20231208_银河证券_2024年有色金属行业策略报告拐点终至周期归来_66页.pdf

2023 2023 A 2024 2024 2024 2024 16 2500/A 2024 A 2024 2024 600547.SH 952 54.3 0.51 0.68 45.2 33.9 600489.SH 517 20.9 0.59 0.68 18.1 15.7 000933.SZ 338 5.8 2.51 2.97 5.8 5.3 300748.SZ 239 50.8 0.56 0.77 34.4 25.0 Wind 12 7 1 2 3 4 T abl e _ R es earch-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%300.2023.3.6.8.11.13.14.16.21.24.27“”“”.29.37.41.2023.43.44.47.50.53.57.58.0YBYvMnQtQoPsMnOtOqPmN8O9R6MoMoOmOsReRqRtRfQqRrM9PmMwOMYtPmPvPsPoR 2023 A 11 24 A 2023 10.18%1.56%300 8.62%A 2023 2023 1 6-7 8.62%SW31 A 2023 21 2023 A 8.84%4.87%10.23%7.11%36.29%15.28%6.20%2.24%1.11%2023 2023 A-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%2023“”2023 A A 2023 1 14.67%SW31-2023 A 2023 2023 A A 11 A TTM 15.84x A A 15.74%2013 89.08 A 2023 4/3 14001600180020002022-12-01 2023-04-01 2023-08-01-60%-40%-20%0%20%5%6%7%8%9%2022-07 2023-01 2023-07(-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%16.35x 2.00 x 2013 39.52x 2.75x 10 9.08%10-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0204060801002013-01-04 2016-01-04 2019-01-04 2022-01-04 A A SW 0501001502002013-01-04 2017-01-04 2021-01-040.01.02.03.04.05.06.02013-01-04 2017-01-04 2021-01-040%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2023 2024 2024 2022 2023“”10 100 5.25%-5.50%100-107 9 2024 2023 0.6 1.5%2024 2 2024 2024 7 9 PMI GDP 4.9%4.5%2024 2024 GDP 5.2%51.4%2023 3%2024 5.4%20 2023 95105115125 12001400160018002022-03-01 2023-03-01 PMI 2024 22 4 20%23 7 1.6%8 2.4%22 3 15.42%23 7-0.48%8-0.06%2024 2024 2024 2024 A 2024 61%59%48%43%56%42%49%60%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%5001500-10%0%10%20%2004-03 2011-03 2018-03 GDP(GDPWind405060702020-08 2021-08 2022-08 2023-08 PMI ISM PMI PMI050010001500-20%0%20%40%2000-01 2008-01 2016-01 CRB 2022 2022 6 11 4 75 2023 6 4 25 10 10 4.24%1.73%2023 4 3.3%1.06%2022 1780/2023 5 2082/10 1810/10 2000/2023 2024 CPI 2022 6 9.1%2023 10 CPI 3.2%3.3%0%10 CPI 4%2021 4.1%0.2%16001680176018401920200020800%1%2%3%4%5%6%2022-09-01 2022-12-01 2023-03-01 2023-06-01 2023-09-01 10 10 10/2023 CPI 2024 CPI 1 2024 2%2024 CPI 2.4%2024 CPI 2%2024 2023 2023 GDP 4.9%4.5%2.1%2023 1 2 3 2023 2024 0%2%4%6%8%10%CPI(%)CPI(%)0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%CPI(%)CPI(%)2024 GDP 2023 2.3%2024 1.1%4.4%2024 2023 2%11 10 2007“”2024 9 2023 2024 CME 2024 2024Q2 2024 100bp-80%0%80%160%240%030006000900012000150002019-01 2021-01 2023-01 0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%2024 2024 16 2024 10 2023 4.4%3.75%2018 2020 2015-2018 2019-2020 1990 5 2020 2023 2024 0%2%4%6%2005-07-01 2012-07-01 2019-07-01 10 200700140021002800-2%0%2%4%6%2003-01-02 2007-01-02 2011-01-02 2015-01-02 2019-01-02 2023-01-02 10 10/1994 2 4-1995 2 1 6-1.98%-12.24%3-1.98%-11.37%1-1.63%-3.56%1-0.15%-4.38%3 2.91%21.81%6 1.75%7.54%2.10%8.44%1-0.01%1.82%3 0.09%7.29%6 3.24%9.02%1996 1 31-1997 3 25 6-8.58%4.71%3-5.36%5.82%1-0.99%-0.37%1-2.10%-8.22%3-3.19%-7.64%6-7.15%-8.06%-15.33%3.63%1-0.68%-5.79%3-3.06%-8.22%6-5.35%-4.90%1999 6 30-2000 5 16 6-6.20%-1.77%3-8.76%-4.30%1-2.04%-2.53%1 5.11%0.90%3 0.13%-3.20%6-3.37%-6.69%-3.21%-9.59%1-0.64%4.31%10001200140016001800200022000%1%1%2%2%3%3%2015-01-02 2017-01-02 2019-01-02/3-3.76%-4.42%6 0.51%-5.19%2004 6 30-2006 6 29 6 14.86%16.56%3 4.29%-4.55%1-10.79%-19.53%1 7.34%10.21%3 1.70%11.27%6 7.88%24.28%21.30%24.86%1 6.91%5.56%3 12.52%7.79%6 38.83%56.83%2015 12 17-2018 12 20 6-1.13%-9.30%3 4.25%3.79%1 3.00%2.29%1 1.57%3.32%3 3.49%3.72%6 9.51%3.79%11.67%8.36%1 8.47%14.65%3 7.25%13.21%6 11.94%11.03%Wind 1980 2 71 74 2 2024 96.5 1980 7 25-55 95.4%1985 2 25 1985 2 26-71-51.1%1991 2 11 1995 5 9-80 48.8%2002 1 31 2002 2 1-74-40.6%2008 4 16 2011 5 2-136 56.5 2022 9 27 Wind 2024 2012 A 32x 10 15.66%A A 2-3 A-2000200400600 70901101301501701979-01-02 1994-01-02 2009-01-02-80%20%120%1802803802008-01-01 2016-01-01/A%-40%-20%0%20%40%2012-062013-032013-122014-092015-062016-032016-122017-092018-062019-032019-122020-092021-062022-03SHFE A 01000020000300002013-11-01 2017-09-15 2021-08-13SW 19.24x 30.56x41.88x 53.20 x 64.52x0%50%100%150%2013-11-01 2017-09-15 2021-08-13SW PE Wind 12 7 2023 SMM 10 4299 6.57%10 4519 2017 4554 2017 2022 2023 6-7 203 8 555 2023 112 2023 11 0%2%4%6%45004510452045302022 9 2023 2 2023 7 0%2%4%6%8%10%37203840396040804200432044402022 9 2023 2 2023 7 2023 122.7 2024 70 30 4.5 0 2023 4.5 0 4.5 19 19 2023Q1 0 0 19 10 10 2023Q1 0 0 10 5 3 2023/7 2 0 3 6 0 2023/4 6 0 0 11 8.2 2023/1 3 0 8 6 2.8 2023/4 6 0 0 20 20 2023/2 0 0 20 3.5 3.5 2023/3 0 0 3.5 28 28 2023/3 0 0 28 28 28 2023/2 0 0 28 8 0 0 0 0 4 4 2023/3 0 0 4 123.2 123.2 2023/6 0 0 123.2 36 36 2023/6 0 0 36 18 18 2023/6 0 0 18 14 3 2023/7 11 0 3 11 11 2023/3 0 0 11 12.5 12.5 2023Q2 0 0 12.5 367.7 330.2 29.5 0 330.2 11.2 11.2 0 2023/1 0 0 11.2 26 15 11 2023/1 0 11 26 108 53 53 2023Q2 0 0 55 12.5 12.5 0 2023Q2 0 0 12.5 10 8 0 2023/1 0 0 8 10 10 0 2023Q3 0 0 10 177.7 111.7 64 0 11 122.7 2024 35 17 5 13 70 SMM 223 2023 2022 2020 8 LNG TTF 40%()10.55 2023 5 22.8 2024 2023 7 1635 0.44%0204060802020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-07/-4%-2%0%2%4%6%19002000210022002300240025002019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 Alumar 44.7 44.7 2021/9 Aluar Puerto Madryn 46 23 2021/9 Albras 46 11.5 2022/4 CBA 43 8 2022/4 Aluminium Dunkerque Industries 28.5 10.55 2023/1 AWAC Portland 35.8 1.8 2023/3 Kitimat 43.2 28 2022/7 287.2 127.55 2023-2026 53.15 30.85 127 157.35 2023-2026 82%2023 2024 2025 2026 INALUM Asahan 2 2 Adaro 50 50 150+25 25 25 25 200 25 25 100 25 25 200 100 200 PC Cita Mineral Investindo Tbk 50 100 30 60 Taishetl Rusal 22 5.85 42.85 Arvida Rio Tinto 2.65 2.35 2.65 NEO Aluminio Colombia 54 Angul Naico 50 Jh Vedanta 3.5 3.5 BALCO Vedanta 41.5 Mahan Hindalco 5 100 100 53.15 30.85 127 157.35 1561.4 ALD SMM 2023 10 3445.8 3.5%10 95.1%2010 11 115 2023 4161 3.8%2024 4291 3%2023 7 60.18 144%87%7 52.17 715%2023 2022 8 2023 2022 2023 2020-2021 106 157 2023 110 132%2024 75 32%75%80%85%90%95%100%2010-112011-112012-112013-112014-112015-112016-112017-112018-112019-112020-112021-112022-11-8%-4%0%4%8%12%01002003004002021-10 2022-04 2022-10 2023-04()-5051015202530-6000-4000-200002000(/)2023 2023 1-7 2401 3.5%30%4.3%1.7%5.7%15.8%2022 15%8.62 40 2023 2023 1-8 4.37 19.2%2.84%20 7 20%8-9 7.31%10.43%2020-2021-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%200220240260280300320340360380-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050100150200250300350-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,0002022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-08:-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0102030405060708090100-2022 2023-2024 10.28 10.59 2023-2024 19%3%2018 2022 105/2023-2024 1079 1112 180 33 4.4%0.7%2023 SMM 2023 1-8 318W 65.6%2023 1-8 113GW 140%GW 0.65 0.7 2023 1-7 240.6 CPIA 2023 2024 433GW 533GW 2023 2024 140GW 240GW 2023 2024 250 339 52.7%35.6%2021 2022 2023E 2024E GW 182 289 433 533 82.3%78.5%80.0%82.00%GW 55 87 140 240 GW 0.65/GW 0.7/GW-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%(-15%-5%5%15%-15-55152022-11 2023-02 2023-05 2023-08 118.2 187.7 281.5 346.5 38.5 60.9 98.0 168.0 157 249 379 514 YOY 58.6%52.7%35.6%103 164 250 339 GW 221 368 541 650 GW 170 230 350 450 GW 0.65/GW 0.7/GW 143.5 239.2 351.8 422.5 154.6 257.6 378.9 455.0 251 382 568 715 YOY 51.8%48.9%25.7%165 251 374 470 SMM CPIA 2.73:1 2024 2025 28%23%10%8%2024 2025 10%8%CPIA SMM CPIA SMM CPIA SMM 2023-2024 4256 4365 4.2%2.6%2021 2022 2023E 2024E SMM 2023-2024 2023 11 LME 47.19 12.03 64.4 6 10 11 2021 2022 2023E 2024E SMM 2023Q4 19000/2016-2017 2020-2021“”0200000400000600000800000100000012000002000-01-062001-01-062002-01-062003-01-062004-01-062005-01-062006-01-062007-01-062008-01-062009-01-062010-01-062011-01-062012-01-062013-01-062014-01-062015-01-062016-01-062017-01-062018-01-062019-01-062020-01-062021-01-062022-01-062023-01-0601000000200000030000004000000500000060000002000-01-042001-01-042002-01-042003-01-042004-01-042005-01-042006-01-042007-01-042008-01-042009-01-042010-01-042011-01-042012-01-042013-01-042014-01-042015-01-042016-01-042017-01-042018-01-042019-01-042020-01-042021-01-042022-01-042023-01-0401002003001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 20202019 2018 2017 2019 2021 2023 2023 2023Q1 17381/16407/2023Q1 1077/2115/2023Q3 2735/10 3187/2024 90001400019000240002015-01-05 2017-01-05 2019-01-05 2021-01-05 2023-01-05/2016-2017+2020-2021+2023-+15,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,00027,00029,00031,00033,00035,0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 A A A PE 14.16 2018 30.04 8 PE 19.83%2023Q1 A PE 2024 A PE 15002000250030003500400045008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,000 0100020003000400050006000700080009000-50000500010000100001500020000250002013-12-30 2016-12-30 2019-12-30 2022-12-30/2019 2021 2023 140 250 2226 140 36 36%250 2018 24%100%100%305 170 120 810 251 132.4 58.25%120 451 80 56 60 113.5 56 60 52%66%100%90%2000MW 6*350MV 4121MW 47%80%-90%23%157 8 6 2 2023 97.4 72.68 57.8 306 73.32 102.33 1011 37.97 24.28 27.61 137 020004000600080001000012000140002016-01-08 2018-12-21 2021-11-19SW 11.17x20.61x 30.05x39.49x 48.93x0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2016-01-08 2018-12-21 2021-11-191500250035004500550010000140001800022000260002016-01-04 2020-01-04/A050100150-500005000100002016-01-04 2020-01-04/A PE 57.65 4.2 2.15 2023 245 160 115 670 140 250 2020 82 53.2 55 280 137 7.8 4 1 6+11 40 3 200 20 30 4 30 10 40 wind 000933.SZ 002532.SZ 000807.SZ Wind 12 7 2023 2023 6 9 2023 2023 10 20%TC 7%93/3.4%7531/ICSG 2023 1-8 1772.5 4.7%10 2023 49 490005000051000520005300054000550005600057000580005900060000500005500060000650007000075000 1#,/20%,/05000100001500020000250003000035000/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000,/2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023H1 Freeport-McMoRan Copper&Gold 458 488 479 485 438 484 98%Grupo Mexico SAB de CV 222 215 2326 244 230 235 106%Southern Copper Corp 195 189 209 219 203 227 112%First Quantum Minerals Ltd 182 175 177 206 139 170 86%Vale SA 51 51 67 60 61 71 130%Teck Resources Ltd 61 72 66 65 57 64 91%Lundin Mining Corp 65 64 64 57 61 53 88%Barrick Gold Corp 46 54 56 98 40 48 87%HudBay Minerals Inc 25 26 22 32 23 22 88%Boliden AB 25 27 26 21 21 21 80%Taseko Mines Ltd 10 19 13 12 11 13 85%Bloomberg USGS 0102030405060708090100 20%TC,/-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%050000010000001500000200000025000002020-01-012020-03-012020-05-012020-07-012020-09-012020-11-012021-01-012021-03-012021-05-012021-07-012021-09-012021-11-012022-01-012022-03-012022-05-012022-07-012022-09-012022-11-012023-01-01-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10000.0012000.0014000.0016000.0018000.0020000.0022000.0024000.00:ICSG ICSG 2024 2009-2011 2010 2010-2012 115%2013 2020 2021 125%2022 2021 2021-2022 38%2023 10 2022 3 26%1-2 2023 2025 Bloomberg Bloomberg-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%0500010000150002000025000300002010-012010-112011-092012-072013-052014-032015-012015-112016-092017-072018-052019-032020-012020-112021-092022-072023-05(+)-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%0.00500.001000.001500.002000.002500.003000.002004-082005-092006-102007-112008-122010-012011-022012-032013-042014-052015-062016-072017-082018-092019-102020-112021-122023-01:-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02000040000600008000010000012000020032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 020004000600080001000002000040000600008000010000012000020032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022:LME/Wind Wood Mackenzie 2023 Quellaveco Kamoa Teck Quebrada Blanca TFM KFM 2023 102 2024 KFM TFM Oyu Tolgoi Salvador Teck Quebrada Blanca 2024 119 2023-2024 1876 1919 2.2%2.3%0.002000.004000.006000.008000.0010000.0012000.00:LME/-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%05101520253035401991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026E 2031E Source:Wood Mackenzie Wood Mackenzie 2023 9 794 8.3%2023 1134 9.6%2024 400 220 2024 2023-2024 2570 2660 4.68%3.50%2022 2023 283.3 390 106.7-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%050001000015000200002500030000 40 2022 10 1 34 33+22 2022 8 57 69 12 8 2022 11 63.5 71 7.5 10 2022 9 10.8 18 7.2 13 2022 10 103 120 17 20 2023 25 32 7 18 2023 4 0 10 10 20 2022 11 15 4 16 2022 12 13.5 1.5 10 2023 0 3 3 18 2023 10 0 1.5 1.5 40 2023 9 0 3 3 56.5 78.8 22.8 40 2022 5 26 36 10 42 2022 5 29 40 11 12 2023 1.5 2.8 1.3 20 2022 10 0.68 1.22 0.5 89 101 12 30 17 19 2 20 7 9.5 2.5 40 38 42.5 4.5 30 27 30 3 63.9 36.2-32.7 60 2023.3-11 47.5 30-17.5 12 2022 12 8 0-8 10 2023 4 5 1.2-3.8 10 2023 1 3.4 0-3.4 108.8 Wood Mackenzie TFM 20 5.6 3.6-7.6 KFM 9 8 2.9 7-9 Mutoshi 4.8 1 2023 Escondida 20 3 Kalongwe 3 3.2 2022 Lonshi(4 1 2023 9 Bor 18 9 Bor 11.4 Chuiquicamata 40-6 2022.11.15 5 Ventanas 15 40-6 5 Onsan 68-5 3-4 Kennecott 15-4.5 2023 5 Gresik 25-6 3 75 7 3.3 Wood Mackenzie Wood Mackenzie-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%05000100001500020000250003000035000-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,0001,000,0002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,0002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09 2022 87.41GW 2023 1-9 1.29 145%2023 140-160GW 60.2%-83%2024 180-200GW 25%SolarPower Europe 2023-2024 401GW/462GW 43%/18%5.5 2023 82.5/220.6 72%/65%2024 104.5/254.1 35%/15.2%Wind Wind 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-50.000.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050001000015000200002500030000:-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%020004000600080001000012000140002020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08:IEA 2023 10 4 15.6%2023 1-10 37.3GW 76%2016-2022 4.87 9.06 70GW 2024 66GW GWEC 2024 125GW 2023/2024 62.6/66.8 55%/6.6%Wind Wind 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E Wind SMM 2023 1-10 728 38%10 76.7 37.8%7.6 SNE Research 2023 1-9 966.5 36.4%2024/900/1850 IDTechEX-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%010002000300040005000600070008000900010000-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0100020003000400050006000700080002019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-06:83kg/2024 80.5/129.5 31%/32%EV sales Evtank 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E CleanTechnica EV Sales 2023 2023 5200 4%2023 2023 8 19%2024 Wind 30%35%40%45%50%55%01000020000300004000050000-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0100020003000400050006000:2023 1-9 1013 4.16%1416 4.05%2024 1442 1.85%9 15.4%13 7 10 22 9 4.3%2023 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 649 742 686 713 752 775 102 116 108 103 102 101 165 189 175 176 183 184 115 131 121 109 111 112 102 116 108 111 119 120-100%-50%0%50%100%150%2017-022017-062017-102018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-06:-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%:-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0500100015002000250030002021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09:-50%0%50%100%150%200%2018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-06:140 160 148 149 149 149 1273 1455 1344 1361 1416 1442 yoy 39.18%14.33%-7.60%1.23%4.