2021年5月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态.pdf

2021 6 8 5 30 1.83% 4.08% 5 300 300 51% 5 4 0.02 116 2020 5 345.76 571.98 AAA 74.92% 5 5 66 1 2 AAA AA+ 5.63bp 9.76bp AA- 3.78bp 1. AA 2021 4 2021.5.12 2. 2021 3 2021.4.9 3. 2021 2 2021.3.9 4. 2021 1 2021.2.10 AAA 2021 5请 务必 阅读 正文 后的 免责 声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China June 8 th , 2021 Summary of Opinions In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, in May, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has declined by 1.83% month-on-month, and there was no seasonal increase, indicating that market demand has cooled; the average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has risen by 4.08% year-on-year, continuing a steady upward trend. In the land market, in May, the area of transacted land in “300 cities” was basically the same as in previous years; driven by the increasing prices of land sold in key cities, the average floor price of land sold in “300 cities” has risen sharply by 51% month-on-month. In terms of interest rate, mortgage interest rates continued to rise in May, and the average interest rates for first and second home loans increased by 0.02 percentage respectively from the previous month. In terms of policies, the Political Bureau promulgated the three-child policy, the central banks monetary policy report reiterated that housing is not for speculation, and local governments severely cracked down on the inflow of illegal loans into the real estate market. In terms of key real estate companies, the cumulative external guarantees of Yango Group and Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group have increased; Guangzhou Hejing Holdings Limited intended to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 11.6 billion yuan; Tahoe Group was questioned by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for its 2020 annual report. In terms of bond issuance and maturity, in May, the real estate industry has issued 34.576 billion yuan bonds and repaid 57.198 billion yuan bonds; the issuance scale of AAA-level entities accounted for 74.92%, and the proportion of high-quality entities continued to increase. In terms of credit events and spreads, in May, 5 bonds have defaulted with 6.6 billion yuan overdue principal and interest; one corporate and two bonds have been downgraded; the AAAs and AA+s credit spreads have decreased by 5.63bp and 9.76bp, while the AA-s have risen by 3.78bp, showing that the high-grade and low-grade were further differentiated. Looking ahead, the overall credit status of the real estate industry companies may still improve, but we need to pay attention to the risks of some real estate companies that have not actively reduced their debts yet and have more aggressive Commercialized building sales have cooled down, and the spreads of AAA bonds have further decreased -April 2021 Real Estate Industry Observation and Bond Market Operation Report Author: Shen Xuefeng E-mail ：请 务必 阅读 正文 后的 免责 声明 June 8 th , 2021 Monthly Industry Observation of China business operations; the bond credit spreads between high-quality entities and high-risk entities may continue to widen; the size of remaining bonds issued by real estate companies may stabilize and rise.1 / 15 2021 6 8 1. 30 Wind 5 30 1 1744.44 1.83% 1 10 5 7.31% 5 19.03% 0.14% 8.27% 1 30 2011-2021 Wind 2. Wind 5 2 8024.26 2.72% 2 12 3 3.09 1 30 2 3 = 12 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12 月 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 近10年 均值2 / 15 2021 6 8 2 2014.01-2021.05 Wind 3. 5 16006 / 0.34% 4.08% 3 4 0.02 2016 3 2014.01-2021.05 / % Wind 5 85 2 9 1 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2014-01 2014-05 2014-09 2015-01 2015-05 2015-09 2016-01 2016-05 2016-09 2017-01 2017-05 2017-09 2018-01 2018-05 2018-09 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 十大城 市: 商品 房可 售面 积:当 月值 去化周 期( 右) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2014-01 2014-05 2014-09 2015-01 2015-05 2015-09 2016-01 2016-05 2016-09 2017-01 2017-05 2017-09 2018-01 2018-05 2018-09 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 样本住 宅平 均价 格: 百城 平均 百城住 宅价 格指 数: 同比( 右3 / 15 2021 6 8 4 2014.01-2021.05 Wind 4. 5 4.12 5 2019 5 1.51 5 2015.01-2021.05 Wind 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2014-01 2014-05 2014-09 2015-01 2015-05 2015-09 2016-01 2016-05 2016-09 2017-01 2017-05 2017-09 2018-01 2018-05 2018-09 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 百城住 宅价 格指 数: 同比 上涨 城市 数 百城住 宅价 格指 数: 同比 持平 城市 数 百城住 宅价 格指 数: 同比 下跌 城市 数 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2015-01 2015-05 2015-09 2016-01 2016-05 2016-09 2017-01 2017-05 2017-09 2018-01 2018-05 2018-09 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 城市二 手房 出售 挂牌 量指 数: 全国 城市二 手房 出售 挂牌 价指 数: 全国( 右4 / 15 2021 6 8 1. 5 300 8141 6 5 44.70% 4 40.11% 19% 22% 19% 5 6 300 2017-2021 5 300 51% 53% 5 1. 360 5 5.33% 4 0.02 5.61% 4 0.02 7 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 1 月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7 月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2017 2018 2019 2020 20215 / 15 2021 6 8 7 2014.01-2021.05 % Wind 2. 5 301.82 8 36.08% 5 7.31% 0.14 8 2015.01-2021.05 % 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 2014-01 2014-05 2014-09 2015-01 2015-05 2015-09 2016-01 2016-05 2016-09 2017-01 2017-05 2017-09 2018-01 2018-05 2018-09 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 首套平 均房 贷利 率 全国二 套房 贷平 均利 率 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2015-01 2015-05 2015-09 2016-01 2016-05 2016-09 2017-01 2017-05 2017-09 2018-01 2018-05 2018-09 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 房地产 集合 信托 新成 立规 模 新成立 房地 产信 托平 均收 益率(右6 / 15 2021 6 8 5 1. 5 31 2. 5 11 2021 2020 1.7 / 15 2021 6 8 5 1314 5 21 5 21 5 3.66 2. 4 5 5 7 5 28 5 10 5 28 311.67% 5 5 29 956.62 311.67% 4 78% 5 119% 6 1.07 79% 114% 1.13 4 =( - - )/( - - ) 100% 5 =( - )/ 100% 6 = /8 / 15 2021 6 8 5 12 17 2 250.60% 5 23 719.25 250.60% 78% 147% 0.64 2019 42.98% 250.60% 60 5 6 2021 60 2 2.80%3.80% 3 3.00%4.00% 5 3.40%4.40% 78% 3% 2.45 26 5 12 ( ) 26 5 4.20% 92 66 69.7% 16% 2.86 116 5 14 116 7 64% 16% 4.779 / 15 2021 6 8 5.6%6% 6% 22 5 25 - 22 10 4.9% ( ) 79% 208% 0.35 5 31 2020 12 2020 88% 464% 0.08 5 5 40 Wind 5 345.76 571.98 -226.22 9 8 410 / 15 2021 6 8 9 2015.01-2021.05 Wind 5 50.20% 26.90% 10.06% 5 45.44% 3 25.60% 5 AAA 74.92% AA+ 5.50% AA 12.53% AA- 0% 7.06% 10 AAA 10 2015.01-2021.05 Wind -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2015-01 2015-05 2015-09 2016-01 2016-05 2016-09 2017-01 2017-05 2017-09 2018-01 2018-05 2018-09 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 月发行 量 月偿还 量 净融资 额 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2015-01 2015-05 2015-09 2016-01 2016-05 2016-09 2017-01 2017-05 2017-09 2018-01 2018-05 2018-09 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 AAA AA+ AA AA-及 以下 无评级11 / 15 2021 6 8 Wind 5 5 1 16 05 6.09 16 06 17 MTN001 43.92 H6 02 H6 03 16.08 H6 02 2019 9.06 18 01 3 24 464% 0.08 6 5 1 5 1 16 05 2021/05/12 5.61 5.61 4768 2 16 06 2021/05/12 40 40 28800 3 17 MTN001 2021/05/24 18 0 10440 4 H6 02 2021/05/25 0.0009 0.0009 0.54 5 H6 03 2021/05/25 15 15 10800 Wind Wind 5 1 112 / 15 2021 6 8 1. 2. Wind 5 1 5 18 01 16 05 16 06 16 08 4 18 01 16 05 2 5 4 5 1 B C 2021/05/10 18 01 16 05 16 06 16 08 Wind 3. 4. Wind 5 1 2 16 06 16 08 7 14 9 27 3 5 5 4 5 1 136540.SH 16 06 8.38 B CCC 2021/05/10 2 136705.SH 16 08 5.40 B CCC 2021/05/10 Wind 5 3 AAA AA+ AA AA- 44.06bp 54.22bp 134.64bp 480.78bp 11 4 -5.63 -9.76 -11.83 3.78 AAA AA+ AA- 2 AA13 / 15 2021 6 8 11 2016.01-2021.05 bp Wind 4 AA-AAA AAA AA 12 AA AA- 12 2016.01-2021.05 bp Wind 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 2018-01 2018-04 2018-07 2018-10 2019-01 2019-04 2019-07 2019-10 2020-01 2020-04 2020-07 2020-10 2021-01 2021-04 AAA:3 年 AAA-:3 年 AA+:3 年 AA:3年 AA-:3 年 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 2018-01 2018-04 2018-07 2018-10 2019-01 2019-04 2019-07 2019-10 2020-01 2020-04 2020-07 2020-10 2021-01 2021-04 (AA-AAA):1 年 (AA-AAA):3 年 (AA-AAA):5 年14 / 15 2021 6 8 2020 815 / 15 2021 6 8 “ ” 1988 2 15 30 “ ” “ ” 11 B 11 010-57277666 990 9 021-61428000