准备好了吗，人工智能已经到来（英文版）.pdf

AI-Ready or Not: Artificial Intelligence Here We Come! What Consumers Think & What Marketers Need to Know 1WHAT CONSUMERS THINK & WHAT MARKETERS NEED TO KNOW AI-READY OR NOT: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE HERE WE COME!AI-Ready or Not: Artificial Intelligence Here We Come! 1INTRODUCTIONIn its most basic definition, “artificial intelligence” (AI) is intelligence that is exhibited by machines. It is frequently thought of as robotics but it actually encompasses a broader range of technologies, including many that are in wide use today. From speech recognition and search engines, to object recognition and gaming/learning systems, the application of AI is only going to grow in our daily lives. While the broad definition encourages exploration and drives innovation, the term “AI” is increasingly applied to systems exhibiting a bare minimum of qualifying features or mimicking other features to appear more “intelligent.” This parallels the rapid growth of real world AI applications, resulting in varied consumer perceptions of what artificial intelligence actually is and presents an opportunity for ongoing consumer education.There is no consensus on how to define AI. But this may work to AIs advantage. According to Stanford Universitys “One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100)” report, “Curiously, the lack of a precise, universally accepted definition of AI probably has helped the field to grow, blossom, and advance at an ever-accelerating pace. Practitioners, researchers, and developers of AI are instead guided by a rough sense of direction and an imperative to get on with it.”1BCC Research, a market research company covering science and technology, reports that the global market for smart machines reached $6.6 billion in 2015. The market should reach $7.4 billion in 2016 and nearly $15.0 billion in 2021, at a compound annual growth rate of 15.0% from 2016 to 2021.2Thanks to such optimistic forecasts, firms in the AI space are rapidly expanding. In the first half of 2016 alone, over 200 AI-focused companies have raised nearly $1.5 billion in equity funding, according to technology market intelligence platform CB Insights.3According to an article in The Economist, large technology companies are snatching up AI startups and recruiting academic researchers. The piece also cites that in 2015, $8.5 billion was spent on AI companies, nearly four times as much as in 2010.4CEOs of top Fortune 500 companies are even beginning to weave AI into their talking points. In his essay published in Slate in June 2016, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella laid out “10 Laws of AI.” In the same month, Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos offered his insights on the potential of artificial intelligence to change everything from shopping to driving (2016 Code Conference). In AI-Ready or Not: Artificial Intelligence Here We Come!, Weber Shandwick examines AI from a consumer perspective, augmented with how well marketers are aligned with those perspectives and how they see things from a business vantage point. 1“Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030.” One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence: Report of the 2015-2016 Study Panel, Stanford University, September 2016 2BCC Research, “Smart Machines: Technologies and Global Markets,” 20163CB Insights, “Artificial Intelligence Explodes: New Deal Activity Record For AI Startups,” 2016 4“The Return of the Machinery Question,” The Economist, June 25, 2016 (print edition)AI-Ready or Not: Artificial Intelligence Here We Come! 2Our research addresses three questions that will be highly relevant to marketing and communications professionals as they and their companies become more deeply entrenched in AI:1. What do consumers know about AI? What do they see as the upsides and downsides?2. What sources of information on AI do consumers trust and where are they getting their information? 3. How well do marketers tap into the AI consumer zeitgeist? How AI-ready are they?It quickly became clear from our research that AI is transforming business. Nearly seven in 10 CMOs in our study (68%) report that their company is currently selling, using or planning for business in the AI era, and nearly six in 10 (58%) believe that within the next five years, companies will need to compete in the AI space to succeed. As for their own roles, 55% of CMOs expect AI to have a greater impact on marketing and communications than social media ever had. This is a remarkable statement coming from a profession turned upside down by social media in the past 10 years. How We Did the ResearchWeber Shandwick surveyed two groups of respondents in June 2016 in partnership with KRC Research: consumers and executives. For ease of reading, we use the term “global” to describe the total samples of consumers and executives despite the limited number of markets surveyed.1. 2,100 adult consumers in the U.S., Canada, the UK, China and Brazil were surveyed online. This segment represented the general population of each of those markets.2. 150 executives (CMOs) in the U.S., the UK and China responsible for the oversight and execution of marketing or branding activities at their organisations were surveyed by phone. All respondents were employed by companies with annual revenues of at least $500 million USD and comparable levels in other markets. They hailed from a variety of industries.The survey first established a baseline of consumers first impressions about AI and AI-associated brands through open-ended questions, then presented respondents with the following definition of AI before proceeding with the full questionnaire:“Artificial Intelligence, or AI, is a field of technology designed to create computers, machines and software that are as smart as humans, and which are able to perform the same tasks that normally require human intelligence.”The following report describes our research findings on consumer beliefs, attitudes and expectations of AI. The report also provides a look at the AI Vanguard, those consumers who are above average when it comes to AI knowledge, acceptance and product adoption. We have summarised our learning into Eight Revelations. Each Revelation is supplemented with CMO perspectives on the same issue. In some cases, we find that CMOs are well-aligned with consumer opinion. But sometimes, they miss the mark. Since there is so little research on consumers take on AI at this point in time, Weber Shandwick wanted to arm CMOs and other communicators with early consumer insights so they have an edge on the future.“As those of us in the marketing and communications industry know, technology disruption brings challenges but also opportunities to master change. With popular culture espousing artificial intelligence as machines replacing jobs, robots taking over the world and drones causing mayhem, Weber Shandwick instead decided to capture the perspectives of the global buying public, contrasting them to marketer expectations. The result is a roadmap for successfully engaging in the AI era. Right now, artificial intelligence can best be described as superficial intelligence for most people. Now might just be the opportune time to clearly define AI and explain its potential.”Gail Heimann, President, Weber ShandwickAI-Ready or Not: Artificial Intelligence Here We Come! 3BENCHMARKING CONSUMER AI KNOWLEDGE: EIGHT REVELATIONS12345Consumers Hold Superficial AI Intelligence.AI Forecast Sunny. Media Shines a Bright Light. Consumers Put Their Money on Experts and Own Personal Touch.In AI They Trustfor Many Tasks.AI Consumer Benefits Plentiful, Keep Them Coming.REVELATIONREVELATIONREVELATIONREVELATIONREVELATION7AI Adoption Meets Trepidation.6Consumer Knowledge Breeds AI Optimism.8Consumer AI Positivity Buster: Job Losses.REVELATIONREVELATIONREVELATIONAI-Ready or Not: Artificial Intelligence Here We Come! 41CONSUMERS HOLD SUPERFICIAL AI INTELLIGENCE.REVELATION“Artificial intelligence” has entered the general publics consciousness. Two-thirds (66%) of global consumers surveyed say that they know a lot about AI (18%) or a little (48%). About one-third (34%) admit they know nothing. 48%Knowledge of AI (% global consumers)Know a little about18%Know a lot about34%Dont know anything aboutHowever, few consumers are able to name an AI brand leader. Most credit goes to IBM (17%), Google (13%) and Apple (12%). Those consumers who report to know a lot about AI are slightly more likely to name brands, with IBM (21%), Google (17%), Apple (11%) and Microsoft/Windows (11%) their top picks for AI leaders.Global consumers first impressions of AI are also vague. The most common unaided association is “robots,” as mentioned by 22% of consumers. First Impressions of AI, Asked Open-Endedly (% global consumers)* None/NothingRobotsControl/Machines take over/Job lossAdvanced/Future/InnovationAssistance/Helpful/Free up humansFilms/Deep Blue/I-Robot/Isaac AsimovComputers that thinkDont know22%7%5%9%9%6%5%5%*Mentions of 5% or higher are shownAI-Ready or Not: Artificial Intelligence Here We Come! 5First Impressions of AI, Asked Open-Endedly (% global consumers, top 3 mentions) KNOW A LOT ABOUT AI22% 10% 8%KNOW A LITTLE ABOUT AI26% 12% 10%Robots RobotsAssistance/Helpful Control/Machines take over/Job lossIntelligence/Computers that can thinkAdvanced/Future/InnovationThese “in the know” consumers are the AI Vanguard and, as we will reveal at length later in this report, are a critical segment for hastening acceptance of the AI movement among mainstream consumers.Probably because consumers so strongly associate AI with robots, many dont even realise that they are already using some form of AI. Although only one in five (22%) believe they own or use an AI product, 77% have a smartphone, 47% have GPS and 41% own a smart TV. Many AI-based technologies are already in widespread use by consumers, but the tight link to robots creates a misperception that AI is not part of todays everyday technology.Consumers are aware that AI is already here or soon coming. Only 8% of global consumers think AI is science fiction and will never materialise. The rest (92%) expect AI to arrive eventually: 40% think AI is fully developed or about to be and 52% think it is in its earliest stages of development. 52%Perceptions of AI Advancement(% global consumers)Artificial intelligence is only in the earliest stages of development10%Artificial intelligence is fully developed30%Artificial intelligence is close to being fully developed8%Artificial intelligence is science fiction and will never be a realityEven those who are most knowledgeable about AI say that the first thing that comes to mind when they hear the term artificial intelligence is robots. This seems to be an ingrained perception that will be challenging to overcome.AI-Ready or Not: Artificial Intelligence Here We Come! 6As Marketers See It: Broadening the Baseline Understanding CMOs know more about AI than the average consumer, with four in 10 reporting to know a lot about AI (vs. 18% of consumers). Yet this level of knowledge is not enough given the accelerated development pace of the technology. Consider this: one-third (32%) of CMOs currently in the AI business know a little or nothing about AI and half (49%) of those ramping up for AI know a little or nothing. It will be difficult for marketers to educate consumers about AI if they themselves are not confident in their own understanding of the technology. Additionally, the association with robots is a narrow understanding of the technology that is permeating our lives. For marketers with AI-powered products to sell, critical dissociation from robotics is required. The marketers challenge will be to broaden consumer understanding beyond robotics. Regional ComparisonChinese consumers report having the deepest knowledge of AI. Canadian and UK consumers are most likely to believe that AI is only in its earliest stages of development or that it will never be a reality.CANADAConsumers who know a lot about AIConsumers who think AI is only in its earliest stages of development/ will never be a realityUS UK BRAZILCHINACANADAUS UK BRAZILCHINA14%17%10%31%17%56%68%67%60%56%AI-Ready or Not: Artificial Intelligence Here We Come! 72AI FORECAST SUNNY. MEDIA SHINES A BRIGHT LIGHT. REVELATIONConsumers around the world have a fairly optimistic view of AIs potential. They are six times more likely to see AIs impact on society as positive than negative (45% versus 7%, respectively). Similarly, consumers expect an even more positive impact on their personal lives seven times more likely than negative impact (52% versus 7%, respectively).AIs Impact Will Be (% global consumers) Sources of AI Impressions (% global consumers) The media is helping to shape this flattering outlook of AI. When asked where their overall impression of AI comes from, 80% of global consumers mention some form of media a mix primarily of Internet, social media, TV, movies and the news. Media exposure trumps personal experience.Media exposure (net)21%32%15%11%16%15%12%The internet, social media/Social networks or videoTV/Movies News reports/ArticlesBooksAdvertisingPersonal experience (net)Technology events or conferencesFriends who know about AI or use AIYour own experience using AI products or servicesOnline courses/Instruction52%42%80%52%Societal impact of AI34% 45% 7%21%52%Personal impact of AI7%PositiveBoth positive and negativeNegativeAI-Ready or Not: Artificial Intelligence Here We Come! 8AI is quickly entering consumer mindsets through frequent exposure to AI. Nearly six in 10 (59%) consumers worldwide said they had seen or read something in the media about AI or had some personal experience with it within the 30 days prior to taking our survey. The vast majority of these consumers (82%) report that their recent interaction had left a positive impression. Curiosity about AI seems to be accelerating their awareness and interest of AI.Most (77%) would like AIs development to accelerate or remain at its current pace. Only 23% would like it to slow down or stop altogether. Based upon their perceptions today, consumers seem ready for AI to be a reality.As Marketers See It: Sky Is the Limit!When it comes to understanding global consumer acceptance of AI, marketers have some catching up to do. While consumers are expecting AI to be on their doorsteps soon, 60% of CMOs believe that AI is not yet ready for acceptance by the general population. Marketers now know that consumers are taking the lead on AI from the media (and from personal experience to a lesser extent) and have a roadmap on where to reach them. 51%Stay at current rate26%AccelerateConsumers AI Development Preference(% global consumers)17%Slow down6%Stop completelyAI-Ready or Not: Artificial Intelligence Here We Come! 9Regional ComparisonChinese and Brazilian consumers have the most optimistic views about the impact t