2020-2030交通运输业反思报告.pdf

Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil IndustriesDisruption, Implications and ChoicesA RethinkX Sector Disruption ReportMay 2017James Arbib & Tony Seba ContentsLIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Seba Technology Disruption FrameworkFigure 2: IO ICE, IO EV and TaaS costsFigure 3: A-ICE vs. A-EV as basis for fleet choice in 2021Figure 4: Factors affecting consumer choiceFigure 5: Speed of TaaS adoptionFigure 6: Transportation value chainFigure 7: Revenue distribution along the car value chain in billions of U.S. dollarsFigure 8: Projected trends in fleet size and compositionFigure 9: ICE vs. TaaS: Projected trends in annual salesFigure 10: U.S. light-duty vehicle oil-demand forecastFigure 11: Global oil-demand forecastFigure 12: Global cash cost of supply curve for liquids in 2030Figure 13: Top 20 countries for potential 2030 liquids production, split by commercialityFigure 14: Global oil rent in 2014Figure 15: Potential 2030 liquids production for selected top companies, split by commercialityFigure 16: Potential 2030 cumulative liquids production, split by supply segment and commercialityFigure 17: Top 20 Bakken producers for potential 2030 liquids production, split by commercialityFigure 18: Potential impacts of TaaSFigure 19: TaaS as a share of total electricity demand in the U.S.Figure 20: ICE vs EV upfront costs over timeFigure 21: New IO ICE vs. TaaS costs3 The RethinkX Project4 Preface4 Disclaimer6 Executive Summary11 The Seba Technology Disruption Framework13 A primer on the new language of road transportation14 Part 1: The End of Individual Car Ownership15 Summary15 1.1 Its All About the Economics16 1.2 The Costs of TaaS22 1.3 Systems Dynamics27 1.4 The Speed and Extent of Adoption31 Part 2: TaaS Disruption Oil and Auto Value Chains32 Summary32 2.1 Introduction33 2.2 Disruption of the Passenger Vehicle Value Chain39 2.3 The Disruption of Oil48 Part 3: Implications. Planning for the Future of Transportation 49 Summary50 3.1 Introduction50 3.2 Social and Economic Implications51 3.3 Environmental Implications54 3.4 Geopolitical Implications57 Appendix A57 Cost Methodology63 Appendix B63 The Seba Technology Disruption Framework70 Endnotes RethinkX 2 RethinkTransportationRethinkX is an independent think tank that analyzes and forecasts the speed and scale of technology-driven disruption and its implications across society. We produce compelling, impartial data-driven analyses that identify pivotal choices to be made by investors, businesses, policymakers and civic leaders.Rethinking Transportation is the first in a series that analyzes the impacts of technology-driven disruption, sector by sector, across the economy. We aim to produce analyses that reflect the reality of fast-paced technology-adoption S-curves. Mainstream analysts have produced linear and incremental forecasts that have consistently underplayed the speed and extent of technological disruptions, as in, for example, solar PV and mobile phone adoption forecasts. By relying on these mainstream forecasts, policymakers, investors and businesses risk locking in sub-optimal pathways.RethinkXs follow-on analyses will consider the cascading and interdependent effects of this disruption within and across sectors. Our aim is to facilitate a global conversation about the threats and opportunities of technology-driven disruption and to focus attention on choices that can help lead to a more equitable, healthy, resilient and stable society.We invite you to join our community of thought leaders and experts to better inform this conversation. To learn more, please visit rethinkx.Follow us at:The Project/rethink_x /JoinRethinkX /company/rethinkx RethinkX 3 RethinkTransportationPrefaceThe analysis in this report is based on detailed evaluation of data on the market, consumer and regulatory dynamics that work together to drive disruption. We present an economic analysis based on existing technologies that have well-known cost curves and on existing business-model innovations. We extrapolate data where we have credible knowledge that these cost curves will continue in the near future. The disruptions we highlight might happen more quickly due to the acceleration of the cost curves (such as has been happening in lithium-ion batteries, for example) or because of step changes in these technologies (such as has been happening in solid-state batteries and artificial-intelligence processing units). New business-model innovations may also accelerate disruption. Our findings and their implications are based on following the data and applying our knowledge of finance, economics, technology adoption and human behavior. Our findings show the speed, scale and implications of the disruptions to be expected in a rational context. Scenarios can only be considered in terms of probabilities. We think the scenarios we lay out to be far more probable than others currently forecast. In fact, we consider these disruptions to be inevitable. Ultimately, individual consumers, businesses, investors and policymakers will make the decisions that dictate how these disruptions unfold. We provide insights that anticipate disruption. Hopefully we can all make better decisions to benefit society based on the evidence that we present. DisclaimerAny findings, predictions, inferences, implications, judgments, beliefs, opinions, recommendations, suggestions and similar matters in this Report are statements of opinion by the authors, and are not statements of fact. You should treat them as such and come to your own conclusions based upon your own research. The content of this Report does not constitute advice of any kind and you should not take any action or refrain from taking any action in reliance upon this Report or the contents thereof. This Report includes possible scenarios selected by the authors. The scenarios are not designed to be comprehensive or necessarily representative of all situations. Any scenario or statement in this Report is based upon certain assumptions and methodologies chosen by the authors. Other assumptions and/or methodologies may exist which could lead to other results and/or opinions. Neither the authors nor publisher of this Report, nor any of their respective affiliates, directors, officers, employees, partners, licensors, agents or representatives provide any financial or investment advice by virtue of publishing and/or distributing this Report and nothing in this Report should be construed as constituting financial or investment advice of any kind or nature. Neither the authors nor publisher of this Report, nor any of their respective affiliates, directors, officers, employees, partners, licensors, agents or representatives make any recommendation or representation regarding the advisability of purchasing, investing in or making any financial commitment with respect to any asset, property and/or business and nothing in this Report should be construed as such. A decision to purchase, invest in or make any financial commitment with respect to any such asset, property and/or business should not be made in reliance on this Report or any information contained therein. The general information contained in this Report should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax and/or investment advice from a licensed professional.Nothing in this Report constitutes an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.No representations or warranties of any kind or nature, whether express or implied, are given in relation to this Report or the information contained therein. The authors and publishers of this Report disclaim, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, all representations and warranties of any kind or nature, whether express or implied, concerning this Report and the contents thereof.To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, the authors and publisher of this Report, and their respective affiliates, directors, officers, employees, partners, licensors, agents and representatives shall not be liable for: any loss or damage suffered or incurred by you or any other person or entity as a result of any action that you or any other person or entity may take or refrain from taking as a result of this Report or any information contained therein; any dealings you may have with third parties as a result of this Report or any information contained therein; and any loss or damage which you or any other person or entity may suffer or incur as a result of or connected to your, or any other persons or entitys, use of this Report or any information contained therein. In this Disclaimer, references to this Report include any information provided by the authors or publisher, or any of their respective affiliates, directors, officers, employees, partners, licensors, agents or representatives which relates to this Report, including, without limitation, summaries, press releases, social media posts, interviews and articles concerning this Report. RethinkX 4 RethinkTransportationRethinkX Research and Co-Writing Team:Irem Kok, Sani Ye Zou, Joshua Gordon and Bernard MercerRethinkX Research Operations and Management Team:Uzair Niazi, Meena Raju and Rosie Bosworth RethinkX Communications and Design Team: Cater Communications - Morrow Cater, Sage Welch, Natalie Pawelski and Cristen Farley Ryan Popple Mike Finnern Bryan Hansel Simon Moores Casper Rawles Andrew MillerRahul Sonnad Nick Warren Tony PosawatzBart Riley Ike Hong Kristina Church Jonathan Short Alex Lightman Ed Maguire Ian Welch Stephen ZoepfDeborah GordonDavid Livingston Dan SperlingMany others have influenced the thinking and insight we have, particularly the huge number of people and organizations that Tony has spoken to over the past few years including many of the leading automotive, battery, oil and investment companies.Our thanks in no way implies agreement with all (or any) of our assumptions and findings. Any mistakes are our own.With thanksThis report would not have been possible without the support of a wide group of individuals and organizations who have provided insight and time. Many people contributed directly to this work and reviewed our assumptions and drafts of the report including: RethinkX 5 RethinkTransportation Executive Summary We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport-as-a-service” (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth. The disruption will be driven by economics. Using TaaS, the average American family will save more than $5,600 per year in transportation costs, equivalent to a wage raise of 10%. This will keep an additional $1 trillion per year in Americans pockets by 2030, potentially generating the largest infusion of consumer spending in history.We have reached this conclusion through exhaustive analysis of data, market, consumer and regulatory dynamics, using well-established cost curves and assuming only existing technology. This report presents overwhelming evidence that mainstream analysis is missing, yet again, the speed, scope and impact of technology disruption. Unlike those analyses, which produce linear and incremental forecasts, our modeling incorporates systems dynamics, including feedback loops, network effects and market forces, that better reflect the reality of fast-paced technology-adoption S-curves. These systems dynamics, unleashed as adoption of TaaS begins, will create a virtuous cycle of decreasing costs and increasing quality of service and convenience, which will in turn drive further adoption along an exponential S-curve. Conversely, individual vehicle ownership, especially of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, will enter a vicious cycle of increasing costs, decreasing convenience and diminishing quality of service.RethinkX 6 RethinkTransportationSummary of findings: The approval of autonomous vehicles will unleash a highly competitive market-share grab among existing and new Pre-TaaS (ride-hailing) companies in expectation of the outsized rewards of trillions of dollars of market opportunities and network effects. Pre-TaaS platform providers like Uber, Lyft and Didi are already engaged, and others will join this high-speed race. Winners-take-all dynamics will force them to make large upfront investments to provide the highest possible level of service, ensuring supply matches demand in each geographic market they enter. In this intensely competitive environment, businesses will offer services at a price trending toward cost. As a result, their fleets will quickly transition from human-driven, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to autonomous electric vehicles (A-EV) because of key cost factors, including ten times higher vehicle-utilization rates, 500,000-mile vehicle lifetimes (potentially improving to 1 million miles by 2030), and far lower maintenance, energy, finance and insurance costs. As a result, transport-as-a-service (TaaS) will offer vastly lower-cost transport alternatives four to ten times cheaper per mile than buying a new car and two to four times cheaper than operating an existing vehicle in 2021. Other revenue sources from advertising, data monetization, entertainment and product sales will open a road to free transport in a TaaS Pool model, as private and public transportation begin to merge. Cost saving will also be the key factor in driving consumers to adopt TaaS. Adoption will start in cities and radiate outward to rural areas. Non-adopters will be largely restricted to the most rural areas, where cost and wait times are likely to be higher. High vehicle utilization (each car will be used at least 10 times more than individually owned cars) will mean that far fewer cars will be needed in the U.S. vehicle fleet, and therefore there will be no supply constraint to the speed and extent of TaaS adoption that we forecast.Taken together, this analysis forecasts a very fast and extensive disruption: TaaS will provide 95% of the passenger miles traveled within 10 years of the widespread regulatory approval of AVs. By 2030, individually owned ICE vehicles will still represent 40% of the vehicles