风起云涌的动力电池市场：如何能够脱颖而出？（英文版）.pdf

September / October 2018 11 FEATURES T he global trend toward elec- tric vehicles is very obviously being reflected in Chinas auto industry. Strong policy support and continual technical advances are the key drivers around the world. For ex- ample, the U.S. government incen- tivizes EV purchases by providing a tax credit of up to US$7,500. China has also set ambitious targets and introduced subsidy policies for new energy vehicles, making China the worlds fastest-growing EV market. The prospect of continued rapid growth in EV sales is beyond doubt. However, with changing subsidy poli- cies and growing maturity of the mar - ket, competition will become increas- ingly intense. The U.S. government is considering cutting the tax credit mentioned above, a move which would have a significant impact on the EV market. Chinas overall subsidies on new energy vehicles in 2017 dropped by 40% compared to 2016, although EVs with high energy density and long battery life continue to receive support from the government. China is plan- ning to stop subsidizing pure EVs with battery life below 150 km but increase subsidies for models with longer bat- tery life. Given the policy changes, the fast-growing EV battery market is facing increasing challenges. Bar- riers to entry are getting higher and the market is consolidating. The number of EV battery manufacturers in China dropped from about 150 in 2016 to fewer than 100 in 2017. So, what are the key success factors?Investing in technologies:Follow the developmentof next-gen technologies NiCoMn/NiCoAl (NCM/NCA) bat- teries enjoy advantages in energy density and are catching up in cost. Energy density: In China, policy guidelines require that the energy density of a passenger vehicle bat- tery must reach 300Wh/kg by 2020 and 500Wh/kg by 2030. NCM/NCA batteries are the only ones that can achieve this level of energy density. Manufacturing costs: Increasing battery production brings economies of scale, and the cost of NCM/NCA batteries is predicted to further decline over the next few years. While the re- cent rise in the price of cobalt is a fac- tor, it is still highly possible that NCM/ NCA batteries will break the threshold of 1,000 RMB/Kwh within two years. Safety and service life: Both the safety and the service life of NCM/ NCA batteries will be further im- proved with technical advances, such as better battery management and cooling systems. The number of full charging cycles for this type of battery will reach 1,200 (nearly a 15- year life) by 2020. We project that global market demand for NCM/NCA batteries will increase rapidly. In addition to NCM/NCA, a series Fast-Moving Ev BattEry MarkEt How to Win the Competition Helen Chen is a managing director and partner at L.E.K. Consulting and serves as the head of L.E.K.s China practice in Shanghai. Chen has 30 years of consulting and industry experience in the U.S. and Asia and has resided in China since 2000. 2012 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, L.E.K analysis 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 EV BattEry 1 1 4 11 3 7 10 18 21 21 28 47 6 10 12 12 16 24 2 2 3 4 5 6 12 21 29 45 Fig.1 Global EV Sales (2012-17) 10K Other U.S. Europe China 70 105 CAGR% (2012-17) 54 18 34 56 139amcham-shanghai 12 of new technologies are emerging that will shape the market in the long run. For example, lithium-ion with solid electrolytes can greatly improve safety and energy density. The energy density of lithium-ion batteries with solid electrolytes can be 2.5 times greater than that of liquid electrolytes. Meanwhile, with the absence of liquid electrolytes, storage becomes eas- ier, and additional cooling systems or electronic controls are not required, significantly enhancing safety. Toyota announced significant progress in solid electrolyte bat- tery research at the end of 2017 and plans to begin shipping cars with solid-state batteries in 2022. In China, several companies and research in- stitutes have also begun research on solid electrolyte batteries. Con- temporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) and China Aviation Lithium Battery Co. (CALB) have both announced that they are accelerat- ing the development and commer- cialization of solid-state batteries. Lithium-ion batteries with solid electrolytes still have problems such as high manufacturing costs, insuffi- cient solid interface stability and low electrolyte conductivity, although these problems will gradually be solved. We believe that early com- mercialization of solid-state batteries might occur by 2022, with gradual achievement of scale industrializa- tion by 2025-2030.Ramping up capacities:accelerate capacitybuildup and drive costdown through scale Manufacturing capacity for EV lithi- um-ion batteries will expand rapidly to reach 180GWh globally by 2020. China will be the fastest-growing country in terms of capacity and will have an es- timated 60%-65% share by 2020, sur- passing the United States. Low capacity and disadvantages in economy of scale will be the major challenges faced by small to midsize manufacturers. Cuts in subsidies and pressure from downstream OEMs will squeeze the profit margins of battery man- ufacturers. Companies need to ex- pand capacity to gain an edge on capacity and cost in order to survive. “Megafactories” with 20GWh capac- ity will bring about significant com- petitive advantages. Capacity expansion results in a re- duction in manufacturing costs. T esla claims that its newly-built megafac- tory will lead to a 30% drop in battery cost. CATL achieved a 15% decrease in battery cost in the past two years through technology upgrades and capacity expansion. Rapid expansion of capacity will bring about financial risks. Therefore, strategic partnerships with down- stream OEMs are vital to risk reduc- tion. The $5 billion joint venture be- tween Panasonic and Tesla is the most well-known example of how EV battery manufacturers cooperate with OEMs to deal with competition and risks. Similarly in China, SAIC and DF Motor invested in CATL, and BYD an- nounced cooperation with Guoxuan High-Tech. These are all considered to be forward-looking strategies.Moving up the value chain:control key technologies and resources throughvertical integration EV battery manufacturers (and some EV manufacturers) consider vertical integration to be key to low- ering costs, extracting more value through synergies both upstream Yong Teng, PhD, is a partner in L.E.K.s Shanghai office and a leader in the firms Industrials practice. He has over 15 years experience working with leading global corporations and Chinese state-owned and private enterprises. Figure 2 NCM/NCA have advantages in energy density and cost Figure 3 Global market demand for NCM/NCA will increase rapidly given more applications Key performance parameters LOW HIGH Source: Xincailiao, GGII, IRENA, Guoxin Securities, L.E.K. analysis Source: CleanTeq, L.E.K. analysis Key performance parameters comparison, 2020 Global EV Battery Demand Forecast by Electrode Material (2015, 2025F) 10k ton NCM/NCA 250-300 Wh/kg 250-300 Wh/kg 250-300 Wh/kg 250-300 Wh/kg 250-300 Wh/kg Low Low Low Low LMO LCO LFP NCM/NCA Low Thermal stability temperature 210 Manage safety through battery management system Thermal stability temperature 150 Thermal stability temperature 1k 1k 20GWh “megafactories” remain scarce though capacity expansion is underway Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, L.E.K. analysis Source: CleanTeq, L.E.K. analysis Wide usage in cellphones, aerospace, etc., drives increasing demand for cobalt Republic of Congo, the main exporter of cobalt, restricts the export of cobalt, leading to tight supply and soaring price Cobalt price plunged due to financial crisis after 2008 Many governments and enterprises are procuring cobalt ore on a large scale Strong demand for cobalt in EV battery market leads to soaring price Gap between supply and demand will still exist in the next few years but will shrink Unless there is political instability in more regions, price may not continuously grow but will still remain at a high level in the long term Capacity of Selected Plants (2020F) GWh Historical and Forecast Price of Cobalt (2002-22F) k USD/ton 2002 2007 2012 2017 2020F 100 80 60 40 20 0 61.1 31.2 37.3 Historical price L.E.K. estimation 44.4