2020年科技、媒体和电信预测.pdf

Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Predictions 2020Deloittes Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) group brings together one of the worlds largest pools of industry expertsrespected for helping companies of all shapes and sizes thrive in a digital world. Deloittes TMT specialists can help companies take advantage of the ever-changing industry through a broad array of services designed to meet companies wherever they are, across the value chain and around the globe. Contact the authors for more information or read more on deloitte. Contents Foreword 2 Bringing AI to the device: Edge AI chips come into their own 4 Robots on the move: Professional service robots 18 set for double-digit growth Private 5G networks: Enterprise untethered 30 High speed from low orbit: A broadband revolution 46 or a bunch of space junk? The smartphone multiplier: Toward a trillion-dollar economy 58 My antennae are tingling: Terrestrial TVs surprising staying power 72 Coming to a CDN near you: Videos, games, and much, much more 86 Ad-supported video: Will the United States follow Asias lead? 94 The ears have it: The rise of audiobooks and podcasting 106 Cyclings technological transformation: 118 Making bicycling faster, easier, and safer2 Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Predictions 2020 Foreword TMT Predictions 2020: The canopy effect D ELOITTES 2020 TMT Predictions report contains three overarching themes. First, individual technologies are no longer siloed, but are becoming ever more connected and interdependentand their impact and value are increasing as a result. Second, most of the TMT industrys money is coming from smartphones, computers, TVs, enterprise data centers and software, and IoT (we call these the “Big Five”). And third, many ser- vices and products that have been “just around the corner” for years are finally turning that corner in 2020. Think of a forest In prior years of TMT Predictions, we have cross-referenced chapters a handful of times. This year, however, we have done so much more frequently. Consider that edge AI chips, private 5G, and robots are all intercon- nected, while ad-supported video and antenna TV are both affected by each other as well as by low-earth-orbit broadband satellites. Why has this cross-linking ballooned in 2020? Think of a forest. In its youth, saplings grow meters apart from each other. Bacteria, fungi, insects, and animals coexist in a single tree, but the same organisms might not be present in the tree next to it. Each sapling is, to an extent, an island with its own ecosystem. As the forest reaches maturity, while the trunks remain meters apart at ground level, 30 meters above the branches now all touch, creating a dense canopy that may be six meters thick. This single canopy, consisting of perhaps millions of trees, is now a unified ecosystem that may span thousands of kilometers. A parallel phenomenon is underway in the TMT industry. Only 10 years ago, for instance, each kind of AI tech- nology was its own “sapling”: Innovations in natural language processing did not lead to better visual recognition, for example. Then, new deep machine learning hardware began to accelerate all AI innovations at the same time, creating a “canopy” in which advances in one area were almost always matched by advances in the other (former) AI silos. Nor does the phenomenon stop there. Until recently, deep learning has been performed using chips that cost thousands of dollars and used thousands of watts, and that were hence largely restricted to data centers. Within just the last two years, however, new edge AI chips that cost mere dollars and require only a few watts have made it possible to perform machine learning anywherefurther expanding the canopy, to stick with our meta- phor. Thanks to this development, even more data, algorithms, information, and solutions are flowing through all parts of the ecosystem, leading to ever faster and more useful AI for consumers and enterprises. Big money and the Big Five Just five ecosystems are responsible for the bulk of the TMT industrys revenue. The smartphone ecosystem alone is worth well over a trillion dollars per year. The TV ecosystem is worth more than US$600 billion; PC sales and ancillaries (consumer and enterprise) generate yearly revenues of about US$400 billion, enterprise data centers and software (combined) will make about US$660 billion in 2020, and IoT (accelerated by the rollout of 5G) will be worth half a trillion dollars by 2021.3 Foreword If we add up other newer devicessmart watches, consumer drones, e-readers, home 3D printers, AR glasses, VR glasses, and smart speakerstheir combined ecosystems generate only a small fraction of the smallest of these Big Five. The 10 chapters of this years report are largely about connecting the Big Five ecosystems, advertising on them, selling accessories for them, or providing content for them. Yes, some audiobooks and podcasts will be played on smart speakers, for examplebut by the end of 2020, more than half of all audiobooks will be listened to on smartphones alone. For the foreseeable future, the big bucks will gravitate toward the Big Five, with everything else being relatively niche markets. Better late than never As the old tech joke goes: “X is the technology of the future and always will be!” But that isnt always strictly true. In 2020, we foresee an entire crop of previously perennially delayed technologies finally becoming ready for prime time. TMT Predictions poster child for such late-blooming technologies is the deployment of low earth orbit (LEO) satellites for low-latency broadband internet. The first LEO megaconstellation was envisioned in 1998; the first (limited) commercial service may launch by the end of 2020, 22 years later. Other late bloomers, though not quite as delayed, are professional services robots, whose unit sales may exceed those of robot arms in 2020; bikes, particularly e-bikes, catching on in a big way for commuters around the world; and podcasts, which will have their first billion-dollar year in 202016 years after the first podcast was released. This trio of trends may make predicting more predictable! An interconnected ecosystem with a limited number of significant players should allow us (and everyone) to foresee trends with greater accuracy and more confidence. Indeed, it may be time to retire the other old joke: “Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” In the near future, maybe it wont be as tough. Paul Sallomi Global Technology, Media other device categoriestablets, wearables, smart speakerscontain them as well (fi gure 3). In the short term, these nonsmart- phone devices will likely have much less of an impact on edge AI chip sales than smartphones, either because the market is not growing (as for tablets 11 ) or because it is too small to make a material diff erence (for instance, smart speakers and wearables combined are expected to sell a mere 125 million units in 2020 12 ). However, many wearables and smart speakers depend on edge AI chips, so penetration is already high. Bringing AI to the device: Edge AI chips come into their own Core network Traditional edge network Far edge network Source: Technology Business Research, Inc., “Telecom edge compute market landscape,“ accessed December 2, 2019. Deloitte Insights | deloitte/insights FIGURE 2 Telecom edge compute, or the “far edge network,” brings computing to within 30 miles of its data source Telecom edge compute taxonomy National One to several Regional Several to tens Metro Tens to hundreds Local Hundreds to millions Distance from data source Thousands of miles Hundreds of miles 30100 miles 30 miles from endpoint Number of edge compute locations The vast majority of these edge AI chips will go into high-end smartphones, which account for more than 70 percent of all consumer edge AI chips currently in use.