人工智能对（再）保险业的影响（英文版）.pdf

FOCUSMarch 2018THE IMPACT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON THE (RE)INSURANCE SECTOR32SCOR - MARCH 2018SCOR - MARCH 2018The views and statements expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors.32SCOR - MARCH 2018SCOR - MARCH 2018HOW ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WILL IMPACT THE (RE)INSURANCE INDUSTRY Denis Kessler, Chairman the development of cloud computing and distributed and parallel processing; the availability of large databases (to “train” algorithms); global connectivity of both humans and machines; and, last but not least, significant improvements in theo-retical understanding.Since the 1950s, the field of AI has evolved to cover an extensive range of concepts, including cognitive computing, natural language processing, robotics, image analytics, sensors and numerous areas of research.Machine learning, which can be defined as the science and engineering of making machines “learn”, is at the heart of AI. These processes have already become ubiquitous in daily life, from search engines to virtual assistants and robo-advisors, and leave many to wonder where this burgeoning field of research could lead.The AI revolution is a priority topic for decision makers, governments and private industries given the economic, geopolitical, social and business consequences it may have in the years to come. WHY AI IS A GAME CHANGER FOR (RE)INSURANCE The development of AI will have a threefold impact on the (re)insurance industry.RETHINKING THE BASICS OF INSURANCE Historically, the parties to an insurance contract the insurer and the insured have always had a different set of information. This is fundamental to understanding insurance economics, because asymmetry leads to strategic behaviors. The insurer will attempt to extract the maximum amount of data through questionnaires, observations and statistics, so as to infer how the insured will behave. The insured, for his or her part, may endeavor through strategic positioning to underestimate the risk, to maximize the value of the claim and to manipulate the price system to his or her advantage. As such, this information asymmetry leads directly to adverse selection and moral hazard, both of which are fundamental concepts in insurance economics.Audio/speechanalyticsImageanalyticsMachinetranslationVirtual personalassistantsDeep Q they should be invested in and adopted. This means that the first step for (re)insurers is to fight the risk-adverse culture of the industry, which has not historically been viewed as an early adopter of new technologies. “Think big, start small”: the transformation of the industry will follow an evolutionary path. Experimenting and (potentially) failing are part of the process. (Re)insurers have to therefore embrace and incorporate the digital revolution rapidly within their processes and business models. They will have to invest individually, but collective investment in tools and technologies shared by market participants will also be necessary, because connectivity is key. Standards must be set to ensure that the AI tools of the (re)insurance industry all speak a common language, which can only be driven by industry-wide projects. On this matter, SCOR is proud to be an active member of B3i, the Blockchain Insurance Industry Initiative, which lays the groundwork for platforms to develop AI tools.Insurance, like any other economic sector, is an industry in which constant innovation and adaptation are necessary to maintain a competitive position. The more (re)insurers integrate AI, the less contestable they will be.(RE)INSURANCE PROFESSIONALS WILL NEED TO LEARN TO COOPERATE AND COLLABORATE WITH AIAI will inevitably affect the way (re)insurance professionals are recruited and trained, and how they perform their duties. Tomorrow is not about men or machines: it is about men and machines working together. Technology is an enabler. To avoid the perception that AI is in direct competition with human capital, proximity between employees and AI must be established. Training should be put in place so that people understand the basics of the underlying technology and what happens inside the “black box”. Therefore a shift or, to be more precise, a complement to the skillset of those who work in the sector will be necessary. Analytical skills will need to be supplemented by software development skills, and actuarial science by data and AI science. 1110SCOR - MARCH 2018SCOR - MARCH 2018HOW AI WILL IMPACT THE (RE)INSURANCE INDUSTRYWHERE SCIENCE ENDS AND ART BEGINSThe idea that virtually all human labor will eventually be replaced by low-cost, highly efficient AI has gained traction. I do not believe in this fantasy. There are three distinctly human elements that are fundamental to value creation: Judgment: integrating soft considerations on top of technical and analytical considerations; Innovation, creativity and heuristics: imagining and designing new systems and modes of operation; Accountability: being a decision-maker capable of explaining and sharing views, while also taking responsibility for actions and their consequences.AI will not replace our usefulness; on the contrary, it will enable us to focus our thinking and efforts on value-added tasks.We should never forget that risk management, which lies at the heart of our industry, is both a science and an art. Reinsurance is firstly based on science the understanding and modeling of risk. But while analytical considerations are highly important, they only account for one part of the equation. The scientific aspect of our profession must always be complemented by an artistic or artisanal approach. Relationships that foster trust on both sides of the transaction take time to develop, and the experienced underwriters ability to follow his instincts has not been as of yet put into an equation.The combination of theoretical and analytical considerations on the one hand, and empirical and instinctive considerations on the other, make reinsurance one of the most fascinating industries. It is no coincidence that SCORs tagline is “The Art and Science of Risk.” You need both, because alchemy is as important as chemistry. From that perspective, I am convinced that the human touch that resides in our business is irreplaceable by AI.Denis Kessler Chairman & CEO, SCOR