20240217_光大证券_床垫行业深度研究专题美国床垫产业一百五十年风云录_122页.pdf

-1-2024 2 17 CSIL 2020 290 2030 1:7 43.15%1 2 3 Sleep Number&Casper Purple DTC 1 2 3 4 40 30 2021 30 EPS PE X 22A 23E 24E 22A 23E 24E 001323.SZ 32.08 1.77 2.01 2.27 18 16 14 603008.SH 15.44 0.61 1.24 1.52 25 12 10 603313.SH 8.83 0.09 0.25 0.85 104 36 10 603816.SH 37.81 2.20 2.46 2.86 17 15 13 Wind 2024-02-08 S0930522010001 021-52523680 S0930522030003 021-52523808 021-52523872 300 Wind -2-1 Spring Air Sleep Number Casper Purple Mattress Firm DTC 2 T10 6000 1 2 -3-1.13 1.1.13 1.2.13 1.3.16 1.3.1.16 1.3.2.17 1.3.3.18 1.4.21 2.23 2.1&.23 2.1.1.23 2.1.2.30 2.1.3&Tuft&Needle.35 2.2&.37 2.2.1.37 2.2.2.40 2.2.3.42 2.3 Spring Air.45 2.4 Sleep Number.51 2.5 Casper.57 2.6 Purple.64 2.7 Mattress Firm.68 3.75 4.79 4.1.79 4.2.84 4.2.1.84 4.2.2.88 4.2.3.93 4.2.4.95 4.2.5.96 4.2.6.96 4.3.96 4.3.1.96 4.3.2.99 4.3.3.104 4.3.4.105 4.3.5.106 4.3.6.107 4.4 0.107 4.5.114 5.121 -4-1 2020.13 2 1974-2020 CAGR 5.5%.13 3 1870-2020.13 4 1990.14 5.15 6 2016-2018.15 7 2017-2026E.15 8“”Sleep Number 360.16 9 10%.16 10“3S”.16 11.16 12 2020.17 13 2020.17 14.18 15 2003.18 16.18 17 2022.18 18.19 19 1950-2022.19 20.19 21.19 22 CPI.20 23 CPI.20 24 2000-2005.20 25.21 26.21 27 Tempur Sealy.22 28 Sleep Number.22 29 Casper.22 30 Purple Innovation.22 31 Serta Simmons Bedding.23 32 Zalmon G.Simmons.24 33.24 34 T3 Pocketed Coil.24 35 Beautyrest Black.25 36 Beautyrest Recharge.25 37 Beautyrest.26 38.26 39 Harry M.Johnson.27 -5-40 1996.27 41.27 42.28 43 1930s“”.28 44.28 45 1979-2009.30 46 1931 17.30 47.30 48.31 49 Mira-Coil Comfort Quilt Perimeter Edge.32 50.32 51 iComfort.33 52.33 53 Logo.35 54.35 55 T&N JT Marino&Daehee Park.35 56 T&N Original Mint Hybrid.35 57 Tuft&Needle.36 58.36 59 Serta Simmons.36 60 Serta Simmons.36 61 Tempur-Sealy.37 62.38 63 Tempur.38 64 NASA Tempur-Pedic.38 65 1997-2012 Tempur.39 66 Tempur.40 67.41 68.42 69“”.42 70.42 71.42 72 Tempur-Sealy.43 73.43 74.43 75 2019.43 76&.43 77.44 78&.44 79&EBITDA.44 80 2017-2026.45 -6-81 2020.45 82 Spring Air.45 83 Spring Air.45 84 Pillow Top.46 85 Spring Air.47 86 Spring Air.47 87 Spring Air.47 88.48 89 2016 Spring Air.48 90 Spring Air.49 91.49 92 Spring Air.50 93.51 94.51 95 QVC Sleep Number.51 96 Sleep Number.51 97 Select Comfort Sleep Number Campaign.52 98 Sleep Number 1100.52 99 Sleep Number X12.52 100 Sleep Number X12.52 101 Sleep Number360.53 102 Sleep Number.53 103 Sleep IQ.54 104 Flex Fit 2 Flex Fit 3.55 105 ISPA Online 2022.55 106 2021 MedTech.55 107 Sleep Number.56 108 Sleep Number.56 109 3D.56 110 LED.56 111 1996-9M2023 Sleep Number.57 112 2007-9M2023 Sleep Number.57 113 2007-9M2023 Sleep Number EBITDA.57 114 Casper.58 115 Casper.58 116 Casper.58 117 Casper.59 118 Casper.59 119 Casper Grow Light.59 120 Casper Snow Technology.59 121 Facebook.60 -7-122 Twitter Casper.60 123 Casper.60 124 Casper.60 125 Casper.61 126.vs.DTC.61 127 2020.61 128 Casper.62 129.62 130“Casper Mattress”.63 131“Casper Mattress”.63 132 Casper.63 133 Casper“”.63 134 DTC.64 135 Casper.64 136.64 137.64 138 Purple Tony Pearce Terry Pearce.65 139 15.65 140 GelFlex Grid.65 141 Purple.65 142 DTC.66 143 Purple.66 144 Purple Innovation.67 145 Purple Innovation.67 146 DTC.67 147 DTC.67 148 DTC.67 149 DTC.67 150 Mattress Firm.68 151.68 152 Mattress Firm.69 153 Sleepys.69 154 Sleepys.69 155 2014 Sleepys.70 156 Sleepys.70 157 Sleepys.70 158 Sleepys EBITDA.70 159 Mattress Firm Sleepys 3500.70 160 Mattress Firm Sleepys LTM2015Q3.70 161 Mattress Firm.71 162 Mattress Firm Sleepys.71 -8-163 Mattress Firm Sleepys.71 164.71 165 Mattress Firm.71 166 Mattress Firm42.6%1.72 167 FY2016Q2 2.1pct.72 168 Mattress Firm.72 169 85%.73 170 Top15.73 171.74 172 FY2021 Mattress Firm.74 173.76 174 2019 67%.77 175 2019.77 176.77 177.78 178.79 179.80 180.80 181.80 182.80 183.81 184 2021.81 185 2017-2022.81 186.81 187.81 188.83 189.83 190.84 191.85 192.86 193.86 194.86 195.86 196.86 197.86 198.87 199.87 200.87 201.87 202.88 203.88 -9-204.88 205.88 206.88 207.89 208.89 209 T10 DeRUCCI AI.91 210 T10.91 211.91 212.91 213.91 214.91 215.92 216.92 217“”.92 218.93 219 PE X.95 220.97 221.97 222 2009-9M2023.98 223 2009-9M2023.98 224.98 225.98 226.99 227.99 228.99 229“”.100 230“”.100 231 Smart Wave+HUAWEI HiLink.101 232 iSleep Ai.101 233.102 234.102 235.102 236.102 237.103 238“”.103 239.103 240.104 241 2022.104 242 PE X.106 243.107 244.108 -10-245.108 246.108 247.108 248.109 249.109 250.109 251.110 252.110 253.110 254.110 255 0.111 256 0.111 257 0.111 258 0.111 259 0.111 260 0.111 261 0 M3 Pro.112 262.112 263.112 264.112 265.113 266.113 267-.113 268.113 269.114 270.115 271.115 272.116 273.116 274.116 275.116 276.116 277.116 278.117 279.117 280.117 281.117 282.118 283.118 284.118 285.118 -11-286.119 287.119 288.119 289 618.119 290 2022.120 291 500.120 -12-1 5.16 2 2022 TOP10.17 3.26 4.33 5 Tempur-Pedic.39 6 Spring Air.47 7 Spring Air 2005.49 8 Sleep Number.55 9 Casper.62 10 GelFlex Grid Tempur.65 11 Purple GelFlex Grid.66 12.75 13 2019 Top15.78 14 2023-2025.82 15.83 16.83 17.83 18.85 19.89 20.90 21.94 22.95 23.96 24.100 25.104 26.106 27.106 28.114 29.120 30.121 -13-1 1.1 CSIL 2020 290 2030 1:7 43.15%ISPA 1974-2020 CAGR 5.5%2008-2009 2018-2019 1 2020 2 1974-2020 CAGR 5.5%CSIL ISPA Mattress Firm 1.2 150 3 1870-2020 ISPA Mattress Firm Simmons Serta Spring Air Tempur Purple furniture today 1870s1990s 4S 1870 Simmons -14-Sealy Spring Air 1970 Ohio Mattress 1870 1990 120 4S Simmons(Serta)Sealy Spring Air 4 1990 Furniture Today 1990s2013 1990 1990 8 5 1990 2009 Ares Management Ontario Teachers pension Plan&Serta&Simmons 2013&Tempur&Sealy KKR Kohlberg Kravis Roberts 20142016 2012 Tuft&Needle Amazon 2014 Casper Casper 2015 Purple Innovation DTC Furniture Today 2014/2016/2018 6%/12%/21%15pcts 2018 36.4 -15-5 6 2016-2018 Furniture Today Furniture Today Mordor Intelligence 2017 22%2020 23.6%2021-2026 0.5pcts 2026 26.8%7 2017-2026E Mordor Intelligence 2017 2011 Serta iComfort 2014 Sleep Number Sleep Number X12 2017 Sleep Number 360 2017 1 Sleep Number 360 CES Sleep Number APP CES Sleep Number 360 2017 50.6%ISPA 2016-2018 2018 12%32.2%-16-8 Sleep Number 360 9 10%Google Trends 2023 11=100 2004 1 ISPA Furniture Today 1.3 1 2 3 1.3.1 2006 5 Sealy Tempur Simmons Serta Sleep Number 2011-2020 CR5 60%10 3S 11 Furniture Today Furniture Today 1 5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 Serta Serta Serta Serta Serta Serta Serta Serta Sealy Sealy 2 Sealy Sealy Sealy Sealy Sealy Sealy Sealy Sealy Simmons Tempur 3 Simmons Simmons Simmons Simmons Simmons Simmons Simmons Simmons Serta Simmons 4 Tempur Tempur Tempur Tempur Tempur Tempur Tempur Tempur Tempur Serta 5 Sleep Number Sleep Number Sleep Number Sleep Number Sleep Number Sleep Number Sleep Number Sleep Number Sleep Number Sleep Number Furniture Today -17-2015 Casper Purple DTC Furniture Today 2015 5 75.8%2020 60.6%Mattress Firm 2022 35.6 1.7 2 2022 TOP10/1 Mattress Firm 3558 2 Amazon 2090 3 Sleep Number 1750 4 Walmart 1133 5 Ashley HomeStore 1111 6 Costco 836 7 Resident 700 8 Rooms To Go 667 9 Avocado Green Brands 499 10 Tempur Sealy International 476 Furniture Today 2020 Mattress Firm Sleep Number 40%Purple Casper Mattress Firm Sleep Number 51%12 2020 13 2020 Mattress Firm Mattress Firm 1.3.2 1993 19%56%2010 43%38%2003 Furniture Today -18-14 15 2003 Furniture Today Furniture Today ISPA 2020 87%2016 2pcts Furniture Today 2022 34.2%16 17 2022 ISPA Furniture Today DTC Casper 2015 3Q2021 Casper 72 Amazon Costco 20 1.3.3 1 2009 2 2009 -19-18 19 1950-2022 CSIL iFinD 2021-2022 CSIL WIND 80%2002 85%2006 80%2008 iFinD 2009-2020 CAGR 1.06%CAGR 4.75%20 21 iFinD iFinD 80 8 27 2018 383.5 2004-2018 CAGR 2.8%CPI CAGR 2.1%CPI CAGR-1.0%-20-22 CPI 23 CPI wind 13 wind 13 Furniture Today 2000/2002/2004/2005 1000 14%/17%/25%/24%2005 2000 10pcts 24 2000-2005 Furniture Today ISPA 2022 1000 32%2015 24%8pcts 2022 1000 60%2015 53%7pcts 500 14%2015 4pcts 1983 Stearns&Foster Sealy 2006 Beautyrest Black 2000 Sleep Number 2017 360 Sleep Number 2022 Purple Intellibed -21-25 26 ISPA Tempur Sealy ISPA Tempur Sealy 1.4 4 2000 1999 6 2000 5 Sleep Number 2001 5 18 0.33/2003 11 28 17.94/50 2008 2008 2007 69 2009 57 9 Sleep Number 2008 12 24 0.20/2012 4 18 35.24/170 Tempur 2009 3 2012 4 20 2020 2020 2020 2021 Sleep Number 8 Purple Innovation 7 Casper 2 Tempur Sealy 2022 1 2020 3-2022 1 7 -22-27 Tempur Sealy 28 Sleep Number 2023 11 30 2023 11 30 29 Casper 30 Purple Innovation Casper 2022 1 2022 1 24 2023 11 30 -23-2 Sleep Number&Casper Purple DTC 2.1&Beautyr 2012 Advent International 30&34%31 Serta Simmons Bedding Serta Simmons 2.1.1 1870 Zalmon G.Simmons 1876 9 14 1895 -24-32 Zalmon G.Simmons 33 Simmons Simmons 1899 James Marshall Beautyrest 1958 1995(BackCare)2000 75 No-Flip 2003 T3 Pocketed Coil 162 3.5,34 T3 Pocketed Coil Simmons -25-2006 Beautyrest Black Beautyrest Black T3 Pocketed Coil BlackIce 4.0 BeautyEdge Beautyrest Black L-Class C-Class RightTemp K-Class RightTemp 2000 C-Class K-Class 20%30%35 Beautyrest Black 4sale 2007 Comfor Products Comfor-Pedic 2012 Beautyrest Recharge AirCool Smart Response 36 Beautyrest Recharge Simmons -26-37 Beautyrest Simmons 3 201821066503.9(100)(200)(300)(100)(200)(300)+/A 201830507410.4 8 50 38 Simmons -27-1931 Harry M.Johnson Mellon Institute of Industrial Research Harry 8 35 1958 1957 NTC)1975(Simmons Research Centre)1996 James Maas Power Sleep James Wellman 39 Harry M.Johnson 40 1996 Simmons Simmons+1927 1929 H.G.41 Simmons -28-1950 Beautyrest 1996 Beautyrest Beautyrest 50%42 Simmons 30 43 1930s 44 Simmons Simmons 1970 500 1973 1974 21%11%1978 1979 1985 Wickes Corporation Wickes Corporation 1986 Wesray Capital 1.2 Wesray Capital 20 80 Wesray Capital 1989 Wesray Capital ESOP -29-2.41 Wesray Capital 2 1991 3 3200 60 30%1993 Zenon Nie 1996 20 90 1996 3 Investcorp Investcorp 2.65 85%15%ESOP 1997 5.5 1998 Fenway Partners 5.13 75.1%5.9%13.7%Investcorp 5.3%1998 15%Charles R.Eitel Zenon Nie 2000 7.27 2003 Sleep Country USA 2003 Thomas H.Lee Partners THL 11.15 3.878 THL 3.27 Fenway Partners 7.45 2004 12 2.69 10 THL 1.37 2006 8 55 Sleep Country USA 5500 The Sleep Train Inc.2007 THL 3 2.38 THL THL 1991 1.64 2007 13 THL 2008 2003 2009 9 25 11 Ares Management Ontario Teachers pension Plan 7.6 National Bedding Company LLC Serta Serta Simmons Bedding -30-45 1979-2009 Furniture Today 2.1.2 1930 1931 13 Sleep.Inc Sleep.Inc 13 Sleep.Inc 13 1932 Perfect Sleeper Perfect Sleeper Sleep.Inc 46 1931 17 47 Serta Serta 1933 Sleep.Inc Serta-Sleeper Associates 1940 National Bedding Company(34 27)Serta Associates Serta International iComfort 1932 Perfect Sleeper 1950 1970 -31-1976 Pillow Soft mattress PillowSoft 1983 Perfect Sleeper Mira-Continuous Support Innerspring 95%Z Z 49%86%48 1990 1992 Co 1996 Perfect Sleeper Perim -32-Perfect Sleeper 49 Mira-Comfo Perimeter Serta 2000 800 Perfect Night 2003 2005 Fire Blocker 2011 iComfort 50 Furniture Today iComfort Smart Care APP 15 iComfort TempActive FuzeGel iComfort -33-FusionGel 25%PCM 2021 iComfort 30 51 iComfort 52 Serta TSC 8+Queen Size 549-3399 4 Queen Size EZ Tote 549 Serene Sky 599 Perfect Sleeper Mattress-in-a-Box 699 HexCloud Perfect Sleeper 1199 Serta Shinola 1199 Shinola iComfort 1599 -34-iComfort Hybrid 1599 Serta Arctic 3399 2023 11 28 1950 Bob Hope Show The Tonight Show 1960 1965 39 1992 logo 1993 mattress()2000 Aardman Animation Serta Counting Sheep 2008 -35-53 Logo 54 Serta Serta 2012 6 2011 7 2014 Perfect Sleeper iComfort Omni 2.1.3&Tuft&Needle Tuft&Needle 2012 DTC T&N Original Mint Hybrid T&N Amazon T&N 55 T&N JT Marino&Daehee Park 56 T&N Original Mint Hybrid azcentral T&N Amazon T&N 2013 T&N 100 2014 900 2015 T&N 4200 2015 T&N GOOGLE 2016 T&N 1.5 2018 1.7 T&N 2017 Entrepreneur TIME -36-2018 9 28&SSB T&N SSB T&N T&N JT Marino Daehee Park SSB SSB SSB SSB T&N SSB&S B S 57 Tuft&Needle 58 T&N T&N Serta-Simmons 2012&2012-2017 Serta Simmons 2018 Mattress Firm Sleep Number 59 Serta Simmons 60 Serta Simmons Furniture Today Furniture Today 2001 Furniture Today Furniture Today 2012&AOT Bedding Super Holdings 30 2022 3.45 2023 8 11 19 2023 1 6 19 3.15 1 -37-2.2&2013 Sherwood Bedding Dreams 61 Tempur-Sealy Tempur Sealy 2.2.1 1962(NASA)()1966 NASAs Ames Research Center Chiharu Kubokawa Stencel Aero Engineering Corporation Charles A.Yost 10 NASA 20 80 NASA Fagerdala World Foams 1988 1990 1991 Tempur-Pedic 1992 Tempur-Pedic Tempur-1999 9 Tempur-Ped Tempur World holding company 2002 11 TA Associates,Inc.(TA)Friedman Fleischer&Lowe,LLC(FFL)Tempur-Pedic International Inc.Tempur World TA FFL Tempur-Pedic International 79.7%-38-2003 Tempur-Pedic International Furniture Today 2001 80%4S Serta Sealy Simmons Spring Air 60%()()90%62 Sleepopolis 1996 Tempur 1998 5 Tempur-Tem Space Technology Hall of Fame 2003 63 Tempur 64 NASA Tempur-Pedic Tempur Tempur -39-90(1946-1964)NASA 1998-1999 45%39%1999-2002 CAGR 36%2002 70%2012 14 1997 5880 23 Spring Air 65 1997-2012 Tempur Tempur 1 1997 1998 1997/05/01-1998/04/30 1998/05/01-1999/04/30;2 1999-2012 01/01-12/30;3 1999 Tempur 1999-2002 Tempur CAGR 36%4 1999 1999/01/01-1999/12/30 1998/05/01-1999/04/30 Tempur-TEMPUR-Cloud TEMPUR-Adapt TEMPUR-ProAdapt TEMPUR-LuxeAdapt TEMPUR-PRObreeze TEMPUR-LUXEbreeze 5 Tempur-Pedic Tempur-Cloud All-Foam Medium(5)$1,999 Tempur-Adapt All-Foam Medium(5)$2,199 Hybrid Tempur-ProAdapt All-Foam,Hybrid Soft(2-3),Medium(5),Firm(7-8)$2,999 Tempur-LuxeAdapt All-Foam Soft(2-3),Firm(7-8)$3,699 Tempur-PRObreeze All-Foam,Hybrid Medium(5)$3,999 Tempur-LUXEbreeze All-Foam Soft(2-3),Firm(7-8)$4,699 Tempur 2023 10 -40-66 Tempur 2001 2004 2.2.2 Sealy Wuliger KKR 1881 Daniel Haynes Mattresses From Sealy Sealy Sealy 1920 Sealy 28 1956 Wuliger Ohio Mattress Sealy Ernie Wuliger 1 1 2 3 Sealy 1987 Wuliger Sealy Inc.1989 Ernie Wuliger 4.27 Ohio Mattress GGVA Gibbons,Green,Van Amerongen 9.4 Ohio Mattress Wuliger Sealy 75 20 90 Ohio Mattress 1990 Ohio Mattress Sealy Corp.1993 Zell/Chilmark Fund 2.5 Sealy Corp.94%1997 2004 3 KKR 15 Charlesbank Capital Partners JP CIBC Argosy Merchant Fund BancBoston Capital Sealy Corp.2006 Sealy Corp.1949 1950 -41-(Dr.Robert G.Addison)1988 WIPO 2001 ec 2012 itanium)2014 SynerFlex 2019 9 9 Align Support TM 67 Sealy(Unikey)Miracle Edge Plus Corner Support -42-68 69 Sealy 2008 2009 13.32%12.56%2008 2009 2013 2.20 3s 70 71 Wuliger 1970 1978 1980 2011 2.2.3&2013&-43-72 Tempur-Sealy 73 2019&74 75 2019 ISPA ISPA&Sealy Stearns&Foster Tempur-Pedic 76&DTC listings brand website retailer listings 2021 5 27 -44-&2013 2020 90%77&2017&Mattress Firm 2017 13.7%2019&Mattress Firm 14.9%2021 49.31 34.10%2021 5 3.4 Dreams Dreams 2020 3.27 2023 5 40+Mattress Firm 2024 78&79&EBITDA Mordor Intelligence 2020 26.34%-45-80 2017-2026 81 2020 Mordor Intelligence Mordor Intelligence 2.3 Spring Air Spring Air 1925 Francis Karr Francis Karr Karr Francis Karr 1926 Francis Karr Spring Air Francis Karr 1940 Spring Air+82 Spring Air 83 Spring Air Spring Air Spring Air Francis Karr 40 Francis Karr Bates 5 1953 Spring Air Health Center -46-1973 Spring Air Pillow Top Pillow Top 1980 Spring Air Spring Air 84 Pillow Top eachnight Spring Air 1953 Health Center 1990 Spring Air 7 Spring Air 7 7 7 Spring Air Spring Air 21 Furniture Today 2000 Spring Air 4.2 9.13%-47-85 Spr