网络视频盗版对美国经济的影响.pdf

JUNE 2019 IMPACTS OF DIGITAL VIDEO PIRACY ON THE U.S. ECONOMY DAVID BLACKBURN, PH.D . JEFFREY A. EISENACH, PH.D . DAVID HARRISON JR., PH.D.The Chambers Global Innovation Policy Center is working around the world to champion innovation and creativity through intellectual property standards that create jobs, save lives, advance global economic and cultural prosperity, and generate breakthrough solutions to global challenges. NERA Economic Consulting (nera) is a global firm of experts dedicated to applying economic, finance, and quantitative principles to complex business and legal challenges. For half a century, NERAs economists have been creating strategies, studies, reports, expert testimony, and policy recommendations for government authorities and the worlds leading law firms and corporations. NERA serves clients from more than 25 offices across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is the worlds largest business federation representing the interests of more than 3 million businesses of all sizes, sectors, and regions, as well as state and local chambers and industry associations. U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 3 JUNE 2019 FOREWORD Revolutionary technologies and new methods to distribute content are enabling consumers to access video streaming on virtually any connected device from any location. As of 2018, there are more video streaming subscribers than paid-TV subscribers worldwide, accessing over 500 licensed online video portals. As a result of this rapid expansion and exploding consumer demand, the industry is producing original content at an unprecedented rate and creating new and innovative ways for consumers to watch their favorite sports around the world, their favorite television series, their favorite movies, and countless other consumer choices. This eruption of consumer choices is fueled by rapidly adapting creative and technology industries, which employ up to 2.6 million workers in the U.S. and provide $229 billion in annual economic benefits to the U.S. economy. However, as legal streaming access has proliferated, so has digital piracy, as criminal actors adapt to take advantage of new technologies and consumer behaviors. Research indicates that more than 80% of piracy is attributable to streaming. Illegal streaming is enabled by piracy devices and apps, which have overtaken BitTorrent and other download-based technologies that deliver unauthorized live television shows and video on demand over the internet. Impacts of Digital Piracy on the U.S. Economy takes a close look at how piracy stifles the economic growth and progress generated by streaming. The study shows that all of the benefits that streaming brings to our economy have been artificially capped by digital piracy. Using macroeconomic modeling of digital piracy, the study estimates that global online piracy costs the U.S. economy at least $29.2 billion in lost revenue each year. Digital video piracy results in significant losses to the U.S. economy, harming businesses ranging from content production firms to the innovative technology companies that are driving the digital distribution revolution. While there is no single solution, global collaboration among industries and governments to educate consumers of the dangers of piracy, coupled with the expansion of legal options in cases of infringement, is necessary to curb these negative effects. All parties must continue to work creatively and constructively to enable dreamers, innovators, and creators around the world to continue to tell their unique stories and advance our culture and economy. David Hirschmann President and CEO Global Innovation Policy Center U.S. Chamber of Commerce The study estimates that global online piracy costs the U.S. economy at least $29.2 billion in lost revenue each year.IMPACTS OF DIGITAL VIDEO PIRACY ON THE U.S. ECONOMY GLOBAL INNOVATION POLICY CENTER | NERA ECONOMIC CONSULTING 4 PROJECT TEAM David Blackburn, Ph.D. Jeffrey A. Eisenach, Ph.D. David Harrison Jr., Ph.D. Andrew Busey Corinne Candilis Katya Dajani Patrick McGervey Prepared for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce NERA Economic Consulting 1255 23rd St., NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC 20037 Tel: 202-466-3510 Fax: 202-466-3605 NERA Economic Consulting 99 High Street, 16th Floor Boston, MA 02110 Tel: 617-927-4500 Fax: 617-927-4501U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE i JUNE 2019TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .ii I. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW .1 II. FORGONE REVENUES TO U.S. INDUSTRIES FROM VIDEO PIRACY .2 A. Prior Research .2 B. Geography of Global Piracy . 3 C. Revenue Losses to U.S. Content Providers . 4 III. IMPACTS OF DIGITAL VIDEO PIRACY ON THE U.S. ECONOMY .8 A. Modeling Approach and IMPLAN Inputs .8 B. Estimated Impacts of Digital Video Piracy on the U.S. Economy .13 IV. CONCLUSIONS .16 APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING U.S. REVENUE LOSSES FROM DIGITAL VIDEO PIRACY . A-1 APPENDIX B: OVERVIEW OF THE IMPLAN MODEL . B-1 A. Introduction to IMPLAN and Input-Output Analysis. B-1 B. IMPLAN Databases . B-2 C. IMPLAN Multipliers .B-5 ENDNOTES . E-1IMPACTS OF DIGITAL VIDEO PIRACY ON THE U.S. ECONOMY GLOBAL INNOVATION POLICY CENTER | NERA ECONOMIC CONSULTING ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY KEY FINDINGS The U.S. movie and television production and distribution industry is an important component of the U.S. economy, with revenues in 2017 of about $229 billion. It is also a major job creator, directly supporting 927,000 jobs and 2.6 million in total. Video streaming accounts for a large and growing share of content industry revenuesindeed, there are more than 500 licensed online video portals worldwide and as of 2018, more video streaming subscribers than pay-TV subscribers. This growth is threatened by the increase in streaming-enabled piracy, which has overtaken BitTorrent and other download-based technologies as the primary vehicle for digital video piracy. Overall, approximately 26.6 billion viewings of U.S.-produced movies and 126.7 billion viewings of U.S.-produced TV episodes are pirated digitally each year, mostly from outside the U.S. The impact of digital video piracy on revenues of the U.S. content production sector and related industries depends on the extent to which piracy is assumed to displace legal purchases. Based on a broad range of estimates, we find that digital video piracy conservatively causes lost domestic revenues of at least $29.2 billion and as much as $71.0 billion annually, representing a revenue reduction between 11% and 24%. Digital video piracy not only causes lost revenues to the U.S. content production sector, it also results in losses to the U.S. economy of between 230,000 and 560,000 jobs and between $47.5 billion and $115.3 billion in reduced gross domestic product (GDP) each year. While piracy remains a problem in the U.S., our analysis indicates that most of these losses (223,000 to 541,000 jobs and $45.7 billion to $111.1 billion in lost GDP) are due to digital video piracy of U.S. content by non-U.S. residents. METHODOLOGY We utilize a well-established national macroeconomic model (IMPLAN) to estimate the overall impacts on the U.S. economy from digital video piracy, focusing primarily on digital piracy by non-U.S. residents of U.S content but also on U.S. digital video piracy. The IMPLAN model takes as inputs estimates of the potential losses in revenue to U.S. producers and others due to digital video piracy. Revenue losses are based on estimates of the number of digitally pirated movies and TV episodes, the market value of the pirated content, and the fractions of pirated digital video content that would be purchased and paid for absent piracy. Our modeling approach yields estimates of the net effects of piracy on the U.S. economy, including direct, indirect, and induced effects. Our figures are based on a range of estimates of the proportion of pirated content that would have been paid for if it had not been available through piracy (the “displacement rate”). Based on prior research, our lower-bound estimates assume a displacement rate of 14%; our upper-bound estimates assume a displacement rate of 34%. Our estimates of the economic impact of piracy are conservative in that they do not incorporate the effects of piracy on the quantity of video content produced in the U.S., which we expect would be negative; if these effects were included, our estimates would be higher.U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 1 JUNE 2019 I. Introduction and Overview This study assesses losses to the U.S. economy resulting from digital piracy of video content produced and/or distributed by U.S. companies. The U.S. video content industry is a major contributor to the U.S. economy, both in terms of revenue and jobs, accounting for $229 billion in revenue and directly supporting 927,000 jobs and 2.6 million in total in 2017. 1However, the industry suffers from online video piracy, which has been and continues to be a significant channel of video consumption both domestically and abroad. Video distribution technologies are shifting rapidly in the direction of video streaming: there are now more than 500 licensed online video portals worldwide 2and more subscribers to subscription streaming services than traditional pay TV. 3The nature of online piracy has evolved as well: Just a few years ago, it was estimated that BitTorrent downloads accounted for nearly 40% of digital video piracy, but recent research indicates that more than 80% is now attributable to streaming. 4This new piracy ecosystem has been boosted by the proliferation of piracy devices and apps that deliver unauthorized live television shows and video on-demand over the internet and directly to the television set. 5These rapid changes necessitate up-to-date estimates of the impact of digital piracy. 6 Previous studies have estimated specific aspects of the effects of piracy; We consolidate prior empirical estimates and the most recent available data to provide a more complete picture of how piracy affects the entire U.S. economy. We build on previous literature and improve on previous estimation methods by considering data specific to each method of consumption. Using a BitTorrent tracking database as well as publicly available data, we estimate the total amount of digital video piracy, broken down by region (U.S. vs. non-U.S.) of content production and of pirating activity. We also estimate the weighted average price of watching a movie or TV episode and review the literature on piracys displacement of legal consumption to produce estimates of revenue losses in the affected industries. Finally, we model the impact of those revenue losses on the U.S. economy, quantifying the losses from digital video piracy in terms of lost jobs and reduced gross domestic product (GDP). The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Section II discusses the existing literature on piracys displacement of paid video consumption and describes our methodology for estimating the revenue losses to U.S. companies associated with digital video piracy. Section III provides the methodology we use to estimate the overall impacts of global digital video piracy on the U.S. economy and presents the results of our impact analysis. Section IV presents a brief conclusion.2 IMPACTS OF DIGITAL VIDEO PIRACY ON THE U.S. ECONOMY GLOBAL INNOVATION POLICY CENTER | NERA ECONOMIC CONSULTING II. Forgone Revenues to U.S. Industries from Video Piracy The first step in our analysis is to estimate the impact of piracy on the revenues of U.S. industries. The revenue impacts of piracy depend primarily on three magnitudes: (1) the amount of digital piracy (i.e., how many movies and TV episodes are viewed through pirated sources); (2) the extent of displacement (i.e., how many of those movies and TV episodes would have been purchased if they had not been pirated); and (3) the revenue per unit (i.e., how much revenue the U.S.-based content producing and related industries would have received for each displaced sale). In the first section below, we review the existing literature on these topics. In the second section, we explain how the economic effects of piracy differ based on both where it was produced and where it was pirated. In the third section, we present our methodology for estimating revenue losses from digital video piracy and our results. A. PRIOR RESEARCH There is an extensive existing literature on the degree of digital video piracy and the extent to which it displaces authorized viewing. Using a variety of methodologies, these studies have found that piracy displaces a significant number of authorized viewings. We review studies of displacement effects in the first subsection below and studies of the total volume of piracy in the second subsection. 7 1. Displacement Effects of Digital Video Piracy Several studies estimate the effect of piracy on the consumption of licensed content. Together, they span a variety of geographies, populations, time periods, and media. Some studies rely on natural experiments involving changes in the availability of pirated content. For example, Danaher and Smith found in 2014 that the shutdown of Megaupload led to an increase in digital revenues of between 6.5% and 8.5% for three major studios. 8Similarly, Danaher, Smith, and Telang found that the shutdown of 53 piracy sites in the U.K. in November 2015 led to a 6% increase in visits to paid streaming sites an