通过系统规模规划改善水电成果：一个来自缅甸的例子（英文版）.pdf

Improving Hydropower Outcomes Through System-Scale Planning: An Example from Myanmar Report prepared for United Kingdoms Department for International Development (DFID) by The Nature Conservancy, WWF and The University of Manchester2 SYSTEM-SCALE PLANNING: MYANMAR 2016 This report was prepared for the United Kingdoms Department for International Development (DFID) by The Nature Conservancy (TNC), World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and The University of Manchester with support from Myanmar Institute for Integrated Development (MIID), CGIARs Program on Water, Land investment costs; flood control; navigation; displaced people; forest loss; fishery support; fish biodiversity; and sediment load. We examined multiple portfolios that represent different combinations of dams and operational rules. Each portfolio was quantified in terms of performance across all 10 metrics with outcomes simulated over 50 years. To illustrate that some metrics cannot be accurately measured at the scale of a sub-basin such as the Myitnge (e.g., the movement of migratory fish throughout a larger basin), some additional analyses were conducted at the scale of the entire Irrawaddy basin. MAP 2. Current existing, under construction and planned dams in the Myitnge River basin8 SYSTEM-SCALE PLANNING: MYANMAR 2016 The results illustrated that some interests are compatible with each other but, for other interests, there are clear trade-offs. The results, and associated visualizations, can allow decision-makers and stakeholders to discuss and negotiate alternative development scenarios. The results and visualizations can also identify portfolios which will allow a better balance among a set of interests. For example, as generally expected, a larger number of dams in the Myitnge sub-basin causes increased fragmentation, sediment and nutrient trapping, and flow alteration, thus reducing the sub-basins contribution to the overall fishery support in the Irrawaddy basin. However, there are several combinations of dams and operating rules that produce almost the same amount of energy, but with much lower impacts on fishery support (Figure 1). This study was focused more on demonstrating the potential for a system-scale approach to improve decision making rather than trying to inform specific decisions for the Myitnge. The results from the Myitnge analysis do illustrate the benefits of a system-scale approach to planning hydropower. The analyses show that different development pathways will have large differences in performance across important interests and that some of these differences and opportunities can only be detected by looking at the system scale, rather than by evaluating projects one-by-one. The products of a system-scale approach can identify trade-offs to be discussed and negotiated in a rational and constructive process and point toward win-win solutions. Using a system-scale planning approach would allow Myanmar to carefully choose which investments it wants to prioritize in order to achieve portfolios that provide a more balanced or desirable range of benefits. FIGURE 1. Trade-off between support for fisheries and mean annual hydropower generation Myanmar has the opportunity to carefully choose which investments it wants to prioritize in order to achieve portfolios that provide a more balanced or desirable range of benefits. PHOTO: Justin Blethrow Trade-off between support for fisheries and mean annual hydropower generation. Each point shows the performance achieved by a combination of infrastructure investments and their operating rules.