2018DHL全球连通性指数（英文版）.pdf

STEVEN A. ALTMAN, PANKAJ GHEMAWAT, AND PHILLIP BASTIAN DHL GLOBAL CONNECTEDNESS INDEX 2018The State of Globalization in a Fragile WorldSteven A. Altman is Senior Research Scholar and Executive Director of the Center for the Globalization of Educa-tion and Management at the New York University Stern School of Business. His research focuses on globalization and its implications for business strategy and public policy. Mr. Altman holds an MBA from the Harvard Business School, an MPA from Harvards John F. Kennedy School of Government, and a B.S. in Economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Pankaj Ghemawat is Global Professor of Manage-ment and Strategy and Director of the Center for the Globaliza-tion of Education and Manage-ment at the New York University Stern School of Business, and Pro-fessor of Strategic Management at IESE Business School. He is also the author of the book “The New Global Road Map: Enduring Strategies for Turbulent Times” (Harvard Business Review Press, 2018) and sev eral other award-winning books and articles.Phillip Bastian is Associate Research Scholar at the Center for the Globalization of Education and Management at the New York University Stern School of Business. His research focuses on international econom-ic policy, data science, economic measurement and visualization tools. Mr. Bastian holds a Master of International Affairs from Columbia University with a spe-cialization in international finance and economic policy and a B.A. in economics, German studies and international studies from Pacific University of Oregon.DHL GLOBAL CONNECTEDNESS INDEX 2018The State of Globalization in a Fragile WorldSteven A. Altman NYU Stern School of BusinessPankaj Ghemawat IESE Business School NYU Stern School of BusinessPhillip Bastian NYU Stern School of BusinessDear Reader, Globalization has profoundly changed the way we live and will continue to do so. Todays world is intercon-nected like never before. For individuals, this can mean greater cultural diversity, more choice, and more oppor-tunity to learn and develop. For businesses, globalization is opening new markets and opportunities. And for many countries, the move to integrate into cross-border flows is translating into faster development and innovation. As the leading global logistics company, Deutsche Post DHL Group is proud to help power this unique engine of progress. On a daily basis, our 520,000 employees help connect millions of people and business around the world, and make a very real contribution to realizing the potential of global exchange.At the same time, recent political developments serve as a powerful reminder that we cannot take for granted the international openness that we have enjoyed for some time now. In many countries, we have seen growing resistance to the free movement of goods, capital and people. Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and the growing threat of climate change, this backlash against open borders only adds to the sense of living in a fragile world.Still, there are good reasons to look to the future with confidence, and this edition of the DHL Global Connectedness Index (GCI) outlines a number of these reasons. While many expected globalization to take a severe hit after the Brexit referendum and the recent wave of US protectionism, the new GCI report shows that the opposite has happened. In fact, globalization has gained momentum and advanced to record levels. In 2017, flows of goods, capital, information and people all intensified signifi-cantly for the first time since 2007. And recent data suggests that this growth continued through 2018, though at a more moderate pace. This edition of the GCI paints a rich picture of the state of globalization, with insight into both the extent and limits of globalization today. It shows, for example, that the world is indeed more interconnected than ever before, but also less globalized than many people assume. In this way, it serves as a fact-based rebuttal to those who claim that globalization is reversing and those who believe we already live in a hyper-globalized, “flat” world. Globalization may be under pressure, but the knowl-edge flows driving todays global economy and techno-logical advances are, in my opinion, too strong to be stopped. We can be thankful for this! Because stronger international ties and the spread of innovation are still the keys to a better future for our planet. Indeed, I believe that becoming more connected is the only way to move from a fragile world to a world of solid, shared and sustainable progress. I hope you, too, find this report to be a source of insight and optimism.Yours sincerely, Frank Appel CEO, Deutsche Post DHL Group2 PrefaceDear Reader, Globalization has risen to the top of the political agenda in many parts of the world. All too often, though, debates about connecting across borders have left us more divided within countries. Policy uncertainty and volatility have followed rather than broad support for constructive paths forward. One reason is that both supporters and critics of globalization tend to believe the world is more globalized than it really is. The DHL Global Connectedness Index can help strengthen the globalization debate by grounding it in simple measures of actual flows between countries. This report tracks 12 types of cross-border trade, capital, information, and people flows from 2001 through 2017. It measures globalization worldwide, by region, and for 169 countries and territories that comprise 99% of the worlds GDP and 97% of its population. Despite predictions that globalization might collapse under a wave of economic nationalism, the DHL Global Connectedness Index rose to a record high in 2017. However, developments ranging from escalating trade conflicts to crackdowns on foreign investment and immigration raise doubts about the sustainability of recent increases in international flows. Deeper global connectedness is associated with faster economic growth, but concerns about how the benefits and costs are shared put the gains at risk. Policy threats to globalization have already prompted downgrades to global growth forecasts. The DHL Global Connectedness Index builds upon more than two decades of globalization research led by Pankaj Ghemawat. I am grateful to Pankaj for his collaboration on this project since we developed the first edition of this report in 2011. Pankajs 2018 book, The New Global Road Map: Enduring Strategies for Turbulent Times (Harvard Business Review Press) leverages insights from the DHL Global Connectedness Index to guide business decisions about how to compete, where to compete, how to organize, and how to engage better with governments and societies. My sincere thanks also to Phillip Bastian, whose involvement in the DHL Global Connectedness Index since 2016 has significantly strengthened it and who has co-authored this years report. Thanks also to Jonathan Wyss for excellent cartography and to Dirk Hrdina for turning our text and graphics into a compelling visual product.I would also like to express my deep gratitude to Deutsche Post DHL for entrusting my co-authors and myself with this project and supporting it over the years. I am especially grateful to Jill Meiburg and Johannes Oppolzer who have championed this research and facilitated its dissemination to the widest possible audience. Finally, I would like to thank New York Universitys Stern School of Business for providing an excellent home as well as generous support for our research.Steven A. Altman Senior Research Scholar New York University Stern School of Business3DHL Global Connectedness Index 2018TEN KEY TAKE-AWAYSThe worlds level of connectedness reached a new record high in 2017. For the first time since 2007, the shares of trade, capital, information, and people flows crossing national borders all increased significantly. 12The Netherlands is the worlds most globally connected country. Singapore leads on the size of its international flows relative to domestic activity, while the United Kingdom has the most global distribution of flows around the world.3Europe is the worlds most globally connected region, with 8 of the 10 most connected countries. Europe leads on trade and people flows, while North America is the top region for information and capital flows. 4The economies where international flows exceed expectations the most are Cambodia, Malaysia, Mozambique, Singapore, and Viet Nam. Regional supply chains boost the performance of Southeast Asian nations. 5Emerging economies have much lower average levels of connectedness than advanced economies. The largest gap is found in information flows, into which advanced economies are 9 times as deeply integrated.4 Ten Key Take-aways7Global connectedness is still constrained by distance and cross-country differences. Roughly half of all international flows are between countries and their top three origins and destinations. 6Most people believe the world is more globalized than it really is, and such misperceptions exacerbate fears of globalization. In fact, the vast majority of flows that could take place either within or between countries are domestic rather than international. 8Countries that integrate more deeply into international flows tend to enjoy faster economic growth, and even the top-ranked countries have untapped opportunities to strengthen their global connectedness.9The policy environment for globalization darkened in 2018 as trade conflicts escalated and countries raised barriers to foreign takeovers, immigration, and other flows. However, supporters of open markets fought back with a wave of landmark trade agreements. 10The future of globalization depends on the choices of policymakers around the world. Because global connectedness remains limited, countries have more flexibility than many presume to shape their international flows and influence the distribution of their benefits.5DHL Global Connectedness Index 2018PART IPreface Frank Appel 2Preface Steven A. Altman 3Ten Key Take-aways 4Executive Summary 8Chapter 1: How Globalized Is the World? 10Chapter 1 measures the depth and breadth of globalization based on the most recent available data and tracks how global connectedness has evolved since 2001. It also highlights common misperceptions about levels of globalization and the benefits of correcting them for both business and public policy. Additionally, this chapter discusses policy trends affecting trade, capital, information, and people flows and their implications for global connectedness moving forward.Chapter 2: How Globalized Are Individual Countries and Regions? 34Chapter 2 describes the country-level results of the 2018 DHL Global Connectedness Index, including country rankings and discussion of interesting patterns. The countries where connectedness increased or decreased the most over the past two years are highlighted, and countries actual scores are compared with predicted scores based on their structural conditions such as sizes and levels of economic development. The results are also aggregated up to the regional level, and differences among regions are discussed. This chapter concludes with recommendations on how to use the DHL Global Connectedness Index in business and public policy decision-making.10 34CONTENTS6 Table of ContentsChapter 3: DHL Global Connectedness Index Methodology 62Chapter 3 explains how the DHL Global Connectedness Index was constructed and what aspects of connectedness it covers. It also summarizes the rationales for key methodological decisions and highlights distinctive features of this index in comparison to other established globalization indexes. Methodological changes introduced in this edition of the index are highlighted. Distinctive Features of the DHL Global Connectedness Index 75PART II Country Profiles 80Part II provides a set of country profiles that include detailed data on each countrys connectedness pattern, track country-level connectedness trends, and display custom rooted maps based on countries international flows. Data on countries structural and policy drivers of connectedness are also displayed at the bottom of each profile.APPENDIXAppendix A: Historical and Pillar Level Scores and Ranks 255Reference tables covering 2001 2017 scores and ranks and pillar level connectedness charts.Appendix B: Data Sources, Regression Results, Region Classifications 284A complete list of data sources along with selected regression results, technical notes, and a list of countries classified into regions.62 80 2557DHL Global Connectedness Index 2018EXECUTIVESUMMARYThis report presents the first comprehensive assessment of how globalizationmeasured based on trade, capi-tal, information, and people flowshas developed since the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom and the election of President Donald Trump in the United States. Contrary to predictions that globalization would col-lapse in response to a wave of economic nationalism, the DHL Global Connectedness Index rose to a record high in 2017. For the first time since 2007, trade, capital, information, and people flows all intensified signifi-cantly. Strong economic growth boosted international flows while key policy changes such as US tariff increases had not yet been implemented. Public policy threats to globalization, however, have become more acute in 2018. Tit-for-tat tariff escalation raised the specter of trade wars, and countries enacted policies aimed at curbing foreign corporate takeovers, cutting immigration, and restricting international data transfers. While we do not have sufficient data yet to report an overall level of global connectedness for 2018, available measures suggest these developments have weighed on the growth of international flows. As debates about the merits of international openness continue, sound public policy and business decisions depend on accurate measures of globalization. This edi-tion of the DHL Global Connectedness Index measures globalization at the world level, by region, and across 169 countries. It reflects data from 2017 or the most recent year available and provides historical coverage back to 2001. The index uses more than 3 million data points to track both the depth of countries interna-tional flows relative to their domestic activity and the breadth of those flows across origin and destination countries. At the global level, this report shows that the world is actually far less globalized than most people believe, even after globalizations recent gains. The large major-ity of flows that could take place either within or between countries are still domestic rather than interna-tional. For example, just about 20%1of economic output around the world is exported, foreign direct investment flows equal 7% of global gross fixed capital formation, roughly 7% of phone call minutes (including calls over the internet) are internationa