世界银行-2019全球经济前景黯淡.pdf

A World Bank Group Flagship ReportGlobal Economic Prospects JANUARY 2019 Darkening SkiesJANUARY 2019 III Summary of Contents Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Boxes Global Outlook: Darkening Skies. 1 Regional Outlooks . 55 Growing in the Shadow: Challenges of Informality. 127 Two Topical Essays . 197 Debt in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Implications, and Remedies . 199 Poverty Impact of Food Price Shocks and Policies . 209 Box 1.1 T_he great disinf_lation . 8 Box 1.2 Low-income countries: Recent developments and outlook . 22 Box 1.3 Regional perspectives: Recent developments and outlook . 26 Box 2.1.1 Informality in East Asia and Pacif_ic . 63 Box 2.2.1 Informality in Europe and Central Asia . 75 Box 2.3.1 Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean . 85 Box 2.4.1 Informality in the Middle East and North Africa . 95 Box 2.5.1 Informality in South Asia. 104 Box 2.6.1 Informality in Sub-Saharan Africa . 113 Box 3.1 Linkages between formal and informal sectors . 132 Box 3.2 Regional dimensions of informality: An overview .140 Box 3.3 Casting a shadow: Productivity in formal and informal f_irms . 146 Box 3.4 Under the magnifying glass: How do policies affect informality? . 155 V Table of Contents Chapter 1 Foreword.xiii Acknowledgments . xv Executive Summary . xvii Abbreviations . xix Global Outlook: Darkening Skies.1 Summary .3 Major economies: Recent developments and outlook.7 United States . 7 Euro Area .13 Japan .13 China.14 Global trends . 15 Global trade . 15 Financial markets . 17 Commodities . 18 Emerging market and developing economies: Recent developments and outlook . 19 Recent developments . 20 EMDE outlook . 28 Risks to the outlook. 30 Disorderly f_inancial market developments . 31 Escalating trade restrictions . 32 Policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions . 33 Region-specif_ic downside risks . 35 Simultaneous slowdown in the two largest economies . 35 Possible productivity revival . 37 Policy challenges . 37 Challenges in advanced economies . 37 Challenges in emerging market and developing economies . 39 References . 47 Box 1.1 T_he great disinf_lation .8 Box 1.2 Low-income countries: Recent developments and outlook . 22 Box 1.3 Regional perspectives: Recent developments and outlook . 26 VI Regional Outlooks . 55 East Asia and Pacific . 57 Recent developments. 57 Outlook. 59 Risks . 61 Box 2.1.1 Informality in East Asia and Pacific . 63 Europe and Central Asia . 69 Recent developments. 69 Outlook. 70 Risks . 71 Box 2.2.1 Informality in Europe and Central Asia . 75 Latin America and the Caribbean . 79 Recent developments. 79 Outlook. 80 Risks . 82 Box 2.3.1 Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean . 85 Middle East and North Africa . 89 Recent developments. 89 Outlook. 90 Risks . 91 Box 2.4.1 Informality in the Middle East and North Africa . 95 South Asia . 99 Recent developments. 99 Outlook.100 Risks .102 Box 2.5.1 Informality in South Asia . 104 Sub-Saharan Africa . 107 Recent developments.107 Outlook.109 Risks .110 Box 2.6.1 Informality in Sub-Saharan Africa . 113 References .118 Chapter 2 VII Chapter 4 Two Topical Essays . 197 Debt in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Implications, and Remedies . 199 Introduction . 199 Key characteristics of the recent rise in LIC debt . 199 Other LIC vulnerabilities . 202 Role of better debt management . 204 Complementary policy measures . 206 Conclusion . 207 Annex 4.1 Comparison of LIDCs and LICs. 208 Growing in the Shadow: Challenges of Informality .127 Introduction . 129 Informality: Conceptual considerations and measurement . 136 Main features of the informal economy . 137 Causes and implications of informality. 143 Correlates of informality . 144 Informality, poverty, and income inequality . 152 Worker earnings differentials . 152 Aggregate income inequality and poverty. 154 Informality and fiscal outcomes. 158 Policy options . 158 Fiscal policy measures. 159 Business climate and governance measures . 160 From a comprehensive strategy to implementation . 162 Emerging policy opportunities and challenges . 162 Annex 3.1 Measures of informality . 163 Annex 3.2 Characteristics of informal-economy business cycles. 167 Annex 3.3 Informality and earnings inequality: A meta-analysis approach . 167 Annex 3.4 Pre-existing informality and changes in poverty and income inequality . 169 Annex 3.5 Labor legislation and informality . 169 References . 184 Box 3.1 Linkages between formal and informal sectors. 132 Box 3.2 Regional dimensions of informality: An overview . 140 Box 3.3 Casting a shadow: Productivity in formal and informal firms . 146 Box 3.4 Under the magnifying glass: How do policies affect informality . 155 Chapter 3 VIII 1.1 Summary - Global prospects . 5 1.2 Global risks and policy challenges . 6 1.3 Advanced economies . 7 1.1.1 Global inflation . 9 1.1.2 Disinflation and factors associated with disinflation . 10 1.1.3 Inflation synchronization. 12 1.1.4 Low inflation episodes. 12 1.4 United States . 13 1.5 Euro Area . 14 1.6 Japan . 14 1.7 China . 15 1.8 Global trade . 16 1.9 Global finance . 17 1.10 Commodity markets . 18 1.11 Activity in EMDEs . 20 1.2.1 Recent developments in low-income countries . 23 1.2.2 Outlook . 24 1.3.1 Regional growth . 27 1.12 EMDE growth prospects . 28 1.13 Poverty and per capita income growth . 29 1.14 Risks: Tilted to the