2016-2017年全球旅游趋势报告.pdf

1itb-berlin/academyPREPARED BY IPK INTERNATIONAL ON BEHALF OF ITB BERLIN The Worlds Leading Travel Trade ShowITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT 2016 / 2017ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT 2016 / 20172ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT 2016 / 17CONTENTSPageExecutive Summary 3A Tourism on growth path despite terror 4B Europeans play safe by switching destinations 7C Asia travel boom to continue in 2017 11D Chinese will mature into Western-style tourists 14E US travel speeds up but Brazil crashes 16F Terror in tourist destinations: risks, fears and reactions 19G How does Airbnb impact cities? 23H Are Millennials different or just young? 26FOREWORDDear reader,This ITB World Travel Trends Report 2016/17 was again commissioned by ITB Berlin from IPK International, organisers of the 24th annual World Travel MonitorForum, held at San Giuli-ano Terme, near Pisa, Italy, in early November 2016. Some 50 experts from around the wor-ld, including all regions of Europe, along with North and South America and Asia, took part in the forum. They represented international organisations, national and regional tourism organisations and associations, international research institutes and private companies from travel and tourism and related sectors.The report covers the main topics discussed at the forum, including worldwide trends in outbound and inbound travel, and several current topics, including risks and fears of terror attacks, the impact of sharing accommodation providers, and the importance of the young millennial generation. ITB Berlin is delighted to continue its close association with IPK International and the Pisa forum for the 12th consecutive year. In March 2017 at the ITB Berlin Convention, Rolf Freitag will present updated figures for 2016 as well as the latest forecasts for 2017.Meanwhile, we wish you happy reading!Dr Martin Buck David Ruetz Rolf FreitagVice President Travel & Logistics Head of ITB Berlin President & FounderMesse Berlin Exhibition Director IPK International ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT 2016 / 20173EXECUTIVE SUMMARYWorldwide trends in outbound and inbound travel as well as important current topics affecting the travel and tourism sector were once again in focus at this years World Travel MonitorForum. As the World Travel Monitorresults for the first eight months of 2016 made clear, worldwi-de outbound travel remains on the growth path despite terror attacks and political unrest. The number of worldwide outbound trips grew by 3.9%, led by Asia (+11%), including 18% growth in the rapidly developing Chinese market, and the USA (+7%). European outbound travel grew by 2.5%, with good growth from the UK (+6%) and Germany (+4%). Worldwide inbound tourism increased by 4% in the first nine months of 2016, according to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. In Europe, destinations perceived as safe benefited strongly as international travellers turned away from countries impacted by terror attacks or unrest. Asia and the Americas generated good growth. In Asia, the Mekong sub-region was highlighted as one of the worlds fastest growing destinations. The outlook for 2017 is very positive, with world outbound travel predicted to grow by between 4% and 5%, driven once again by Asia and the USA and with stronger growth out of Europe. The Chinese are expected to go on more international trips for many years to come, although there could be a noticeable drop in their sometimes extravagant spending in future, according to one Beijing-based expert.The impact of terror attacks on the travel industry was a much-discussed topic at the Pisa forum. World Travel Monitordata showed that the real risk to travellers from terror attacks is much lower than, for example, health problems or crime. However, many people (45%) now have serious safety and security concerns, especially about certain countries, and about two thirds of them plan to only travel to international destinations they perceive as being safe. Speakers highlighted the possible methods that affected destinations can use to impro-ve their tourism image as well as the positive mutual benefits of tourism and peace. The rise and rise of so-called sharing accommodation providers such as Airbnb came under the spotlight as well. They still have a relatively low market share according to World Travel Monitorfigures. An expert analysis showed that fast-expanding Airbnb is primarily a commercial business rather than a sharing platform and mostly diverts rental accommoda-tion from residents to tourists while generating additional visitor volumes for destinations. Millennials are a large market segment who apparently have special characteristics such as the desire for authentic cultural experiences and who use technology intensively. Yet, according to World Travel Monitordata, they actually display quite similar travel patterns as older travellers. Technology giant Google explained how it is rolling out a whole portfolio of travel products and services to “help travellers to dream, plan, book and experience”. Full accounts of these topics and others are contained in the following sections of the World Travel Trends Report 2016/17. ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT 2016 / 20174SECTION A: GLOBAL TRAVEL TRENDSTOURISM ON GROWTH PATH DESPITE TERROR Terror attacks and political unrest had no impact on the overall volume of worldwide outbound trips this year. The global travel industry remains on a growth path, led by Asian and US travellers, and the number of outbound trips will probably increase by about 4 5% next year. Those were among the key results of the 24th World Travel MonitorForum. The global economy, an important indicator for international travel potential, has had a mi-xed year during 2016 due to divergent trends around the world but again generated low growth, according to figures from the ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich. After growth of 3.2% in 2015, worldwide GDP is expected to increase by 3.1% this year, 3.4% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018. There should be good growth in Asia, moderate growth in the USA and Europe, while emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia should see an economicstabilisation, according to the ifo experts. ROBUST 3.9% GROWTH IN WORLD OUTBOUND TRAVELThe number of worldwide outbound trips grew by 3.9% in the first eight months of this year, according to World Travel Monitorfigures presented at the Pisa forum. “This was a robust performance considering everything that has happened over the past 12 months,” commented IPK International founder and president Rolf Freitag. Asia was once again the worlds growth driver with a dynamic 11% increase in outbound trips, with very strong performances by China (+18%) and the Republic of Korea (+11%). North America grew well with a 6% rise in international trips, driven by the strong US market (+7%), but South America, where Brazilian outbound travel plummeted by 15%, showed only a 1% increase. European outbound travel increased by a solid 2.5%, with good growth from the UK (+6%) and Germany (+4%) as well as smaller markets outweighing a double-digit decline in international trips by Russians.ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT 2016 / 20175GLOBAL OUTBOUND TRAVEL MARKET TOPS $2 TRILLION IN 2016During the first eight months of this year, outbound trips increased by 3.9%. Moreover, in -ternational travellers went on slightly longer trips on average so far in 2016, with growth in longer holidays outpacing shorter trips. The average spending per trip increased slightly as well. Taking all these figures into account, IPK International predicts that the world outbound travel market turnover for the full year 2016 will top the $2 trillion mark for the first time, which would be an increase of around 7 to 8% compared to 2015.In terms of purpose of trip, holidays remain by far the largest segment of outbound trips (75% share) and grew by 4% during the first eight months of 2016. The market shares of business trips as well as of visits to friends and relatives (VFR trips) and other private trips remained about the same. However, they showed divergent growth rates. The number of business trips rose by about 1% while VFR and other private trips went up by 9%. City trips remained a growth sector with a 10% increase between January and August 2016, with a strong 15% rise by Europeans, according to World Travel Monitorfigures. There was a healthy 6% increase in sun & beach holidays, driven by Asians and Americans, but a slight 2% fall in touring holidays.FLUCTUATING FORTUNES FOR DESTINATIONSA key trend this year was that political unrest or terror attacks did not affect the overall vo-lume of foreign trips but certainly the choice of destination. “Destinations that were percei-ved as very dangerous lost millions of visitors, while countries with a positive safety image benefitted very heavily from this switch,” declared Freitag. Among the winners so far this year were, for example, Spain with an increase of more than 10% in inbound trips as well as the UK, which both gained business for diverse reasons. On the other hand, inbound trips to France and Turkey decreased, mainly due to security concerns of travellers.BEST PERFORMING OUTBOUND MARKETS 1-8, 2016Source: World Travel Monitor1-8, 2016, IPK InternationalFor more detailed regional results see the following sections on Europe, Asia and Americas. ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT 2016 / 20176STABLE OVERALL GROWTH FOR WORLD INBOUND TOURISMInternational tourism is performing well this year with stable growth levels, according to fi-gures from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Destinations around the world wel-comed 956 million international visitors between January and September 2016, according to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer released in early November. This was a 4% increase, which is close to the tourism industrys long-term growth rate. “Tourism has been growing at or about 4% for the last six years,” Michel Julian, Technical Coordinator of the Tourism Market Trends Programme, told the Pisa Forum. Following a 5% increase in international tourism to 1,186 million arrivals in 2015, this growth rate for the first nine months of 2016 is within the 3.5 4.5% range for 2016 that the organisation predicted at the start of this year. At a regional level, there was strong growth in international tourism for Asia Pacific, good increases for the Americas and overall low growth for Europe. Africa generated an overall 8% increase thanks to a strong comeback for sub-Saharan destinations. Available data for the Middle East points to a 6% decrease in arrivals, though results vary from destination to destination. There are various key factors affecting international tourism in 2015 and somewhat in 2016, Julian explained. Strong fluctuations in exchange rates have impacted the competitiveness of some destinations by making them more expensive or cheaper, while low oil prices are keeping down transportation costs. Against the background of terror attacks in various countries around the world, the UNWTO expert underlined that destinations need to be prepared for crises so that they can act and react quickly and flexibly. He urged: “It is time for destinations to diversify to new markets, create new products and develop new seg-ments.”Looking ahead, prospects remain positive for the remaining quarter of 2016 according to the UNWTO Confidence Index. The members of the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts are con-fident about the September-December period, mostly for Africa, the Americas and Asia and the Pacific. Experts in Europe and the Middle East are somewhat more cautious.POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR 2017The outlook for travel in 2017 is very positive, according to IPK International. The consultan-cy forecasts an increase in worldwide outbound trips of between 4 and 5%. IPK Internatio-nal sees particularly strong growth for outbound trips from Asia, with a likely rise of 6%, along with increases of about 5% for outbound trips from North, Central and South Ameri-ca and of 4% from Europe. The forecasts are based on IPKs World Travel Confidence Index, which is compiled annually based on the views of the survey participants about their travel intentions for the coming 12 months.ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT 2016 / 20177SECTION B: EUROPE TRAVEL TRENDSEUROPEANS PLAY SAFE BY SWITCHING DESTINATIONSEuropeans changed their travelling habits this year by opting for safe destinations, including a stagnation in sun & beach holidays, while going on more city trips. European destinations had mixed results and welcomed fewer Asian visitors this year. However, after challenging times in 2016 prospects for 2017 look better. Those were some of the results of the 24th World Travel MonitorForum. The economic conditions for European travel remain generally positive, according to figures from the ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich. The European economy has achieved low growth in 2016 and this trend is likely to continue in 2017. The eurozone is expected to show 1.6% GDP growth this year, and then 1.5% in the next two years, as a moderate eco-nomic recovery continues. Eastern Europe is expected to show stronger growth of 2.8% this year and 2.9% in 2017 and 2018, according to the ifo experts.IPKS OUTBOUND TRAVEL FORECAST 2017Source: World Travel Monitor1-8, 2016, IPK International4 - 5%ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT 2016 / 20178LOW GROWTH IN EUROPEAN OUTBOUND TRAVELOutbound travel by Europeans grew by 2.5% in the first eight months of 2016, according to World Travel Monitorfigures. Among major source markets, the top performers in terms of outbound growth were Poland and Ireland (both +7%), the UK, Netherlands, Spain and Denmark (all +6%) while the German market grew by 4%. Europeans went on slightly longer international trips this year but held back with their spen-ding, according to World Travel Monitorfigures. In terms of length of stay, there was a 2% increase in shorter outbound trips (1-7 nights), which make up around two thirds of all trips, a 1% rise in medium-length trips (8-15 nights) and a 5% increase in long trips (16+ nights). The overall average spend per trip was stable at 910 euros. The number of international holidays taken by Europeans increased by a moderate 2% but there was a high 10% increase in the number of visits to family and friends (VFR) and other leisure trips abroad. “This suggests that a significant number of people preferred the safety of private homes to commercial accommodation this year,” commented Paco Buerbaum, CEO of IPK International. Moreover, changes occurred in the types of holidays taken by Europeans between January and August 2016, according to World Travel Monitorfigures. The number of sun & beach holidays stagnated, touring holidays fell by 5% but city trips went up by 15%. Buerbaum commented: “The flat growth for beach holidays reflects the concerns of many tourists abo