亚太2G、3G退网经验白皮书（英文版）.pdf

Legacy mobile network rationalisation Experiences of 2G and 3G migrations in Asia-Pacific May 2020 Copyright 2020 GSMAEstablished in 1997, Network Strategies Limiteds core business is to provide research and analysis on ICT markets, regulation and strategy. We offer a complete global outlook on key issues affecting all players in the telecommunications and new media sectors. We possess a unique and effective combination of experience and qualifications in economics, engineering, modelling, statistics and telecommunications, and our work covers all aspects of telecommunications strategy. Our clients encompass policy-makers, regulators, operators, vendors and industry associations. Windsor Place Consulting Pty Ltd (WPC) is internationally recognised as an outstanding provider of advice to the information industries. The firm, established in 2000, works extensively in telecommunications, media, and information technology, both in the development of commercial strategies for the private sector and the formulation of national policy and legislative settings for public sector clients. WPCs team members have a long association with these industries, having been actively involved through various stages of market liberalisation, from the introduction of competition in Australia in the 1990s to the drafting and implementation of modern convergence legislation in a range of markets especially in Asia, Africa and the Pacific. Network Strategies and WPC acknowledge the significant contribution of various officials from the GSMA, national regulatory agencies, mobile network operators and equipment vendors in the preparation of this report. LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION1 LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION 1 Executive summary 2 2 Introduction 4 3 Key drivers and barriers 6 3.1 Overview 6 3.2 Market drivers 7 3.3 Barriers 10 3.4 Regulatory aspects 14 3.5 Costs versus benefits 16 4 Key lessons 17 4.1 Different drivers for different markets 17 4.2 Characteristics of a successful switch-off 18 4.3 The future of 3G 20 Annex A: Australia: 2G and 3G switch-off 21 A.1 Mobile market 21 A.2 Key drivers 23 A.3 Challenges 24 A.4 Optimal conditions 25 A.5 Risks 27 A.6 Key takeaways 27 Annex B: New Zealand 2G switch-off 28 B.1 Mobile market 28 B.2 Key drivers 32 B.3 Process 36 Annex C: Japan: 2G switch-off 37 C.1 Mobile market 37 C.2 Key drivers 40 C.3 Process 43 Annex D: Singapore: 2G switch-off 44 D.1 Mobile market 44 D.2 Key drivers 47 D.3 Process 48 D.4 Challenges 49 D.5 Optimal conditions 49 Annex E: South Korea: 2G switch-off 50 E.1 Mobile market 50 E.2 Key drivers 53 E.3 Optimal conditions 54 E.4 Case study: KTs early 2G switch-off 55 Annex F: Macao, SAR 56 Contents2 LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION 1. Executive summary Decisions to sunset 2G services and, more recently, 3G services are based on a wide range of considerations. Mobile network operators (MNOs) seek to rationalise legacy network technologies as more spectrally efficient technologies become available and the nature of consumer demand changes. MNOs: key drivers and benefits Refarm spectrum and deploy most cost-effective technology; Reduce operational costs; Meet increased demand for mobile broadband and data intensive applications from smart devices; Potential market and competitive effects for the first mover; Meet Government expectations of deploying the latest innovative mobile technology. Comprehensive strategies require an understanding of risks for both operator and consumer. MNOs: key risks Customer churn, particularly when operators do not switch off at the same time Uncertain demand for new services and capacity The cost of migrating M2M connections Possible changes in coverage, particularly if the new technology (such as VoLTE) does not provide the same coverage as the replaced legacy technology on the same band, or it operates in a frequency band that does not provide adequate indoor coverage without further network investment Potential brand damage if some customers are left without coverage, are forced to upgrade handsets or large numbers of M2M connections are disconnected for business customers. The pioneers in legacy network rationalisation are found in the Asia-Pacific region. Here operators started rationalising 2G services as early as 2008 to 2012, with many others following in more recent years. Drawing on the experience of six case study markets from the Asia-Pacific region, this report explores the most suitable market, regulatory and commercial conditions for achieving a smooth and successful switch-off. The case study markets differ in terms of characteristics of the mobile market, extent of regulator involvement and approaches to spectrum allocation and management. As such, the impact of each of the key drivers on the decisions varied from market to market, with spectrum related issues being the most prominent driver.3 LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION Decisions are invariably driven by operators, with differing degrees of involvement by regulatory authorities. The latter is, for example, needed if spectrum allocations are not technology neutral. However, consumer protection is typically the paramount concern of regulators. Thus, a smooth process depends on careful planning of a transitional period, obtaining regulatory approval where necessary, and above all ensuring effective customer engagement. Based on the experience of the case study markets best practice approaches encompass several key characteristics: A transitional period of around three years, with preparations commencing earlier than formal public announcements; Coverage of any new technology that matches what was previously offered; A reasonable formal notice period, given specific market circumstances and potential obligations; A well-designed campaign involving direct targeting of affected customers, possibly assisted by the regulator; Upgrade incentives for customers, including comparably priced plans, and handset recycling initiatives as part of any 2G or 3G switch-off; and A quality of service that is maintained during and after the transition. Delays in scheduling 2G network rationalisation projects may be caused by the size of operators customer bases for 2G on M2M and IoT applications, particularly where long term support agreements exist. Given that technical options exist for migrating such applications, the cessation decision for 2G and 3G technologies is an economic one. Key factors in the decision include the size and type of subscriber base, current and forecast revenues, and the cost of substitution. For regulators, the implications of a 2G or 3G switch-off should be considered in relation to key spectrum management issues. These include the need for minimum spectrum allocations suitable for utilising newer technologies and the possibility that lengthy renewal of 2G spectrum allocations may result in unused spectrum, particularly in sub-1 GHz bands.4 LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION 2. Introduction APAC (Asia-Pacific) markets are leading the way (Exhibit 2.1). In many APAC markets, such as Singapore, New Zealand and Australia, operators have already decommissioned their 2G networks. Phasing out 2G networks is the preferred option in the APAC region and North America. However, due to the significant size of the markets for 2G based M2M and IoT applications, many European mobile operators are planning to retire 3G services before 2G. EXHIBIT 2.1 2G AND 3G SWITCH-OFF AROUND THE WORLD sf w ld With the smartphone revolution, and the rapid growth in wireless data services, operators worldwide are exploring opportunities to reduce costs, or to re-use 2G/3G spectrum for the more cost efficient 4G and 5G technologies, through shutting down networks using the older legacy technologies. However, operators are employing differing decommissioning strategies and timetables, influenced by characteristics of the local markets. Source: Network Strategies5 LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION In many cases, including in Australia and New Zealand, shutdown of 2G and 3G networks is being driven entirely by operators. However, in some Asian markets the switch-off has been encouraged by the regulator, and there has been greater regulatory engagement in the process. There are a number of considerations that should be explored in any development of strategies for the shutdown of legacy networks. These may include coverage, customer migration and affordability, local regulations, spectrum, and may even address options for retaining a shared legacy network or the retention of 2G utilising only minimum spectrum. The accelerated pace of 5G deployments in the APAC region is resulting in more mobile operators considering the future of their 2G and 3G networks. Study objectives This report aims at identifying the most suitable market, regulatory and commercial conditions for switching off 2G and 3G networks in APAC markets. In particular, it examines: Likely drivers for legacy 2G and 3G network shutdown; The necessary steps to initiate a network switch-off; Conflicts that might arise from suspending dependent services, such as M2M and IoT, and options to mitigate these conflicts; Conditions determining the sequence of 2G and 3G switch- off; Advantages of an operator led switch-off and incentives the regulator may provide to facilitate the operator led switch- off; and Whether a set of conditions needs to be met in order to develop a best practice approach6 LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION 1. Real Wireless (2019), The potential Impact of Switching Off 2G in the UK, report for the UK Spectrum Policy Forum,October 2019. 3. Key drivers and barriers Since the introduction of 2G in the early 1990s, it has been the prevalent mobile networking technology in terms of coverage in most markets. 2G was mainly specified for voice communications and has limited data capabilities. In response to the growing demand for mobile data, 3G networks were introduced commercially in the early 2000s. Subsequently, as the rate of growth of demand for mobile data increased exponentially, 4G and 5G technologies offered significantly higher spectral efficiency and higher capacity than predecessor technologies. As 3G and 4G penetration rates reached those of 2G, a number of markets decommissioned 2G, and in some cases 3G networks. As of mid-2019, more than 20 2G networks and at least five 3G networks have been decommissioned globally 1 . Many other operators have already announced dates. The rapid growth of 5G deployments is also likely to mean that many mobile operators will announce the timetable for 2G or 3G switch-offs in 2020 as they rationalise the costs of deploying 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G networks. Notably, the majority of these switch-offs are in the APAC region (Exhibit 3.1). Despite being technologically obsolete, 2G and 3G network rationalisation decisions are based on a wide range of considerations. These include the potential economic and societal impacts, commercial drivers, spectrum management and refarming, regulatory obligations and service migration challenges. 3.1 Overview EXHIBIT 3.1 SCHEDULE FOR 2G AND 3G NETWORK SHUTDOWNS FOR A SAMPLE OF APAC OPERATORS Source: operators, TeleGeography, authors Market Operator 2G technology 2G shutdown 3G technology 3G shutdown Australia Telstra GSM December 2016 UMTS June 2024 Optus GSM August 2017 UMTS - Vodafone GSM June 2018 UMTS - India Reliance Com GSM November 2017 UMTS November 2017 Bharti Airtel - - UMTS March 2020 Japan KDDI CDMA March 2008 CDMA2000 March 2022 Softbank PDC March 2010 UMTS June 2024 DOCOMO PDC March 2012 UMTS March 2026 Macau, SAR Hutchison GSM June 2015 SmarTone GSM June 2015 CTM GSM June 2015 New Zealand Spark CDMA July 2012 UMTS - 2 degrees GSM March 2018 UMTS - Vodafone GSM 2025 UMTS - Singapore SingTel GSM April 2017 UMTS 2025+ M1 GSM April 2017 UMTS 2025+ StarHub GSM April 2017 UMTS 2025+ South Korea KT CDMA January 2012 UMTS - LG U+ CDMA July 2021 CDMA2000 - Thailand CAT CDMA April 2013 -7 LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION 2. Peak spectral efficiency is only achieved in ideal conditions. In typical propagation conditions, the spectral efficiency has increased about 30 times. There are several factors driving mobile network operators to rationalise legacy network technologies, with the main drivers being: More efficient use of spectrum; Spectrum harmonisation; Spectrum licence expiry; Reducing operational costs; and Meeting increasing demand for mobile broadband and data intensive applications. Spectral efficiency Refarming spectrum for more efficient technologies is an objective that is generally shared amongst both regulators and operators. While regulators seek to maximise the societal impact of mobile communications with optimal use of spectrum, operators seek to maximise revenue by accommodating more traffic per licensed spectrum band. The peak spectral efficiency of mobile technologies, namely the amount of traffic carried in a cell site, has increased more than 200 times since the introduction of GSM in 1991 (Exhibit 3.2) 2 . Most 2G systems use the 850, 900, 1,800 or 1,900 MHz frequency bands. The sub-1 GHz bands, in particular, are very valuable due to their better propagation characteristics, delivering greater coverage and in-building penetration. As spectrum below 2 GHz is scarce, the reuse of these frequency bands for new and more efficient technologies is essential in many cases. Spectrum reuse has been the main driver for the 2G network rationalisation projects in many APAC markets, including Australia, Singapore, South Korea and China. This is particulary critical for operators with small spectrum holdings. Furthermore, packet-switched technologies such as 4G and 5G have greater call handling capacity than the circuit-switched 2G and 3G systems, which adds to the capacity improvements gained by the more advanced radio access technologies. 3.2 Market drivers EXHIBIT 3.2 THE EVOLUTION OF MAXIMUM ACHIEVABLE SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY OF MOBILE TECHNOLOGIES FROM GSM TO 4G LTE-A PRO Source: Network Strategies f) f) f) % % % % % % % % % % % f) f) f8 LEGACY MOBILE NETWORK RATIONALISATION Spectrum harmonisation Spectrum harmonisation refers to the consisent allocation of frequency bands across countries. This is necessary for reducing interference across borders, enabling global roaming, interoperability and to reap the benefits of economies of scale from equipment vendors. Spectrum harmonisation was early on a key driver for retirement of 2G networks in Japan between 2008- 2012. The reason: most Japanese 2G systems were based on the Personal Digital Cellular (PDC) standards that were exclusively used in Japan. Spectrum expiry The expiry of spectrum rights can be an important factor in triggering the decommissioning of a legacy network, if other market conditions are met. This has played a role in Singapore. In Singapore, the spectrum rights for 2G expired at the same time for all three operators. Given that 2G de