新兴亚洲市场消费趋势对行业的影响（英文版）.pdf

Ivan Uzunov Industry Impact of Consumer Trends in Emerging Asian MarketsNot to be distributed without permission.CONNECT WITH US 2018 Euromonitor International Industry Impact of Consumer Trends in Emerging Asian Markets Ivan Uzunov Research Manager Euromonitor International iv CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 3 MODERN RETAILING MAKING INROADS 6 INTERNET RETAILING GROWS, BUT SLOWLY 7 URBANISATION DRIVES SALES OF PACKAGED FOOD 9 DYNAMIC SOFT DRINKS MARKET SHOWS STRONG POTENTIAL 12 DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL SHIFTS BOOST ALCOHOLIC DRINK SALES 15 TOBACCO GROWTH SLOWS IN SOME COUNTRIES 18 BEAUTY AND PERSONAL CARE CONSUMERS REMAIN CONSERVATIVE 21 WEAK PUBLIC HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS SHAPE CONSUMER HEALTH 23 HOME CARE MARKET REMAINS IN ITS INFANCY 25 TISSUE AND HYGIENE PRODUCTS NOT WIDELY USED 27 STRATEGIES FOR EXPANSION INTO THE FUTURE SOUTHEAST ASIAN STARS 29 HOW CAN EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL HELP? 30 ABOUT THE AUTHOR 31 CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Euromonitor International 1 INTRODUCTION The Asian economy has often been cited as one of the key motors of global trade. After the financial crisis of 2008, however, the real economy took a strong hit, and many international players withdrew their attention from the region, focussing instead on their diminishing sales at home. 10 years later several emerging markets are again entering the spotlight with rapid economic growth, and the fast pace with which local consumers adopt global trends. Although many such markets still present risks and face instability, Euromonitor International has outlined Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos as some of the most promising for the future. The economic structure of all emerging markets in the region look similar. All economies, and especially those of Laos and Bangladesh, are primarily agricultural. In Bangladesh farming accounts for around two-thirds of the labour force, and around a third of GDP . Many people involved in agriculture remain deeply impoverished, and are very conservative in their consumption habits. GDP per capita, measured at Purchasing Power Parity, international dollars Source: GDP Measured at Purchasing Power Parity: Euromonitor International from national statistics / Eurostat / OECD / UN / International Monetary Fund (IMF ), International Financial Statistics (IFS ) 0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00 14,000.00 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sri Lanka Laos Myanmar Bangladesh CambodiaIntroductIon Euromonitor International 2 All five markets in question have recently witnessed a rapidly-growing middle class, especially in the large metropolitan areas of cities such as Dhaka, Colombo and Phnom Pen. The new urban consumers are quickly and enthusiastically adopting global trends, often spurred by social media. Regional trends are also rapidly adopted through the fast-growing popularity of Korean pop music, Bollywood movies and Western TV series. With the opening of borders, more wealthy consumers have the chance to travel, while more economic migrants spend at least some period living and working abroad. This allows an increasing number of consumers from all layers of society to experience global consumer trends first-hand abroad, and bring their new knowledge and habits back home with them. Over the forecast period, economic growth is expected to be underpinned by strong investment activity and gradual policy reforms. Economic imbalances, however, will also rise. All of the five focus markets are in a strategic location, and their proximity to the dynamic regions of East and Southeast Asia should serve them well, as manufacturers move around the region in search of lower labour costs. Their economies, however, remain on a narrow base, depending almost exclusively on energy and agriculture. Yet all of these countries have a young labour force and could benefit significantly from their strategic location in a dynamic region. Potential investors in these five markets face several major obstacles. Countries such as Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia are some of the regions most impoverished, following years of civil war, social instability and international isolation. Although those days are now in the past, many of the countries maintain only weak financial and trade links with the West. Sometimes this is determined by the political stance of local regimes. Laos, for example, is one of the worlds few remaining communist states, and coincidentally one of East Asias poorest countries. This e-book aims to provide an overview of the main consumer trends in the region and address some of the challenges that fast moving consumer goods (FMCG ) market players face as they attempt to expand their presence in these five emerging markets. Euromonitor International 3 MODERN RETAILING MAKING INROADS The retail environment in these emerging countries is highly dynamic, offering many opportunities for savvy investors. Double-digit growth in retail value terms has been observed over the last five years, bolstered by strong economies, young populations, rising levels of disposable income and infrastructure improvements. One common indicator signalling retail growth among developing countries is an increase in modern retailing. Among these five emerging Asian markets, rural areas still account for the majority of the population, with the highest in 2016 being Sri Lanka at 82%, and the lowest at 60% in Laos, according to Euromonitor Internationals data. Population by Urban Rural split, million people Source: Rural Population: Euromonitor International from national statistics / UN However, rapid urbanisation within these countries is bringing more potential. Although in its early stages, the market is consolidated under a few large players. In Myanmar, City Mart Holding Co Ltd is a local pioneer, having established several hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores and pharmacies throughout the country. Governments are also playing an important role in promoting the growth of 36% 64% 21% 79% 41% 59% 35% 65% 19% 81% URBAN RURAL URBAN RURAL URBAN RURAL URBAN RURAL URBAN RURAL BANGLADESH CAMBODIA LAOS MYANMAR SRI LANKAModern retaIlIng MakIng Inroads Euromonitor International 4 retailing. In Sri Lanka, state-owned retail company Lanka Sathosa Ltd is focusing on small supermarkets, and has the widest network of outlets in the country. In addition to having government regulatory and financial support, the company aims to stabilise market prices to target lower and middle-income households. Other major regional players are realising the potential and have stepped into the fielda trend particularly seen in Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia. Some notable names include Hong Kongs Dairy Farm International, Japans AEON Group in Cambodia, Thailands Big C Supercenter in Laos, and Malaysias Lion Group in Myanmar. While these recent additions are giving local urban consumers more places to shop, modern retailing remains under-developed and there is still room for additional entrants. Modern Grocery Retailing as percent of total Retailing, 2017 Retail rsp ex VAT Source: Retailing: Euromonitor from trade sources / national statistics Of course challenges remain in the development of retailing in these countries. Poor infrastructure in many remote and rural areas makes it difficult to transport a large amount of goods from one place to another. As such, modern retailing has been limited to key cities, such as Phnom Penh and Siem Reap in Cambodia, Vientiane in Laos, Yangon in Myanmar, Dhaka and Chittagong in Bangladesh, and Colombo in Sri Lanka. While modern retailing is making inroads, habits are difficult to change. Many people in these emerging countries still prefer to shop with traditional retailers. Established relationships between retailer and consumer, accessible locations and the ability to bargain for cheaper prices are some of the factors modern retailers are often unable to match. It is crucial for companies to properly identify their target audience and consider the best approach to addressing their needs in order to achieve success in these markets. For international players establishing strong relationships with leading local players can be particularly effective, enabling them to tap into local traditions and customs. One such example is Hong Kongs Dairy Farm Internationals collaboration with Cambodias Lucky Market Group. 1% 9% 1% 3% 18% BANGLADESH CAMBODIA LAOS MYANMAR SRI LANKAModern retaIlIng MakIng Inroads Euromonitor International 5 While challenges remain, the juxtaposition of modern and traditional retailing makes the environments in these emerging countries highly dynamic and offering considerable opportunities. Euromonitor International expects modern retailers to see robust growth over the next few years with traditional players maintaining a key role in meeting consumers daily shopping needs. Euromonitor International 6 INTERNET RETAILING GROWS, BUT SLOWLY Internet retailing remains niche, although there have been some recent developments. Improved internet infrastructure and higher penetration rates have increased access and use. Moreover, the sizeable young populations within these countries is expected to further increase internet retailing, as younger consumers are typically more tech-savvy, highly engaged in social media and willing to try new experiences. The median age in these countries ranges between 23 (Laos) and 33 (Sri Lanka). These consumers are also highly exposed to Western culture through movies, television and music. As such, major sales events such as Black Friday, which began in the U.S., has been promoted in countries such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar. To encourage more customers to shop online, players have used tactics such as free delivery, delivery at odd-hours including weekends and public holidays and collaborations with global payment processing companies such as VeriSign in order to gain customer trust. Large players such as Shwapno in Bangladesh and Kapruka in Sri Lanka also offer fresh grocery and seasonal items relevant to specific occasions, such as the Diwali celebration, during which cakes are sold. Another development, carried out in Kapruka, is an online platform that allows customers to order from international online shops such as Amazon, eBay and Alibaba. For the customer who prefers the convenience of click and shop, these online retailers are truly one-stop shopping solutions. Euromonitor International 7 URBANISATION DRIVES SALES OF PACKAGED FOOD Packaged food is one of the most dynamic FMCG industries in Asias emerging countries. Traditional customs, national delicacies and rising exposure to foreign cultures create a unique mix of trends and opportunities. Rural areas still account for the majority of the population in the markets in question, the highest in 2016 being Sri Lanka at 82%, and the lowest being Laos with 60%. However, urban populations are increasing. Rapid urbanisation, economic growth and the influx of foreign direct investments has resulted in the number of office workers also increasing. More people spending time away from home calls for more convenient and faster ways to prepare meals. For example, instant noodles are gaining popularity in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar, while processed meat and seafood are rising in Cambodia thanks to their quick and mess-free preparation. Snacking is also increasingly common as office workers tend to consume snacks to relieve stress, and because it is more convenient for consumption than traditional meals. Young people and children also prefer modern snack products such as dairy-based ice cream, crisps and chocolate biscuits over more traditional alternatives due to the taste and the advertising support such products receive. As a result, the five emerging countries logged some of the fastest growth rates for ice cream, savoury snacks, sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks among all Asian countries. urbanIsatIon drIves s ales of Packaged food Euromonitor International 8 At the same time, people are enjoying higher levels of education and developing more sophisticated demand with regard to food and beverages. They want products that not only taste good, but are also healthy. Obesity is a growing concern, especially in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Despite limited government efforts to change the situation, many highly educated consumers are aware of the negative impacts of excessive body weight. In Sri Lanka, for example, many households choose breakfast cereals for their children instead of the traditional breakfast of bread or rice with curry, as the former is perceived as healthier thanks to being fortified with nutrients, and containing a lower amount of simple carbohydrates. However, taste remains the most important factor. In Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, even though many people perceive skimmed milk as healthier than full fat fresh milk, most still choose full fat fresh milk because it has a higher quality flavour. Industry players have an opportunity to offer products with higher health values, fortified with nutrients or containing less harmful ingredients, but that maintain a high quality of taste. Thanks to higher disposable incomes and more exposure to foreign, especially Western, culture an increasing number of people are willing to purchase imported products which come at higher prices. Imported items such as cheese, bacon and sashimi-grade raw salmon are popular choices among mid and upper-income households and expatriates. Some of these are still niche products, as they require specific methods of preparation and consumption that not all local consumers are familiar with. Certain products such as imported chocolate are also popular and are commonly given as gifts on Valentines Day and Christmas. Organic products are also seeing rising demand, despite remaining a niche market. Although there are a few organic farmers and manufacturers associations in the five emerging markets, there is still no official body which can certify organic produce. As such, a major proportion of organic items are imported, with certifications such as USDA Organic or EU Organic implemented by foreign bodies. People who actively seek organic products are more proactive in searching for information and can easily recognise the organic certification logos of foreign bodies. Distribution is also limited to mid-range to upper-end grocery retailers. Finally, despite the changing lifestyles, family traditions and values remain at the core of many Asian households. Family meals and gatherings are important on a daily or weekly basis, especially during special events. Packaged food brands are known to tap into the traditions by having products with premium quality and packaging specifically for the festivals, such as Full Moon Festival in Laos