2018全球贸易-确保未来增长：国际贸易金融调查（英文版）.pdf

GUIDING INTERNATIONAL BANKING PRACTICE DRIVING CHANGE IN TRADE FINANCE ICC BANKING COMMISSION 2018 GLOBAL TRADE SECURING FUTURE GROWTH ICC GLOBAL SURVEY ON TRADE FINANCE Trends in international trade and supply chains Developments in trade financing operations Regulation and compliance Digitisation and transformation Tenth Annual Edition The worlds essential rule-making body for the banking industry ICC is the largest, most representative business organization in the world. Its global network comprises over 6 million companies, chambers of commerce and business associations in more than 130 countries, with interests spanning every sector of private enterprise. With 85 years of experience and more than 600 members, the ICC Banking Commission the largest Commission of ICC has rightly gained a reputation as the most authoritative voice in the field of trade finance. RULES ICC Banking Commission produces universally accepted rules and guidelines for international banking practice. ICC rules on documentary credits, UCP 600, are the most successful privately drafted rules for trade ever developed, serving as the basis of USD 2 trillion trade transactions a year. POLICYMAKING ICC Banking Commission is helping policymakers and standard setters to translate their vision into concrete programmes and regulations to enhance business practices throughout the world. PUBLICATIONS AND MARKET INTELLIGENCE Used by banking professionals and trade finance experts worldwide, ICC Banking Commission publications and market intelligence is the industrys most reputable and reliable source of guidance to bankers and practitioners in a broad range of fields. DISPUTE RESOLUTION ICC Banking Commission and ICC International Centre for Expertise administer the ICC Rules for Documentary Instruments Dispute Resolution Expertise (DOCDEX) to facilitate the rapid settlement of disputes arising in banking. EDUCATION AND CERTIFICATION The ICC Academy is the world business organizations ground-breaking e-learning platform. Its industry-relevant Global Trade Certificate (GTC) provides an extensive overview of trade finance products and techniques. SPECIALIZED TRAINING AND EVENTS In addition to its bi-annual summit gathering 300+ international delegates every six months, the ICC Banking Commission organizes regular seminars and conferences around the world, in partnerships with ICC National Committees and other sponsors. STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS Well-established collaboration with leading policymakers and trade association, including WTO (World Trade Organization), ADB (Asian Development Bank), Berne Union, EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), IDB (Inter-American Development Bank), IFC (International Finance Corporation), IMF (International Monetary Fund), SWIFT, the World Bank and others. ICC BANKING COMMISSION 2018 GLOBAL TRADE SECURING FUTURE GROWTH ICC GLOBAL SURVEY ON TRADE FINANCEThe International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) is the worlds largest business organisation with a network of over 6 million members in more than 100 countries. We work to promote international trade, responsible business conduct and a global approach to regulation through a unique mix of advocacy and standard setting activitiestogether with market-leading dispute resolution services. Our members include many of the worlds largest companies, SMEs, business associations and local chambers of commerce. For more information please visit: iccwbo / iccwbo Project Manager Doina Buruiana, ICC Banking Commission Editorial Team Alexander R. Malaket Opus Advisory, Chair, Dominic Broom BNY Mellon, Mark Evans ANZ, Dave Meynell TradeLC Advisory, Olivier Paul ICC Banking Commission, Dan Taylor DLTAYLOR Consulting, Jun Xu Bank of China, Vincent OBrien ICC Banking Commission Sponsorship Manager Sandra Sanchez Nery, ICC Design wearezephyr Printed in May 2018 2018, International Chamber of Commerce ICC holds all copyright and other intellectual property rights in this collective work, and encourages its reproduction and dissemination subject to the following: ICC must be cited as the source and copyright holder mentioning the title of the document, International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), and the publication year. Express written permission must be obtained for any modification, adaptation or translation, for any commercial use, and for use in any manner that implies that another organisation or person is the source of, or is associated with, the work. The work may not be reproduced or made available on websites except through a link to the relevant ICC web page (not to the document itself). Permission can be requested from ICC through mailto:ipmanagementiccwbo 33-43 Avenue du Prsident Wilson, 75116 Paris, France ICC Publication No. 890E ISBN: 978-92-842-0509-7 Visit the ICC Banking Commission website: iccwbo/global-issues-trends/banking-finance/ Background information Find more online References and notes2 GLOBAL TRADE SECURING FUTURE GROWTH We would like to thank our sponsors3 GLOBAL TRADE SECURING FUTURE GROWTH In this report Foreword/John W.H. Denton AO, Secretary General, International Chamber of Commerce 5 Message from the report Chair/Alexander R Malaket, Market Intelligence Chair, ICC Banking Commission 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Wrap up of 2018 report/Boosting growth, prosperity and inclusion through trade 9MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT FOR TRADE AND FINANCE Setting the scene/Roberto Azevdo, Director-General, WTO 23 Global economic outlook/Protectionism and reform complacency could imperil a sustained recovery 25 Global trade and supply chains/Growing anew, but for how long? 31 Commodity trade finance/La vie en rose? Not quite 35FINANCE FOR TRADE Setting the scene/Arancha Gonzlez, Executive Director, ITC 39 ICC Global Survey on Trade Finance 2018/Where banks stand on strategy and operations 41 SWIFT trade traffic/The year in review/A major category 7 upgrade is underway/Watch Traffic 61 TXF-ICC Export Finance Survey/Profits hold up amid mixed views on the market 75 Export Credit and Investment Insurance/Strong performance, but political risks cast a long shadow 81 Multilateral development banks/No letup in expansion 91REGULATION AND COMPLIANCE Setting the scene/Sir Michael Rake, CEO, Worldpay 111 Making trade finance attractive investments/What it would take 113 Trends in trade finance regulation/Dealing better with anti-money laundering 117 Risk-based regulatory compliance/Back to basics for better surveillance 119 Basel IV/Will new rules help or hurt the market for trade finance? 123 Regulating business/The two pillars of ethical regulation 1254 GLOBAL TRADE SECURING FUTURE GROWTHTRANSFORMATION Setting the scene/Daniel Schmand, Chair, ICC Banking Commission 129 Digital trade/Plotting the path to transformation 131 Digitising trade/Kicking it into higher gear 139 Conflicts in trade finance laws/Time to get your clauses in order 143 Digital forfaiting/Making distributed ledger tech real 145 ICCs work on sustainable trade finance/Blueprint in the making 147 Voluntary Sustainability Standards/Schemes are spreading 151SPOTLIGHT Global trade in 2028/Singapores digital trade finance journey 157 From the Field/How China finances its growing trade and globalisation 159 SINOSURE view/Whats driving Chinas galloping growth in trade finance? 163Acknowledgments 165 5 GLOBAL TRADE SECURING FUTURE GROWTHINTRODUCTION Foreword/John W.H. Denton AO The ICC Banking Commission began its work in the 1930s, as the world was facing a different tide of nationalism and protectionism, and in many ways neatly encapsulates much of ICCs mission and track record of setting global standards and rules that enable and govern world trade. Since their publication, ICCs rules for documentary credits have since become the most successful privately-drafted rules for trade ever developed. Every year, trade transactions of over US$2 trillion are conducted on the basis of these ICC rules. ICCs uniform rules for forfaitingthe first ever developed were officially endorsed by the United Nations (UN) in July 2017, recognising the important place already occupied by the rules in the private sector. A better vantage point to drive growth Reliable and cost-effective financing is integral to the global trading system, helping companies to mitigate the risks and costs involved in the international flow of goods. This role makes the trade finance industry particularly sensitive to the politics of world trade, andas this tenth anniversary edition of the Global Survey report demonstrates this is only one of many trends that that banks are factoring into their risk assessment as they gauge the economic horizon. Digital technologies, from big data to blockchain, are also transforming the global trade finance industry, bringing in a new generation of players and business models and driving the movement towards paperless trade. From its creation ten years ago, the Global Survey has offered an unparalleled snapshot of the many challenges and opportunities facing the trade finance industry and, most importantly, puts these trends in their private sector context. To take digitalisation for example, the Global Survey moves beyond the much- heralded forecasts of how ripe trade finance is for digital disruption to assess the extent to which banks around the world are actually going paperless on the ground. A better view of where businesses are at will allow public and private stakeholders to more effectively drive sustainable growth for trade finance in the 21st century. Mapping challenges for collaborative solutions The same can be said of regulation. This years Global Survey consistently shows that regulatory issues are among respondents top concerns. Looking at further research from ICC and other actors, it is also clear that some financial regulations governing banks have had the unintended consequence of widening the trade finance gap, making it more difficult for smaller companies and traders in the developing world to access much- needed financing. As one standout finding of the Global Survey demonstrates, banks headquartered in Africa are now almost twice as likely to expect the trade finance gap to widen. Following ICC engagement with the UN and national governments in 2017, the trade finance gap and its negative implications for economic development were recognised, with the UN committing to carry out an official review of the gap and its causes. Bringing a greater number and diversity of companies into the international trading system will be key to building popular and political support for trade in the years to come and in turn unleashing trades enormous potential to help us collectively reach the UNs Sustainable Development Goals. As the only private sector Observer to the UN General Assembly and a leading voice for global business across intergovernmental forums, ICC has long held that an inclusive and evidence-based policy process can drive global economic growth and further development goals. The ICC Global Survey is a concise demonstration of this conviction and it is my belief that its findings will contribute to informing an international policy process that aims to share the gains of trade more widely among countries too often see each other as zero-sum competitors. Happy reading. Foreword By John W.H. Denton AO John Denton is Secretary General, International Chamber of Commerce As the ICC Banking Commission held their Annual Meeting in Miami last April, the chosen theme“Navigating trade in a world of disruption”could hardly have been more prescient. In the weeks preceding the meeting, the worlds two largest economies had announced new sets of trade-restricting measures, prompting stock markets to tumble and concerned voices around the world to warn of an impending “trade war”. 6 GLOBAL TRADE SECURING FUTURE GROWTH7 GLOBAL TRADE SECURING FUTURE GROWTHINTRODUCTION Message from the report Chair/Global Trade Securing Future Growth Trade deficit bad. Protectionism good. Exports good. Imports bad. Surely we can do better, even in these highly politicised, cynical times. Informed, thoughtful and statesman-like dialogue on international trade is more urgent than ever. That is the backdrop against which this 10th anniversary edition of the Banking Commissions flagship edition is being published. Trade today is about much more than one nation or one trading partner winning at the expense of another. It is about much more than straightforward imports or exports, and the simplistic, zero-sum rhetoric of the day. So experts must communicate clearly and compellingly on trade - and move beyond dispassionate, academic discourse. Trade is on its way to regaining its familiar, pre-crisis position as an engine of global GDP growth. The fundamental role of trade-related financing and risk mitigation is now broadly acknowledged, and there is a more informed view of the importance of sustainability in trade and global supply chains. Above all, there is greater appreciation for the importance of equitably distributing the benefits of trade around the globe. Digitalisation of trade, both in the physical supply chain and in the financial supply chain, will reshape trade in fundamental ways. The application of disruptive technologies, increasingly ubiquitous platforms that enable trade, and the common application of the latest technology to expand delivery channels: these all expand execution and accelerate transaction lifecycles. Combined, they offer the promise of true transformation, and spreading the benefits of trade more fairly, and into the deepest links in global and regional supply chains. In these new realities trade will help secure global economic growth. Sustainable success demands more than developing and deploying technology; more than adopting new business practices, and even more than rebuilding trust with society, so business can do well by doing good, so trade can be win/ win. Success in fulfilling the promise of trade demands thoughtful, effective advocacy: tell the story in a compelling way of why trade matters and is worth pursuing in an open, rules-based, and more open architecture, and why it is imperative for leaders and influencers to take a wider view of international commerce. This years edition of the ICC Banking Commissions “Global Trade Securing Future Growth” report contributes to this dialogue, viewed through the lens of trade finance and supply chain finance, which trade relies on. The core analysis of key findings from the annual survey is enriched by c