2017年Q1移动数据：全球入网手机总数达到76亿.pdf

Ericsson Mobility ReportJUNE 20172 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT JUNE 2017Ericsson Mobility ReportKEY CONTRIBUTORS Executive Editor: Patrik CerwallProject Manager: Anette LundvallEditors: Peter Jonsson, Stephen CarsonForecasts: Richard MllerArticles: Kalina Barboutov, Anders Furuskr, Rafia Inam, Per Lindberg, Kati hman, Joachim Sachs, Ritva Sveningsson, Johan Torsner, Kenneth WallstedtRegional Appendices: Veronica GullyAs Ericssons newly appointed CSO, I am proud to take over as publisher of the Ericsson Mobility Report. Over the last five years, we have published insights and data points that clearly illustrate the tremendous evolution of mobile technology.Recently, the industry has taken major steps to progress network evolution, including the approval of the Non-Standalone 5G New Radio (NR) that will enable early 5G deployments. By 2022, we anticipate that there will be more than half a billion 5G subscriptions, with a population coverage of 15 percent.Mobile broadband continues to grow strongly. On average, more than 1 million new mobile broadband subscribers will be added every day up to the end of 2022.The total traffic in mobile networks increased by 70 percent between the end of Q1 2016 and the end of Q1 2017. Part of this increase was due to one Indian operators introductory LTE offer that included free data traffic.In this edition, we have included four feature articles, exploring various aspects of the mobile industry. The findings presented range from how leveraging existing mobile infrastructure is the most cost-effective way to connect the 50 percent of the global population that still doesnt have internet access, to how attributes of 5G will make public transport using autonomous vehicles safer.I hope you find this report engaging and valuable. All our content is available at ericsson/mobility-reportPUBLISHERNiklas Heuveldop, Chief Strategy Officer and Senior Vice President Technology and Emerging Business8.8EB7.5B2.1GB71EB9B12GBCAGR 42%CAGR 3%CAGR 33%202220222016201620222016WORLDWIDESMARTPHONESUBSCRIPTIONSWORLDWIDELTESUBSCRIPTIONSPERSMARTPHONEWORLDWIDETOTALMOBILEWORLDWIDEDATATRAFFICDATATRAFFICWORLDWIDEMOBILESUBSCRIPTIONS JUNE 2017 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 320 Enabling internet for all24 Network optimization through analytics26 Massive IoT coverage in the city28 Remote operation of vehicles with 5G32 Methodology33 Glossary34 Global and regional key figurescontentsForecastArticles04 Mobile subscriptions Q1 201706 Mobile subscriptions outlook08 Regional subscriptions outlook10 Voice over LTE outlook11 Mobile traffic Q1 201712 Mobile traffic by application category14 Mobile traffic outlook16 Internet of Things outlook 17 Population coverage18 Network evolutionThe content of this document is based on a number of theoretical dependencies and assumptions and Ericsson shall not be bound by or liable for any statement, representation, undertaking or omission made in this document. Furthermore Ericsson may at any time change the contents of this document at its sole discretion and shall not be liable for the consequences of such changes.4.4B3.9B1.9B8.3B6.8B5BCAGR 11%CAGR 10%CAGR 18%202220222022201620162016WORLDWIDESMARTPHONEWORLDWIDEMOBILESUBSCRIPTIONSWORLDWIDELTESUBSCRIPTIONSPERSMARTPHONEWORLDWIDEDATATRAFFICWORLDWIDEMOBILESUBSCRIPTIONSBROADBANDSUBSCRIPTIONS4 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT JUNE 2017Mobile subscriptions are growing at around 4 percent year-on-year, reaching 7.6 billion in Q1. India grew the most in terms of net additions during the quarter (+43 million), followed by China (+24 million), Indonesia (+10 million), Pakistan (+5 million) and Nigeria (+3 million). The strong subscription growth in India was mainly due to an attractive LTE “welcome offer” by one operator, with free voice and data.Mobile broadband subscriptions1are growing by around 25 percent year-on-year, increasing by approximately 240 million in Q1 2017 alone. The total number of mobile broadband subscriptions is now around 4.6 billion. LTE subscriptions continue to grow strongly, with 250 million new subscriptions added during Q1 2017 to reach a total of around 2.1 billion. The net addition for WCDMA/HSPA was around 10 million subscriptions during the quarter. The majority of 3G/4G subscriptions have access to GSM/EDGE as a fallback. During Q1 2017, GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions declined by 110 million. Other technologies declined by 40 million.Subscriptions associated with smartphones have surpassed those for basic phones. Of all subscriptions, 55 percent are now for smartphones and, in Q1, smartphones accounted for 80 percent of all mobile phones sold. 385NorthAmerica415Middle EastLTE subscriptions reached a total of 2.1 billion in Q1 2017Mobile subscriptions (millions)520WesternEurope585CentralandEastern Europe985Africa1,510APAC(excludingChinaandIndia)1,170India690LatinAmerica1,345ChinaGlobally, 107 million new mobile subscriptions were added in Q1, reaching a total of 7.6 billionMobile subscriptionsq1 20171Mobile broadband includes radio access technologies HSPA (3G), LTE (4G), 5G, CDMA2000 EV-DO, TD-SCDMA and Mobile WiMAX Note: WCDMA without HSPA and GPRS/EDGE (2G) are not included JUNE 2017 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 5China97%APAC*114%*(excluding China and India)Western Europe124%Central and Eastern Europe143%Middle East116%Africa81%North America106%Latin America108%India88%2 million2 million3 million3 millionNew mobile subscriptions Q1 2017Top 5 countries by net additions Q1 2017India +43 millionChina +24 millionIndonesia +10 millionPakistan +5 millionNigeria +3 million12345CentralandEastern EuropeMiddle East0 million9 millionLatin AmericaNorthAmericaAPAC(excludingChinaandIndia)21 millionChina24 millionIndia43 million107 million new mobile subscriptions globally in Q1 2017Subscription penetration (percent of population)The number of mobile subscriptions exceeds the population in many countries, which is largely due to inactive subscriptions, multiple device ownership or optimization of subscriptions for different types of calls. As a result, the number of subscribers is lower than the number of subscriptions. Today, there are around 5.2 billion subscribers globally compared to 7.6 billion subscriptions. 5.2 billion subscribersWesternEuropeAfrica102% global subscription penetration in Q1 20176 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT JUNE 2017In March 2017, 3GPP approved acceleration of the 5G NR standardization schedule by introducing an intermediate milestone for an early variant called Non-Standalone 5G NR.1This will enable early 5G deployments and support the requirements for enhanced mobile broadband services. Early 5G deployments are anticipated in several markets. In 2022, the number of 5G subscriptions is forecast to reach more than 500 million. A 5G subscription will require a device capable of supporting 5G services and use cases, and that is connected to a 5G-enabled network.Over time, 5G will enable a wide range of use cases for massive Internet of Things (IoT) and critical communication. GSM/EDGE-only still constitutes the largest category of mobile subscriptions. However, LTE is anticipated to become the dominant mobile access technology in 2018, and will likely reach 5 billion subscriptions by the end of 2022. By this time, the number of LTE subscriptions will be more than seven times the GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions, while the corresponding number for WCDMA/HSPA subscriptions will be four times. In developing markets, GSM/EDGE will still account for a significant share of subscriptions, and across all regions, most 3G/4G subscriptions will still have access to GSM/EDGE as a fallback. GSM/EDGE will also continue to play an important role in IoT applications. 1Non-Standalone 5G NR will utilize the existing LTE radio and Evolved Packet Core network as an anchor for mobility management and coverage, while adding a new 5G radio access carrier to enable certain 5G use cases starting in 2019 Figure note: IoT connections and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) subscriptions are not included in the above graphMOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS OUTLOOKAcceleration of the 5G New Radio (NR) standardization schedule will enable large-scale trials and deployments of 5G in 2019. The number of 5G subscriptions is forecast to exceed half a billion by the end of 2022 101234567890Mobile subscriptions by technology (billion)2012 2015 2021 20222013 2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 20209 billionLTE5GWCDMA/HSPAGSM/EDGE-onlyTD-SCDMACDMA-onlyOther5 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 20227.5 billion5G subscriptions will exceed half a billion by the end of 2022 JUNE 2017 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 72016 20212018 202020172015 202220192012 201420132.9 billionTotal additions3.9 billion6.8 billionSmartphone subscriptions by technology+520+2,900-130-195-150LTEWCDMA/HSPAGSM/EDGE-onlyOther5GSubscriptions/lines, subscribers (billion)2The number of fixed broadband users is at least three times the number of fixed broadband connections, due to shared subscriptions in households, enterprises and public access spots. This is the opposite of the situation for mobile phones, where subscription numbers exceed user numbers12345678910090 percent of smartphone subscriptions are for 3G and 4GGreater device affordability is driving increased smartphone adoption. At the end of 2016, there were 3.9 billion smartphone subscriptions. The majority of these subscriptions (90 percent) were for 3G and 4G. By 2022, the number of smartphone subscriptions is forecast to reach 6.8 billion; almost all of these will be for mobile broadband.Mobile broadband will account for more than 90 percent of all subscriptions by 2022Its anticipated that by the end of 2022 there will be 9 billion mobile subscriptions. Mobile broadband subscriptions will reach 8.3 billion, thereby accounting for more than 90 percent of all mobile subscriptions. The number of unique mobile subscribers is estimated to reach 6.2 billion by the end of 2022. Mobile broadband will complement fixed broadband in some segments, and will be the dominant mode of access in others.2Many PCs and tablets are currently used without a mobile subscription, with one reason for this being the price difference between Wi-Fi-only models and those with mobile capabilities. Subscriptions for PCs and tablets with mobile capabilities are expected to have a moderate growth, reaching 320 million in 2022.20222016In 2022, there will be 9 billion mobile subscriptions, 8.3 billion mobile broadband subscriptions and 6.2 billion unique mobile subscribersMobile subscriptionsMobile subscribersMobile broadband subscriptionsFixed broadband subscriptionsMobile PCs, tablets and routers8 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT JUNE 20171234567890Mobile broadband subscriptions by region (billion)Latin AmericaNorth AmericaAsia PacificMiddle East and AfricaCentral and Eastern EuropeWestern EuropeThe number of mobile subscriptions continues to grow across the regions, fueled by a strong uptake in mobile broadband.1As shown in the graph on page 9, mobile broadband subscriptions make up between 50 and 85 percent of all mobile subscriptions in 5 out of 6 regions. Many consumers in developing markets first experience the internet through mobile networks on a smartphone. In Middle East and Africa, where the penetration of mobile broadband is currently lower than in other regions, the number of mobile broadband subscriptions is expected to increase significantly. Driving factors include a growing young population and more affordable smartphones. In mature markets, mobile broadband subscription growth is largely due to individuals connecting more devices.regional SUBSCRIPTIONS OUTLOOKMobile broadband drives subscription growth across all regionsMobile broadband subscriptions in Middle East and Africa expected to grow almost 3X between 2016 and 20222012 20162014 2018 20212013 2017 20202015 2019 20221Mobile broadband includes radio access technologies HSPA (3G), LTE (4G), 5G, CDMA2000 EV-DO, TD-SCDMA and Mobile WiMAX Note: WCDMA without HSPA and GPRS/EDGE (2G) are not included JUNE 2017 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 9Vast regional variations as networks evolve Over the forecast period, Middle East and Africa will dramatically shift from a region with a majority of GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions, to a region where 80 percent of the subscriptions will be WCDMA/HSPA and LTE. However, GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions will still account for a significant share of subscriptions by 2022. In Latin America, WCDMA/HSPA and LTE already account for around 65 percent of all mobile subscriptions a number that is expected to increase to 95 percent in 2022. Asia Pacific is a diverse region. In China, the ongoing deployment of LTE is expected to result in more than 1.3 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 2022, making up around 80 percent of all mobile subscriptions. Across the entire region, however, LTE will represent just 55 percent of all mobile subscriptions by the end of the same period. 5G will account for around 10 percent of the regions subscriptions in 2022, with deployments starting in South Korea, Japan and China. All three countries will host international sporting events in the coming six years, and intend to launch 5G services in conjunction with the events. In Central and Eastern Europe, the share of LTE subscriptions is anticipated to grow significantly; from around 15 percent at the end of 2016, to 70 percent in 2022. At 85 percent, the share of mobile broadband subscriptions in Western Europe is high due to well-developed WCDMA/HSPA networks and early LTE rollout. In 2022, the regional share of 5G subscriptions is expected to be 5 percent. Overall, North America has the highest share of LTE subscriptions because of rapid migration from CDMA and WCDMA/HSPA-based networks. This trend is set to continue with 5G, as leading operators in the region have stated their intention to expand into pre-standardized 5G already in 2017. As such, the region will have the highest share of 5G subscriptions in 2022 at 25 percent. GSM/EDGE-onlyLTEWCDMA/HSPA5G TD-SCDMA OtherCDMA-only204006080100Mobile subscriptions by region and technology (percent)North America2016 202270%LT E25%5GLatin America2016 202250%WCDMA/HSPA65%LT EAsia Pacific201640%GSM/EDGE-only202255%LT E10%5GMiddle East and Africa2016 202260%GSM/EDGE-only50%WCDMA/HSPACentral and Eastern Europe2016 202245%WCDMA/HSPA70%LT EWestern Europe2016 202250%WCDMA/HSPA90%LT E25% of subscriptions in North America and 10% in Asia Pacific will be for 5G in 202210 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT JUNE 20171A subscriber is counted as having a VoLTE subscription if making at least one VoLTE call per month2GSA (April 2017)3GSMA (March 2017)VoLTE has now been launched in more than 100 networks in 55 countries. Based on recent measurements in operator networks, a stronger growth than anticipated has resulted in a significant upward adjustment of our forecast. The number of VoLTE subscriptions is no