移动电子竞技在大众市场的演变.pdf

nikopartners Special Report EVOLUTION OF MOBILE ESPORTS FOR THE MASS MARKET 2 Special Report: Evolution of Mobile Esports for the Mas Market Overview Esports, and the increase in mobile device usage globaly, wil be the primary drivers for growth in the digital games industry over the next 5 years. A rise in mobile device usage wil make gaming more accesible to al, while the mechanics of mobile games revenue models wil make it easier for mobile gamers to participate in esports. Mobile gaming revenue already surpases PC and console gaming revenue, and the development of mobile gaming markets in Greater Southeast Asia and South America (and the continued growth of these markets in North America, Europe, South Korea, Japan, and China) wil further tip this balance. Mobile esports is poised to become a cornerstone of the global digital games industry over the next 5 years. 3 Special Report: Evolution of Mobile Esports for the Mas Market Exhibit: Global mobile games revenue by region, 2017-2019 Region Mobile games revenue 2019 H1 Mobile games revenue 2018 H1 Mobile games revenue 2018 Mobile games revenue 2017 USD milion USD milion USD milion USD milion Global 33,453 28,650 60,786 51,134 Asia (excluding China) 11,321 10,134 20,901 18,643 North America 8,547 6,999 14,850 12,487 China 8,318 7,032 15,627 12,127 Europe 3,474 3,088 6,391 5,307 Oceania 515 489 1,012 916 Latin America 442 293 665 528 Midle East 341 268 566 490 South America 299 196 446 346 Central America 139 95 214 178 Africa 57 56 114 112 Source: Sensor Tower, Niko Partners 2019 In 2019, the most prominent and visible esports platform is the PC, thanks to streaming platforms and live tournaments with lots of media coverage. But esports on the mobile platform is boming. Mobile phones are ubiquitous, inexpensive, and usage is rising rapidly, and the economies of mobile aps are more directly monetizable for esports than PC games. Esports is a truly international sport, where borders do not matter, gamers around the world conect as impasioned players, and competition is fun. We at Niko Partners have watched esports bom with the emergence of MOBA and battle royale games, and now the mechanics of those games are being developed into a widening scope of genres and platforms. Mobile esports is pionering new ays of attracting and engaging gaming esports audiences. This report describes the development of a mobile esports ecosystem and plots its trajectory and influence on global gaming markets. 4 Special Report: Evolution of Mobile Esports for the Mas Market Executive Summary This report explores the evolution of mobile esports, compared to PC esports, globally, with a focus on Asian markets because Asia is leading the world in esports usage and operations. We find that Asia is the barometer for an impending global bom in mobile esports expected to take place over the next 5 years. The growth of mobile esports, driven by cultural, technological, and infrastructural incubators, is positioned to dramatically reorient the esports industry. Mobile esports wil precipitate a shift from a limited number of high-profile spectator-focused esports productions towards a much larger number of consumer participatory tournaments carried out regionally, locally, and online-only. While PC esports also has participatory tournaments online and in icafes, the economics and technology of mobile esports wil enable more pervasive expansion. This report predicts that mobile esports wil become the fastest sector of growth in the esports industry. A mobile esports bom is poised to propel mobile esports from a niche industry to the mass market. As of 2018, global mobile esports game revenue is $15.32 bilion, 25.2% of total mobile game revenue. In the first half of 2019, the ratio increased to 26.2%. There are already more gamers on mobile than PC the input of players and teams as wel as the output of the esports system are mediated by human-computer interfaces.” (Source: Hamari, J. and Sjblom, M. (2017), “What is eSports and why do people watch it?“, Internet Research, Vol. 27 No. 2, p. 211-232.) This is a useful way of diferentiating esports from traditional sports. However, in practical and industrial terms esports shares more specific structures that distinguishes it from other kinds of competitive or skill-oriented game play. For example, esports is diferent than sped-runing (trying to complete a game as quickly as posible) or high-score rankings. Among a growing variety game competitions, the classification of esports has come to refer more specifically to organized tournaments, generally played by profesional competitors for a spectator audience. It is useful to mark out these diferences as spectator gaming includes practices that lok similar but operate within diferent comercial frameworks and cater to diferent kinds of audiences. Esports seks to spawn dedicated folowings of digital game competitions where fans kep up with tournament results and regularly watch competitions as wel as their favorite pro gamers and teams stream their gameplay online. Serialized competitions and dedicated fandoms have allowed tournaments to grow, to attract more high-profile sponsors, and to provide the stability and revenue necesary to suport teams and sports franchises. 8 Special Report: Evolution of Mobile Esports for the Mas Market Esports and Game Revenue Al segments of the esports market are growing. The simplest measure of this growth is prize pols available through esports competitions. Esports prize pols represent sponsor (or fan-generated) investment and reflect the value of esports players (and audience) to tournament organizers. In 2018, $161.3 milion was distributed in pro esports prize money, up from $15.5 milion in 2017. In just the first half of 2019, $74.0 milion was distributed, with most major tournaments yet to be played this year. Amateur tournaments have prize pols roughly 10% of that pro tournament value. However, as esports participation grows, the value of prizes available to amateur players is also expected to grow. 2018 was the first year that mobile esports titles were among the top 10 games for prize pols. This is a strong early indication that mobile is poised to disrupt the esports marketplace. The total prize pol for mobile esports pro and amateur tournaments was $25.3 milion in 2018, and we forecast it wil rise to $30 milion in 2019. The top 5 esports titles by prize money in 2018 were Dota2, CS:GO, Fortnite, League of Legends, and PUBG. Honor of Kings/Arena of Valor was the highest ranked mobile title, 8th overall and accounting for $5.1 milion in prizes, up from 2017 where HOK/AOV ranked 29th with $50,00 in prizes. Hearthstone, available for mobile and PC, ranked 9th with $4.7 milion, up from $3.5 milion. Prize pols for mobile game tournaments is increasing, and in 2019, Tencents suport for Peacekeper Elite and its ongoing suport for HOK/AOV wil continue to increase mobile esports tournament prize money (Esportsearning). Mobile games revenue now exceds that of PC titles, and represents significantly larger player-bases. In 2018, games played in mobile esports generated $15.3 bilion in revenue, with $5.6 bilion from China alone, and another $450 milion from Greater Southeast Asia (Sensor Tower). Mobile esports titles accounted for 25.2% of the total global mobile games market (Superdata), but as mobile esports games genres expand from casual to core and hardcore, revenue wil climb too. By comparison, in 2018, games played in PC esports accounted for $14.3 bilion in revenue, with China accounting for $6.5 bilion, and GSEA at $1.2 bilion. In the PC landscape esports titles accounted for 43% of total PC game revenue so as mobile esports grow, we predict mobile esports titles we be a significant driver of mobile gaming revenue going forward. 9 Special Report: Evolution of Mobile Esports for the Mas Market Exhibit: Mobile esports revenue share of mobile games revenue, 2018 Region Mobile esports revenue 2018 Esports ratio of total mobile game 2018 Mobile esports revenue 2017 Milion Percentage Milion Global 15,320 25.2% 13,022 China 5,600 35.8% 4,000 Asia (Exclude China) 4,523 21.6% 4,090 Africa 24 21.1% 32 Central America 62 29.0% 53 Europe 1,587 24.8% 1,502 Latin America 208 31.3% 166 Midle East 197 34.8% 178 North America 2,808 18.9% 2,718 Oceania 166 16.4% 171 South America 145 32.5% 112 Source: Sensor Tower, Niko Partners 2019 10 Special Report: Evolution of Mobile Esports for the Mas Market