2020年全球媒体预测报告.pdf

DEC 2019 WORLDWIDE MEDIA FORECASTS This Year Next YearGroupM 3 World Trade Center 175 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 USA All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright. No part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without written permission from the copyright owners. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents, but the publishers and copyright owners cannot accept liability in respect of errors or omissions. Readers will appreciate that the data is up-to-date only to the extent that its availability, compilation and printed schedules allowed and is subject to change. CONTENTS GLOBAL ECONOMY 06 GLOBAL ADVERTISING GROWTH 07 GLOBAL TELEVISION 10 GLOBAL INTERNET 16 GLOBAL OUTDOOR, RADIO AND PRINT 18 CONCLUSION 21 MARKET TABLES 23FOR THE DETAILED FORECAST VIA SPREADSHEETS : ALL WPP EMPLOYEES: inside.wpp/marketing GROUPM CLIENTS: Please speak with your client account director for the full data file or contact Brian Wieser (brian.wiesergroupm) EVERYONE ELSE: Contact Brian Wieser (brian.wiesergroupm) WORLDWIDE MEDIA FORECASTS DEC 2019 This Year Next YearWhat does our forecast mean for marketers? Where media spending growth outpaces growth in ad inventory and produces inflationary conditions for like-for-like inventory, brand-focused marketers must continually evolve their tactics to optimize campaigns. For example, the timing of flights; the balance of resources allocated to data, consumer insights, creative content and media buys; and the relative utility of specific media owners must all be managed for greater efficiency. Marketers should continually look to develop alternative approaches to their communications efforts so they have the credible ability to walk away from less desirable choices. 1 Where media spending growth is tepidor worsebrand and performance marketers alike may still find valuable opportunities to use a medium, so long as the potential for campaign reach against target audiences is still relatively substantial. In these situations where spending grows slower (or declines faster) than consumption, opportunities to secure improved overall terms, presence and efficiency are likely to be produced. 2 Where territories economic growth is stronger than advertising growth, those markets may offer disproportionate benefits for shifts of ad budgets from global companies across countries. Over the next five years, the widest gaps of this nature among the worlds 20 largest economies are found in China, Switzerland, Mexico, Brazil and South Korea. Where economic growth is weaker than advertising growthand unless there are meaningful changes in trends in media consumption or ad inventory managementthose countries may be relatively less effective places to spend. The widest gaps of this nature among the top 20 markets include Indonesia, the U.K., India, Italy and Canada. 3 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 5 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS DEC 20196 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS DEC 2019 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR Global Economic Summary The global economy has weakened in 2019 and will remain similarly soft in 2020. By our calculations, based on Refinitiv data, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries we track in “This Year, Next Year” is growing by only +2.6% this year in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Growth in 2020 is expected to be similar (+2.5%), with only slightly faster growth (+2.8%) in 2021 and beyond. For reference, +2.5% would be the slowest pace of growth in any non-recession / non-recovery year over the past two decades. In nominal terms (including inflation), 2019 growth for these countries is expected to be +4.9%, down from growth of +5.8% in 2018 and +5.7% in 2017. 2020 looks somewhat similar to 2019, and marginal improvements follow in subsequent years. Nominal growth rates are important to track because they are the most directly comparable figures to those with which marketers and media owners work in determining their own financial plans. Personal consumption expenditures are holding up better. One factor that has probably helped sustain marketing growth so far this year is growth in personal consumption expenditures (PCE). As consumer spending represents more than half of all economic activity, PCE can be more important to monitor than GDP . Global growth in nominal PCE is holding up as well in 2019 as it did in 2018 at +5.5% in both years. Growth is expected to slow, but only modestly in the years ahead. Of course, changes in inflation levels diminish these figures, with expectations for real (inflation-adjusted) PCE growth at incrementally slower levels each year over the next five years. Industrial production often correlates more tightly with advertising growth trends. Industrial production (IP) figures are another key set of metrics to monitor, as IP often correlates better with advertising activity than either GDP or PCE (manufacturers generally only make things for sale if they are planning to spend money on advertising “CMOs are looking to better connect all of their marketing channels together with technology, but efficiency will continue to be an imperative in the current lower-growth environment.” CHRISTIAN JUHL, GROUPM GLOBAL -12% -6% 0 6% 12% Advertising (Excl. U.S. Political) GDP PCE Industrial Production 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ADVERTISINGTHIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 7 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS DEC 2019 them). Weighted against GDP in the markets captured here, we see pronounced weakness in 2019 and 2020 (+1.2% and +1.5%, respectively) relative to 2017 and 2018 levels (+3.5% and +3.1%, respectively). Recovery toward slightly higher levels is anticipated for 2021 and beyond. Trade and other factors are key sources of uncertainty. As the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has pointed out, slowing global trade is clearly dragging on economic activity, and seemingly heightened geopolitical uncertainties are similarly unhelpful. All of this would worsen if the U.S. experienced a recession, although the U.S. economy has remained resilient, likely aided in part by low interest rates and corporate tax reductions, alongside a federal deficit of nearly $1 trillion during the most recent fiscal year. This was equivalent to more than a quarter of all government expenditures and nearly 5% of the overall economy, or more than double its recent trough in 2015. Mean and median growth rates may tell different stories. We note the difference between mean and median growth rates, with larger economies expected to perform relatively better than smaller ones in the years ahead. Global Advertising Growth Summary In this environment, deceleration in advertising growth should be generally unsurprising. Global advertising, excluding U.S. political advertising (large enough to distort global growth rates by +/-1% each year), expanded by +5.7% in constant currency terms during 2018, capping the third year of better than +5% growth and the best year of the current economic cycle. However, 2019 appears set to grow nearly a percentage point slower at +4.8%, and growth is expected to slow by another percentage point in 2020 and 2021. We forecast +3.9% growth next year and +3.1% TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO 2020 GLOBAL GROWTH (MM OF USD) U.S. U.K. India China Japan Brazil France Canada Indonesia Russia 18,407 1,910 1,518 1,258 754 692 545 465 397 295 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 “Media investments are greatly impacted by the global macroeconomic outlook, a domestic economic slowdown and China-US trade tensions.” PATRICK XU, GROUPM CHINA8 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS DEC 2019 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR growth the following year. Growth is expected to range between +34% through 2024. Although much worse than recent years, we note that this would amount to a similar pace of growth to what was observed during 20122014. We estimate that the total global advertising market during 2020 will amount to $628 billion as we define advertising here, but would likely approach $700 billion on a broader definition that includes spending on direct mail and directories around the world. Notably, a substantial share of global advertising is now accounted for by digital- first brands that are endemic to the internet. Based upon their securities filings, we can see that Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Booking, eBay, Facebook, IAC, JD, Netflix and Uber are each now $1 billion+ advertisers, accounting for $36 billion in spending during 2018, up by a quarter over 2017 levels; growth in 2019 was presumably very similar. Adding a couple dozen companies from the next tier of comparable marketers would easily add tens of billions of dollars of additional activity. Combined, this small group of companies accounts for a majority of the worlds growth in spending on advertising. To the extent that these companies tend to take shares of consumer spending from others and do not directly cause the global economy to expand, at some point their growth converges with global averages, resulting in slowing growth in spending as well. The median growth rate has exhibited sharper deceleration in 2019 than the mean. For the countries we have tracked with consistent data back to 1999, the median growth rate in 2018 was +5.2%. It is expected that 2019 will be +2.1%, followed by +2.7% growth in 2020, with generally slower growth than the weighted average. The difference between the mean and median highlights that growth is driven by a small number of large countries and that the typical small country is experiencing worse growth trends, bringing down the worldwide average. By contrast, median country growth was typically well above the mean as recently as 2013, reflecting a period where much of global advertising growth was driven by smaller countries. This maps to the aforementioned global economic trends. The U.S. remains the largest global advertising market, with $246 billion in advertising as we define it here, and growing above global averages. With nearly 40% of the worlds total and a still-robust advertising market in 2020 and beyond (at +45% growth excluding directories, direct mail and political advertising), the U.S. is helping raise global averages. Our forecasts anticipate a slowing economy as well as the gradual maturation of the digital brands that have driven so much recent growth. On the basis described here, normalized U.S. advertising should slow from +7.6% in 2019 to +5.0% in 2020, +3.4% in 2021, and similar levels in subsequent years. Chinas $90 billion media market is maturing and beginning to slow, but is still more than two times the size of the number-three market, Japan. After many years of rapid growth, China is now solidly the worlds clear number-two market for advertising, with 16% of total media-owner ad revenue, nearly matching the countrys 17% share of global GDP . However, macroeconomic concernsincluding issues referenced above and a general maturation of the Chinese advertising marketare weighing on growth “As with the global economy, Japan and its advertising industry are headed for a mild slowdown, although there are some domestic offsets related to the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.” YUKA KUBO, GROUPM JAPANTHIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 9 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS DEC 2019 this year and beyond. We forecast growth of only +3.7% in 2019 and +1.4% in 2020. Similarly, low levels of growth are anticipated in subsequent years despite faster levels of economic expansion for the overall Chinese economy. Japan remains a solid number three, with 7% of global advertising ($41 billion in 2020) and 6% of GDP , but growth is expected to be tepid there as well; +1.7% growth in 2019 is expected to be followed by +1.8% in 2020, and closer to +1% in subsequent years. The U.K. is still growing at a remarkably fast pace. Among larger advertising economies, the U.K. and the U.S. stand out for their healthy growth expectations. For the U.K., it is a feat made more remarkable given how much uncertainty has persisted over the past three years since the Brexit referendum. Five years ago, the U.K. was essentially tied with Germany as the number-four market for global advertising, but since that time the U.K. has grown by +44% while Germany has only expanded by 7%. The factors driving the U.K. are likely similar to those that have helped make the U.S. a strong market, including a substantial presence of digital brand spending as well as the expanding availability of ad inventory (in digital environments, primarily), which help make it possible for smaller marketers to use media. Although we do expect growth to taper off from the high-single-digit levels we have observed since 2014, solid mid-singles (+6.7% in 2020 and +5.5% in subsequent years) are now expected. Germany and France are growing at below-global average rates; so is much of the rest of Europe. Brazil should be above average, while India is the world leader among larger media markets. Germany and France have certainly underperformed U.K. and U.S. levels of advertising growth in recent years, but remain in the number-five and number-six positions for now. France appears set to grow at a slightly faster pace than Germany, with a +2.8% five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2024 for France versus a +1.6% CAGR for Germany. By 2024, Germany should still be the fifth- largest advertising market, but France will likely be overtaken in importance by both India 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Internet Outdoor + Cinema Magazine Newspaper Radio TV 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 ADVERTISING SHARE BY MEDIUM “Uncertainty around Brexit continues. Marketers remain cautious regarding the deployment of advertising budgetsalthough this isnt necessarily translating into the 2019 spend numbers as Brexit slips back.” TOM GEORGE, GROUPM UK10 | WORLDWIDE MEDIA AND MARKETING FORECASTS DEC 2019 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR and Brazil, currently number six and number seven, respectively. Brazil should grow at a solid +45% level through 2024 after a soft 2019 (we believe the ad market there grew by only +3.3% in 2019), but India should continue to be stellar, maintaining double-digit growth rates (we estimate +1213% each year from 2020 to 2024, similar to 2019 levels). Of course, inflation is an issue for both of these countries, negating much of Brazils growth. However, in India the effect will only mean that real growth is in high-single digits rather than low doubles. Canada and Australia are similarly sized markets, but they are growing in different directions. Canada and Australia round out the worlds $10