2018全球宜居城市调查报告（英文版）.pdf

A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit The Global Liveability Index 2018 A free overviewThe world leader in global business intelligence The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years experience in helping businesses, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact. EIU subscription services The worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. 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Delivering independent, thought-provoking content, ECN provides clients with the knowledge, insight, and interaction that support better-informed strategies and decisions. The Network is part of The Economist Intelligence Unit and is led by experts with in-depth understanding of the geographies and markets they oversee. The Networks membership-based operations cover Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. Through a distinctive blend of interactive conferences, specially designed events, C-suite discussions, member briefings, and high-calibre research, The Economist Corporate Network delivers a range of macro (global, regional, national, and territorial) as well as industry-focused analysis on prevailing conditions and forecast trends.THE GLOBAL LIVEABILITY INDEX 2018 A FREE OVERVIEW The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 1 The findings of the latest liveability survey 2 After years of destabilisation, a return to relative global stability 2 Civil war and terrorism in the worst performing cities have been globally destabilising 5 The top and bottom ten cities 5 About The Economist Intelligence Units liveability survey 7 How the rating works 7 The suggested liveability scale 7 How the rating is calculated 7 ContentsTHE GLOBAL LIVEABILITY INDEX 2018 A FREE OVERVIEW The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 2 The findings of the latest liveability survey After years of destabilisation, a return to relative global stability For the first time in this surveys history, Austrias capital, Vienna, ranks as the most liveable of the 140 cities surveyed by The Economist Intelligence Unit. A long-running contender to the title, Vienna has succeeded in displacing Melbourne from the top spot, ending a record seven consecutive years at the head of the survey for the Australian city. Although both Melbourne and Vienna have registered improvements in liveability over the last six months, increases in Viennas ratings, particularly in the stability category, have been enough for the city to overtake Melbourne. The two cities are now separated by 0.7 of a percentage point, with Vienna scoring a near-ideal 99.1 out of 100 and Melbourne scoring 98.4. Two other Australian cities feature in the top-ranked places: Sydney (5th) and Adelaide (10th), while only one other European city made the top ten. This is Copenhagen in Denmark, in 9th place, after its score increased by 3.3 percentage points since the last survey cycle. The rest of the top-ranked cities are split between Japan (Osaka in 3rd place and Tokyo in joint 7th, alongside Toronto) and Canada (Calgary in 4th, and Vancouver and Toronto in 6th and 7th respectively). Osaka stands out especially, having climbed six positions, to third place, over the past six months, closing the gap with Melbourne. It is now separated from the former top-ranked city by a mere 0.7 of a percentage point. Osakas improvements in scores for quality and availability of public transportation, as well as a consistent decline in crime rates, have contributed to higher ratings in the infrastructure and stability categories respectively. Upwards movement in the top ranked cities is a reflection of improvements seen in stability and safety across most regions in the past year. Whereas in the past, cities in Europe have been affected by the spreading perceived threat of terrorism in the region, which caused heightened security measures, the past six months have seen a return to normalcy. Y et, during this period, 116 cities of the 140 surveyed have experienced changes in their ranking position. This rises to 128 cities when looking at changes over the past year. It must be noted that ranking movements do not necessarily arise from a change in liveability in the cities themselves, but reflect how cities compare with one another. Although four cities have fallen from the top ten over the past yearAuckland (from 8th to 12th), Perth (from 7th to 14th), Helsinki (from 9th to 16th) and Hamburg (from 10th to 18th)none of these have seen a fall in their overall scores during this period. New Zealands Auckland has in fact registered a minor improvement. Changes in liveability elsewhere can therefore have a significant impact on the rankings of individual cities. Of the 140 surveyed cities, 49% registered negative changes in their overall liveability rank in the past six months and 34% experienced positive movements (the rest did not record any change). Y et, despite the total number of negative movements outweighing the positive ones, the rankings show that overall liveability across all cities surveyed increased by 0.7% in the past six months and 0.9% in the past year. Improvements were recorded across all five categories measuredinfrastructure, stability, education, healthcare, and culture and environmentbut especially in stability, which increased by 2.5% overall. THE GLOBAL LIVEABILITY INDEX 2018 A FREE OVERVIEW The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 3 This trend reflects positive developments in this category, despite threats of terrorism and unrest that cities around the world continue to grapple with. Only ten cities have registered a decline in their liveability ratings over the past six months, largely reflecting an impact on cultural and environmental indicators. The prolonged period of relative stability has resulted in the stabilisation of terrorism threat scores in several cities, especially in Western Europe. The only cities that have seen a fall in their stability indicators over the past six months are Abu Dhabi (71st) and Dubai (69th) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Colombo (130th) in Sri Lanka and Warsaw (65th) in Poland. In Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the threat of military conflict has increased owing to the UAEs recent interventions extending its military reach in Y emen and Somalia. The UAEs deployment of armed forces in Y emen, as well as political hostility with Iran, continue to pose a threat in the country and the region. Sri Lankas declaration of a temporary nationwide state of emergency in March, following clashes between Sinhalese Buddhist and T amil Muslim communities, impacted Colombos civil unrest score. The threat of civil unrest also increased in Warsaw as an estimated 60,000 people joined a nationalist march on the occasion of Polands Independence Day in November 2017. Nevertheless, these changes have caused a decline in the overall stability rating only in Colombos case. Warsaw, for instance, has experienced a decline in the threat of terrorism to counteract the fall in the civil unrest score, while Abu Dhabi and Dubai saw improvements in their crime and civil unrest ratings. The impact of improving stability is most apparent when a five-year view of the global average scores is taken. Overall, the global average liveability score has increased by 0.15%, to 75.7%, over the past five years, while the average stability rating has increased by 1.3%. Although the threat of terrorism has indeed caused a decline in liveability over a longer periodthe global average liveability score has decreased by 0.4% in the past decadean improvement in scores over the past five years suggests a gradual return to relative stability. During this period, 103 of the 140 cities surveyed have seen some change in overall liveability scores. Of these, 60 have seen improvements in liveability. Four cities in particularAbidjan in Cte dIvoire, Hanoi in Vietnam, Belgrade in Serbia and Tehran in Iranhave seen increases of 5 percentage points or more. Over the past twelve months Kiev has also seen a significant improvement in liveability, reflecting a pick-up in economic growth and relative political stability despite the Donbas conflict. Although the cities ranked among the most liveable in the world remain largely unchanged, there has been pronounced movement within the top tier of liveability. Of the 66 cities with scores of 80 or more, which are considered as the top tier, 40 have seen a change in score in the past twelve months. Changes in overall scores have been positive for all cities except Houston, which saw a decline in its infrastructure rating. An improvement in stability has been the underlying factor affecting movements in the most liveable cities, with the top tier registering an overall increase of 3.4% in its average stability score. Of the top-ranked cities, Paris in France and Manchester in the UK recorded the biggest improvements over the past 12 months, both in overall scores and stability ratings. Although they have been subject to high-profile terrorist attacks in recent years, which have shaken stability and led to cumbersome security measures, both cities have shown resilience in the face of adversity. Nevertheless, with such high scores already in place, the impact of these improvements has not been enough to significantly affect liveability in any of the top-tier cities. In fact although, 19 percentage points separate Vienna in first place from Nouma in New Caledonia in 66th place, all cities in this tier can lay claim to being on an equal footing in terms of presenting few, if any, challenges to residents lifestyles.THE GLOBAL LIVEABILITY INDEX 2018 A FREE OVERVIEW The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2018 4 Nonetheless, there does appear to be a correlation between the types of cities that sit at the very top of the ranking. Those that score best tend to be mid-sized cities in wealthier countries. Several cities in the top ten also have relatively low population density. These can foster a range of recreational activities without leading to high crime levels or overburdened infrastructure. Six of the top ten scoring cities are in Australia and Canada, which have, respectively, population densities of 3.2 and 4 people per square kilometre. These densities compare with a global (land) average of 58 and a US average of 35.6, according to the latest World Bank statistics, from 2017. Austria and Japan buck this trend, with respective densities of 106.7 and 347.8 people per square kilometre. However, Viennas city-proper population of 1.9m and Osakas population of 2.7m are relatively small compared with metropolises such as New Y ork, London and Paris. It may be argued that violent crime is on an upward trend in the top tier of cities, but these observations are not always correct. Although crime rates are perceived as rising in Australia and Europe, cities in these regions continue to boast lower violent and petty crime rates than the rest of the world. Some of the lowest murder rates in the world were recorded in Austria and Japan. The murder rate in Austria was just 0.61 per 100,000 people in 2017, and in Japan it was 0.72 per 100,000 people. This compares with a murder rate of 3 per 100,000 people in New Delhi in 2016 and an estimated homicide rate of 104 per 100,000 people in Caracasaccording to the Venezuelan Observatory of Violencein 2017. Global business centres tend to be victims of their own success. The “big city buzz” that they enjoy can overstretch infrastructure and cause higher crime rates. New Y ork (57th), London (48th) and Paris (19th) are all prestigious hubs with a wealth of recreational activities, but all suffer from higher levels of crime, congestion and public transport problems than are deemed comfortable. The question is how much wages, the cost of living and personal taste for a location can offset liveability factors. Although many global centres fare less well in the ranking than mid-sized cities, for example, they still sit within the highest tier of liveability and should therefore be considered broadly comparable, especially when contrasted with the worst-scoring locations. Five biggest improvers (last five years) City Country Rank (out of 140) Overall Rating (100=ideal) five year movement % Abidjan Cote dIvoire 124 52.2 6.3 Hanoi Vietnam 107 59.7 5.5 Belgrade Serbia 82 72.2 5 Tehran Iran 128 50.8 5 Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam 116 57.1 4.4 Five biggest decliners (last five years) City Country Rank (out of 140) Overall Rating (100=ideal) five year movement % Kiev Ukraine 118 56.6 -12.6 San J