the bulk of needed infrastructure investments, fiscal constraints and debt sustainability considerations limit the extension of public finance. As it has long been recognized, the key is to ignite the “animal spirits” of private sector investors into infrastructure development. T o do so, we need to build and sustain the set of supportive conditions. This is also clear in our strategy to mobilize private capital, approved by our Board of Directors in 2018. ForewordII As part of this effort, we commissioned The Economist Intelligence Unit as our key partner to collate data and analyze developments in the infrastructure market in Asia. This is not a one-off exercise intended to address every issue in the large and diverse infrastructure space. Nor is it intended to be heavy with country-specific policy prescriptions. Rather, by providing an assessment of project financing and highlighting key topical issues, this publication will hopefully contribute to the collective understanding of the infrastructure financing market in Asia and beyond. AIIB will sustain a patient effort to grow and shape this market, including providing a regular update of the market as this report aims to do. The team has also had the privilege of receiving valuable data and insights from other partners and stakeholders within the investment community. Though this is an AIIB publication, we have also incorporated the inputs of various industry experts. We believe that such a collaborative effort can strengthen the quality of this report and lead to greater shared understanding. Let me turn to the short-term challenges. We do see risks factors ahead, with a slowing global economy, higher borrowing costs and geopolitical tensions conflating and leading to greater uncertainty. Our staff assessment is that there has yet to be a significant breakthrough in the mobilization of private capital for infrastructure. Structural issues around bankability, coupled with macroeconomic uncertainty which is all too palpable now, could further hold back private sector participation. There are no quick fixes to these issues. But it is worth emphasizing that multilateral development banks (including AIIB) play a critical role to help countries sustain a higher level of infrastructure investment for the long term through this challenging period. I hope you will find it an interesting report that raises the right issues for discussion. We at AIIB will work with the industry and development community to address near- and longer-term infrastructure challenges in Asia and beyond. Jin Liqun President, Asian Infrastructure Investment BankIII Mobilizing private capital is not a new concept. Back in 2015, the Development Committee Discussion Note, prepared jointly by various multilateral institutions, already set out the “From Billions to Trillions” agenda of mobilizing private capital for development. Various MDBs have also made mobilizing private capital a priority. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) emphasizes private participation in infrastructure and capital market development in its private sector operations framework. The World Bank takes an approach of “Maximizing Finance for Development” to systematically leverage all sources of finance. It recently adopted the “cascade framework” that prioritizes private solutions (including finance) wherever possible, before public financing is considered. AIIB is not unique in its priority to mobilize private capital. Y et unlike other MDBs, AIIB has a more focused mandate on infrastructure project financing and does not offer concessionary financing. Like others, AIIB will try to develop a high degree of flexibility in financing through various instruments. Its strategy on mobilizing private capital for infrastructure (2018) spells out its vision as a bank that will help develop emerging market infrastructure as an asset class. The first step toward creating infrastructure as an asset class for private sector investors would be to increase the level of data quality to facilitate a high-quality brainstorming around key issues, for international comparisons, and to help market participants make informed financing decisions. This report, which AIIB has prepared with The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) and with inputs from industry experts, aims to contribute toward this objective. For the purposes of this report, infrastructure covers, as conventionally understood, power, transport, renewables, water and telecommunications. Other sectors, which are not the key focus of this report but represented as part of data source, include oil and gas, mining, social and defense, and multiple sectors. The main datasets used for the study come from IJGlobal and Thomson Reuters. For IJGlobal, the dataset is mainly focused on private sector transactions, including public-private partnerships (PPPs) and infrastructure development through state-owned enterprises that have some market participation. For Thomson Reuters, the dataset covers bank financing in the syndicated loan market. T aken together, the report thus focuses on the project financing in the market rather than infrastructure spending from purely fiscal As a 21st-century multilateral development bank (MDB), AIIB was created with a specific mandate: to provide development finance in infrastructure and other productive sectors. As it is well-documented already, the infrastructure funding requirements in Asia are large. Much of the funding would continue to come from public resources, through better domestic revenue mobilization, cost recovery and better prioritization of fiscal resources. Y et it is also very clear that more private sector financing is required. Hence, from the outset, AIIB has been very keen to focus its resources in the infrastructure project financing market, not only to provide financing but also to help further infrastructure as an asset class to crowd in private capital. IntroductionIV resources (which still provide for the majority of infrastructure investments). This focus on the still relatively small segment of market project finance is in line with AIIBs priority of mobilizing private capital into infrastructure. The level of transactions also differs from market to market not only just due to aggregate spending on infrastructure but also on how much is captured as market transactions. For this report, the definition of Asia will include Asia-Pacific (covering Australasia, T urkey as well as Russia), consistent with AIIBs regional membership. In this first report, eight markets will be given specific focus given their large economic sizes and infrastructure needs. In developing this report, more than 40 industry experts were consulted over the course of six months. The team has also created benchmarks in three areasinfrastructure financing volume, infrastructure financing cost and project construction cost (starting with road projects)to provide a snapshot of the health and direction of the project financing market. AIIB will gradually deepen this data collection process in the coming years and build this into an information repository that can be shared with the community. The first part of this report provides an assessment of the near- to medium-term state of the project financing market, with a focus on identifying the implications arising from the global economy. The assessment takes into consideration global economic developments (assessed by various international organizations) and data trends from various sources. The key takeaway is that infrastructure project financing is at an inflection point. A slowing global economy, higher cost of capital, currency volatility and geopolitical tensions will mean that governments have to balance between macroeconomic stability and sustaining a high level of infrastructure investment to meet growing needs. Trade frictions and rising nationalism is also highlighted as a risk factor that could affect infrastructure investments. Notwithstanding the fact that discussions around near-term prospects would center around global macroeconomic development and trade frictions, it is clear that in the medium to long term, technology, economic growth and finance will reshape the way infrastructure is funded and developed. The second part of this report includes six articles that explore some of these structural and longer-term issues. In this first publication, special focus is given to cross-border connectivity, which is itself also not a new agenda. Expanding regional connectivity and integration is core to AIIB, as spelled out in its Articles of Agreement. Many multilateral institutions and governments have also promoted various regional connectivity initiatives. Y et at this time of rising trade frictions and populist sentiments against globalization, it is even more important to catch sight of the many opportunities that are either present or will come along for cross-border infrastructure crucial for countries to sustain trade and income growth. Entitled “Bridging Borders: Infrastructure to Connect Asia and Beyond,” the articles consider how investing in infrastructure connects markets and people. They are based on research conducted by The EIU, and research by the staff of AIIB, with inputs from stakeholders and industry professionals: Growth belts: mapping an overland future for Asian trade Latin America and Asia trade: a future beyond commodities manufactures The green imperative: developing interconnected low-carbon power networks in Asia Airports, airlines and visas: factors shaping cross-border tourism Infrastructure 3.0: how new technologies will facilitate intra-Asian trade and integration Connectivity, income growth and poverty reduction Last but not least, the report presents a methodology for comparing road construction costs in various economies in Asia. This will be improved and expanded in the future to enhance understanding of the cost drivers for various infrastructure types. Infrastructure and its impact on trade will be an exciting space for AIIB, policy- makers and industry players for many years to come, and we look forward to continuing the conversation beyond this first publication.V Acknowledgments The analysis presented in this report is based on in-depth interviews with key stakeholders in infrastructure financing and construction, conducted between August and October 2018. Additional insights and data were obtained from associations, government agencies and private sector stakeholders based in several of the focus countries. Our thanks are due to the following individuals and organizations (listed alphabetically by surname), as well as other experts who prefer to remain anonymous: Adolfo Dindo Abueg Co-Head, Project Finance, Asia Pacific, Korea Development Bank Milind Agrawal Principal, Global Infrastructure Partners India Engr. Aftabuddin Ahmed President, Bangladesh Association of Construction Industry Ashraf Ahmed Chief Executive Officer, Riverstone Capital Limited Md. Faruque Ahmed Director General (Programming & Investment Promotion), Public Private Partnership Authority, Prime Ministers Office, Bangladesh Zia Azeez Deputy Head of Asia, Global Structured Finance, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation Surya Bagchi Global Head, Project & Export Finance, Corporate Finance, Standard Chartered Alexander Boutovski Deputy General Director for Strategic Business Development, AO Institute Stroyproekt James Cameron Managing Director, Co-Head of Infrastructure and Real Estate Group, Asia Pacific, HSBC Raghav Chandra Former Chairman, National Highways Authority of IndiaVI Chong Teck Wei Managing Director and Head of Project Finance, Asian Investment Banking Division, MUFG Bank Abhishek Dangra Director, Infrastructure Sector Lead: South and Southeast Asia, Standard & Poors Aled Davies Partner, Milbank, T weed, Hadley & McCloy Christian Eigen-Zucchi World Bank Programme Leader, Equitable Growth Finance & Institutions, World Bank Group M. Siddiq Essa President, Association of Consulting Engineers Pakistan (ACEP) Hector Florento Finance Director and Senior Advisor, CFP Transaction Advisors Luca Fontana Senior Vice President, Construction Services Asia-Pacific, AECOM Pratap Giri Adjunct Faculty Member, Indian Institute of ManagementBangalore (Project and Infrastructure Financing) Iftikhar ul Haq Managing Director, Engineering General Consultants EGC (Pvt) Ltd, Pakistan Tetsunari Iida Chairperson, Institute for Sustainable