2018-2019年人工智能AI汽车行业应用报告（英文版）.pptx

2018-2019年人工智能AI汽车行业应用报告（英文版）,Advancesindigitalization, artificialintelligence, machine learning, the internet of things (IoT), sensor and camera technology are driving dramatic change and improvements in automotive technology. And these advances are creating a ripple effect throughout the entire automotive ecosystem.,Accident avoidance technology, or advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), are beginning to gain good market traction, and the auto industry is beginning to explore what the implications of these are to auto sales, auto care, auto repair, and auto replacement. Layer in car sharing, and autonomous vehicles, and its clear that the traditional auto ownership model will change.,In 2017 Crash Course we explored market dynamics through the context of an automotive claim. With data and technology driving change into so many aspects of our lives, this year we will instead look through the lens of the full auto ownership life cycle from auto shopping to purchase through vehicle end of life, hoping to provide some visibility into how these will change in the future.,Well begin with the Buy decision, exploring why consumers buy vehicles, how they decide which vehicle to buy, how they pay for the vehicle, how they choose to insure the vehicle, and how auto industry sales have fared to date and what they may look like in the future. Todays vehicles have a natural depreciation and deterioration cycle that ultimately leads to the need for replacement. Will the replacement of the future involve a new vehicle purchase or something like an autonomous vehicle subscription?,When the vehicle is acquired, we move into the Drive phase. In this section, well explore how driving has changed and how it may change in the future. Will overall miles driven continue to grow? Who actually will be doing,the driving? How might insurance change when we consider the change in who is control of the vehicle? With the auto industry reeling from numerous years of significant vehicle recalls, how does more technology that now controls the vehicle itself challenge automakers in the future?,With the focus on crash avoidance and, ultimately, vehicle autonomy, will auto Crash(es) and fatalities fall? And how quickly? Early benefits of ADAS have shown marked improvement to bodily injury claim frequency and costs. How might this change insurance casualty claims? Is the Road to Zero a possibility, and when might we get there?,When the vehicle does crash, and needs Repair, what further changes can we expect in terms of the types of tooling, training, and investment required of collision repairers? How will repair frequency and costs change? With OEMs taking a more active role in providing information on how the vehicle should be repaired, how will that change our industry? And finally, if the vehicle cannot be repaired, what does that mean to the consumer and her decision to jump back to the Buy start of the overall cycle?,Finally, data and intelligence will continue to drive market developments in each of these areas. This year our guest authors will provide some thoughts as to how digitalization, data, analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) are bringing change to our industry today.,“Its Happening” was our 2017 theme for Crash Course and its safe to say that our industry endured a good deal of transformation throughout the year. With the promise of rapidly advancing technology such as AI, this year well provide our viewpoint “Putting the AI in the Automotive Industry.” So, sit back, and we hope you enjoy this years issue of CCCs Crash Course!,executive,summary,05,PART 2,DRIVE,PART 1,BUY,25,PART 3,CRASH,57,PART 4,REPAIR,79,What Americans Are Buying TodayIn 2017, over 90 million vehicles were sold globally.1 The United States continues to be one of the single largest markets for vehicle sales. In 2016, a record 17.55 million light vehicles were sold in the U.S., beating the last record set in 2000. In 2017, auto sales slowed by 1.8 percent to 17.25 million; however, record average new vehicle prices meant a majority of automakers still considered it a very good year (see Figure 1). Most analysts project auto sales will slow to between 16.5 million and 16.9 million in 2018, with less pent-up demand, higher interest rates, and declining used vehicle values driving sales down. At the same time, continued growth in the U.S. population, a strong economy and strong employment, and consumer desire for new auto features such as WiFi and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), will help bring customers back to the showroom, just at a slower rate than the last three years.,Light truck sales achieved a new record 64.5 percent of all new vehicle sales in 2017, as car sales in 2017 fell 11.2 percent while light truck sales grew 4.4 percent (see Figure 2). The average new vehicle transaction price rose 2 percent for the full year (versus 2.5 percent in 2015 and 2016), with December 2017s transaction price of $36,113, settinga new high, and largely driven by higher,light truck sales (see Figure 3).2 Light trucks and full-size pickups in particular-continue to drive a great deal of the profit for automakers, particularly the U.S. automakers.Profit margins on pickup trucks typically are well above 10 percent and can outpace margins on luxury cars.3 With an average selling price of over $47,000 for full-size pickups in November 2017 (with upgrades that price can jump to as much as$60,000), it can be argued that pickups are the newluxury segment.4,05,BUY,For example, Fiat-Chrysler dropped numerous small and midsize passenger cars from its lineup, to instead focus on Jeep SUVs and Ram pickups.5 And despite an expected slowdown in auto sales, in the next 10 years an additional 25 million consumers in the U.S. will move into the 35 to 44 age bracket. LMC Automotive predicts many will opt for bigger SUVs as they move to suburbs, potentially driving up sales of midsize SUVs by 16 percent between now and 2022, whilelarge SUVs may jump as much as 25 percent.6 As auto sales slow in the coming years, sales of these more profitable vehicles will be key as automakers are pressured to maintain profitability while investing billions in new strategies for self-driving andelectric vehicles.7,As the average MSRP of new vehicles has grown, so too have concerns regarding affordability. As of Q3 2017, there were over$1.21 trillion in open automotive loans, with an average loan term length of 69 months.8 Easier credit allowed more buyers from the subprime markets to enter the market again, resulting in slightly higher delinquency rates as the year progressed, particularly among auto finance companies that have historically originated and held more than 70 percent of subprime auto loans.9 Overall however, the outstanding loan balance for the subprime sector has remained fairly steady at about 24 percent of the overall since 2011.10 And while there was some concern that the market might face an auto finance bubble, many banks restructured their portfolios and adjusted their auto finance exposure in 2017.11 Transunion reported declining originations each quarter between Q2 2016 and Q2 2017, and the slowest growth in overall auto- finance balances in Q3 2017 since Q3 2012.12,0.00,2.00,4.00,6.00,8.00,10.00,12.00,14.00,16.00,18.00,20.00,CY1996,CY1997,CY1998,CY1999,CY2000,CY2001,CY2002,CY2003,CY2004,CY2005,CY2006,CY2007,CY2008,CY2009,CY2010,CY2011,CY2012,CY2013,CY2014,CY2015,CY2016,CY2017,CY2018E,7,884,601,7,042,140,8,430,044,8,269,351,6,203,578,0,6,000,000,8,000,000,10,000,000,12,000,000,14,000,000,16,000,000,CY2006,CY2007,CY2008,Cars,8,130,9452,000,0004,000,000Light Trucks,3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%-2.0%,$0,$5,000,$10,000,$15,000,$20,000,$25,000,$30,000,$35,000,$40,000,CY2005,CY2006,CY2007CY2008CY2009,CY2010,CY2011,CY2012,CY2013,CY2014,CY2015,CY2016,CY2017E,% CHANGEFROM PRIOR YEAR,AVG MSRP NEW VEHICLES SOLD,Avg MSRP,% Chg from Prior Year,U.S. Light New Vehicle Sales in Millions (Figure 1)CY1996-CY2017,Light-Truck Share of U.S. New Vehicle Sales (Figure 2)CY2006-CY2017,NADA “Average Selling Price of New Vehicles Sold” (Figure 3)CY2005-CY2017E,Source: Automotive News,18,000,00020,000,000Source: Automotive News,Source: NADA,64.5%60.7%56.7%,53.1%,50.0%,48.4%,50.1%,46.8%,51.2%,50.9%,BUY,moderately, and only within certain segments. Because the volume of newer model year vehicles rose, the aggregate average priceof used vehicles rose. A comparison of the average new vehicle price to the average three-year-old used vehicle price from CY 2010 to 2017 reveals the growing gap(see Figure 5).14 With interest rates expected to rise in 2018, more consumers may optto purchase used versus new from a sheer affordability perspective, particularly as the 12 percent more vehicles coming off lease in 2018 than in 2017 should help keep used prices flat or even down. Residual values are expected to fall further in response to increased supply of used vehicles, although if the MSRP of new vehicles continues torise, this ultimately means the actual price of the used vehicle remains elevated. In other words, if the average MSRP grows from$34,500 to $35,000, and the residual value falls from 50 percent after three years to 48 percent, the vehicle value increases from$17,250 to $18,200.,Leasing has grown in popularity, as consumers can get into a new vehicle every couple of years in a more affordable manner than buying a new car outright.Approximately 29 percent of new vehicle sales were leases in CY 2017, down from 30 percent in 2016 (see Figure 4). However, as vehicle residual values soften and interest rates rise, monthly lease charges rise, making leases less attractive to many consumers.Low interest rates and high residuals made leasing very popular over the last several years consumers got into vehicles with the newest technology for a set monthlypayment; dealers turned vehicles, and resold the lease returns at a premium as certified pre-owned vehicles which achieved a seventh straight record year of sales in 2017 to2.645 million vehicles.13,2017 was expected to be the year when large volumes of these leases would return to market and significantly drive down used vehicle values; however, both wholesaleand retail used vehicle prices softened only,2006-Q1,2006-Q2,2006-Q3,2006-Q4,2007-Q1,2007-Q2,2007-Q3,2007-Q4,2008-Q1,2008-Q2,2008-Q3,2008-Q4,2009-Q1,2009-Q2,2009-Q3,2009-Q4,2010-Q1,2010-Q2,2010-Q3,2010-Q4,2011-Q1,2011-Q2,2011-Q3,2011-Q4,2012-Q1,2012-Q2,2012-Q3,2012-Q4,2013-Q1,2013-Q2,2013-Q3,2013-Q4,2014-Q1,2014-Q2,2014-Q3,2014-Q4,2015-Q1,2015-Q2,2015-Q3,2015-Q4,2016-Q1,2016-Q2,2016-Q3,2016-Q4,2017-Q1,2017-Q2,2017-Q3,New Leases as Percentage of All New Retail Vehicle Sales (Figure 4)CY2006-CY201735%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%,$0,$5,000,$10,000,$15,000,$20,000,$25,000,$30,000,$35,000,$40,000,CY2010,CY2013,CY2014,CY2015,New Price,CY2011CY2012Three-Year-Old Price,Average Vehicle Prices, New vs. Three-Year-Old Used (Figure 5)CY2010-CY2017,Sources: Manheim; Experian; Reuters,CY2016CY2017Source: Edmunds, Wall Street Journal,BUY,Premium growth has been strong coming out of the Great Recession, as consumers purchased more vehicles, and average premiums rose in response to higher frequency and loss costs. According to Insurance Information Institutes analysis of 2014 NAIC data, 78 percent of insureddrivers purchase comprehensive coverage in addition to liability insurance, and 73 percent buy collision coverage.20 Overall premiums continue to shift to the top carriers, with the top 25 carriers share of private passenger auto direct written premium growing from 77 percent in 2000 to 85 percent by 2016(see Figure 7).,As the cost of vehicles has grown, not surprisingly so too has the average premium paid for auto insurance in the U.S. As premiums have risen, many consumers have opted for higher level deductibles. Thisis evident when comparing the share of collision claims by deductible amount ranges. As of 2017, 19 percent of all collision claims had a deductible of $500 or more, versus 4 percent in 2001 (see Figure 8).,Overall used vehicle sales were strong in 2017, as replacement demand from hurricanes Harvey and Irma helped drive sales in October and November. Total used vehicle sales are anticipated to increase by 2 percent for the full year 2017, coming in at 39 million15, with slower growth anticipated in 2018(used sales of about 39.5 million).16 Analysts also project that the increase in popular crossovers and SUVs among off-lease volume and remarketed rental vehicles will help drive used sales in 2018, particularly if interest rates continue to rise and drive more customers into the used marketplace.17 This may help soften the impact of the 11.3 million lease returns expected for the three years ending in 2019; 49 percent more than in the three years ending 2016.18,Insuring the VehicleThe U.S. Private Passenger Auto market rose 7.5 percent to over $200 billion in net premiums in CY 2016 (see Figure 6).19,$0,$50,$100,$150,$200,$250,CY2007,CY2011,CY2012,Liability,CY2008CY2009CY2010Collision/Comprehensive,Private Passenger Auto Insurance Net Premiums (Figure 6)Written in $Billions CY2007-CY2016,53%,53%,54%,55%,77%,81%,84%,84%,85%,0%,10%,20%,30%,40%,50%45%,60%,70%,80%,90%,CY2000,CY2013,CY2014,CY2015,CY2016,Total Share Top 5,Total Share Top 10,Total Share Top 15,Private Passenger Auto Insurance -Share of Direct Premiums Written (Figure 7),100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%,CY2001,CY2002,CY2003,CY2004,CY2005,CY2006,CY2007,CY2008,CY2009,CY2010,CY2011,CY2012,CY2013,CY2014,CY2015,CY2016,CY2017,$0.01 to $250,$250.01 to $500,$500.01 & Up,