20230906_国元证券_汽车行业研究报告把握智能电动下半场投资安徽汽车产业链_92页.pdf

S0020521060001 021-5109-7188 2023 9 6 21ZBYxOmRpMpOrPnOtOsNoP9P9RbRsQoOnPnOjMqQxOlOoOzRbRqRqNwMqQvMuOmPnQ 2022 3.19 1700 2023 2375 93 BASE 768 2023 2006 16 2013 2000 16 1 2%Wind Wind 050001000015000200002500030000350002004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20223-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0005001000150020002500300035002003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 3 4 wind wind 74076078080082084034000380004200046000500002004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 3003704405105806501000017000240003100038000450001980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 5 6 wind wind 23027031035039043012000160002000024000280002004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 050100150200250020004000600080001000012000140002004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020()2022 1.26 226 12000 350 250 1.2 4 2667 2 300 4%13 2035 2 4 15 2667 7 2035 2 8 2035 4 Wind Wind 128502000005000100001500020000250002022 2035 3.19400.511.522.533.544.52022 2035 5 2021/,2667 933.5 9/2019 wind,0.042 3.007 1.105 0.332 1.846 00.511.522.533.5 6 6-8 6 2023 2017 2021 2022 67.2 50%20%2023 10 11 Wind Wind-100-500501001502002500500001000001500002000002500002013-01-01 2016-02-01 2019-03-01 2022-04-01%,-8-4048121620-80-60-40-200204060801001202014-03 2015-12 2017-09 2019-06 2021-03 2022-12%GDP%7 2021 2021-2022 40.2 58.2 71%45%RCEP 12 2018-2023H1%13 RCEP Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019 2020 2021 RCEP EU27+18-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2023 214 75.7%2023 9 生产要素 需求条件件相关与支撑产业企业战略企业结构同业竞争机会政府,14 15 9 20 16 17 20 05001000150020002500 100246810122000 2010 2021%18%19%wind wind,-100-500501001502002502023/6/30 2023/5/31 2023/4/300%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 11 20 21,1230.3%25.8%24.7%17.4%1.8%28.9%27.2%22.1%14.4%7.5%2023 4-5 6 17.88 wind,22 13012315161718192023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06:GAIN.:1 2023 70k 2023.3.7-2023.3.31 25k-70k 2023.3.1-2023.3.31 6.5 65k 2023.3.3-2023.3.32 22888-42888 2023.3.11-2023.3.31 Model 3 Model Y 20k-48k Model Y 20%2023.1.6 42k 2023.3.1-2023.3.31 88 8888 2023.3.10-2023.3.31 36 14 1 2 23 15 2017 2500 A00 100 A0 2400 A00 1200 A00 150 1350 2022 650 1-2 25 A00 A0 iFinD-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%01002003004005006007002019-01-31 2019-11-30 2020-09-30 2021-07-31 2022-05-31 2023-03-31A00 A0 A00%A0%24,16 500KM 400KM 26 BEV A00,27 BEV 382.7452.2494.3513.4508.701002003004005006002019 2020 2021 2022 2023508.7407305.20100200300400500600 17 1620 699.46 5 2.52:1 2.32:1 iFinD 28 0246810121402004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 18 29,30 10581983997741042659420200040006000800010000120002022Q1 2022H1 2022 9 2022 2023Q1313760578383885474800100020003000400050006000700080009000100002022Q1 2022H1 2022 9 2022 2023Q119 7 5.5%,N=1527 2022 31 20 2019 32,2022 2022.1-2022.4 33 69.9%47.1%22.7%40.0%7.4%12.9%2016 2022 21 1/3,E.M.Rogers 34 22 20%5 35 5,36 5,21.16%,14.03%,13.81%,11.14%,11.14%,8.02%,7.57%,7.13%,6.01%,20.98%,19.81%,15.61%,12.68%,11.71%,5.37%,5.37%,4.88%,3.90%23 2023 1 DQI 12 101.03 2023 6 95.21 BEV 12 101.71 6 94.90 PHEV 12 99 6 95.43 37 DQI 24 Differentiation Overall cost leadership Focus TIER0.5 38 25波特三大竞争战略 Differentiation Overall cost leadership Focus 智能网联为主一体化压铸、TIER0.5、国产化替代等海外市场战略为主 80%L2 L2.5L3 10%-40%Tesla 39 26 7 43.5%6 49.8%7 54%6 62.7%40 43.5%40.0%41.2%40.8%42.2%42.4%44.6%47.1%47.0%49.8%51.0%49.8%54.0%54.5%54.7%60.5%60.8%57.9%59.4%56.3%58.1%60.8%61.5%62.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2022 7 2022 8 2022 9 2022 10 2022 11 2022 12 2023 1 2023 2 2023 3 2023 4 2023 5 2023 6 27 CAICV 2022 5 L1 55%L2 43.9%2022 6.8 9 L2 41 2022-2023 5 CAICV 1 2 2023 1 2 5 34.9%31.5%42.2%39.5%40.5%42.8%43.3%43.9%13.3%13.5%12.0%13.2%12.1%12.1%11.8%11.1%51.8%55.1%45.8%47.3%47.4%45.2%44.9%45.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2022 2022 5 2023 5 1 2 3 4 5 L2 L1 L028 2015 2025 2020-2025 2016 2018 2020 30%5G-V2X-2020 2021-2035 2021 2023 2023 2 29 42 1 N 1 N 0 1 0 1 30 5G 2025 2490 16.1%2019-2024 1656 1.3 CAGR 51.28%36,44 2019-2024,43 2021-2025 165626164005.35975.28875.213120.435.3%58.0%53.1%49.2%48.5%47.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%020004000600080001000012000140002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 137016301880218024900500100015002000250030002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E31 AI AI NLP CV NLP CV/45 AI NLP CV+AIGC/32 AI AI IHS Markit 46 33 3 IHS Markit,L2 L3 L4 L5 34 60%2026 8000 2021-2026CAGR 30%2018 30.7%2020 45%2025 59.4%2018 5976 24.9%2020 1.37 48.8%2026 4.6 80%,47 2015-2026,48 2018-2026,49 2018-2025 30.7%38.4%45.0%49.4%52.2%55.1%57.6%59.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E35 90%2020 10 IVI 573.45 65.71%34.8%2023 4 10 73.41%12 43.23%39.61%50%54.35 64.9%9.61%ICV TANK 2022 IVI 127.4 2027 168 2022 53.4 2027 73.3 ICV TANK 50 2021-2027 IVI,51 2020-2023 4 10 12.2212.7414.1214.9615.7216.3116.84.775.345.946.326.727.057.330246810121416182021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 IVI IVI 34.80%73.41%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2020 2023 4 36 HUD AR HUD HUD 2020 69 2022 150 2023 4 55 55%HUD 2019 2.5%2021 5.8%2021 5.72%2023 4 9.78%2025 30%AR HUD HUD 2021 5.08 2022 10.96 116%W-HUD AR HUD AR HUD,52 2020-2023 HUD,53 2021-2023 HUD,4 W-HUD AR-HUD 69.29 109.45150.0455.3657.96%38.12%54.98%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0204060801001201401602020 2021 2022 2023 4 W/AR HUD YOY109.45150.0455.365.72%7.53%9.78%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0204060801001201401602021 2022 2023 4 W/AR HUD W HUD AR HUD 2D 3D ADAS AR 4-5 15 37 HUD+2018 6%2023 4 54%2025 116.96 CAGR 15.96%IVI+HUD 54 2017-2023,wind 55 4%6%14%23%37%44.49%53.95%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 10 2022 2023 4 3848.1116.960204060801001201402019 2025E OTA OTA 2020 23.7%2022 49%OTA OTA 2022 74%56 2019-2022 OTA 57 2019-2022 19.70%23.70%36.73%48.77%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019 2020 2021 202249.82%63.25%68%74.33%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%2019 2020 2021 202239 2022 114.7 81.26%2023 5 88.5 79.89%12%300 58 2020-2023 5 59 2022 2.63%5.80%8.66%12.00%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2020 2021 2022 2023 5 172.65114.7020406080100120140160180200 40 2026 570 2022-2026 GAGR 21%2030 1420 2022 19%2022-2026 CAGR 31.7%2022 1.3%2022-2026 CAGR 46%60 2021-2026 61 2019-2022 5 50.784.2174.195.72.60%4.50%8.60%13.70%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0204060801001201401601802002019 2020 2021 2022 5 410%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%01002003004005006007002019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2050 2023 Q2 17.3%7.5%5 62 2016-2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 2023Q2 2040 100%2030 50%2030 23%-33%2030 30%2035/2050 2030/100%2030 2030/2035 2035 100%2030 700 1000 42 6 360,2030 2000 2022 2025 5002023-25 25 L3 2030 2026 200 2030 50%2025 50 10-20 20302025 200 2030 1000 2030 MINI 2025 25 4000 2030 2025 50%2030 2025 50%30 2025 8 2035 520 2025 100 30 150 2035 2030 120 2030 400 200 2025 6 65 2040 2030 30 200 400 43 2023 H1 Stellantis 4.4%24%26%63 2023 H1 TOP15 64 2023 6 BEV+PHEV 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%,21.0%,18.0%,6.1%Stellantis,4.4%,4.0%,3.6%,3.5%,2.8%,2.6%,2.3%,2.3%,1.7%,1.6%,1.3%,1.2%44 2010-2022 4.1 65 2010-2022 TOP5 66 2018-2025 4101126962163401432511281050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0200400600800100012001400160018002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YOY45 2022 Euro NCAP 13 5 ET7 ATTO3 5 67 2019-2022 ENCAP 46 6 7 6 47+68 PULS DM-i 宋PLUS DM-i M5 Pro DM eRX5 PLUS CR-V PHEV PHEV PHEV PHEV RAV4 PHEV 01 PHEV PHEVAION Y PLUS EV U C11ID.4 CROZZAION VID.4 X G3 C Z03 W6 EX5 EQB EQA CR-V RAV4 102030404400 4500 4600 4700 4800PHEV BEV mm 48 2350 200KG 25%30%Model Y 20%8,KG 250 450 25%/KG 35 18 8750 8100+/7.1-30%10%+/-3.2/-2/7100 5200/15850 13300 79 49 69 70 Model Y 50 IHS Markit,71 传统车企价值链 未来车企价值链Tier3Tier2Tier1 OEMOES经销商Tier3Tier2Tier1能源企业互联网通信基建服务内容商业OEM51 72 Tier0.5 TIER0.5 52 KSS mobileye 9 53 54 GDP 12 iFind 73 GDP iFind 74 2021 GDP GDP 2022 45045 20000 GDP 40%2021 GDP 2021 GDP 0.18 12 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,0002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 GDP 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 55 wind 75 2017-2022()76 2022 2019 2022 174.7 42.2 5.98%0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0204060801001201401601802002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 17.4%67%56 2022 696.35 34%215.58吉林415.37广东302.45上海209.18重庆189.59湖北177.00广西174.69安徽133.79陕西124.85浙江119.62山东94.36江苏90.55河北87.11北京76.60辽宁72.48四川60.32天津55.31河南42.74江西37.11福建26.35湖南16.50山西8.26黑龙江6.57贵州5.41内蒙古2.23云南2.20海南1.38新疆 77 2022 2022 696.35 34%415.37 20.28%313.99 15.33%300.44 14.67%281.66 13.75%237.98 11.62%2022 14.05%22.72%3.34%7.15%9.20%25.6%57 79 2018-2021 2021 30.47%31.48%3075.38 95.46 6.37%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002018 2019 2020 2021 78 197 171 233 557 212 72 224 121 210 107 120 29 194 442 305205-305156-205106-15556-1050-55 58 10 5()10 1000/2000/2500/-2000/2000/3000/2000/10()20 3000/3000/3500/4000+1000 4000/4000/5000/3000/20()30 5000/4000/4500/6000+1500 6000/6000/7000/3000/30()5000/4500/5000/8000+2000 6000/6000/7000/3000/2022 59 2023 5 28 33 70%150GWh 1:1.2 600 10000 300 100 410 50%2023 2027 2-3 2025 15 5 20%10%60 2022 234.5 A 115 2020 12 75%MEB 2021 7 MEB MEB 2023 2025 150,80 2022,Omdia,81 1818.428.420.721.4 7.438.936.230.714.739.350.836.418.511549.727.646.6050100150200250 MPV B SUV B A SUV A 6175%50%40%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%6 40GWH PPE 60%50%SSP 20%75 60 2021 2025 20292023 2026 2030 NEW AUTO 2025 20-25 2029 35-40 35 60/2025 300 2029 500 4-5 B C 2025-2030 2020 5 79 2020 12 65.02 75%2022 10 188.7 60%2023 4 51%2023 5 100%TechCo 78.6 2023 5 231 2023 7 50 2023 7 2023 8 2020 2020 NEW AUTO 2030 MED PPE SSP 62 2300 XPT EDS ESS 30 XPT 240kW IM EDS 240kw/h;420Nm 15000 r/m 97%NOP 2023 7 10 NOP+NOP+3500 NIO House 4S NIO House 2023 1 7 58 100 82:,63 2024 NeoPark 16950 100 100GWh/5000 30W-70W ToC 牌 20W-30W 20W 83:NEO Park,64 2020 73 21 96 22 123.27 23 2000 2023 74.14 56%2022 9 16 2025 2025 1000 300 2,84%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0204060801001201402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1()yoy C-DM 44.5%1400km 4.26s ACTECO 1.5TGDI+3 DHT 97.6%90%“1+N 25%L2.5 L4 V2X 65,85 2022H1-2023H1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2023 2022 CPS)6 10 1300+80 180 44%3 3 No.1 No.5 2022 5 TOP20 7 5x 8 3x X70 2001 2010 CKD 66 2023H1 2022H1 4%,86 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 H1 87/%,4.9813.4119.36.9210.5211.8410.99.33-50%0%50%100%150%200%051015202530352020 2021 2022 2023H1 yoy()yoy 67 合资大众 合作华为2016 4 2018 5 27 ES8)2021 3 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20232022 11 17 2017 2022 2 MEB 2020 12 75%2023 12 2018 2019 MDC 2023 68 150 500 132 1000 60 20GWh 130 100 2 100 50 30 2019 24 冲压焊装涂装总装 17 2012 15 CS75PLUSCS15;CS15EV DT 69 2018 2030 88 90 5 IT 89 2016-2022 05001000150020002500050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022(7005101520051015202016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (2018-2030(2023 2025)2025 500 40 4500 28 2030 1500 60 1 91 71 92 AIGC 94 AIUI 1024 AI+93 AI+72(2018-2030 95(2018-2030 96 73 AI AI AI.)97 1 2 T-box V2X3 HUD/98 AI 74:AI 99 AI AI 75:,100 051015202530350501001502002502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(IT 101 2016-2022 102 05010015020025030035040045005010015020025030035040045050020122017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 76:2035 MEMS EDA 103(MEMS)(MCU)(CMOS)MEMS(GaAs)(GaN)(SiC)(Bumping)(FlipChip)(WL-CSP)(TSV)(Fan-out)(SiP)12 8-12 77:+400-105 104 IP EDA IC IC 78,107.UWBWLANSRAMDRAMNORFLASHNANDFLASHEE-PROMIGBT MOS-FETBMS SBC.106 IMU/GPS V2X ECU MCU VCU:CIS MEMS:DSP CPU FPGA ASIC 79-IfinD 108 2022 IfinD 109 2022:-U 80-One box ESC EPB EPB ESC WCBS WCBS 2.0 L3+-2022 110 2021 EPB-111 2022 11 2022 1 TOP12 TOP13 4 5 6 7 TOP18 9 10,28.70%,28.15%ADVICS,9.52%,8.31%,5.20%,5.02%,4.17%,3.41%,2.79%,1%,19.09%,16.77%,14.69%ADVICS,9.24%,6.92%,6.73%,6.35%,5.33%Brembo,4.84%,3.19%81 0500100015002000250030003500400045002023 2024 2025 2026 2027(UTG)70%sensor 2D 3D 2021 9.84 2022 31.38+Sensor G4.5,112 2023-2027-113 2023-2027()0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0500100015002000250030002023 2024 2025 2026 2027(UTG)UTG 82 IFind 114 2020-2022 115 2022-AMK 30%56.7%30.1%13.2%(AMK)30.3332.9743.2527.9030.5831.827.796.316.8511.1826.6527.5934.3422.8120.4321.080204060801001201401602020 2021 2022-83 11.613.116.4242.61.74.18.2051015202530352019 2020 2021 2022 NE 117 2022 2022 116 2019-2022-118,24.70%,11.90%,7.50%,7.10%,6.30%,42.60%,24.60%,14.10%,9.20%,6.70%,5.60%,4.60%,2.90%,32.30%84,2-5 119 2021 2022 12000 120-121 150002000045000050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000500002020 2021 2022,12.10%,7.89%,4.24%,2.60%,2.39%,70.78%85,43.40%,29.85%,8.26%,4.35%,3.98%,2.46%LG,1.86%,43.68%,35.06%,5.91%,5.37%,5.03%,1.38%,19%,19%,14%,11%,11%,26%123 2023 1-6 5.37%2022 SSP UC SSP Rivian Tata VinFast GGll 122 2022-124 2023 1-6 86 87 88 2600-2700 TIER0.5 89 Z23834000),1 2 6 20%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 5-20%6 5%6 5%91:92