2018年风险调查报告.pdf

Risks that MatterMain Findings from the 2018 OECD Risks that Matter Survey 3ContentsEditorial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Reconnecting policy and people . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Introduction and overview . . . . . . . . . . 71 . Risks, worries and concerns . . . . . . 11Many people worry about falling ill, struggling to make ends meet and getting by in old age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Worries vary across social groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 . Satisfaction and fairness . . . . . . . . . 21Too many people feel social protection is not working for them . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22There is a widespread sense of injustice in social benefit receipt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Satisfaction and perceptions of fairness differ across social and economic groups . . . . 28People are generally more satisfied in countries with generous social policies . . . . . . . . 303 . Wants, needs and preferences . . . . . 37Most people want the government to provide more in the way of social policy and a fair number are willing to pay for it . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Economic conditions affect policy preferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43List of tables available online . . . . . . . 48References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 504 Risks that Matter OECD 2019EditorialReconnecting people with policySocial policy is crucial for achieving inclusive economic growth that benefits everyone . Globalisation, digitalisation, and demographic and climate change are transforming the way economies and societies work . These transformations provide new opportunities for growth, but they also raise the risk of deepening inequalities . Against this backdrop, the OECD has launched a new cross-national survey called Risks That Matter . The survey aims to put the principle of “listening to people” into practice, in order to better understand peoples worries and concerns, to capture their views on current social policies, and to learn what they expect from social policy in the future . The survey asked over 22 000 people in 21 OECD countries in 2018 about their social and economic risks and how well they think their government tackles these risks . A clear sense of dissatisfaction and injusticeMany of the findings from Risks That Matter are deeply worrying . OECD countries are among the wealthiest in the world . They spend, on average, more than 20% of GDP on social policies, or the equivalent of roughly USD 8 000 per person per year . The evidence shows that these policies often work on average, people are living safer, healthier, and longer lives, and are better educated than ever before . Yet, the Risks That Matter survey reveals that many people do not see it that way . There is clear dissatisfaction with existing social policy . Across the surveyed countries, many respondents believe public services and benefits are inadequate and hard to reach . Only a minority are satisfied with access to services like health care, housing, and long-term care, and the majority believe that the government would not be able to provide a proper safety net should they lose their income due to job loss, illness or old age . Particularly worrying is that more than half of the respondents think they would not be able to easily access public benefits if they needed them . This is a wake-up call for policy makers . Public perceptions of fairness should also raise concerns . More than half of respondents say they do not receive their fair share of benefits given the taxes they pay, and two-thirds believe many others get more than they deserve . Making matters worse, people feel they have little influence over policies: about 60% say that the government does not incorporate the views of people like them when designing social policy . These beliefs are not limited just to those deemed “left behind”, i .e . those who have not been able to benefit from economic growth and have been trapped at the lower rungs of the income ladder . Young people, those with high levels of education, and those with high incomes all express strong feelings of unfairness and injustice too .Governments need to do better at restoring trust and confidence in social protection systems .Women and older people are unhappier than othersResults from the survey show that, overall, women tend to be less satisfied with social policy than men . This may reflect the fact that women often face a higher poverty risk than men and that women are more often single parents with primary responsibility for children . Older people also tend to express stronger feelings of dissatisfaction and disillusionment than younger age groups, even though young people are facing greater Risks that Matter OECD 2019 5Editorialuncertainty now in most countries . Income itself does not seem to play much of a role for satisfaction; in many cases, low-income respondents are just as satisfied with social policy as those on high incomes . However, feelings of dissatisfaction are particularly strong among people who believe their economic situation has deteriorated in recent months . One of the key objectives of social policy is sheltering people from the negative impact of income shocks, but the survey shows that many of those suffering from an income decline do not believe social policy is meeting this objective .Social spending matters for peoples satisfaction . Respondents in countries that provide more generous social policies are often among the most satisfied . By contrast, respondents in less prosperous, more unequal countries that spend less on social policies are usually among the least satisfied . However, some degree of caution is needed when interpreting these cross-country differences, since a number of other factors (including cultural norms and the political setting) can also shape attitudes and expectations towards government and social policies . People want more support from governmentOverall, people are calling for more help from government . In all but two countries, Denmark and France, more than half of respondents say they want government to do more for their economic and social security . This is especially the case for older respondents and those with low incomes . But, perhaps surprisingly, about two-thirds of those with high incomes also want more public support . For many, health care and pensions are the priorities . On average, about half of respondents choose better health care or improved pensions as one of their top-three priorities, and almost 40% would be willing to pay an extra 2% of their income in taxes in return . But there are differences across groups . Young people are most likely to prioritise better housing supports, for instance, and parents more likely than others to favour better education services . Those in less prosperous countries often just want more help finding a job .Future-proofing social policy The Risks That Matter survey should serve as a call to action . The results of the survey shed new light on how people feel about social risks and social policy, as the survey complements and adds to information from traditional hard data sources, like household and labour force surveys . While data on perceptions like these may of course be influenced by many factors, including cultural values and general economic and social conditions, these results remain important for informing policy, offering insights on individual economic, social and political choices . This OECD survey shows that listening to people matters . Implementation matters . Policies cannot reach their full potential if people feel they cannot fully access benefits and services when needed . Better efforts are needed to understand what drives these perceptions, to map where and why people feel they are struggling, and to listen to their suggestions in the formulation and evaluation of benefits and services . This will contribute to making social protection more effective and efficient, restoring trust and confidence in government and policies, and promoting equality of opportunity .Stefano ScarpettaDirector of Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD7Around the world, there is growing concern about how well public services and benefits address peoples concerns and expectations, and whether governments deliver what matters most to citizens . At the same time, all countries are in the process of modernising and adapting their social protection systems in the face of global mega-trends such as population ageing, rising inequalities and the changing nature of work . Governments and policy makers are being asked to adapt to major changes and reform their social protection systems for the future . It is in this challenging economic and political climate that the OECD has carried out the first Risks That Matter survey, which looks at peoples perceptions of social and economic risks and their public policy preferences . Nationally-representative surveys were conducted in 21 countries around the world in spring and autumn of 2018, capturing the cultural, geographic, and economic diversity of the OECD . The survey provides valuable insights into peoples short- and long-term concerns as well as their opinions on how well government social policies are responding to their needs and expectations .Falling ill and making ends meet are the biggest short-term concernsThis report outlines key results from the 2018 Risks That Matter survey . It starts by asking which social and economic risks people fear most and where they feel most vulnerable . Results reveal that, in the short-term (over the next year or two), falling ill and not being able to make ends meet are at the top of the list . Not surprisingly, concerns around illness and disability increase with age and are greatest among older respondents . Making ends meet is a particular worry for those with low incomes and people in countries that were hit hard by the financial crisis . When thinking about the longer term (beyond the next decade), most people list financial security in old age as one of their top concerns . Understandably, this is most frequent among older respondents, but many younger people also pick this as a top concern . The survey also picks up feelings of uncertainty about the future . Parents are frequently concerned about their children reaching levels of status and comfort similar to their own, while younger respondents often worry about their own futures .Many people are dissatisfied and disillusioned with social policySection 2 of the report explores satisfaction with current social policies . Overall, results point towards widespread dissatisfaction . Across countries, large numbers of respondents believe that public benefits and services are hard Introduction and overview8 Risks that Matter OECD 2019Introduction and overviewto reach and many lack confidence in the governments ability to provide adequate support should they lose their income . Many respondents also express strong feelings of injustice in benefit receipt . They believe they are not receiving the benefits they should get relative to the taxes they pay, and that many others are picking up more than they deserve .There are differences, of course, across both groups and countries . Women tend to be less satisfied than men, older people less satisfied than the young, and those self-reporting as working class less satisfied than those reporting as middle class or above . Income level itself does not play too much of a role, but respondents who say their economic situation has worsened over the past year are more likely than others to express dissatisfaction with what they currently receive . Satisfaction also appears higher in countries that provide more generous social policies and that have stronger and more equal economies, though some caution is needed when interpreting these findings as other factors, including the political setting, also likely play a role .People want more from government, with health care and pensions the prioritiesThe final section concentrates on peoples preferences, asking what they want from social policy and in which areas they would like increased support . Unsurprisingly, given low levels of satisfaction, most people say they want more support . Better public health care and pensions are the top priorities, reflecting their rankings as top concerns . Almost 40% of respondents, on average, say they would be willing to pay more in taxes for access to improved public health services and better pensions . In some countries (Chile, Greece, Ireland and Portugal in the case of health care, and Chile, Israel and Lithuania for pensions) this share rises to around one-half . Policy priorities differ across groups . As might be expected, parents are much more likely than others to favour improvements in education services, and younger respondents are more likely to prioritise affordable housing . Older respondents overwhelmingly support improvements to public pensions, health care, and long-term care services .Looking across countries, respondents in countries with lower GDP per capita are more likely than others to prioritise labour market supports, such as improved job-search services and help with funds to start a business, while those in highly unequal countries are especially likely to pick out better education services . Respondents in richer countries are more likely to prioritise affordable housing supports .Perceptions matterThe feelings of insecurity and dissatisfaction expressed by respondents to the Risks That Matter survey are important . Risks like unemployment, poverty and poor health carry large and well-known social and economic costs, but in addition even the prospect of events like job loss or falling into poverty can have damaging effects on society . Feelings of financial strain and insecurity, for example, have multiple harmful effects, including physical and mental health, independent of actual income level (Ferrie et al ., 20051; Georgiades et al ., 20092; Arber, Fenn and Meadows, 20143; Niedzwiedz, Pell and Mitchell, 20154; Weinstein and Stone, 20185) . Job insecurity and the risk of unemployment negatively affects the well-being even of those still in work (Luechinger, Meier and Stutzer, 20106; Helliwell and Huang, 20147; Hijzen and Menyhert, 20168) . Greater efforts are needed to understand what drives these perceptions and why so many feel like social policies are not meeting their needs . OECD governments are exploring many promising new ways of delivering social policy, such as the potential for new technologies to help identify vulnerable Risks that Matter OECD 20