2019世界经济形势与前景（英文版）.pdf

World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 asdf United Nations New York, 2019ii World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 The report is a joint product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN/DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the five United Nations regional commissions (Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA). The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) also contributed to the report. For further information, visit un/development/desa/dpad/ or contact: DESA Mr . Liu Zhen Min , Under-Secretary-General Department of Economic and Social Affairs Room S-2922 United Nations New York, NY 10017 USA ( +1-212-9635958 undesaun UNCTAD Dr . Mukhisa k ituyi , Secretary-General United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Room E-9042 Palais de Nations, 814 1211 Geneva 10 Switzerland ( +41-22-9175806 sgounctad ECA Ms . Vera s ongwe , Executive Secretary United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Menelik II Avenue P .O. Box 3001 Addis Ababa Ethiopia ( +251-11-5511231 ecainfouneca ECE Ms . o Lga a Lgayero Va , Executive Secretary United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Palais des Nations CH-1211 Geneva 10 Switzerland ( +41-22-9174444 unece_infoun ECLAC Ms . a Licia Brcena , Executive Secretary Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Av. Dag Hammarskjld 3477 Vitacura Santiago, Chile Chile ( +56-2-22102000 secepalcepal ESCAP Ms . a r Mi Da s a Lsiah a Lisjah Bana , Executive Secretary Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific United Nations Building Rajadamnern Nok Avenue Bangkok 10200 Thailand ( +66-2-2881234 escap-scasun ESCWA Mr . Mounir t a Bet , Acting Executive Secretary Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia P .O. Box 11-8575 Riad el-Solh Square, Beirut Lebanon ( +961-1-981301 unescwa/contact ISBN: 978-92-1-109180-9 eISBN: 978-92-1-047611-9 Print ISSN: 1995-2074 Online ISSN: 2411-8370 United Nations publication Sales No. E.19.II.C.1 Copyright United Nations, 2019 All rights reservediii Acknowledgements The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 is a joint product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN/DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the five United Nations regional commissions (Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), Eco- nomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA). The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), and staff from the International Labour Organization (ILO) also contributed to the report. The report has benefited from inputs received from the national centres of Project LINK and from the deliberations in the Project LINK meeting held in Santiago, Chile on 57 September 2018. The forecasts presented in the report draw on the World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM) of UN/DESA. Under the general guidance of Liu Zhenmin, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, and Elliott Harris, United Nations Chief Economist and Assistant- Secretary-General for Economic Development, and the management of Pingfan Hong, Director of the Economic Analysis and Policy Division (EAPD), this publication was coor- dinated by Dawn Holland, Chief of the Global Economic Monitoring Branch of EAPD. The contributions of Helena Afonso, Grigor Agabekian, Peter Chowla, Ian Cox, Daniel Gay, Andrea Grozdanic, Matthias Kempf, Leah C. Kennedy, Poh Lynn Ng, Ingo Pitterle, Micha Podolski, Gabe Scelta, Nancy Settecasi, Yifan Si, Shari Spiegel, Sheilah Trotta, Sebastian Vergara, Mathieu Verougstraete, Thet Wynn, Yasuhisa Yamamoto and Stephanie Gast Zepeda from UN/DESA; Bruno Antunes, Regina Asariotis, Rodrigo Cr- camo, Stefan Csordas, Taisuke Ito, Nicolas Maystre, Viktoria Mohos-Naray, Janvier D. Nkurunziza, Bonapas Onguglo, Julia Seiermann, Mesut Saygili, Claudia Trentini, and Liping Zhang from UNCTAD; Hopestone Chavula, Adam Elhiraika, Khaled Hussein, Allan Mukungu, Sidzanbnoma Nadia Denise Ouedraogo, and Duncan Ouma from ECA; Jos Palacn from ECE; Claudia De Camino, Pablo Carvallo, Michael Hanni, Esteban Prez-Caldentey, Ramn Pineda, Daniel Titelman, Cecilia Vera, and Jurgen Weller from ECLAC; Goksu Aslan, Shuvojit Banerjee, Zhenqian Huang, Achara Jantarasaengaram, Zheng Jian, Daniel Jeong-Dae Lee, Hamza Ali Malik, Sanjesh Naidu, Kiatkanid Pongpan- ich, Ma. Fideles Sadicon, Sweta C. Saxena, and Vatcharin Sirimaneetham from ESCAP; Seung-Jin Baek, Moctar Mohamed El Hacene, Mohamed Hedi Bchir and Ahmed Moum- mi from ESCWA; Sandra Carvao, Michel Julian and Javier Ruescas from UNWTO; Flor- ence Bonnet and Juan Chacaltana from ILO are duly acknowledged. The report was edited by Mary Lee Kortes.iv World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 Explanatory notes The following symbols have been used in the tables throughout the report: . - Two dots indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. A dash indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. A hyphen indicates that the item is not applicable. A minus sign indicates deficit or decrease, except as indicated. . / A full stop is used to indicate decimals. A slash between years indicates a crop year or financial year, for example, 2018/19. Use of a hyphen between years, for example, 20182019, signifies the full period involved, including the beginning and end years. Reference to “dollars” ($) indicates United States dollars, unless otherwise stated. Reference to “billions” indicates one thousand million. Reference to “tons” indicates metric tons, unless otherwise stated. Annual rates of growth or change, unless otherwise stated, refer to annual compound rates. Details and percentages in tables do not necessarily add to totals, because of rounding. Project LINK is an international collaborative research group for econometric modelling, coordinated jointly by the Economic Analysis and Policy Division of UN/DESA and the University of Toronto. For country classifications, see Statistical annex. Data presented in this publication incorporate information available as at 30 November 2018. The following abbreviations have been used: ASEAN BEPS BIS BoJ CEMAC CFA CIS CO 2 DAC DSM ECA ECB ECE ECLACECOSOC ESCAP ESCWA EU FDI Fed G20 GCC GDP GHG GNI GVCs Association of South East Asian Nations base erosion and profit shifting Bank for International Settlements Bank of Japan Central African Economic and Monetary Community Communaut financire africaine Commonwealth of Independent States carbon dioxide Development Assistance Committee dispute settlement mechanism United Nations Economic Commission for Africa European Central Bank United Nations Economic Commission for Europe United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean United Nations Economic and Social Council United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia European Union foreign direct investment United States Federal Reserve Group of Twenty The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf gross domestic product greenhouse gas gross national income global value chains HLPF IEA IFF ILO IMF IPCC LDCs MNE MTS NAFTA ODA OECD OPEC PPP R&D SDGs SDT SIDS UNCTAD UN/DESA UNWTO VAT WAEMU WESP WTO United Nations High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development International Energy Agency illicit financial flows International Labour Organization International Monetary Fund Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change least developed countries multinational enterprises multilateral trading system North American Free Trade Agreement official development assistance Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries purchasing power parity research and development Sustainable Development Goals special and differential treatment small island developing States United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat United Nations World Tourism Organization value-added tax West African Economic and Monetary Union World Economic Situation and Prospects World Trade Organizationv Sustainable Development Goals Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere Goal 5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls Goal 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sus- tainable and modern energy for all Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture Goal 6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Goal 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all Goal 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable Goal 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts Goal 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Goal 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development Goal 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and pro- duction patterns Goal 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels vii Table of contents Table of contents Acknowledgements . iii Explanatory notes . iv Sustainable Development Goals . v Foreword . xv Executive summary . xvii Chapter I Global economic outlook . 1 Prospects for the world economy in 20192020 . 1 Robust global growth masks an increase in risks and vulnerabilities . 1 Investment is contributing more to growth . 9 Employment is rising, but job quality is low . 13 Economic conditions remain challenging for many commodity exporters . 18 International trade . 20 Global trade growth moderates, amid heightened trade tensions . 20 Impact of tariff hikes is heterogeneous across sectors and firms . 23 International financial flows . 30 Financial market volatility has increased . 30 Official development assistance declined in 2017 . 36 Risks to the outlook . 37 Escalating trade policy disputes . 37 Abrupt tightening of global financial conditions . 40 Appendix Baseline forecast assumptions . 47 Commodity prices . 47 Monetary policy . 49 Fiscal policy . 52 Exchange rates . 55 Chapter II Macroeconomic prospects and the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development . 57 Strengthening international cooperation and multilateralism . 58 International trade policy . 58 Revenue mobilization for sustainable development . 64 Macroeconomic conditions and climate change . 69 Overcoming domestic structural challenges . 78 Excessive commodity dependence . 78 Poverty and inequality . 87viii World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 Page Chapter III Regional developments and outlook . 97 Developed economies . 97 United States: GDP growth to moderate as impact of fiscal stimulus wanes amid rising capacity constraints . 97 Canada: housing market has cooled, but household debt may pose a risk as interest rates rise . 99 Japan: economy at capacity despite a slower expansion . 100 Australia and New Zealand: robust economic growth continues despite emerging uncertainties . 101 Europe: robust growth ahead, but risks to the outlook are shifting . 102 Economies in transition . 109 The Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia: commodity price increases and remittances sustained growth . 109 South-Eastern Europe: positive economic trends set to continue . 114 Developing economies . 117 Africa: improving short-term outlook but with significant medium-term vulnerabilities . 117 East Asia: growth outlook remains robust, but downside risks are high . 133 South Asia: economic outlooks diverge as short- and medium-term challenges remain . 143 Western Asia: gradual recovery as oil markets improve . 149 Latin America and the Caribbean: growth is projected to gradually pick up, but major downside risks remain . 157ix Table of contents Page BoxesI.1 Graduation from the United Nations least developed country category . 8I.2 Informal employment around the world: recent data and policies