2022-2023全球锂资源行业发展前景展望分析报告.pdf

2022 2022-2023全球锂资源行业发展前景展望分析报告 2 2021 8856 4.7 LCE 1 一、回 归 本源：探 究 锂 资源的特性358%26%7%3%3%3%24%22%11%10%8%6%3%3%3%2%2021 2021 47%75%USGS USGS 5 2021 6 3 2021 2200 1.2 LCE 4 33 40500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0002009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021E2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E 370340410 4109901,3001,400 1,4002,20005001,0001,5002,0002,50019951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202141%26%23%5%2%Fastmarkets Benchmark Minerals5 7 2007-2022YTD/二、锂 行 业已进 入 新 阶 段010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,0002007/12 2008/10 2009/08 2010/06 2011/04 2012/02 2012/12 2013/10 2014/08 2015/06 2016/04 2017/02 2017/12 2018/10 2019/08 2020/06 2021/04 2022/02 CIF CIF CIF CIF VAT VAT VAT VAT FMC Talison SQM TalisonAlbemarle Rockwood Wodgina Pilbara Altura ToC 2020 2022Q1 2022 The Lithium Rush The Lithium Race 6 10 2022 1-5 9.9 63%11 9 2022 1-5 21.8 43%8 2022Q1 23.4 Talison 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0002017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-04/010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-04/050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,00017Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q1Mt Cattlin Mt Marion PLS-Pilgan&Ngungaju AJM Bald Hill Wodgina Mt Holland Finniss-50%0%50%100%150%200%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,000Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22电池 级碳 酸锂（吨）工业级碳酸锂（吨）单水 氢氧 化锂（吨）中国 锂盐 产量 同 比（右轴）12 2022 13 2021 58 2022 71 2025 165 20212025 CAGR 30%2021 56 2022 78 2025 187 20212025 CAGR 35%70%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e ESSxEV()PowertoolsConsumer100kt600kt1100kt1600kt2100kt2600kt3100kt3600kt4100kt4600kt201420152016201720182019202020212022e2023e2024e2025e2026e2027e2028e2029e2030e 二、锂 行 业已进 入 新 阶 段 14 2022 71 LCE 2025 2030 165 LCE 409 LCE 8 LCE 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 170,644 163,015 214,520 306,094 385,115 425,663 438,090 562,989 778,786 1,153,601 1,530,121 1,899,977 2,170,300 2,332,768 2,396,179 2,466,473 2,540,850 yoy 14%-4%32%43%26%11%3%29%38%48%33%24%14%7%3%3%3%176,727 156,595 219,337 293,421 372,413 400,143 445,238 559,817 783,429 1,141,456 1,507,738 1,874,482 2,161,193 2,331,647 2,394,890 2,466,348 2,540,725 21,110-7,630 51,505 91,574 79,022 40,548 12,427 124,899 215,797 374,815 376,520 369,856 270,323 162,469 63,411 70,294 74,377 yoy 20%-11%40%34%27%7%11%26%40%46%32%24%15%8%3%3%3%9,150 25,341 39,597 56,000 69,000 86,500 108,500 142,000 202,000 278,000 371,000 yoy 177%56%41%23%25%25%31%42%38%33%+176,727 156,595 219,337 293,421 372,413 400,143 454,388 585,157 823,026 1,197,456 1,576,738 1,960,982 2,269,693 2,473,647 2,596,890 2,744,348 2,911,725 30,062-20,132 62,742 74,084 78,992 27,729 54,245 130,769 237,869 374,430 379,282 384,244 308,711 203,954 123,242 147,459 167,377 LCE 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030eConsumer 43,200 47,200 51,600 56,000 54,400 56,000 60,000 63,300 68,364 73,833 78,632 82,564 86,692 91,027 94,668 98,454 102,393 Powertools 476 851 1,297 1,988 2,692 3,504 4,814 5,809 7,116 8,096 8,501 8,884 9,150 9,425 9,707 9,999 10,299 xEV 7,697 18,491 31,793 44,686 75,766 90,199 110,161 229,415 347,466 498,867 718,711 1,030,381 1,317,502 1,624,289 1,993,306 2,442,528 2,942,589 E2WVs 1,757 2,486 3,439 4,385 5,792 7,893 12,420 15,401 18,685 23,634 26,132 31,660 40,629 46,687 51,832 59,289 68,162 ESS 350 420 1,400 1,700 4,200 9,030 17,585 52,439 83,222 141,390 201,291 257,777 333,674 390,849 460,732 540,517 666,830 53,481 69,448 89,528 108,759 142,850 166,627 204,980 366,364 524,853 745,819 1,033,268 1,411,266 1,787,648 2,162,277 2,610,245 3,150,787 3,790,273 45,433 50,537 56,336 62,373 62,884 67,397 77,234 84,510 94,165 105,563 113,265 123,108 136,471 147,138 156,207 167,742 180,853 4,100 4,300 4,600 4,600 4,400 4,300 4,100 4,209 4,285 4,362 4,441 4,521 4,602 4,685 4,769 4,855 4,942 23,202 27,900 28,700 29,400 30,200 31,200 28,900 30,460 30,042 30,793 31,562 32,351 33,160 33,989 34,839 35,710 36,603 20,681 22,500 23,000 22,700 27,100 26,700 21,900 27,207 29,445 30,152 30,875 31,616 32,375 33,152 33,948 34,762 35,597 13,903 13,600 14,600 14,400 14,100 14,500 14,600 14,917 14,803 14,986 15,216 15,266 15,407 15,644 15,933 16,226 16,524 9,000 7,000 7,000 7,400 7,400 7,700 7,000 8,060 8,391 8,559 8,730 8,905 9,083 9,265 9,450 9,639 9,832 8,800 8,000 8,000 8,200 8,500 8,700 8,700 8,802 9,066 9,338 9,618 9,906 10,204 10,510 10,825 11,150 11,484 8,582 6,300 6,400 6,600 6,700 6,900 6,800 6,876 6,987 7,266 7,557 7,859 8,174 8,500 8,840 9,194 9,562 4,789 4,400 4,400 4,600 4,700 4,800 3,600 4,178 4,257 4,381 4,509 4,641 4,777 4,917 5,062 5,210 5,364 传统需求 16,850 16,900 16,800 17,000 17,300 17,500 17,800 18,029 18,296 18,567 18,841 19,120 19,403 19,690 19,982 20,278 20,578 109,907 110,900 113,500 114,900 120,400 122,300 113,400 122,738 125,570 128,403 131,350 134,186 137,185 140,353 143,648 147,024 150,485 163,388 180,348 203,028 223,659 263,250 288,927 318,380 489,102 650,423 874,222 1,164,617 1,545,452 1,924,833 2,302,630 2,753,893 3,297,811 3,940,758 166,086 186,323 211,050 249,237 249,119 300,171 363,101 576,804 705,337 945,038 1,251,547 1,653,122 1,972,199 2,342,581 2,783,144 3,422,826 4,087,888 YoY 12%13%18%0%20%21%59%22%34%32%32%19%19%19%23%19%LCE,20,237 24,727 38,187-118 51,052 62,930 213,703 128,533 239,701 306,509 401,575 319,077 370,382 440,563 639,682 665,062 LCE 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e LCE 10,641-29,728 8,287 44,184 123,294 99,972 91,288 8,354 117,689 252,418 325,191 307,860 297,493 131,066-186,254-678,478-1,176,163/6.4%-16.0%3.9%17.7%49.5%33.3%25.1%1.4%16.7%26.7%26.0%18.6%15.1%5.6%-6.7%-19.8%-28.8%二、锂 行 业已进 入 新 阶 段 15 9 二、锂 行 业已进 入 新 阶 段+,+1 2 3 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 Fastmarkets Benchmark Minerals10 16/二、锂 行 业已进 入 新 阶 段010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000Jan/2015Mar/2015May/2015Jul/2015Sep/2015Nov/2015Jan/2016Mar/2016May/2016Jul/2016Sep/2016Nov/2016Jan/2017Mar/2017May/2017Jul/2017Sep/2017Nov/2017Jan/2018Mar/2018May/2018Jul/2018Sep/2018Nov/2018Jan/2019Mar/2019May/2019Jul/2019Sep/2019Nov/2019Jan/2020Mar/2020May/2020Jul/2020Sep/2020Nov/2020Jan/2021Mar/2021May/2021Jul/2021Sep/2021Nov/2021Jan/2022Mar/2022May/2022Jul/2022Sep/2022Nov/2022Jan/2023Mar/2023May/2023Jul/2023Sep/2023Nov/2023Jan/2024Mar/2024May/2024Jul/2024Sep/2024Nov/2024&/,VAT/,VAT/,VAT/,VAT CIF(/-CIF(/-CIF-CIF-3.1 2022 2023 17 三、供 给 侧：拆 分 供 给 侧113.2 2021-2022 24 LCE 2022-2023 37 LCE 18 2022 LCE 19 2025 LCE 三、供 给 侧：拆 分 供 给 侧1250607080901001101202021E 2022E 2023E60801001201401601802002022E 2025E13 22 23 2025 LCE 20 2022-2023 LCE 0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 50607080901001101201302021 2022e 2023e 21 LCE 0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002,000,0002009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023e 2025eTalison SQM Albemarle Livent 30%20%23%18%8%13%9%12%3%7%9%12%26%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2009 2021TQC/IGO/ALB-Talison SQM GFL/MRL-Mt MarionAlbemarle-Chile&US Livent PLS-Pilgangoora/NgungajuORE&GXY 3.3 2023 2022-2023 78 LCE 125 LCE 2025 182 LCE 2022-2023 44 LCE 71 LCE 2025 115 LCE 24 25 2021 1443%44%49%19%26%19%9%12%17%14%9%15%10%9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021ETalison Mt Marion PLS-Pilgangoora Mt Cattlin AJM-Pilgangoora Bald Hill0100020003000400050002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025eGreenbushes Mt Cattlin Mt MarionBald Hill PLS-Pilgan+Ngungaju AJMWodgina Mt Holland Finniss三、供 给 侧：拆 分 供 给 侧,26 2022-2025 78 LCE 182 LCE1502000004000006000008000001000000120000014000001600000180000020000002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E2009-2025 Jadar ValleyThacker PassSonora Kenticha-134#Mina da CachoeiraGrota do CiriloMibraBrazil-USGSSan JosePortugal-USGS/RoskillRubicon&Helikon ArcadiaBikitaGoulaminaManono/KitotoloSyv j rvi BlackstairsWolfsberg LithiumPiedmont LithiumKings MountainZig Zag LakeMavis LakeSeparation RapidsCaracle Creek/Georgia lakeAuthierSirmacTancoRose Tantalum-LithiumJames BayWhabouchiQuebec LithiumFinnissMt Holland-Earl GreyWodginaBald HillPilgangoora-AJMPilgangoora-PLSMT MarionMT CattlinGreenbushes3.4 TWh 2022-23 49 LCE 60 LCE 2025 104 LCE 2022-23 34 LCE 45 LCE 2025 75 LCE 27 3-5 28 Olaroz Orocobre 16050000100000150000200000250000SQMAlbemarle LiventSDLA Kachi()Allkem Eramet/POSCO 2021(LCE)2025(LCE)三、供 给 侧：拆 分 供 给 侧173.4 TWh ESG 1 2 DLE 3 30%60%4 5/三、供 给 侧：拆 分 供 给 侧 29 2022-2025 49 LCE 104 LCE 180200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E2009-2025-Comibol-CoipasaComibol-UyuniCodelco-MaricungaLPI/Bearing(Li3 Energy)-Maricunga JVLake-KachiERAMET-Centenario-RatonesAllkem-Galaxy-Lithium One-MarianaLithium X()-SDLANeo Lithium-3QArgosy-Rinc n-Rinc n Allkem-OrocobreAlbemarleliventSQM-Atacama LME4.1 BMX 30 Pilbara 31 19100%+90%+10%+四、全 球 锂供应 体 系 的 深刻变 局 已 拉 开序幕矿石 商锂盐 厂盐湖 商 PLS-BMX 矿石 商锂盐 厂盐湖 商 4.2 32/+20四、全 球 锂供应 体 系 的 深刻变 局 已 拉 开序幕 c 4.3-33 Wave International 34 21 RO MVR RO 四、全 球 锂供应 体 系 的 深刻变 局 已 拉 开序幕 battery-news.de4.4 Go Global Go Glocal”Just in Time Just in Case Just in Worst-Case 35 battery-news.de 36 22四、全 球 锂供应 体 系 的 深刻变 局 已 拉 开序幕 4.5 37 38 23智利-盐 湖系氢氧化锂产能俄罗斯-进口原料苛化生产氢氧化锂产能韩 国、日本-重要的电池级需求市场澳大利亚-矿石系氢氧化锂产能全球氢氧化锂流向（粗细表示贸易体量）美国-盐湖/矿石系氢氧化锂产能中国-矿 石系为主氢氧化锂产能印度、泰国、新加坡工业级市场欧 洲 电 池级/工业级市场区域市场的氢氧化锂自供内循环氢氧化锂代表性净出口国氢氧化锂代表性净进口国加拿大-矿石系氢氧化锂产能 B cancour 6.5-7.5 3.4 Pilgangoora Pilgan 36-38 Ngungayu 22Q3 18-20 Pilbara Calix POSCO 4.3 Whabouchi 2.5-3 25 SC6 Wodgina:75 50 Kemerton 2.5 Greenbushes 162 TRP 四、全 球 锂供应 体 系 的 深刻变 局 已 拉 开序幕 4.6 10%5368%2021 34GWh 2025 2030 67GWh 123GWh 39 2022 40 24143 337 526 749112615802173306640995482809826555425810500010000150002000025000300003500040000450002010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022.1-6 AEA Retriev Umicore CoCl2/Recupyl+BATREC/四、全 球 锂供应 体 系 的 深刻变 局 已 拉 开序幕 25五、对 产 业的建 议：攻 中寻守，聚 焦 优质资 产26 1 2 3