化工行业2035为增长做好准备：欧洲化工行业如何在更加严峻的环境中获得发展动力（英文版）.pdf

BEYOND MAINSTREAM MAY 2015 CHEMICALS 2035 GEARING UP FOR GROWTH How Europes chemical industry can gain traction in a tougher worldTHE BIG 3 THINK ACT CHEMICALS 2035 2 ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS 1 3 2 Outlook for Chemicals 4.0 p. 13 EUR 5 , 600 billion is the revenue that the global chemical industry could earn in 2035 if it continues to expand constantly at well above GDP growth rates in all major market segments. p. 3 13% is the global market share to which Europes chemical markets will shrink in 2035 (from 19% today) challenging Europes chemical industry in its home market. p. 6 56% is the amount by which EU regulations for the chemical industry have increased since 2008 driving up costs in Europe and creating an uneven international playing field. p. 9ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS 3 THINK ACT CHEMICALS 2035 Losing ground. The global chemical industry is expected to outgrow the increase in GDP, reaching a volume of EUR 5,600 billion in 2035. Yet European players are seeing their home markets shrink alarmingly. in 2011, growth expectations have edged down slightly as Asian growth is tempered. Also, the impact of shale gas was not considered to be so strong four years ago. Asia dominates Todays chemical market is a EUR 2,300 billion busi- ness. Fueled by Asian supply and demand, it will more than double over the next 20 years. When the global chemical market reaches EUR 5,600 billion in 2035, Asias share of worldwide chemical sales will have ris- en to 62%. Other regions will follow, albeit at a consid- erable distance: North America will corner around 14% of the market, with Europe just behind. CGlobal growth rates are slowing down, however. Despite its significant lead, Asian expansion is easing off as the regions overall economic growth flattens. Europe is still trying to recover from the euro crisis, and the significant growth seen throughout the North American petrochemical value chain has had virtually no impact on other chemical sectors. Between 2030 and 2035, the entire global chemicals market will grow by only 3.6% compared to 4.1% between today and 2020. The volatility and uncertainty of todays world has sig- nificant implications for chemical companies, which are called on to navigate a minefield of daily fluctuations in oil prices, increasing geopolitical tensions, growing customer demands and technological advances. 2035 may seem a long way away, but it is im- portant to think about where the chemical industry will be 20 years from now. What long-term trends will shape its development? Will the differences be- tween global regions become more pronounced? It has been evident for some time that Europe is losing ground in the global chemical industry, and that re- gions such as Asia and the Middle East are now in the driving seat. What is behind this shift? And is Eu- rope doomed to fall even further back? Or is there something that companies can do to turn the tide? We believe there is! Analysis of trends and growth drivers shows that the global chemical industry will grow faster than GDP between now and 2035. AAll major segments will contribute to this growth, outperforming GDP by between 20 and 70%. BThe real value forecast for the chemical market as a whole adds up to more than EUR 5,600 billion by 2035. Even so, it is notice- able that, compared to the 2030 study we published 1THINK ACT CHEMICALS 2035 ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS 4 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.7% 3.6% A THE GLOBAL CHEMICAL MARKET WILL MORE THAN DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS, BUT OVERALL GROWTH RATES ARE SET TO DECLINE Total chemical market real value forecast, 2012-2035e EUR bn Source: Roland Berger 2012 2015e 2020e 2025e 2030e 2035e 444 507 612 729 863 1,012 231 256 305 358 419 494 208 238 289 348 414 489 68 79 98 120 144 172 59 65 78 93 110 131 37 44 57 73 90 110 80 88 105 123 145 172 12 14 17 20 23 27 319 355 437 541 665 819 29 32 39 47 56 68 411 460 556 671 804 963 431 493 622 785 958 1,153 2,329 2,632 3,214 3,908 4,693 5,612 Petrochemicals BASE CHEMICALS Fertilizers Inorganics Flavors & fragrances Commodity plastics Agrochemicals Engineering plastics Paints & coatings Consumer chemicals Synthetic rubbers Other bulk chemicals Other specialtiesTHINK ACT CHEMICALS 2035 ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS 5 x.x B WORLDWIDE, EIGHT KEY SEGMENTS WILL OUTPACE GDP, WITH AGROCHEMICALS AND ENGINEERING PLASTICS DELIVERING THE STRONGEST GROWTH Growth in chemical segments vs. global real GDP growth , 2012-2035e % Source: Roland Berger Growth in Chemical segment Global real GDP CAGR 12-35 per chemical segment/CAGR global real GDP 12-35 2012 2015 2012 2015 2015 2020 2015 2020 2020 2025 2020 2025 2025 2030 2025 2030 2030 2035 2030 2035 6 4 2 0 6 4 2 0 6 4 2 0 6 4 2 0 6 4 2 0 6 4 2 0 6 4 2 0 6 4 2 0 ENGINEERING PLASTICS FERTILIZERS PAINTS AND COATINGS 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.3 PETROCHEMICALS COMMODITY PLASTICS AGROCHEMICALS INORGANICS FLAVORS AND FRAGRANCESTHINK ACT CHEMICALS 2035 ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS 6 Europe runs out of steam Europes chemical market is projected to expand by about 1.5% a year between now and 2035. Most of this growth will be in the downstream, higher-value-added segments such as agrochemicals and engineering plas- tics, both of which will outpace GDP growth. Although absolute sales are increasing, Europes share of the chemical market is declining sharply. Al- ready down from 33% in 2000 to 19% today, the con- tinent will be left with a global market share of just 13% in 2035 behind even North America. A Roland Berger Strategy Consultants health check in response to this alarming forecast reveals significant warning signs for key industry indicators: Total chemical imports to the EU are outstripping exports as the region becomes less and less competitive. Red flags are evi- dent in particular for raw materials and energy-intensive parts of the industry. Relative capital spending has dipped to historic lows. Extra capacity is seldom added, and most permanent shutdowns are in Europe. Europes deteriorating position in chemicals is manifesting upstream in petrochemicals and inor- ganics, for example mainly due to higher feedstock and energy costs. While other regions rapidly expand upstream production, Europe is consolidating. This year alone, the Middle East plans to open five new steam crackers for ethylene production, and Asia six. To add insult to injury, Europe has the highest plant closure rate, which peaked at 71.4% of global shut- downs in spring 2011. Yet despite all these negatives, our health check also identified favorable fundamental factors in Europes in- dustry. Deeply integrated chemical parks and advanced energy efficiency technology demonstrate just how so- phisticated the European chemical industry is, as do high levels of R&D spending and world-class productivity a clear sign that the industry has for some time been used to facing the heat of global competition. Europes decline is mainly the result of a structural “squeeze“ in all parts of the chemical industry value chain. Five distinct drivers are impacting Europe and altering the industrys entire global strategic agenda. DC GLOBAL SALES IN EUROPE: DOWN FROM 33% IN 2000 TO JUST 13% IN 2035 Although its absolute sales numbers are growing, the European chemical industry is seeing its home market shrink alarmingly % shareEuropeAsiaNorth AmericaLatin AmericaRest of world 33% 19% 13% 32% 53% 62% 27% 18% 14% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% Source: Roland Berger 2000 2015e 2035e 2THINK ACT CHEMICALS 2035 ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS 7 FIVE KEY DRIVERS ARE EFFECTING A SHIFT IN THE VALUE CHAIN, CAUSING EUROPE TO SUFFER AND SHAKING UP THE INDUSTRYS GLOBAL STRATEGIC AGENDA FEELING THE PRESSURE D FEEDSTOCK DISADVANTAGE Middle East is integrating more downstream value chain links US shale continues to undermine Europes feedstock and energy position Bio-based feedstock is not yet ready for large-scale take-off Middle Eastern companies like Sabic and OCI are leveraging feedstock access to expand their downstream position Western companies are shutting down crackers in Europe and investing in the US Growing local demand makes it attractive for Western companies to invest in Asia In Europe, chemical players focus on cost efficiency and cost cutting To avoid the commodity trap and eroding margins, many companies have turned to higher value-add segments like engineering plastics and life sciences C o m p an i e s move to service business models and focus on the application CHEMICAL CLUSTERS OUTSIDE EU China is developing large chemical parks to supply its growing manufacturing footprint UNEVEN GLOBAL PLAYING FIELD Ambitious European environmental policy is an extra challenge Source: Roland Berger CHEMICAL PRODUCTION FEEDSTOCK END-USE APPLICATION MANUFACTURING KEY DRIVERS EUS SHRINKING MANUFACTURING BASE Local demand from EU manufacturing industry lags behind Individual sectors are leaving Europe, e.g. textile and electronics more potentially to follow 5 DEMAND SHIFT Changes in end- user demand require new products and business models STRATEGIC AGENDA 1 2 4 3THINK ACT CHEMICALS 2035 ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS 8 stock instead of naphtha. The company is also evaluating plans to invest over USD 1.4 billion in a US methane-to-propylene complex to supply its North American operations. In 2012, Ineos announced ex- pansions to its Texas ethane cracking capacity, and last year cooperated with Sasol to open a new unit that will be ready by the end of 2015. DSM has likewise shifted to the US, building a new polymerization plant to manufacture the Akulon polyamide 6 polymer for film grades used in flexible food packaging and other segments. This investment will let DSM capitalize on low-cost propylene derived from US shale gas. Europes bio-based feedstock activities are not yet big enough to offset these shifts in the feedstock bal- ance. Prices are still too high and volumes too low. The sectors improving competitiveness is, however, at- tracting investment EUR 1 billion in sugar beet, for example. Traditional chemical players and even new biotech and food/agrochemical companies are want- ing a piece of the action. Coca-Cola, for example, is “working to completely eliminate the use of non-re- newable fossil fuels“ in its plastic bottles, while Unile- ver aims to halve the greenhouse gas impact of its products by 2020. Yet while bio-based feedstock is on many players agendas, its large-scale application re- quires costs lower and properties superior to its fos- sil-based counterparts. 2. CHEMICAL CLUSTERS OUTSIDE THE EU Emerging economies like India and China are becom- ing increasingly self-sufficient in petrochemicals. Ca- pacity expansion in the Asian region is expected to grow fast and will, for example, transform India from a net importer of polyethylene to a net exporter by 2016. Such moves will diminish export opportunities for regions such as the Middle East and put more pressure on the remaining import destinations, in par- ticular Europe. China is understandably the focus of attention right now. A decade ago, driven by increasing demand re- 1. FEEDSTOCK DISADVANTAGE Europe faces an increasingly strong disadvantage as two specific dynamics undermine its feedstock and overall energy position: the Middle Easts downstream value chain integration and the rise of US shale gas. The Middle East is snapping up more and more downstream links in the value chain and increasing capacity accordingly in order to squeeze more value out of its access to fossil resources. The region has thus emerged as a major competitor for the European chemical industry. Ready access to cheap feedstock, proximity to Asia and local government support sug- gest that this trend will continue. Ethylene, for exam- ple, accounts for nearly half of all petrochemical out- put in the region (21.7 million tons in 2013). And for good reason: The cost price of ethylene production in the Middle East is just USD 250 per ton less than half of what it is in Europe. At the same time, the rise of US shale gas is put- ting Americas ethylene prices at levels structurally be- low those of Europe at one third of European prices, in fact. Europe simply cannot match the feedstock and energy prices coming out of the Middle East and the US, and that is eroding its competitive position. This, in turn, is significantly impacting the bottom lines of players in the European chemical industry, which are heavily dependent on the cost of feedstock. Middle Eastern companies such as Sabic and OCI are consciously leveraging their access to feedstock to improve their position and gain more market share. Sabics acquisitions of DSM Petrochemicals, GE Plas- tics and other players constitute downstream invest- ments. OCI, meanwhile, is building capacity in the US and Algeria and is expected to reach fertilizer capacity of 11.9 million tons p.a. by 2017. Even European companies are shutting down do- mestic production to invest in the US, where feedstock is cheap. In May 2014, BASF announced a joint ven- ture with Total Petrochemicals & Refining USA to con- vert a steam cracker in Texas to use natural gas feed-THINK ACT CHEMICALS 2035 ROLAND BERGER STRATEGY CONSULTANTS 9 segments like engineering plastics, food, personal care, agrochemicals and pharmaceuticals. The chemi- cal industry as a whole including the likes of DuPont, Dow, BASF and Merck has thus been gravitating to- ward the life sciences, which are seen to be more prof- itable and less cyclical. 5. DEMAND SHIFT Patterns of demand are shifting radically, causing many companies to gravitate toward the wider life sci- ences and equally importantly get closer to their customers. The global megatrend toward sustain- ability and eco-awareness, for example, is driving far-reaching changes in marine coatings to prevent ship fouling. Such coatings reduce drag by 40% and significantly reduce fossil-fuel consumption. The most widely used anti-fouling agent tributyltin (TBT) was banned early in the new millennium, however, and cop- per-based replacement solutions themselves posed a threat to marine ecosystems. The chemical industry is thus being forced to develop new, multi-featured solu- tions to meet the shipping industrys demand for dura- ble, self-renewing anti-fouling agents with superior hy- drodynamic properties. In textiles, the benefits of digitization and robotics are eliminating many of the drawbacks that, in years past, saw much of Europes textile industry head off- shore in search of low-cost production. In response, key players are bringing production back onshore on a large scale forcing chemical manufa