2019亚洲商业展望（英文版）.pdf

Asia Business Outlook Survey 2019 The world leader in global business intelligenceThe Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years experience in helping businesses, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact.EIU subscription servicesThe worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. We specialise in: Country Analysis: Access to regular, detailed country-specific economic and political forecasts, as well as assessments of the business and regulatory environments in different markets. Risk Analysis: Our risk services identify actual and potential threats around the world and help our clients understand the implications for their organisations. Industry Analysis: Five year forecasts, analysis of key themes and news analysis for six key industries in 60 major economies. These forecasts are based on the latest data and in-depth analysis of industry trends.EIU ConsultingEIU Consulting is a bespoke service designed to provide solutions specific to our customers needs. We specialise in these key sectors: Consumer: Providing data-driven solutions for consumer-facing industries, our management consulting firm, EIU Canback, helps clients to enter new markets and deliver greater success in current markets. Find out more at: eiu/consumer Healthcare: Together with our two specialised consultancies, Bazian and Clearstate, The EIU helps healthcare organisations build and maintain successful and sustainable businesses across the healthcare ecosystem. Find out more at: eiu/healthcare Public Policy: Trusted by the sectors most influential stakeholders, our global public policy practice provides evidence-based research for policy-makers and stakeholders seeking clear and measurable outcomes. Find out more at: eiu/publicpolicyThe Economist Corporate NetworkThe Economist Corporate Network (ECN) is The Economist Groups advisory service for organisational leaders seeking to better understand the economic and business environments of global markets. Delivering independent, thought-provoking content, ECN provides clients with the knowledge, insight, and interaction that support better-informed strategies and decisions. The Network is part of The Economist Intelligence Unit and is led by experts with in-depth understanding of the geographies and markets they oversee. The Networks membership-based operations cover Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. Through a distinctive blend of interactive conferences, specially designed events, C-suite discussions, member briefings, and high-calibre research, The Economist Corporate Network delivers a range of macro (global, regional, national, and territorial) as well as industry-focused analysis on prevailing conditions and forecast trends.Asia Business Outlook Survey 20191 The Economist Corporate Network 2019AcknowledgementsThe 2019 Asia Business Outlook Survey is a publication of The Economist Corporate Network (ECN). It reports on and analyses the findings from ECNs annual survey of Asian-based executives about their current and anticipated business operating environments. ECN gratefully acknowledges the participation of all survey respondents who took time to anonymously contribute their views. Robert Koepp, director of ECN in Hong Kong, modeled survey results and wrote the report with the assistance of Tom McHale. Herman Warren, director of ECN Africa, provided helpful editorial comments. Gaddi Tam, graphic artist at The Economist Intelligence Unit in Hong Kong, managed report graphics and typesetting.January 2019 2019 The Economist Corporate Network. All rights reserved. All information in this report is verified to the best of the authors and the publishers ability. However, The Economist Corporate Network does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Corporate Network.2 The Economist Corporate Network 2019Asia Business Outlook Survey 2019Contents3Executive Summary Key findings from this years survey5Introduction Informed views about what lies ahead for businesses in Asia6Revenue outlook Expectations resilient despite trade headwinds and market uncertainties10US-China trade war Tough on economies but less so on industries13Belt-Road Initiative Favourable views despite growing controversies 15Risky business The impact of risk on local business conditions 18Where the money is The shift of corporate revenues from Asia continues 19Regional profitability Executives expect overall improvement in operating margins 21Investing in Asia How ambitions are being matched with money25Regional hubs How Asian cities rate as bases for regional operations APPENDIX28Survey firmographicsAsia Business Outlook Survey 20193 The Economist Corporate Network 2019Executive summary Key findings from this years survey Despite ongoing trade frictions and market uncertainties, respondents in this years survey have maintained a relatively stable and optimistic view on revenue expectations for 2019. South-east Asia, Greater China and India attracted the highest expectations for sales growth, with 83.3%, 72.4% and 70.2% of respondents respectively expecting growth in these markets. Assessing the fallout from the US-China trade war, only a slight majority, 51.3%, of respondents stated that they expect their industry in Asia to be negatively affected in 2019. Respondents see the mainland Chinese economy and Hong Kong as the most vulnerable to the trade war while South-east Asia and India as most likely to benefit. Evaluating Chinas signature Belt-Road Initiative, over 80% of polled executives view the initiative favourably. This endorsement is qualified as most see only “some benefits” or only “very limited benefits” for the regions economies. Asia-based business executives are feeling notably pessimistic about prospects for the way governments will be managing political and economic risks in China, Hong Kong, Myanmar and the Philippines. However, respondents expressed confidence for how the governments of Vietnam, India, Singapore and Malaysia are likely to handle such risks. Looking beyond 2019 and out to 2021, assessments on government responses to risk turn much brighter. India and Vietnam attract the highest level of optimism. Consistent with previous surveys, 2019 survey participants expect their firms global revenues increasingly to be generated in Asia. The greatest 4 The Economist Corporate Network 2019Asia Business Outlook Survey 2019concentration of responses peaks at expectations for up to 45% of global revenues to come from Asia by 2023. Another encouraging indicator from this years survey is that participants overall predict a drop in very low and negative operating profit margins and an increase in higher levels of profit, especially within the 6-20% margin range. A majority of respondents reported that their companies are investing at the right rate to achieve market objectives in Asia. The most respondents mentioned China as the destination for increased investment followed by India and Indonesia. Myanmar earns the dubious distinction of being the most shunned economy for investing in 2019. Respondents consider Singapore and Shanghai as best for improvements in their suitability as regional hubs for Asia operations. They rank Hong Kong and Beijing as the worst for deteriorating suitability. In evaluating the reasons a company would leave an Asian city or reduce headcount, the most cited issues are property costs, pollution, political and policy uncertainty, congestion and lack or cost of talent. Cities need to focus on such areas if they want to increase their appeal as bases for corporate operations.Asia Business Outlook Survey 20195 The Economist Corporate Network 2019Introduction Informed views about what lies ahead for businesses in AsiaThis report summarises and analyses findings from The Economist Corporate Networks Asia Business Outlook Survey conducted at the end of 2018. It provides forward-looking perspectives on what businesses can expect for Asia in 2019.A total of 235 senior executives participated in this years survey. Respondents are active throughout Greater China, India, Japan, South Korea, South-east Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Their scope of business spans 15 industries. Some 40% manage operations at Asia-headquartered companies, with the rest at firms headquartered mainly in Western countries. Regardless of corporate domicile, all survey respondents are based inside Asia and understand the area from direct experience.Respondents participated in the survey with complete anonymity. This allowed for frank, unencumbered input from leaders with first-hand knowledge about doing business in the fastest-growing region of the global economy. Moreover, although emphasising the outlook for 2019, parts of the surveys time line extend further, allowing readers to glean views that span both near- and long-term horizons. As with everything we do at ECN, this 2019 installment of the Asia Business Outlook Survey report aims to enhance organisational leaders grasp of challenging economic and business topics that impact the bottom line. 6 The Economist Corporate Network 2019Asia Business Outlook Survey 2019Revenue outlookExpectations resilient despite trade headwinds and market uncertaintiesExecutives participating in this years Asia Business Outlook Survey havedespite the trade frictions and market uncertainties that characterised the closing months of 2018maintained a relatively stable and optimistic view for what awaits in 2019. Slightly over half (54%) of surveyed executives stated that their expectations for revenue growth have improved, similar to findings in three of the surveys conducted over the previous five years. Compared to how executives were feeling at the end of 2015, the level of optimism heading into 2019 is in fact a noticeable improvement. The only time where a greater percentage of executives expressed improved expectations for the coming year was at the end of 2017. So overall the sentiment for higher revenues in 2019 is similar to three of the previous five years reports, better than one and lower than one. The 12% of executives concerned about declining revenues for 2019 also roughly tracks with previous surveys. Only when heading into 2016 did a significantly greater percentage of respondents record lowered expectations for growth. 020406080100End of 2018End of 2017End of 2016End of 2015End of 2014End of 2013Over the current year (2018), have your firms expectations for revenue growth in Asia improved, declined or stayed the same? (respondents surveyed)Source: The Economist Corporate Network.Our expectationshave declinedOur expectationsare unchangedOur expectationshave improved12%41%47%11%35%54%30%33%37%14%33%53%9%28%63%12%34%54%Asia Business Outlook Survey 20197 The Economist Corporate Network 2019MAPPING GROWTH OUTLOOKS As with previous surveys, South-east Asia, Greater China and India have attracted the highest expectations for sales growth among Asias subregions. For South-east Asia, 83.3% of respondents expect revenue growth in 2019, virtually the same figure as in 2018. South-east Asia also leads with the greatest proportion of executives expecting double-digit growth. Executives surveyed with expectations for any decline in sales in South-east Asia also dropped, from 4.2% in 2018 to 2.9% for 2019. The ASEAN marketplace is the clear leader for anticipated growth in 2019.Indias market prospects led 72.4% of survey participants to state that they expect revenue growth in 2019. This makes India the second-best economy for its overall outlook. India also scores well for a marked decrease in those expecting sales declines. Last year over 7% of respondents were prepared for a drop in sales whereas for 2019 less than 1% are. None expect a decline in sales above 5%, the only economy in this years survey to register absolutely no such pessimism. The one finding that notably reflects less positively on Indias outlook is that the percentage of those expecting company sales growth has declined somewhat over last year. A total of about 77% of executives surveyed last year expected rising revenues in the India market compared to about 72% for 2019. Defying any assumptions that the US-China trade war would severely dampen the revenue outlook for operations in the Chinese mainland, some 35% of surveyed executives confirmed that they look forward to revenue growth of 10% or higher in China. In fact, the overall revenue outlook for China has slightly over 70% anticipating positive growth of some kind. Yet some 7% also are anticipating revenue declines. China moreover registers the greatest percentage of executives bracing for revenue drops exceeding 5%.Along these lines another surprising finding for 2019 is that executives interviewed were rather upbeat on Hong Kongs prospects despite its exposure to spillover effects from the US-China trade war. Exactly 55.1% of respondents expected to see revenue up for their company in Hong Kong in 2019, a slight uptick from the 54.4% expecting growth in 2018. Yet Hong Kong also has the dubious distinction of registering the highest proportion, about 8%, of executives expecting a revenue downturn in 2019. For North Asia, positive growth outlooks for Japan and South Korea were recorded by 51.2% and 56.2% of surveyed executives respectively. Along with Hong Kong, expectations for these mature East Asian economies are squeezed at the upper bands of growth. Those expecting double digit revenue growth for Hong Kong 8 The Economist Corporate Network 2019Asia Business Outlook Survey 2019are only 22.6%, for Japan 19.6%, and South Korea 17.7%. As with previous surveys, compared with other economies more participating executives expect sales declines for Japan and South Korea. CHINAGrowth: 70.2%Decline: 7.3%INDIAGrowth: 72.4%Decline: 0.8%