改善巴西的基础设施融资（英文版）.pdf

Improving Infrastructure Financing in Brazil January 2019 Insight Report In collaboration with the Inter-American Development BankWorld Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 Email: contactweforum weforum Copyright 2019 World Economic Forum and Inter-American Development Bank (jointly referred to as the “Co-publishers”). The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the co-publishers, the IDB Board of Directors, the IDB Board of Governors, or the countries they represent. This work is licensed under a Creative Com- mons IGO 3.0 Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives (CC-IGO BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO) license (creativecommons/licenses/ by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/legalcode) and may be repro- duced with attribution to the Co-publishers and for any non-commercial purpose. No derivative work is allowed. Any dispute related to the use of the works of the Co-publishers that cannot be settled amicably shall be submitted to arbitration pursuant to the UNCITRAL rules. The use of the Co-publishers names for any purpose other than for attribution and the use of the Co-publishers logos shall be subject to a separate written license agreement between the Co-publishers and the user, and is not authorized as part of this CCIGO license. Note that link provided above includes additional terms and conditions of the license.3 Improving Infrastructure Financing in Brazil Contents Preface Foreword Executive Summary Changes in the Financing Model Current Funding Sources and Forecasts The Role of BNDES under the New Model Recommendations 1. Crowd in foreign finance by mitigating currency risk 2. Mitigate construction risks by enhancing local market instruments 3. Recycle BNDES assets and further develop capital market instruments by broadening the investor base 4. Reduce the impact of Basel III rules and other restrictions on long-term banking 5. Other recommendations Next Steps and Action Plan Endnotes References Acknowledgements 4 5 6 8 9 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 15 16 174 Improving Infrastructure Financing in Brazil Preface Many governments are finding it difficult to finance the growing demand for essential infrastructure through public funding alone. With the significant increase of debt in many countries while needs for essential infrastructure continue to expand, private-sector involvement has increasingly been viewed as a potential solution to closing the infrastructure financing gap and ensuring the efficient delivery and operation of infrastructure services. Still, private-sector investment in infrastructure, particularly in developing countries, remains low owing to a variety of real and perceived challenges. This insight report is the culmination of a multi-year collaboration between the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Economic Forum Global Future Council on Long-Term Investing, Infrastructure and Development 2016-2018. It presents recommendations that incorporate public and private sector input on how to tackle the key challenges in Brazils infrastructure market. The goal is to enhance trust between the public and private sectors, so that they may jointly mobilize more domestic and international financing to meet Brazils long-term infrastructure needs and increase the participation of long-term investors in Brazils infrastructure market. The recommendations in this report build on those in the World Economic Forum report on Risk Mitigation Instruments in Infrastructure Gap Assessment (2016), and this body of work has provided valuable insights to the Forums National Infrastructure Acceleration Initiative. The recommendations herein were developed through the conduct of interviews with working group members from the private sector and were endorsed by selected policy-makers. We would like to thank the Inter-American Development Bank, the Co-Chairs of the Global Future Council on Long-Term Investing, Infrastructure and Development Rashad R. Kaldany and Alison Tarditi, as well as Global Future Council member Sylvia Coutinho for their executive leadership and support throughout this work, and the interview participants and members of the working group for their invaluable contribution to this work. Maha Eltobgy, Head of Investors and Infrastructure, Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum5 Improving Infrastructure Financing in Brazil Foreword Brazils infrastructure investment as a proportion of GDP is estimated to be around 2%, whereas it is near 7% in China and 5.5% in India. This poses a significant challenge to realize Brazils growth potential. Higher investment in infrastructure would increase export competitiveness and boost productivity growth. Returning Brazil to a sustainable growth path requires scaling up investment in infrastructure to levels at least twice current levels. Political support is key to meeting this challenge. A coordinated effort by all stakeholders from the public sector, market participants and the international community is also essential considering the complex, multidisciplinary and long-term nature of infrastructure investment. This study presents a set of recommendations for Brazil to transition to a new model of infrastructure financing. The recommendations are the result of extensive informal consultations conducted by experts in project finance with relevant stakeholders in the Brazilian infrastructure sector. This effort was facilitated by a pioneering partnership between the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the World Economic Forum (the Forum). Close to 100 interviews and meetings were held with executives of state-owned and privately-owned banks, construction companies, utility companies, asset management firms and government officials. The studys main recommendations concern improving the role of the BNDES, Brazils national development bank, as a private-sector catalyst that mobilizes resources to finance infrastructure projects. While maintaining its essential role in infrastructure financing, the BNDES will have to develop measures to mitigate risks by using project guarantees more extensively and by enlarging the pool of financiers. The recommendations herein echo the international call led by the United Nations, the G20, the G7 and other international fora to enhance the mobilizing role of multilateral development banks (MDBs) by crowding in private resources. Infrastructure development generally finds broad support across the political spectrum. We hope that this report will provide useful guidance and insights for establishing an infrastructure policy agenda for the coming years. Agustin Aguerre, Manager, Infrastructure and Energy Sector Inter-American Development Bank6 Improving Infrastructure Financing in Brazil Executive Summary Brazil is transitioning from a model in which public financing is the dominant source for its infrastructure needs to a more balanced model in which the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) will be a catalyst for domestic and foreign private funding. This transition requires fundamental changes in instruments and rules to better manage risks and standardize the processes, contracts, financing instruments and insurance policies related to infrastructure projects and concessions needed to attract institutional investors. This report presents the opportunities and challenges before the countrys infrastructure sector, with a focus on improved use of project guarantees, mitigation of certain risks, and the use of an enlarged pool of financiers. Since 2014, the financing model for infrastructure projects that had long prevailed in Brazil and depended heavily on concessional BNDES lending, has been challenged by a series of events ranging from corruption scandals to a recession, defaults affecting long-term and bridge loans from banks, and fewer instruments available for covering project risks. Brazils infrastructure is currently insufficient to meet the countrys development needs after years of underinvestment and requires investment conservatively estimated at around 3.2% of GDP over 2019-2024. The total investment needed over the period comes to approximately R$205 billion annually. It is estimated that more than half of that must come from private domestic sources. Improving access to private finance implies changing the role of BNDES from a mere financier to a catalyst capable of mobilizing other sources of finance for infrastructure projects. This means that while BNDES will remain essential to financing infrastructure - especially in sectors such as railways, urban mobility, water and sanitation, and social projects - it will also need to “crowd in” other players by mitigating risks, such as completion risk and currency risk. With respect to currency risk, other Latin American countries, such as Chile and Peru, have demonstrated in the field of energy that by providing power purchase agreements (PPA) in US dollars they have been able to access cheaper and longer-term finance, particularly for renewables, which has led to the reduction of costs of generating electricity. This report presents a series of recommendations intended to address some of the main challenges facing Brazils infrastructure sector as it transitions to this new financing model. Key recommendations include: 1. Crowd in foreign finance by mitigating currency risk Three measures to mitigate the risk associated with foreign exchange fluctuations are particularly worth pursuing: Encourage the electricity sector to offer certain power purchase agreements (for instance, for renewables and transmission lines) in US dollars, up to a cap (for example, 10% of total sector revenues). This will allow concessionaires to access longer-term and cheaper financing in international markets, and ultimately reduce electricity prices for consumers. Explore the advantages and disadvantages of using hedging mechanisms such as those recently used for toll roads and airport projects that allow for the risks of funding in foreign currency, limited to a cap, to be offset against the variable grant payments to the government. Improve the liquidity of long currency swaps. This market in Brazil is highly liquid only for terms of up to five years. Making longer-term swaps more liquid could serve as an option for projects where the two previous alternatives are neither feasible nor available. 2. Mitigate construction risks by enhancing local market instruments Reinforce Brazilian insurers insurance policy for completion risks, to differentiate it from banking guarantees by requiring the former to cover the physical completion of a project and the latter its financial completion. Standardize engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts in infrastructure projects.7 Improving Infrastructure Financing in Brazil Develop “Mini-Perm” loans, which are long-term loans that commercial banks extend to a concessionaire, and that allow the bank to execute a PUT option against another lender after the physical and financial completion of the project. Enhance project finance through the involvement of multilateral development banks (MDBs), in partnership with BNDES, to partially or fully guarantee infrastructure debentures (a project bond exempt from income tax) during the construction phase. 3. Recycle BNDES assets and further develop capital market instruments by broadening the investor base BNDES could facilitate the prepayment of debts currently allowed but difficult to do so that concessionaires can take long-term loans with BNDES but prepay them by issuing infrastructure debentures. This would also allow BNDES to recycle its capital and support more projects. Regarding infrastructure debentures: Extend the exemption to bonds denominated in Brazilian reals issued abroad, to differentiate, in tax terms, from the jurisdiction in which the bond is issued. Shift the tax benefits from the investor to the issuer. This would help level the playing field between foreign investors, pension funds and other investors. 4. Reduce the impact of Basel III rules and other restrictions on long-term banking Capital requirements after Basel III dramatically reduced the capacity of banks to finance large projects in Brazil. To address this issue, this study makes the following recommendation: Use capital market financing, not constrained by Basel III regulations, more intensively. Specifically, BNDES operations conducted through commercial banks could be structured as debentures. This would give commercial banks more flexibility to reduce their balance sheets and capital requirements over time. Responsibilities for improving infrastructure financing in Brazil should be borne by both public and private agents. On the one hand, recommendations related to tax equalization on debentures and bonds, investment fund requirements and Basel III rules can only be led by the government. On the other, standardization of engineering, procurement and construction contracts, insurance policies, step-in clauses, and Mini-Perms should be led by capital market associations, BNDES and major commercial banks. Once private agents start adopting these practices, they are likely to become market standards. The ultimate goal of these reforms is to improve the coverage, access and quality of infrastructure services for Brazilian citizens and to increase Brazils long-term growth potential by creating business opportunities in the infrastructure sector. The Inter-American Development Bank and the World Economic Forum, sponsors of the study that serves as the basis of this report, stand ready to support the implementation of these recommendations by the Brazilian government.8 Improving Infrastructure Financing in Brazil Changes in the Financing Model The prevailing financing model for infrastructure projects in Brazil has undergone tremendous change in recent years. The previous model depended heavily on concessional BNDES funding, based on the subsidized Taxa de Juros de Longo Prazo (TJLP), or Long-Term Interest Rate. 2Large corporations that could provide real assets or banking guarantees as collateral were the main borrowers. These long-term funds were usually released around two years after the start of projects, which is why commercial banks often provided bridge loans to cover this gap. Since 2014, many factors have challenged this model. First, an investigation into corrupt practices, the Operao Lava-Jato (“Carwash Operation”), undermined most of the large engineering, procurement and construction companies operating in Brazil. Second, the most serious economic crisis in 80 years led to an 8% decline i