2030年的广告业：专家对未来广告业的预测（英文版）.pdf

Advertising in 2030Expert predictions on the future of advertisingKate Scott-DawkinsSenior Director, Thought Leadership and InnovationBelinda SumaliSenior DesignerVivienne NgoDesignerOona GleesonJunior DesignerMark SyalChief Product Officer, EMEAEssence, part of GroupM, is a global data and measurement-driven agency whose mission is to make advertising more valuable to the world. We help top brands earn valuable connections with their consumers. essenceglobalAuthorsDesign its the only unique answer.” In 10 years, its prevalence will only be limited by the spread of technology. “In Africa, the retail industry is very different than the Western and Asian world. Informal retail structures still dominate in most markets (80% in Nigeria). These countries are mobile first and mobile focused and if biometric data comes with mobile, it will have an economic relevance. There are fewer concerns about privacy,” said Federico de Nardis of GroupM Sub Saharan Africa.However, there is disagreement over the extent to which biometric data will be in use as a common data currency. Most people felt a global approach was unlikely, and that the use of biometric data would vary by regioni.e., an inescapable surveillance society in some countries with authoritarian regimes, or a much more respectful and user-controlled world in others. Vismay Sharma, Managing Director of LOral in the UK and Ireland, commenting on European societies, said “Consumers will be able to have full control and provide access to their personal data to corporations depending upon the value exchange. Technologies like blockchain will facilitate this as the interfaces become more sophisticated and adoption rates go up.” Konrad Feldman, CEO of Quantcast feels that there is work for brands to do, to take advantage of the opportunities “While increasingly used, there will be questions around the privacy and security implications. I expect to see significant differences in different parts of the world with biometrics being used extensively in countries like China. Elsewhere, companies that provide a clear value proposition to consumers in terms of convenience will have an opportunity to become trusted brands in the biometric access space.”Respondents plotted by their responses to six scenarios involving data and AIWe looked at the relationship between how our panelists responded to the three data scenarios and the three scenarios tied to AIs propensity to replace functions currently served by humanswhether brand interactions would be bot-to-bot, whether AI would be used to create content, and whether the ascendancy of AI would lead to human wage loss. Plotting each of the respondents against these two axes (high to low data access and high to low job displacement) revealed three clear groups of respondents, as seen in the chart below. The world is unlikely to advance at the same pace everywhere, or in the same way.For that reason, many future states may exist simultaneously as we progress through to 2030.Data and PersonalizationData and Personalization 1514The value exchange: Personalization in return for dataMany of the people we interviewed thought that in return for the use of data, customers would demand an ever-more personalized experience. Aaron Goldman, CMO of 4C Insights, said that “Consumers have an expectation of pervasive personalization in all experiences, especially content and commerce. By 2030 it wont just be an expectation, it will be a reality. When it comes to content and commerce, the delivery mechanism will be closed ecosystems that enable brands to insert themselves fluidly into the experience as a true value add.” However, there was no consensus on how fully this vision would be realized by 2030. Christian Juhl, CEO of GroupM, sounded a more cautious note: “One thing Ive learned is that the rate of change even 10 years out will be slower than we think its going to be. In order for that to be happening youve got to retool every manufacturing facility in the world. Youd have to get consumer buy-in for the leveraging of DNA and medical information. Thats far away.” Rob Norman agreed: “Therell be a third of the people for whom that is true and think its a good idea; a third of the people for whom it will be true, but see it as a bad idea; and a third of the people for whom it wont be true.” But hyper-personalization is a trend thats here to stay, and will spread into more areas of content and experience.Its clear that a debate on issues of privacy and data ownership, especially with regards to biometric data, is long overdue. Janet Balis, Partner at EY, suggested that global authorities could step in to regulate the emerging situation, “In an ideal world, there is no question that a universal framework for consumer data privacy and regulation would benefit government, consumers and businesses (if structured properly). However, the likelihood is that the federated nature of this issue in the US alone wont even let this be a national issue in this critical economy. Currently, an institution like the UN seems unlikely to facilitate alignment on this type of issue, given the magnitude of other global challenges they face, let alone sufficiently understand the network effects both cost and benefit of regulating these complex data and technological issues appropriately.”The challenges facing advertisers and consumers are increasingly global in scale, and yet it seemed to our experts as though the solutions are likely to be more fragmented and thus less predictable. Nearly 68% thought it highly unlikely that the worlds governmental bodies would all align on a single approach for regulating digital identity and privacy. Data and PersonalizationData and Personalization 1716What does this mean for the future of advertising?Take the opportunity to create a data strategy, if you have not already done so, and make sure that its future-proof enough to deal with the increase in biometric data and permission management thats bound to come with its use. Doing so will create the platform to have ever more meaningful and in-depth conversations with your customers. Global brands should cater to all potential customershyper-personalization may be a desired and sought-after thing in advanced economies, but it will not be relevant for the third of people who struggle to put food on the table. Technology may not advance quickly enough in all regions to enable this before 2030. Change happens slowlyand then quicklyso you will need to be ready to move having anticipated what your customers will need.The lines between advertising content and customer relationship marketing will continue to blur. People do not want to see the joins between these elementsthey just want to consume the brand or brand experience. The technology and data to do this at scale will emerge in the next 10 years.Will biometric data free us or enslave us?An underlying theme in many comments suggested that governments everywhere would be making more use of highly personal data, such as DNA. “Governments already have access to considerable amounts of personal data. With respect to corporations, consumers will have a choice over which corporations have which data and for what purpose,” said Konrad Feldman.However, the growth of biometric technology and data are not without positives. Matt Pollington, Head of Digital, Discover Lab at Sky, felt that those positives can be realized, but that it will take a high degree of effort among businesses to enable that. “I think everything being personalized based on chosen settings such as historical data or other sources is highly likely to happen. My bias and my hope is that things that are incredibly sensitive such as genetic and medical information will be more closely governed. I think whats really interesting here is the emergence, whether it be privately or publicly governed, of a kind of middleware thats going to allow all of that to be aggregated and secured. I definitely think that thats a burden on industry, so itll be interesting to see how thats built into future legislation or even productized from a privacy perspective.”Content, Creativity and Media 19Data and Personalization18Content, Creativity and MediaAI and contentBy 2030, will AI be creating the content you watch in the evening or read over breakfast? In general, our panelists say that it wontthough some, including many of our European experts, disagree. According to Tobias Hefele of Weischer.Cinema, its already here: “The first examples have already arrived in societywhether Alexa, Echo, or the machine learning product from Audi to calculate traffic light phases in real time. Partially autonomous driving due to ACC or lane assist and soon fully autonomous driving are indications of this. Why should it be different in the media and advertising companies?” Dr. Veronica Barassi, from the University of St. Gallen, thinks there will be limits to what AI can achieve: “I believe that AIs are not going to be able to learn the symbols in the same ways that humans learn symbols. When we learn symbols and when we learn about life, we have different ways of understanding what is being taught to us. And one way in which we understand things and we learn things is through our bodies and through our lived experience. Creative energy stems from that embodied experience, which an AI wont have.” Many of our panellists felt that the human element was always going to be needed, although AI could play a role in mass tailoring of content or in creating low-grade content. However, some of our panellists were looking forward to a world where AI creativity was making a larger impact. Cliff Kuang, author of User Friendly, felt that the spread of AI would necessitate a change in the human creative process: “Certainly AI might be used to tailor a movie to an audience, for example. The locus of creativity would then move from creating a fixed artifact, to creating a framework for an evolving or mutable artifact.” Rob Middleton of Sprinklr said, “Well probably see things we have never seen before. Well see new forms of creativity that we couldnt have anticipated that will come from this.” Mahesh Sudhakaran of IBM highlighted to us: “It wont be efficient for individuals to make the hundreds of daily decisions that advertisers seek to influence. AI will make more and more of those decisions, freeing up people to be more efficient, creative, and productive. AI will disrupt industries in the coming decade, and we will see tighter partnerships between man and machine, with each augmenting tasks they are good at.”Ad avoidance continuesIt was generally felt that while many people would still seek to avoid ads, it would be difficult to actually achieve this. More established physical media may even see a revival in popularity as the world divides into those who pay to avoid ads, and those who remain easily reachable. Jane Ostler, Global Head of Media Effectiveness, Insights Division at Kantar, said, “I think that we see outdoor advertising, for example, having a resurgenceit will be driven more by personalization, and you cant really avoid outdoor advertising. Online, there will probably be other ways that we havent thought of yet to avoid advertising. I do agree with the thesis that there will be people who will see more advertising because they are accessing free services, and a greater divide. If you can afford to, you can avoid it.” It remains to be seen whether the business models of the many subscription video on demand services will survive to 2030Netflix dominates currently, but it is not profitable and is now surrounded by competitors.Consumers may well come up with new techniques to avoid ads, but marketers will of course come up with new and different ways to reach them. They may even make better use of much older, more established techniques. “Advertising will increasingly take subtler forms, such as product placement or sponsorship”, said Allgre Hadida of Cambridge Judge Business School. It feels hard to see how these types of commercial opportunities wont become more common in a world that may become even more dominated by ad-free subscription platforms. It will be interesting to see whether these commercial opportunities end up belonging to the platforms, or to the actual content producers. The world of TV content production has changed dramatically in the last five yearswith the UKs ITV becoming the largest creator of scripted programming for Netflix in the US and studios such as Disney and the BBC pulling their back catalogues from the service to help bolster their own offerings. Advertising will continue to evolve as the means of content transmission and production continue to democratize. We have already seen the mire created by influencers in social media and on video platforms whose contents often promote products and are not always labelled clearly as advertising.