Fjord趋势2018（英文版）.pdf

2018 Fjord TrendsTrend 01Physical fights back 4Trend 02Computers have eyes 13Trend 03Slaves to the algorithm 22Trend 04A machines search for meaning 32Trend 05In transparency we trust 42Trend 06The ethics economy 52Trend 07Design outside the lines 622018 Fjord Trends2 3IntroductionTensionOver the past year, weve watched a polarization effect weave its way through many areas of our lives. Disagreement is no new phenomenon, nor are the paradigm shifts we experience across society. The current gulf between opposing opinions is remarkable and sometimes overwhelming, but also presents a moment of great opportunity. Each of our Trends is born out of a fundamental tension, whether its a shift, a disagreement, a collision or a definitive rift in ideas. Digital versus physical, human versus machine, centralized versus decentralized, speed versus craft, automation versus control, traceability versus anonymity its all in this years report. How we navigate these tensions and design for positive, long-lasting change will be more critical today than ever before. In 2018, it wont be enough to be a bystander. We collectively have the opportunity to design the world well be living in for decades to come.Read on to explore Fjord Trends 2018. We hope there will be plenty in these pages to provoke conversations about whats lurking around the corner for youas an individual, an employee, an organization or a consumer. Happy reading!Our annual Trends report is always a team effort, and this years team was bigger and more diverse than ever. More than 1,000 Fjordians, plus (for the first time) 85 clients from five continents, inspired our report, each bringing their own individual perspectives and experiences to the table.We first gathered insights in all formsa mix of hastily-drawn thoughts on Post-it Notes, elegant (and not-so-elegant) illustrations, simple scribbles and long-form copy, and even some musings over a cup of coffee. We then took those insights into workshops designed to hone the thinking and spot patternsand tapped into some digital tools to help us gather evidence for our best ideas (because were all about blending the physical with the digital). The result? Seven Trends affecting business, technology and design in 2018. Today, we see deep divisions across global populations on a broad range of issues, which is creating social and political anxiety. Were also experiencing tension as a result of deep technological change that is altering the world we live in. There is no running from these forces. For the first time, we feel that there is just one meta theme for Trends in 2018: Tension. 4 5Digital is no longer the centerpiece of brand experience. The emphasis is shifting onto how best to use digital as an invisible enabler of physical and sensory experiences. As interactions with users evolve from periodic engagements via a screen to consistent, connected experiences, organizations must create new services that are deeply integrated in the physical world.Trend 01Physical fights back6 7For the past five years, how we have designed services has been dictated and limited by the touchpoints that were available to usthe PC, mobile devices and analog touchpoints. Much emphasis was placed on creating experiences delivered through digital screens and as a result, people spent more time interacting via device than in person.This is about to change.A major shift is underway in technology, fuelled by lower costs, the disaggregation of core technology components, and users growing angst about their own “screen addiction.”Until recently, speaker/microphone, camera, screen and sensors were found together in PCs and mobile phones. Now, they are being pulled apartthe equivalent of dismantling a Swiss Army knife, separating its various tools and embedding each into a diverse array of other places.As the disaggregation of core technology accelerates, each individual component is blurring into the background. This is freeing organizations to move away from interactions via digital screens and refocus on human experiencesthis shift will have a huge impact on how those experiences are designed.Service design, which is all about exploring every touchpoint and channel to design an experience, has a central role to play. The disaggregation of technology components gives service designers many new avenues to explore as they create the next generation of digitally enabled services. No longer restricted by rigid touchpoints, sensory and human experiences are front and center with digital playing a powerful behind-the-scenes role.We are now living in a world where technology is everywhere, supported by the Cloud. We exist in a fog that makes the digital invisible, and that blurs the boundaries between digital and physical. From an installed base of 15.4bn connected devices in 2015, the Internet of Things market is expected to grow to 30.7bn in 2020, and rising to 75.4bn by 2025.Technologies, mobile payments and the hunt for convenience have positioned China as the leader in what has been described by some as the online-to-offline (o2o) revolution. o2o is where customers are identified in the online space then enticed via various toolsclick and collect, for exampleto transact in an offline environment.In the Asia-Pacific region, 88% of retailers plan to implement click and collect systems, according to one recent study. Alibaba, for example, recently invested US$1.25bn in Shanghai-based Chinese online food delivery service Ele.Mea strategic move to strengthen its position in the o2o marketplace.In a separate move, Alibaba recently unveiled its Tao Caf and smart speakercalled Tmall Genieto revolutionize offline retail. By scanning a QR code on the Taobao app at the entrance of the store, customers are tracked by cameras with facial recognition. After going through the checkout doors, they automatically make a purchase through their smartphones without needing to scan everything through a register, and can simply leave the store with their items in hand.People are already starting to move away from intrusive digital technologies and kick against digital saturation. As a result, they are receptive to a more personal approach to services and products, and as technology becomes more ambient, they are migrating to services like Airbnb that offer physical, human and sensory experiences that create lasting memories.Whats going on?“ People are already starting to reject intrusive digital technologies and kick against digital saturation.”Tao Caf from AlibabaData source: IHSPhysical fightsback8 9As technology becomes increasingly affordable, it is dispersed into the physical world. People are being served a growing number of personalized experiences anytime, anywhere, and they will expect many of the benefits they feel today to continue and to evolve as they move from one physical environment to another.Already, we have seen voice-activated interfaces shift the emphasis onto a screen-free physical experience and away from interacting with a digital device as an end in itself. And we have seen interfaces evolve in other ways, such as the emerging use of haptic feedbackusing vibrations to provide feedback and guide behavior, which especially benefits the visually impaired.Audi, for example, has integrated haptic feedback and gesture recognition into its vehicles to declutter and minimize distractions from the user while driving. Ultrahaptics system pushes the boundaries even further.Elsewhere, a growing number of primarily digital brands are now placing greater emphasis on the physical while making the most of their digital expertise and data to improve user satisfaction.Amazon, for example, has shifted its focus in recent years onto the experiential element of shopping with Amazon Go, its purchase of grocery chain Whole Foods and its partnership with Kohls. Each of these moves is convincing evidence of the companys desire to grow its physical retail presence that sell certain items at discounted prices in six US cities. At the same time, it is bringing new Amazon Echo services to market faster than ever.Since 2015, Amazon has opened 11 bookstores, 40 pop-up Amazon stores across the US (mainly designed to showcase its products), pick-up lockers in thousands of retail stores, and “treasure trucks”.Whats next?Amazon Go prototype grocery store in Seattle.“ As technology becomes increasingly affordable, it is dispersed into the physical world and blurs into the background.”Carnival on board experience and medallion.Audi Q7 which features haptic feedback controls.Physical fightsback10 11Fjord suggests01Stop viewing digital and physical as separateInstead ask: how do we design experiences and spaces to connect with people around us, enabled by digital in a physical world? Create experiences that fuse physical and digital. The relationship and connectivity between devices will be criticaland should be invisible.02Let technology inspire youTraditionally, designers think first about the end user. In this space, designers also need to understand and look at the technological possibilities from the outset in order to deliver a new generation of services enabled by digital that thrill and excite. The joining of physical and digital design opens up a wealth of new possibilities and opportunities, so think laterally. As technology falls in price, indulge yourself in the art of the impossible.03Sharpen your design skillsGreater physical experience design must be connected to your digital strategy. More digital will be integrated into physical products and services from the get-go. As a result, new physical and digital design capabilities may be needed in-house. And closer collaboration between physical and digital design specialists will be a must.At city level, we will soon see a mapping of physical and digital together. In Hangzhou, China, Alibaba has been using AI to process video, social media, traffic and other data for its City Brain project, and congestion has been reduced. Reportedly, they are packaging the system for use elsewhere.To capitalize on this sort of thinking, organizations must re-structure and develop new skills. Reintroducing a physical dimension to services provides an opportunity to differentiate at scalewhich has been harder to achieve in the age of apps.The future of service design will be all about blending physical with digital. Particular skills will be required for each, so we will see designers who specialize in physical and digital design working closely together, with shared goals. This will have huge implications for brands and organizations. Local Motors is successfully organizing around this: “We are focused on low volume manufacturing of open-source vehicle designs, using multiple microfactories and a co-creation SaaS platform.”Already, design specialists are responding. Carnival Corporation, for example, has developed the Medalliona wearable smart coin that connects customers to a cruise ship through a digitally-enabled service called the Compass. It ensures each guest receives a unique and seamless experience with their personal preferences constantly captured to optimize service as it is delivered.Having seen how things were developing, Accenture acquired design and innovation firm Matter in 2017. Matter focuses on designing products and experiences for a connected world, adding physical product design to Fjords service design and digital product creation capabilitiesanizations will also need to ask themselves an important question: as digital becomes ubiquitous and increasingly invisible, what future structure, brief and role should there be for digital departments or heads of digital?Physical fightsback12 13Trend 02Computers have eyesComputers have been able to read, comprehend and react to words for some time. Now, they can do the same with images. We got here with help from exponential progress in Artificial Intelligence and machine learning, combined with the fact that cameras are built into a greater variety of devices. Organizations can benefit from engaging with this powerful new source of data to create new digital services that add value and are truly compelling.14 15Examples of the technological development to cameras eyes are starting to appear: Google recently launched Clipsa digital camera without a display that takes pictures for you, using machine learning to recognize and learn faces, and look for interesting moments to record.Apples newest iPhone X has the ability to unlock itself using facial recognition.In China, Alibaba is piloting facial recognition technology at 10,000 parcel pickup locations across Shanghai, to allow users to unlock delivery drop boxes. Meanwhile, Chinese facial recognition start-up Face+ has developed a face-detecting Whats going on?The camera is undergoing its biggest transformation since Louis Daguerre publicly unveiled the first practical photographic processthe daguerreotypein 1839.Over the almost-200 years since, the focus has been on capturing images as the device itself evolved through many varied forms and formats. As a result, intelligent digital cameras are now capturing data which can be processed through machine learning algorithms to provide more sophisticated insights than weve ever before accessed.This has been caused by two major shifts.First, cameras have become smarterboth in terms of what they can capture (their eyes) and what they can do with it (their brain). With sharper eyes and smarter brains, theyre becoming more and more human-like. In the past, computers were limited by what a human can see and process, which was then translated into words for a computer to understand. Today, intelligent digital cameras can use “computer vision” to capture visual data, analyze and act on it without needing text inputs.Google Clips, source Google.iPhone X, source Appleputers haveeyes16 17system now used in several apps including one to transfer money through Alipay (a mobile payment app used by more than 120m people), which scans the users face as the only security credential.In entertainment, Disneys research arm is experimenting with facial recognition to gauge how an audience is responding to a movie. Computer vision is a major step forward. And as computers become skilled at understanding what they see, they can spot patterns in data otherwise invisible to humans.Cars are using intelligent cameras to assess their environment, process the data and respond accordinglylike a driver would. Bosch has created the Automated Mobility Academy that focuses on teaching vehicles how to drive. Using sensors, hardware and software, Boschs Mobility Solutions deliver connected mobility that allows driverless cars to become a reality.The “brain” attached to these eyes is becoming ever-more powerful thanks to Artificial Intelligence and machine learning. No longer do we need to manually input in