2019年10大热门消费趋势（英文版）.pdf

1 Ericsson | 10 Hot Consumer Trends 201910 Hot Consumer Trends 2019 An Ericsson ConsumerLab Insight Report December 2018ericsson/ consumerlab2 Ericsson | 10 Hot Consumer Trends 2019ContentsMethodologyThis report presents insights based on Ericssons long-standing consumer trends program, now in its eighth year. The insights in the report are mainly based on an online survey carried out in October 2018, of 5,097 advanced internet users in Johannesburg, London, Mexico City, Moscow, New York, San Francisco, So Paulo, Shanghai, Sydney and Tokyo. Respondents are advanced internet users aged 1569, who have an urban early adopter profile with high average use of new digital technologies. Within the sample, 47 percent use virtual assistants (Apples Siri, Google Assistant, Amazons Alexa, etc.) at least weekly, and 31 percent use augmented or virtual reality (AR/VR) every week.Correspondingly, they represent only 34 million citizens out of around 183 million living in the metropolitan areas surveyed, and a small fraction of consumers globally. However, we believe their early adopter profile makes them important to consider when exploring future trends.Trend 10 also relies on 2017/2018 survey data from Ericsson ConsumerLabs analytical platform, consisting of 72,067 smartphone users aged 1569 in 50 countries. With the much greater reach of this survey, the trend report ends by pointing toward the mass market.About Consumer clothes shops that take your measurements in seconds and carry out custom tailoring in minutes; schools with increasing robotization of teachers and hospitals with non-human doctors; autonomous cars; restaurants with mechanized menus; galleries showing art made by artificial intelligence (AI); and live music performances by algorithmic composers are just a few examples of future possibilities. Many of these examples may seem like science fiction but they are nevertheless already being realized in society.Automation refers to processes that are performed without human intervention or assistance. With digital technology, the speed and reach of automation is now increasing rapidly. It may already be common in workplaces, but what will happen when all of society is automated? Will a life made up of more automated processes still feel human? And what will our place as individuals be when everything is smarter, more exact and logical?Automation lends itself to creating an orderly society, but when conflicting yet autonomous processes happen simultaneously, could it also become more chaotic? The Ericsson 10 Hot Consumer Trends 2019 reveal that people are experiencing mixed emotions. Almost half of the respondents in the survey think that, for better or worse, the internet has replaced many of the simple pleasures of daily life.As digital technology spreads throughout society, all these hopes and fears simultaneously filter through consumers minds. The perspectives are staggering and consumer views on a near-future automated society are very much the theme of this report.Automation will change the way we live and work01. AwareablesSix in ten virtual assistant users think devices that understand our moods will be mainstream in three years.02. Smart quarrelsThirty-one percent of virtual assistant users believe different smart speakers in their homes will argue like families do.03. Spying appsForty-seven percent of consumers think apps collect data about them even when the apps are not being used.04. Enforced agreementAlways having to accept data collection cookies annoys 51 percent of consumers. 05. Internet of skillsMore than 50 percent of AR or VR users want apps, glasses and gloves that give virtual guidance for practical, everyday tasks.4 Ericsson | 10 Hot Consumer Trends 201910 Hot Consumer Trends 2019Welcome home, did you have a good day?Is everything ok?No!AllowTeam Pizza Team Burgers5 Ericsson | 10 Hot Consumer Trends 201907. Mental obesityOne in three consumers soon expect to go to “mind gyms” to practice thinking, as everyday decision-making gets increasingly automated. 06. Zero-touch consumptionAround half of virtual assistant users want automated bills and subscriptions, as well as self-restocking household supplies. 08. Eco meThirty-nine percent of consumers want an eco-smartwatch that measures their carbon footprint.10. 5G automates societyOne in five smartphone users believe 5G will better connect IoT devices, such as household appliances and utility meters. 09. My digital twinForty-eight percent of AR or VR users want online avatars that mimic them exactly, so they can be in two places at once.5 Ericsson | 10 Hot Consumer Trends 20196 Ericsson | 10 Hot Consumer Trends 2019Your smartphone is likely to contain more sensors than anything else in your home. Yet advanced technology such as face recognition is only used for seemingly simple things, such as unlocking your phone.But what about when your smartphone becomes fully aware of you; not only of what you do, but of who you are? Today, AI can already understand your personality just by looking into your eyes,1or by hearing your voice.Half of those currently using virtual assistants (Google Now, Alexa or Siri, etc.), in phones or smart speakers, think that their smartphones will soon understand their emotions. And 42 percent think smartphones will soon understand them better than their friends do. In fact, 6 in 10 think devices that sense and react to our moods will be mainstream in 3 years.When this happens, devices will act on situations rather than commands. Imagine that you told your smart speaker a secret and wanted it to be discreet. Fifty-six percent of virtual assistant users want a smart speaker that lowers its voice in such a situation. 1frontiersin/articles/10.3389/fnhum.2018.00105/fullSimilarly, 52 percent want a smartwatch that blocks notifications when it understands you are busy. Forty-seven percent even want an app that fact-checks a social media post just by noticing a surprised look on your face.As a keeper of your secretsAs your insurance consultantAs your clothes style advisorAs your lawyerAs a doctor checking your healthWhen devices know us this well, they will also know our secrets. But astoundingly, twice as many trust an AI device more than a human to keep their secrets.Base: Virtual assistant users in 10 cities globallySource: Ericsson ConsumerLab 10 Hot Consumer Trends 20190% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%Trust human Trust AIFigure 1: Trust in humans and AI among virtual assistant usersWelcome home, did you have a good day?Is everything ok?No!AwareablesYour devices will soon know you better than you know your devices.7 Ericsson | 10 Hot Consumer Trends 2019Family life can often include bickering and trivial quarrels over differing opinions, and this could extend to the behavior of virtual assistants.What will happen when we let different types of virtual assistants, such as Alexa, Google Assistant, Siri and others, into various devices in our homes? It turns out 47 percent of virtual assistant users surveyed think different assistants will give them different answers. In fact, 41 percent think it will be important for couples to have compatible assistants.47% 47 percent of virtual assistant users think different assistants will give them different answers.41% 41 percent think it will be important for couples to have compatible assistants.But would disagreeing assistants really quarrel? In the same way that people tend not to talk about strained relationships when in public, people may not want to talk about the bickering that happens between their devices at home. It could even lead to tensions in the home and cause arguments between family members themselves.Although only 31 percent think virtual assistants in their own household would start quarrelling with each other like family members 66 percent believe such family scenarios will be common 3 years from now. What should I have for dinner?Burgers have been ordered, they will be delivered to your door in 15 minutes.PizzaBurgersI win!Fight!Smart quarrelsVirtual assistants might argue just like family members do.8 Ericsson | 10 Hot Consumer Trends 2019It is not uncommon to hear people describe a situation where they have been talking about a certain product only to be confronted by related advertising. Although there is little concrete evidence that apps listen in to your conversations, you may have experienced something similar.As a result, the feeling of having someone constantly looking over your shoulder is becoming almost impossible to shake off. In fact, 47 percent of respondents believe many popular apps use cameras, microphones and location information to collect data about their everyday behaviors even when the apps are not being used.Many people also feel that they are being taken advantage of. As many as 52 percent of consumers think popular apps collect more smartphone data than needed in order to make profits. This leads to more than half of consumers trying to avoid companies that misuse personal data when they choose services and products. But even so, more than half still worry that apps sell their data to companies without their permission.As a result, 59 percent say we need global personal data protection principles. The question of individual integrity will continue to rise with the increasing digitalization of society.$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $52% 52 percent of consumers think popular apps collect more smartphone data than needed in order to make profits.Spying appsMany feel that the apps they use are constantly spying on them.9 Ericsson | 10 Hot Consumer Trends 2019With an increasing number of websites wanting to collect our information, browsing the internet has turned into a real chore. Although the EU initiative to protect user data and integrity has consumer benefit in mind, it has set off a global epidemic of companies trying to get consumers to sign away their rights to personal data. The result of this is consumer fatigue. More than half think there should be a single standardized agreement that all companies would have to use, allowing a choice over which level of personal data use consumers accept. Only 8 percent are comfortable with always having to accept cookies and data collection, whereas 51 percent are annoyed by it. Trying to cajole consumers into agreement might in fact be counter-productive. In our survey, 46 percent of consumers say that having to agree to so much makes agreement enforced and worthless. Instead, it only creates mistrust. The major business model behind this is to serve up personalized adverts to the users. But that in itself becomes a problem when 49 percent say they often have to wait for an ad to load before they can view a web page. This begs the question: is the internet broken? In fact, 47 percent think the internet needs a new business model beyond advertising. And as many as 42 percent say the internet needs to be changed fundamentally if it is going to be a force for good in society again.AllowAllowConsentAccept all Accept someWhateverThis app requires access to your:CameraMicrophoneLocationMoodDietary requirementsSleeping habitsSchool report cardsBank recordsInternet historyDarkest secretsLorem ipsumAuthorize Enforced agreementClicking yes to “allow cookies” has become the new enforced pastime.10 Ericsson | 10 Hot Consumer Trends 2019With increasing internet use, a gradually diminishing understanding of physical things is affecting all of us. We dont know what to do when there is no app to start or screen to swipe. Almost half of all respondents agree that those who spend too much time on the internet seem to forget how to do even simple things in real life.But now the internet is about to literally step into the physical world, and help us fix that broken chair, even if we have never used a hammer before. Or help us cook the best food imaginable even if we normally fail with instant noodles.Imagine a YouTube video that interactively personalizes instructions to help you do something you have never tried before. Eighty-two percent of AR/VR users believe that this type of instruction will be mainstream in only three years.But AR and VR offer possibilities far beyond that. Sixty percent would like glasses with on-screen instructions that help you repair almost anything, and 56 percent even want to learn how to dance using an instructive AR experience. With instructions that adapt digitally to any task at hand soon to be available on demand, we will likely see the creation of a whole internet of skills.Figure 2: Percentage of AR or VR users interested in services0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%A pair of glasses that help you repair almost anything in your household by giving on-screen instructionsAn app that gives hands-on help to cook food by mapping onto your stove and kitchen utensilsAn AR experience that maps onto your own body and teaches you to danceA smartphone app that digitally shows everything from tying shoes to pumping air into a bike tireGloves that can guide your fingers when repairing things or even when sewing on a missing shirt button20%Base: AR or VR users in 10 cities globallySource: Ericsson ConsumerLab 10 Hot Consumer Trends 2019Internet of skillsUsing AR/VR to structure reality will let us instantly master almost anything.