20240214_国投证券_医疗器械行业复盘国际及国内IVD龙头公司近年经营与发展_57页.pdf

1 2024 02 14 IVD-A Wind%1M 3M 12M-5.1 0.1-4.2-2.7-6.7-21.6 SAC S1450518120001+2024-01-29 IVD 2024-01-18 2023-11-09 2023-09-28 2023-09-20 IVD IVD AD IVD/POCT/AD 2025 AFP PIVKA-II IVD 2023 IVD 2024 IVD+2019 1.81%14.77%AD-31%-21%-11%-1%9%19%29%39%2023-02 2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 300 2/2030 60 AD 1911 2023 2025 Leqembi Donanemab AD MCI AD AD NASH WHO HBV HCV 2023 HBV HCV GP73 NASH IVD IVD(:)1-2(:)2-4 IVD IVD+0YEVzQrMnOrQoQtQqNtMqR8O8QaQsQpPoMrNfQrRsQlOqRuM9PnNxPMYmQmMuOnQsQ/3 1.IVD.6 1.1.6 1.2.60%.8 1.3.10 1.4.AD CGM.12 1.4.1./POCT/.13 1.4.2.AD 2025.14 1.4.3.AFP PIVKA-II.15 1.4.4.16 2.IVD.17 3.IVD.19 3.1.+.19 3.1.1.25 3.1.2.26 3.1.3.28 3.2.AD.31 3.2.1.AD.35 3.2.2.35 3.2.3.35 3.3.NASH.37 3.3.1.42 3.3.2.44 3.4.IVD IVD.46 3.4.1.IVD.49 3.4.2.+.51 3.4.3.52 4.55.55 1.6 2.ASAP.8 3.8 4.9 5.11 6.11 7.12 8.2023.13 9.15 10.16 11.IVD.18 12.%.19/4 13.ILI.20 14.21 15.21 16.21 17.21 18.21 19.23 20./.24 21./.24 22.26 23.27 24.AD.31 25.AD.31 26.AD.32 27.PET ROC 33 28.5 AD.34 29.36 30.37 31.37 32.1990 vs 2010.38 33.GP73.39 34.GP73.39 35.HCC.41 36.().42 37.().42 38.2023.44 39.44 40.44 41.45 42.45 43.IVD.46 44.2022 IVD.46 45.IVD.47 46.2022.48 47.48 48.IVD.49 49.50 50.50 51.50 52.51 53.51 54.52 1 2024 1.7/5 2 2024 1.9 3 POCT.10 4 2024 1.14 5 AD.15 6 IVD.20 7 2024.22 8.23 9 MP.24 10 POCT 2028.25 11.25 12.26 13+2021 9.27 14.27 15.28 16.28 17 AD MCI.32 18+AD.35 19.35 20.38 21 GP73.38 22.40 23 2015.40 24.41 25 GP73.43 26 2022 IVD.46 27.48 28 IVD.55/6 1.IVD IVD AD IVD 1.1.2023 100 39.4%5.8%1.3%8.5%POCT 10.1%6.4%17.8%4.8%POCT 11.6%10.8%9.1%3.8%2023 GLP systems Track 1.Bloomberg 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Core Laboratory Diagnostics Rapid Diagnostics Molecular Diagnostics Point of Care Alere/7/POCT ID Now Nicking 5 13 ID Now RSV A/RSV 1 2024 1 BINAXNOW INFLUENZA A&B CARD 2/BINAXNOW COVID-19 Ag CARD BINAXNOW COVID-19 ANTIGEN SELF TEST BINAXNOW RSV CARD RSV BINAXNOW STREPTOCOCCUS PNEUMONIAE ANTIGEN CARD BINAXNOW STREP A A CLEARVIEW STREP A EXACT II DIPSTICK A ID NOW INFLUENZA A&B 2/POCT ID NOW COVID-19 2.0 POCT ID NOW RSV RSV POCT ID NOW STREP A 2 A POCT ALINITY m RESP-4-PLEX ASSAY/RSV ALINITY m SARS-COV-2 ASSAY 1972 2016 PIVKA-II 2018 PIVKA-II 2019 11 ASAP Age Sex AFP PIVKA-II 4 CHB 2023 6 ASAP Univants/8 2.ASAP 1.2.60%2023 96 11.5%2023 2023 18 67.44%/RSV 3.0%50%100%150%200%250%300%02004006008001000120014001600180020002023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023 Surprise/9 4.Bloomberg+POCT/RSV 25 GeneXpert POCT 2 2024 1 Xpert Xpress Strep A A 24min Xpert Xpress CoV-2 plus 30min Xpert Xpress CoV-2/Flu/RSV plus/RSV 25min Xpert Xpress Flu/30min 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Diagnostics/10 3 POCT GeneXpert II/IV/XVI 2/4/16 GeneXpert Infinity-48s 216 cm L x 89 cm W x 200 cm H 725.7 kg 1300T/D GeneXpert Infinity-80 274 cm L x 89 cm W x 200 cm H 954.5 kg 2000T/D 1.3.2023 48 24.2%1.2%2022 Q4 9 30 POCT POCT Atellica POCT/11 5.Bloomberg 6.01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/12 1.4.AD CGM 2023 157 13%2022 41 2023 8 7%9%10%30%14%POCT 58%POCT 4%CGM BGM 24.75 7%17.5%7.Bloomberg CCM Vertical cobas 6800/8800 cobas c703 2024 CGM AD 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Centralised&PointOfCareSolutions CoreLabPointofCare MolecularLabPathologyLab DiabetesCareNearPatientTesting AppliedScience/13 8.2023 1.4.1./POCT/POCT 2022/2024 Liat POCT/RSV Cobas/14 4 2024 1 cobas MAI COBAS TaqMan MTB Test cobas MTB cobas MTB-RIF/INH cobas SARS-CoV-2 Test cobas SARS-CoV-2 Duo Test cobas SARS-CoV-2 Qualitative Test RNA UC-TIB-AdV cobas SARS-CoV-2&Influenza A/B v2/cobas ADV/hMPV/EV-RV UC Test/cobas Influenza A/B&RSV UC Test/RSV cobas SARS-CoV-2&Influenza A/B Test/cobas Paraflu 1-4 UC Test cobas Strep A A POCT cobas SARS-CoV-2 POCT cobas SARS-CoV-2&Influenza A/B/POCT cobas Influenza A/B&RSV/RSV POCT Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG Elecsys SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 S S SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Test Nasal SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Test 2.0 SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Test SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antibody Test 2.0 IgG SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Self Test Nasal SARS-CoV-2&Flu A/B Rapid Antigen Test/1.4.2.AD 2025 2022 12 FDA A pTau pTau/A 55 2023 6 tTau/A AD AD Elecsys Panel pTau ApoE 4 2022 FDA 2023 2023 2025 Elecsys Panel/15 5 AD Elecsys Total-Tau CSF tTau Elecsys Phospho-Tau(181P)CSF Phospho-Tau(181P)Elecsys-Amyloid(1-42)CSF II Abeta42 Elecsys Amyloid Plasma Panel 2025E pTau ApoE 4 1.4.3.AFP PIVKA-II 2023 2024 AFP PIVKA-II 2023 Elecsys PIVKA-II Elecsys GAAD Elecsys PIVKA-II HCC PIVKAII DCP Elecsys GAAD PIVKA-II AFP HCC 9./16 1.4.4.20 2000 2014 IVD 2020 4.79 10./17 2.IVD 45 POCT ICL 2023 IVD 2023+IVD POCT POCT 2023/2024 POCT HPV HPV ICL ICL 2023 DRGs 2023Q4 2024 ICL 2024 IVD/18 11.IVD Wind-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%POCT ICL SW 2023/POCT ICL+7 8 NASH AD/19 3.IVD 3.1.+2022 2022 2023 3 2023 10 12.%/20 ILI 2023 1.2015-2019 2009 H1N1 ILI 2.2020 2021 ILI 2020 2021 ILI 3.2021 ILI 2022 2019 2023 13.ILI CDC 1.Global Market Insite 2019 101.3 2026 182.3 8.76%2013 1.78 2019 12.97 39.24%2.2019 4942 2013-2019 33.45%2023 1-10 45.34 39.19%2011-2022 17.95%3.2019 1.81%14.77%6 IVD 2019 101.3 12.97 IVD 686.08 716 14.77%1.81%Global Market Insite statista 05000001000000150000020000002500000300000035000002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/21 14.15.Global Market Insite 16.17.Wind 18.0204060801001201401601802002019 2026E0%10%20%30%40%50%60%024681012142013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01000200030004000500060002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 yoy-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01020304050 yoy/22 2020 3 2081 2022 4 1.31 2022 1.47 3523 11145 PCR 2024 2 2024 7 2024(CAP)CAP CAP CAP 1.2.3.4.(/)1.2.3.4.1.2.3.POCT POCT POCT/23 19.8 1h 24h-70 21d 3d 37d Q-PCR DNA DNA 4h 28 3d-20 12-70 MP 18h DNA MP SAT-RNA RNA RNA RNA RNA 4h-20-70 MP 18h RNA DNA MP 34h IgM MP 2030min MP 28 3d 1 160 MP 4 34h IgM IgG IgA IgM IgA MP,IgG 4 34h IgM IgG 12h ELISA IgM MP 34h 2019/24 9 MP d 6 7 MP GICT MP MP DNA MP GICT MPDNA MPDNA RNAa MP 7 MP DNA MP PA)MP DNA MP 1 PA)MPDNA RNAa MP MP 2 PA)6 7 MP GICT MP MP DNA MP GICT MP 1 PA MP DNA MPDNA RNAa MP MP 2 PA)7 MP GICTMP 1 PA)a MP 2 PA MP DNA MP 1 PA IgM IgG MP MP DNA MP 2 PA IgM IgG MP MP DNA RNAa MP 2019 MP GICT a PA 2028 POCT 50.14 1.1990-2019 17.9/1.8 2-4 6-8 The economic burden of non-influenza-related viral respiratory tract infection in the United States 5 1.7 3 2.POCT POCT 2028 POCT 10%3.POCT 2014-2019 35-45/2018-2021H1 18-20/POCT 20/20./21./0102030405060702014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Q105101520252018 2019 2020 2021H1/25 10 POCT 2028 14 1/179077.28 250708.19 POCT%10%25070.82 POCT/20 POCT 50.14 1990-2019 The economic burden of non-influenza-related viral respiratory tract infection in the United States 3.1.1.60 PCR PCR 11(PCR-)H1N1/H3N2 1/2/3 B/E PCR I III 13 PCR H7N9 H1N1 H3N2 H5N2 H1N1(2009)H3N2 Victoria Yamagata B C E 1 2 3 4 229E OC43 NL63 HKU1 A B PCR RSV Radv HMPV/PIV/NMPA/26 12 PCR NMPA C PCR tNGS mNGS C 22.3.1.2.POCT IgG/IgG/IgG/27 13+2021 9 156 142 10 9/1/4 4 14 2018 2019 2020 2021 1-6 134 220 246 204 12.19%13.26%13.35%14.11%46.07 107.57 92.4 92.57 18.26%18.21%16.07%21.92%23.82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%0200040006000800010000120002018 2019 2020 2021H1/28/2020/15.49%/10.14%/1.87%15 2018 2019 2020 301 20.76%387 19.67%464 21.45%632 43.59%957 48.65%1,055 48.77%191 13.17%236 12.00%229 10.59%17 1.17%21 1.07%29 1.34%56 3.86%80 4.07%67 3.10%103 7.10%117 5.95%120 5.55%150 10.34%169 8.59%199 9.20%1,450 100.00%1,967 100.00%2,163 100.00%16 2020 464 2996 15.49%9.14 1055 10404 10.14%5.03 229 12252 1.87%3.06 1748 25652 6.81%5.86 3.1.3.PCR tNGS mNGS POCT mNGS/PMseq-DNA PMseq-RNA PMseq-DNA+RNA tNGS 2023 8 tNGS PTseq PCR 268 95%PM Easy Lab PCR/29 POCT POCT 2023 23 12 16 2023 15.83%95.80%+8 PCR 2019-nCoV+VIRCELL PCR PCR,PCR TaqManTM AllGloTM MGBTM LNA 600 300,/30 IgG IgM IgG 30min 2023 40%Q3 70%POCT MBL+Panall 8000-2 PCR 5 10 26 1/31 3.2.AD 70%Alzheimer s disease,AD AD AD 2023 2020 AD 983 2030 2040 2050 60 AD 1911 2471 2765 9738 16922 25448 2020-2050 2050 2015 2.35 2023 2025 65 1 24.AD 25.AD.2020-2050.2020-2050/32 AD AD AD AD AD Leqembi Donanemab AD MCI AD AD 26.AD Jack CR Jr.Advances in Alzheimers disease research over the past two decades 17 AD MCI NPS MCI AD NPS AD 2021/33 AD p181-tau A42/40ratio NfL Neurology 26 2323 SCC MCI AD PET A 42/40ratio p181-tau NfL PET p181-tau AUC 0.74(95%CI=0.69;0.79)tTau 27.PET ROC Planche V,Bouteloup V,Pellegrin I,et al.Validity and Performance of Blood Biomarkers for Alzheimer Disease to Predict Dementia Risk in a Large Clinic-Based Cohort AD AD 5 p181tau NfL AD p181tau NfL 5 AD/34 28.5 AD Planche V,Bouteloup V,Pellegrin I,et al.Validity and Performance of Blood Biomarkers for Alzheimer Disease to Predict Dementia Risk in a Large Clinic-Based Cohort MCI AD 2020 AD AD,PET AD,(2B,97.55%)2021 A 42/A 40 P-tau217 P-tau181 NfL AD MCI a A(2023)A p-tau AD(2023)SIMOA(IP-MS)A p-tau IP-MS A AD p-tau A A 42/A 40 AD SIMOA A 42 A 42/40 PET 59%82%IP-MS 72%97%A 40 A 42 IP-MS(0.91 0.82)A p-tau p-tau181 p-tau217 p-tau231 p-tau SIMOA p-tau181 A 70%88%IP-MS 67%95%p-tau PET/35 A-PET AD p-tau181 A tau 3.2.1.AD A Tau NFL GFAP APOE MCI AD IP-MS 18+AD A 42 AD P-tau MCI AD AD7C-NTP 3.2.2.PCR AD 2023 11 19 AD APOE PCR AD p-tau 181 p-tau181 A 40 A 42.A 42/A 40)p-tau181 A 40 A 42.A 42/A 40 NfL)(AD7C-NTP)NfL GFAP AD(A 1-42 A 1-40 A 1-42/A 1-40 T-Tau P-Tau)(A 1-42 A 1-40 A 1-42/A 1-40 T-Tau P-Tau ApoE)PCR 3.2.3.AD PD/36 AD-AD PD HD ALS A ALeqembi AD 2024 AD AD AD 29./37 3.3.NASH“”“”WHO 2017 2030,90%80%Polaris 2020 22%15%33%11%2021-2030 HBV HCV 30.31.Polaris WHO Polaris WHO HBV/HCV ALD NAFLD NAFLD 2016 2.5 2018,B NAFLD 10 15%31%10-20 0.6%-3%NASH 10-15 15%-25%2023 9 13 Madrigal Pharmaceuticals FDA THR-resmetirom(NASH)NDA PDUFA 2024 3 14 NASH NAFLD ALT 0%20%40%60%80%100%-2020 WHO-20300%20%40%60%80%100%-2020 WHO-2030/38 32.1990 vs 2010 Ali A Mokdad,et al.Liver cirrhosis mortality in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010:a systematic analysis 20 APRI FIB-4 LSM ALT AST.73 GP73 GP73 73(Golgi protein 73 GP73)2000 GP73 GP73,HBV HCC GP73 GP73 GP73 GP73 ALT 21 GP73 CHB ALT AST GP73 GP73 ALT GP73 1.2.NASH sGP73 NAFLD NASH AUC 0.830 ALT NAFLD GP73 sGP73(G=2)(G=3)AUC 0.742 0.891 1.ALT NAFLD NASH 2.NASH AIH/39 CHC CHB GP73 CHB(S 2)AUC 0.714-0.820 GP73 1.LS NASH sGP73 NAFLD(F 2)(F 3)AUC 0.897 0.935 sGP73 NAFLD(F=4)AUC 0.960 LSM sGP73(AUC=0.873vs0.856)sGP73 APRI FIB 4 NAFLD(AUC=0.962)1.NAFLD 2./LMS NASH AIH GP73 AUC 0.855 AUC 0.852 0.880 1.AIH CHC.73.73.73,33.GP73 34.GP73.73 GP73.73 GP73 AFP AFP-L3%DCP GALAD GALAD 2003-2015 5 10.1%12.1%5 40.5%2002-2011 2019 767.0 5 70%-80%2030 5 15%AFP AFP-L3%DCP GALAD GALAD AFP AFP-L3%DCP AFP AFP/40 22 AFP 1956 AFP AFP AFP AFP AFP AFP AFP-L3 1988 AFP AFP-L3 HCC AFP-L3 AFP-L3 AFP AFP-L3%AFP-L3%AFP AFP/HCC HCC DCP DCP N 10 K K 10 Ca2+DCP HCC AFP AFP HCC AFP AFP-L3%DCP GALAD GALAD AFP AFP 1980 AFP+1989 1994 DCP AFP-L3 1995 3-4 HBV HCV 6 60-65%10%2003-2005 42.7%2015 12.1%23 2015 10-30%10-20%17%23%60-65%20-30%10-20%10%5%Kudo.Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Japan as a World-Leading Model/41 35.HCC Kudo.Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Japan as a World-Leading Model AFP+2030 97 2022 6 1 AFP HBV/HCV NASH 40 AFP DCP miRNA AFP-L3 GALAD 2030 97 AFP 32 97/3=32 24 2020E 2030E/HBV 8000 8000 2020 Polaris HBV%22.10%90.00%2020 Polaris 2030 WHO HBV 1768 7200 HCV 950 950 2020 Polaris HCV%32.80%90.00%2020 Polaris 2030 WHO HCV 312 855 2080 8055 HBV/HCV 2 2 6 4159 16110/60 60 300 20%24.96 96.66 2022 Polaris WHO/42 3.3.1.2022 4.37 41.44%0.96 27.20%0.84 32.72%40%2022 2.13 48.35%48%2023 2023 1.51 54.42%MQ 2800 11800 C2000 C3000 110 480 36.()37.()Wind Wind 1 HBV-RNA HBV-RNA 2022 11 PCR HBV-RNA HBV-RNA HBV-RNA 2 GP73 GP73 2022 GP73 Nature Metabolism GP73 GP73 GP73 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02021 2022 2022 YOY 2022-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.00.51.01.52.02.52021 2022 2022 YOY 2022/43 25 GP73 20173401315 73 73 20163400156 73 GP73 73 GP73 20143401816 73 GP73 73 GP73 20222400345()73 73 GP73 20232400057 73(73(GP73)20222400039 73 GP73)C 73 GP73 20182400018 GP73 C 73 20222401453 73 73 NMPA NMPA 3 C-GALAD AFP NMPA 138 AFP-L3%AI C-GALAD II HCC 2023 4 GlyExo-Capture 2023 ctDNA TM I II III/IV 90%95%100%90%/44 3.3.2.2023 23.54%30%2021 2023 38.2023 39.2021 3 RNA NMPA HBV-RNA 2023 6 HIV-RNA 1 NMPA 2024 2 HCV-RNA NMPA 40.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2019 2020 2021 2023/45 HBV-DNA 2022 5 CE IVDD List A 8 HBV HCV HIV 1+2 41.42./46 3.4.IVD IVD Kalorama Information IVD 2022 947.97 2027 1163.17 4.2%+IVD 48%+142.93 1000 POC POC 80%43.IVD 44.2022 IVD Kalorama Kalorama 26 2022 IVD 2022 2022 2022 23%292.97 23%74.94 23%218.03 23%292.97 34%110.78 19%182.19 POC-15%191.07 20%191.07 POC-17%216.55 43%140.11 8%76.44 8%101.90 11%101.90 4%50.95 5%50.95 4%50.95 5%50.95/3%38.21 4%38.21 1%12.74 1%12.74 1%12.74 1%12.74 1%12.74 1%12.74 100%1273.80 100%325.83 100%947.97 Kalorama 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%020040060080010001200140016002020 2021 2022 2027E YOY/CAGR48%29%6%3%3%3%2%1%1%1%3%/47 IVD IVD IVD 45.IVD Kalorama IVD IVD IVD 10 1.2.3.27(:)1-2(:)2-4 IVD IVD IVD/48 27 2022 IVD 948 POCT-23%11%23%8%19%+54%29%15%100%54%29%15%54%29%15%+5%50%90%4%40%60%100%5%15%40%6 32 30 9 16 13 12 5 8 11 68 9 42 24 474 221 61 291 168 118%123%122%145%187%395%205%182%267%400 180 50 200 90 30%60%80%70%120 108 160 63 Kalorama Information CAIVD 1.Kalorama 2.3.7:1 4.5.2022 6.23%:11%46.2022 47.Kalorama Information Kalorama Information 0 200 400 600 POCT-0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%/49 IVD 48.IVD 3.4.1.IVD“+”4 IVD+X+2017 2021 25-OH Vitamin D E2 ALD 2018 2023 8 X+2023-2024/50 49.Wind 50.51.2023H1 8 46%32%-2 4 6 82022H1 2023H18/51 3.4.2.+2023 62.11%72.75%2023 2100 300 52.53.CE FDA IVDR 2022 8 58 IVDR CE 91 IVDR CE 180 300 FDA IVD MBL S N 10 30 NHK 7 iFlash 2023 2022 Paper of the Year MBL-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.42020 2021 2022 2023H1 yoy yoy050010001500200025002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1/52 54.3.4.3.2022 50%2023 2023H1 4%80 2023H1 186 72 118 46 CE IVD 2022 49%100 30 2023 NIPT/53 2023H1 24%100 2015 2025 OEM/ODM 2023H1 35%120 7 2022 38%126 POCT+2022 9%POCT HPV 2024 2023H1 13%HPV WHO HPV 2023 2023H1 17%BD 70 100 60 HRD HRR BRCA PCR-11 EGFR ALK ROS1 BRAF MET KRASG12C RET/54 2022 66%CVS Walgreen CE List A Pf/Pan Pf WHO 2022 79%ODM 2023H1 340 2041 2023()FDA 510K FDA 510K OTC/55 4.IVD IVD AD LDT DRGs 28 IVD POCT ICL 300832.SZ 300406.SZ 688114.SH 002432.SZ 603882.SH 603658.SH 300463.SZ 300676.SZ 300482.SZ 300244.SZ 688575.SH 300439.SZ 002030.SZ 688298.SH 301060.SZ 688389.SH 002022.SZ 688289.SH 603387.SH 300463.SZ 300289.SZ 600645.SH 688606.SH 300396.SZ 603658.SH 300685.SZ 002932.SZ 688468.SH 300396.SZ 300318.SZ 688075.SH 688068.SH 688317.SH 688068.SH 300642.SZ 000710.SZ 688253.SH 688656.SH 688399.SH 688767.SH/56 1.6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%A 6 300 B 6 300 2.3./57 119 33 518046 638 3 200080 2 15 100034