2019年全球财富报告.pdf

Color gradient or Image placeholder October 2019Research Institute Global wealth report 2019 Thought leadership from Credit Suisse and the worlds foremost experts2 Editorial Ten years ago, the Credit Suisse Research Institute launched the first Global wealth report providing the most comprehensive and up-to- date survey of household wealth. Since then the Global wealth report has become the standard reference point to monitor wealth growth across countries and the extent to which wealth inequalities are widening or narrowing. For the past decade, global wealth creation has centered around China and the United States. This year, the United States extended its un- broken spell of wealth gains, which began after the global financial crisis in 2008. The United States also accounts for 40% of dollar million- aires worldwide and for 40% of those in the top 1% of global wealth distribution. Wealth in China started the century from a lower base, but grew at a much faster pace during the early years. It was one of the few countries to avoid the impact of the global financial crisis. Chinas progress has enabled it to replace Europe as the principal source of global wealth growth and to replace Japan as the country with the second-largest number of millionaires. More tellingly, China overtook the United States this year to become the country with most people in the top 10% of global wealth distribution. The rest of the world has not stood still. Other emerging markets India in particular have made a steady contribution, which we expect to continue over the next five years. However, overall worldwide growth was modest in the 12 months up to mid-2019. Aggregate global wealth rose by USD 9.1 trillion to USD 360.6 trillion, representing a growth rate of 2.6%. Wealth per adult grew by just 1.2% to USD 70,850 per adult in mid-2019. The number of new millionaires was also relatively modest, up 1.1 million to 46.8 million. The United States added 675,000 new- comers, more than half of the global total. Japan and China each contributed more than 150,000, but Australia lost 124,000 millionaires following a fall in average wealth. To mark its tenth anniversary, this years report examines in more detail the underlying factors for the evolution of wealth levels and wealth dis- tribution. The growth records of countries can be quite different depending on whether wealth is measured in US dollars or domestic currencies, or in nominal or inflation-adjusted units. In the longer term, the most successful countries are those that succeed in raising wealth as a multiple of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by addressing institutional and financial-sector deficiencies. This can result in a virtuous cycle in which higher wealth stimulates GDP growth, which in turn raises aggregate wealth. China, India and Vietnam provide examples of this virtuous cycle in action. Second, the report looks at the evolution of wealth inequality. The bottom half of wealth holders collectively accounted for less than 1% of total global wealth in mid-2019, while the richest 10% own 82% of global wealth and the top 1% alone own 45%. Global inequality fell during the first part of this century when a narrowing of gaps between countries was rein- forced by declining inequality within countries. While advances by emerging markets contin- ued to narrow the gaps between countries, inequality within countries grew as economies recovered after the global financial crisis. As a result, the top 1% of wealth holders increased their share of world wealth. This trend appears to have abated in 2016 and global inequality is now likely to edge downward in the immediate future. Given some of this years intriguing findings, we hope you will find the Global wealth report 2019 a valuable source of information and wish you interesting reading. Urs Rohner Chairman of the Board of Directors Credit Suisse Group AGGlobal wealth report 2019 3 02 Editorial 05 Global wealth 2019: The year in review 17 The evolution of wealth levels 25 The evolution of wealth distribution37 Wealth outlook 43 Wealth of nations44 United States Growth amid worries45 China Stalled growth 46 India Still growing47 Russia Changing fortunes48 Germany Holding pattern 49 United Kingdom On the brink?50 Switzerland View from the top51 Singapore Renewed growth52 Japan Keeping calm53 South Korea Carrying on54 Indonesia Renewed growth55 South Africa Little movement56 Brazil South American giant 57 Chile Latin American wealth leader58 Canada Paused growth59 Australia Still resilient60 About the authors61 General disclaimer / important information For more information, contact: Richard Kersley Head Global Thematic Research, Global Markets Credit Suisse International richard.kersleycredit-suisse Nannette Hechler-Faydherbe Chief Investment Officer International Wealth Management and Global Head of Economics & Research Credit Suisse AG nannette.hechler-faydherbecredit-suisse Credit Suisse Research Institute research.institutecredit-suisse credit-suisse/researchinstitute Cover photo: GettyImages, Achim Thomae4Global wealth report 2019 5 Global wealth 2019: The year in review Anthony Shorrocks, James Davies and Rodrigo Lluberas Now in its tenth edition, the Credit Suisse Global wealth report is the most comprehensive and up-to-date source of information on global household wealth. Global wealth grew during the past year, but at a very modest pace. Although wealth per adult reached a new record high of USD 70,850, this is only 1.2% above the level of mid-2018, before allowing for inflation. While more than half of all adults worldwide have a net worth below USD 10,000, nearly 1% of adults are millionaires who collectively own 44% of global wealth. However, the trend toward increasing inequality has eased, and the share of the top 1% of wealth holders is below the recent peak in 2016. Prospects for global wealth growth The wealth growth spurt in 2017 evoked mem- ories of the “golden age” for wealth during the early years of the century, when annual growth averaged 10%. However, it was not sustained (Figure 1). Total global wealth reached USD 351.5 trillion at end-2017, but then dipped to USD 345.4 trillion at end-2018 before recovering to USD 360.6 trillion in mid-2019. The 2.6% increase in total global wealth since end-2017 is reduced to 0.6% for global wealth per adult, which rose from USD 70,460 to USD 70,850 over the same period. But this low growth is partly attributable to US dollar appreciation: using 5-year average exchange rates, total wealth has grown by 5.9% since end-2017, and wealth per adult by 3.8%. Based on the evidence since the financial crisis, secular global wealth growth appears to be closely aligned with global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Asset price inflation and/or USD depreciation can temporarily flatter the wealth growth figures, but cannot alter the longer-term trends. From this perspective, the golden age at the start of the century was prob- ably due to a favorable combination of factors, Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Global wealth databook 2019 Figure 1: Annual contribution (%) to growth of wealth per adult by component, 200019 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19Financial wealth Non-financial wealth Debt Net worth6 Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Global wealth databook 2019 Total wealth Change in total wealth Wealth per adult Change in wealth per adult Change in financial assets Change in non- financial assets Change in debts 2019 2018-19 2018-19 2019 2018-19 2018-19 2018-19 2018-19 2018-19 2018-19 2018-19 USD bn USD bn % USD % USD bn % USD bn % USD bn % Africa 4,119 130 3.3 6,488 0.4 1 0.1 164 6.6 35 7.7 Asia-Pacific 64,778 825 1.3 54,211 -0.3 539 1.5 672 1.9 386 4.2 China 63,827 1,889 3.1 58,544 2.6 88 0.2 2,273 7.5 471 10.9 Europe 90,752 1,093 1.2 153,973 1.2 127 0.3 1,156 2.0 190 1.4 India 12,614 625 5.2 14,569 3.3 37 1.4 708 6.9 120 11.5 Latin America 9,906 463 4.9 22,502 3.2 193 4.0 340 5.7 70 5.0 North America 114,607 4,061 3.7 417,694 2.7 3,334 3.6 1,353 3.8 626 3.8 World 360,603 9,087 2.6 70,849 1.2 4,319 2.0 6,666 3.7 1,898 4.0 Table 1: Change in household wealth 201819 by region most especially the rapid transformation of China from an emerging nation in transition to a fully fledged market economy. There is no reason to expect that comparable conditions will occur in the near future. Indeed, as interest rates recover, lower house-price rises and lower equity-price inflation will likely depress wealth growth in many countries. An overview of the past year More details of wealth growth during the 12 months to mid-2019 are provided in Table 1. Aggregate global wealth rose by USD 9.1 trillion to USD 360.6 trillion, representing a growth rate of 2.6%. This is an improvement on the decline experienced during 201415, but below the average growth recorded since the financial crisis in 2008. Nevertheless, it exceeded population growth, so that average wealth grew by 1.2% to USD 70,850 per adult, an all-time high yet again. Financial assets suffered most during the financial crisis, and recovered better in the early post-crisis years. This year, their value rose in every region, contributing 39% of the increase in gross wealth worldwide, and 71% of the rise in North America. However, non-financial assets have provided the main stimulus to overall growth in recent years. Over the 12 months to mid-2019, they grew faster than financial assets in every region. Non-financial wealth accounted for the bulk of new wealth in China, Europe and Latin America, and almost all new wealth in Africa and India. Household debt rose even faster, at 4.0% overall. Our estimates indicate that household debt increased in all regions, and at a double-digit rate in China and India. Total wealth rose in all regions last year. North America added USD 4.1 trillion to its stock of household wealth, of which USD 3.9 tril- lion came from the United States. China and Europe contributed another USD 3.0 trillion, and Asia-Pacific (excluding China and India) a further USD 825 billion. Despite the economic troubles in Argentina and Venezuela, wealth in Latin America rose by USD 463 billion, with Brazil accounting for USD 312 billion. In percentage terms, India (5.2%) and Latin America (4.9%) grew at the fastest rate, with Africa, China and North America recording gains of 3%4%. US dollar appreciation is one reason for these relatively modest increases. Using smoothed exchange rates, total global wealth rose by USD 11.8 trillion, rather than USD 9.1 trillion. New wealth in China is assessed as USD 3.5 trillion instead of USD 1.9 trillion, and the gain in Europe becomes USD 2.7 trillion rather than USD 1.1 trillion. However, smoothed exchange rates result in a net loss in other regions. Global wealth report 2019 7 Winners and losers among countries Comparing total wealth gains and losses across the most important countries, the United States (USD 3.8 trillion) again leads the way by a considerable margin, continuing an astonishing spell that has seen wealth per adult increase each year since 2008 (however, even the United States is not immune to temporary blips: wealth per adult fell by 2% during the latter half of 2018, then recovered during the first half of 2019). China (USD 1.9 trillion) is in second place Figure 2: Change in wealth per adult 201819, biggest gains and losses Source Figures 2 and 3: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Global wealth databook 2019 Figure 3: Change in market capitalization, house prices and USD exchange rate (%), 201819 Switzerland United States Japan Netherlands New Zealand Singapore Israel Canada Spain Belgium Turkey Norway Australia -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 USD -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Russia United Kingdom United States House prices Market capitalization USD exchange rate again, followed by Japan (USD 930 billion), India (USD 625 billion), and Brazil (USD 312 billion). The main losses occurred in Australia (down USD 443 billion), Turkey (down USD 257 billion) and Pakistan (down USD 141 billion). Viewed in terms of wealth per adult, Switzerland tops the winners (up USD 17,790) followed by the United States (USD 11,980), Japan (USD 9,180) and the Netherlands (USD 9,160): see Figure 2. The main loser was Australia (down USD 28,670), with other significant losses in Norway (down USD 7,520), Turkey (down USD 5,230) and Belgium (down USD 4,330). Non-financial assets have provided the main stimulus to overall growth in recent years Asset prices and exchange rates Much of the year-on-year variation in wealth levels is due to changes in asset prices and exchange rates. Exchange-rate fluctuations are frequently the source of the biggest gains and losses. However, exchange rates have been relatively stable over the past 12 months. Among the countries reported in Figure 3 (G7 coun- tries plus China, India and Russia), the largest changes affected China and the United Kingdom both depreciating about 3.5% versus the US dollar. Currency falls were modest elsewhere in the world, except for Turkey (21%), Pakistan (24%) and Argentina (32%). Currency appre- ciation was even rarer, with Thailand (+8%) and Egypt (+7%) recording the biggest gains. Equity prices showed greater regional fluc- tuations. Market capitalization rose in North America, but declined in much of Europe by an average of about 10%. Markets rose significantly in Russia (+15%), and by an even greater extent in Kuwait (+25%), Brazil (+35%) and Romania (+36%). In Pakistan, market capitalization dropped by 42%, compounding the impact of exchange rate losses.8 Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Global wealth databook 2019 Figure 4: World wealth map 2019 Wealth levels (USD) Below USD 5,000 USD 5,000 to 25,000 USD 25,000 to 100,000 Over USD 100,000 No data House-price movements are a proxy for changes in household non-financial assets, and have been relatively subdued in recent years. House price declines did not happen in the ten countries listed in Figure 3, and were also rare elsewhere in the world, Australia (6%) being the only recorded instance of a drop of more than 2%. India (+6%) and China (+9%) were among the nations experiencing a robust housing market, joined at the top by Colombia, Portugal, Hungary and the Philippines in the 10%13% range, and Argentina, where house prices rose 45% in domestic currency (but only 11% in USD). Wealth per adult across countries The world wealth map (Figure