财富科技，中国力量（英文版）.pdf

NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK: CHINA AS A NEW FORCE IN THE WEALTH-TECH MARKET AUTHOR Cliff Sheng Morven Mo Chris Yang Sandy Cheng Copyright 2018 Oliver Wyman 2 CONTENTS Preface . 3 1. A glance at the wealth-tech market. 4 1.1. Technologies in wealth management . 4 1.2. Overview of the wealth-tech market . 6 2. Emergence of China forces . 9 2.1. . 9 2.2. . 12 3. China forces in online securities market . 15 3.1. Overview of the global online securities market . 15 3.2. Overview of the China online securities market . 16 3.3. Key success factors for offshore online securities trading . 20 Copyright 2018 Oliver Wyman 3 PREFACE The evolving needs and behaviours of investors, supported by advances in technology, have created opportunities for both traditional players and new disruptors to reshape the wealth management industry. In recent years, new companies have offered wealth management solutions using advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence, big data analysis, cloud computing, and blockchain. These technologies changed the way in which the wealth management business operates. A new segment, wealth-tech, is now on the rise around the world. It focuses on technology-based solutions and aims to enhance and transform the process and results of retail investment. These also helped wealth managers to lower costs and reach a longer tail of potential customers. China has seen a significant accumulation of wealth, leading to demand for offshore investment. In addition, China is becoming a major force in financial technology: It is shaping the wealth-tech industry of the future and taking it to another level. Oliver Wyman is publishing this report to analyse the potential impact of China on the wealth-tech market. It answers the following questions: 1. What and how big is the wealth-tech market? 2. How will China influence the wealth-tech market? 3. How are leading Chinese players reshaping online securities trading? What factors will lead to success? Copyright 2018 Oliver Wyman 4 1. A GLANCE AT THE WEALTH-TECH MARKET 1.1. TECHNOLOGIES IN WEALTH MANAGEMENT Technology has changed the traditional way of wealth management. Retail investors used to manage their wealth through the traditional means offered by banks and securities firms, so they suffered from inconvenience, unfavorable experiences, and high fees. For example, the user interfaces of most banks and securities firms in Hong Kong are based on systems developed for institutional investors, and they are much less user-friendly for retail investors who want to trade online. Despite such suboptimal solutions, commissions are relatively high usually between 0.1 and 0.2 percent. Access to basic market information incurs additional fees. Now, a wide range of technologies is helping to ease these pain points in particular, big data, artificial intelligence, online social networks, and mobile technology and the Internet of things. Figure 1: Example of application of technologies across wealth management market Online brokerage Online marketplace investing Online crowdfunding Online wealth management Big data Targeted marketing Stock price analysis Next product to invest Next product to inves Targeted marketing Product analysis Product portfolio AI Smart customer services KYC matching Fraud identification Smart customer services Portfolio optimization and rebalancing Mobile/IoT Remote account opening Alternative investment channel Alternative investment channel Alternative investment channel Remote account opening Social network Virtual community for investors to share information Big Data Big data offers more-advanced approaches to analyse and use data. It has a range of applications, from customer analysis and product pricing to risk management. Online financial service platforms can adopt more-targeted marketing tactics, such as next-product-to-buy (NPTB) suggestions to increase cross-selling and lead customers to new product offerings. Data can help take risk into consideration when pricing investment products, so making these platforms more competitive. Big data analytics can also facilitate the analysis of multiple data sources in order to create credit profiles. A wider range of data such as online footprint, Internet use, mobile use, and transaction channels can be combined with traditional credit data to generate a more-comprehensive profile of clients. Copyright 2018 Oliver Wyman 5 Artificial Intelligence AI applications are increasingly widespread and complex. An online financial service platform can develop intelligent accounts and portfolios for its customers; investor-matching engines to enhance its competitiveness; or strengthen its risk-management systems and tools. In addition, companies can also leverage AI techniques such as facial recognition, which enables precise and timely identity verification, improving the customer experience throughout the investment journey. Mobile Internet The widespread adoption of wealth-tech is not possible without a high penetration of mobile Internet users. The mobile phone has had great success as a means of financial inclusion s unbanked population masses. Mobile devices are also playing an important role at the opposite end of the market to mobilize wealth and investment management. With mobile Internet access, wealth managers can offer a completely new investment experience, in which customers can manage their investments easily both in terms of obtaining advice and of trading and execution. This further increases the efficiency of the capital market. Social Networks It has been hard for investors to find good teachers and peers, but social networks and the investor community are causing rapid change. Investors who are active within that community can help others obtain useful information. In addition, social networks are a way to interact directly with the best investors and to start building a relationship of trust. Moreover, investors who engage in social trading networks can gain an edge by using the so-called wisdom of crowds. Sharing ideas and past ent of trading literacy can lead to mutual success for all involved. Copyright 2018 Oliver Wyman 6 1.2. OVERVIEW OF THE WEALTH-TECH MARKET When wealth meets technology it creates a new market, and wealth-tech developed rapidly in many countries over the past couple of years. The wealth-tech market can be segmented into the B2B model, in which technology service providers target institutional customers, and the B2C model, in which technology-oriented platforms target retail investors to improve their investment experiences and lower their costs. -tech, which can be further segmented according to type of investment asset in particular assets that are publicly traded and those that are not. We have defined four submarkets: online securities trading, online marketplace investing, online crowdfunding, and comprehensive online wealth management. Figure 2: Types of wealth-tech To C To B PUBLIC MARKET NON-PUBLIC MARKET Online securities trading Online marketplace investing Online crowd funding Comprehensive online wealth management Technology providers i.e. Robinhood Ameritrade Futu Securities Huatai Securities i.e. Charles Schwab Wealthfront Lufax CreditEase i.e. AngelList Wefunder Renrentou ANTSDAQ i.e. LendingClub FundingCircle Yirendai PPDaiCopyright 2018 Oliver Wyman 7 volume of $35 trillion; online marketplace investing, with a volume of $88 billion; online crowdfunding, at $8 billion; and online wealth management, where $5 trillion of assets are under management. Between 20 and 65 percent of the volumes in these submarkets are from China. Figure 3 Global and China wealth-tech market sizes as of 2017 Online securities trading Online securities trading platforms, commonly known as digital brokers, aim to provide an alternative to traditional brokerages by facilitating access to stock market information and investment. Robinhood is the prime example in the United States, while rising Chinese players include Futu Securities. years, from $1.8 trillion in 2012 to $12.7 trillion in 2017, representing compound annual growth of 47.8 percent. (See Section 3.) Online marketplace investing Individuals can also invest in non-standard credit assets through marketplace investing and lending platforms, also known as peer-to-peer platforms. These investments generally yield higher returns than publicly traded fixed income products, and they come with higher credit risks. The underlying assets normally consist of consumer financing or lending to small- and medium-sized enterprises. Wealth-tech market, global vs China Transaction volume, USD 2017 Source: Bloomberg, World Bank, Statista, Oliver Wyman estimation Asset under management, USD 2017 Online securities trading Online marketplace investing Global China Online crowd funding 1.1TN (22%) 3.9TN (78%) Online wealth management 1.6BN (20%) 6.4BN (80%) 56.7BN (65%) 31.0BN (35%) 12.7TN (36%) 22.3TN (64%)Copyright 2018 Oliver Wyman 8 The P2P industry has experienced strong growth in China over the past decade because of large demand from borrowers and investors whose needs were underserved or not served at all by traditional financial institutions. for consumer loans, as well as a secondary loan market to facilitate loan transfers. By 2018, it had already registered 78 million cumulative users. Investors can pick investment products of varying yields and durations. Leading global players include Lending Club and Funding Circles. Online crowdfunding Crowdfunding is the process whereby people invest in an early-stage unlisted company in exchange for shares in the company, which is why it is also known as equity crowd-investing. It lets retail investors act as venture capitalists by investing directly in private companies the kind of investment that was previously limited to wealthy or accredited investors. Globally, a handful of platforms focus specifically on accessing startup investments, for example Angelist and Wefunder. In China, equity crowdfunding only started in 2013. In 2015, Alibaba launched its ANTSDAQ platform and JD started JD Equity Crowdfunding, and in just a year since establishment, JD Equity Crowdfunding has helped 89 startups raise over $170 million and became a leading player in China. While equity-based crowdfunding was relatively slow to get started in China, it is picking up fast and totaled $1.6 billion in 2017. Comprehensive online wealth management Online wealth management is growing in significance. It differs from traditional wealth management in its products, channels, investment philosophy, and services. One typical application is robo-advisory. These platforms offer financial advice or investment management solutions with minimal human intervention, instead utilizing artificial intelligence, machine learning, and file, appetite, and objectives. Leading players in the US include Charles Schwab. In China, Lufax leverages data analytics and artificial intelligence to get an all-round picture of its investors from their credit data, daily transactions, and investment behavior. It can then find the right products for them. Lufax has also launched robo- e wealth management market has grown rapidly and reached $1.1 trillion in assets under management in 2017. Copyright 2018 Oliver Wyman 9 2. EMERGENCE OF CHINA FORCES 2.1. Chinese consumers accumulated wealth as they urbanized. In 2017, the urban population reached 814 million, or 58 percent of the total, and it is expected to reach 899 million in 2022, or 63 percent. (See Figure 4.) Figure 4: Urban vs. rural population in China Continuous waves of urbanization have been the main driver of higher household income, better education, and increasing wealthy for the mass population in lower-tier cities and urban areas. As such, Chinese per capita personal disposable income has continued to grow, albeit at a slowing rate, and reached $3,600 in 2017. (See Figure 5.) Figure 5: Chinas real annual disposable income per capita 48.2% 46.9% 45.7% 44.4% 43.3% 42.2% 37.2% 51.8% 53.1% 54.3% 55.6% 56.7% 57.8% 62.8% 1,432 2012 1,375 2013 2015 2022F 2016 2014 2017E 1,410 1,383 1,390 1,397 1,404 MN people, 20122022F Urban Population Rural Population Source: National Statistics Bureau; China Central Government, World Bank Urban Population 712 734 755 777 796 814 899 Rural Population 663 649 635 620 608 595 533 Total 1,375 1,383 1,390 1,397 1,404 1,410 1,432 USD K, 20122017 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.6 2013 2017 2012 2014 2015 2016 +8% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Oliver Wyman analysisCopyright 2018 Oliver Wyman 10 These increases in disposable income have driven up Chinese personal investa