20240626_招商证券_电动两轮车行业深度报告：政策引导内销格局优化东南亚打开长期成长空间_31页.pdf

|2024 06 26/+1 2 3+ASP+%311 6.1 1572.2 2.2 1354.9 2.1%1m 6m 12m-11.9-11.7-17.9-7.9-15.0-7.4 1 603529 23 2024-04-17 2 01585 23 2024-03-20 3 23 2023-01-08 S1090517080006-30-20-10010Jun/23 Oct/23 Feb/24 May/24(%)轻工纺服 沪深300 2 0YDWyRsPtQpOqOtQtOtMmN6MbP6MnPqQmOqMeRpPrPeRmOqP9PrRuMNZnRsNvPqNqM 3.7 1.7 1.7 2 2018.8 2.10 1.10 2 C.11 3 B.11 4 B.12 3.13 1.13 2.14.17 1.17 2.18 1.18 2“”.19 3.21 1.21 2.22 4.23 5.24.25 1.25 1.25 2.26 3.26 4.27 2.28 1.28 4 2.29.29 1.29 2.30 1.7 2.8 3 2018.8 4.9 5.9 6 2%.9 7 0-4km 54%0-6km 65%.10 8 TOP10 2022.10 9 2022.10 10.11 11.11 12.12 13 2021.12 14.12 15.13 16.13 17.13 18.13 19.14 20.14 21 2024.15 22 2020.15 23 2021.15 24 6.16 25.16 ob/SN+YHzHY4gCigqy5MmJDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD4V2TUSCIiqDkE2e2nC7Ui1 5 26.17 27 2023.17 28 2022.17 29 2023.17 30 2024Q1.18 31 2023.18 32 2000-2020.19 33 2009-2022.19 34 GDP.20 35 2001.20 36.21 37.21 38 2001.23 39.24 40 125cc.24 41.24 42.25 43 2020.25 44.26 45 2023.26 46 2023/.26 47 2023.27 48 S9 1.27 49.28 50.28 51 Q A.28 52.29 53 2023-2025.29 1.18 2.19 3.21 6 4 110/125cc.22 5.22 7 1 1 1 0-10km 2 1 2000 2004 2 2019 1 Wind 2013 2004 10 2013 2018 010203040506070809010001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000燃油摩托车产量（万辆）电动两轮车产量（万辆）城镇化率（%，右）城市公共交通客运总数（十亿人 次，右）8 2 2 2018 2018 1 2 3 3C/2020 2021 3 2018 1 2013 2000 2019 110 2 2023 2023 5500 GB/T0 24158-2018 GB/T0 24158-2018 GBO 17761-2018 50-100 50-70 30-50 50km/h 50 km/h 25 km/h 4KW 400W-4KW 400W 55kg 55kg 55 kg 48 V 12 9 700 8 2023 CR10 85%2022 80%4 1 2024 5 100 10 2%2 2024 11 1.5 5min(950 C)5 6 2%Wind 75%63%58%58%47%35%40%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 70%70%100 10/2%3.43%2.80%2.68%3.73%0%1%2%3%4%10 2 1 6km 65%7 0-4km 54%0-6km 65%8 TOP10 2022 26-45 60%67%9 2022 0%10%20%30%40%20-25km15-20km8-10km6-8km25km10-15km4-6km2-4km2km47.6%47.1%44.1%39.7%38.7%33.3%30.8%29.2%28.9%26.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%17.5%52.4%26.9%3.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 50.9%49.1%23.2%34.3%19.3%14.1%7.6%1.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%11 2 C 2024 2024 3 2018 19%4 12 14 10 11 3 B 1 2018 2021 10 49%2024 5 2 2021 93.6 2019-2021 CAGR 77%2025 200 80%5km 3/10 25%21%20%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2021 2022 2023 1.41.82.129%17%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.00.51.01.52.02.52021 2022 2023 yoy 12 2/20 12 13 2021 4 B 2023 3410 2018-2023CAGR 23.9%2023-2028 CAGR 18.9%2022 2022 624 2021 114 14 154810025038249555063380001002003004005006007008009009.3%10.6%12.0%13.6%13.7%16.2%22.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%1168164117842319273734104177501059176937810268%40%9%30%18%25%23%20%18%17%17%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%01000200030004000500060007000800090002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e 2025e 2026e 20027e 2028e()yoy 13 3 1 2013 2013-2018 2019-2023 15 16 EVTank Wind 17 18 150011004008001200160020002010 2021铅酸电池企业数量（家）20007006004001103695325732153113360905001000150020002500300035004000050010001500200025002013 2015 2016 2017 2019 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050010001500200025002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-CR20%10%20%30%40%50%60%0100020003000400050002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-CR2 14 2 1 5 2 1 2023 75%2“1+N”1 N 19 20 46%29%16%9%0%10%20%30%40%50%2022 2021438 495 359 428 173 191 247/275 247 15 1 2 10 3 2024 TOP4 21 2024 2019 CR3 42%2022 60%2023 CR10 85%19 2021 2024 2017 2020 2023 22 2020 23 2021 Wind Wind 0510152025爱玛科技 新日股份雅迪控股 绿源集团毛利率（%）0246810爱玛科技 新日股份雅迪控股 绿源集团净利率（%）16 2024 6 TOP3 2025 24 6 25 2024 25 17 1 26 27 2023 THE FUTURE OF INFRASTRUCTURE Wind 28 2022 29 2023 Statista Statista ASEANstats 2023 2.5 0.4 Motorcycle data 2024Q1 24%49%/20%/15%391338154147136101050100150200250300350400450/k 1.7%4.5%4.6%5.1%16.0%22.1%45.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%三轮车其他机动车普通自行车其他私人汽车公共交通私人摩托车87%86%85%83%60%47%43%32%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%18 30 2024Q1 31 2023 motorcycle data Statista 2 1 1 2023 3%2“”1 印度 东南亚 中国 其他49%20%15%12%4%19 2 1 85%20-40%2 2019-2023 14 143 10 2023 502(2303)2 16%32 2000-2020 33 2009-2022 IEA Wind“”2 2022 800 3500 500 2200 2023 2023 25 700(3100)20 5 2024 5 40%90%2021 2025 2035 2022 2025 2030 5 2030 2020 2022 2022-2025 15 3 1.8 3600 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%20 2022 2023 5-30%0%34 GDP Wind 35 2001 Wind-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000越南 印尼 全球 yoy-越南 yoy-印尼 yoy-全球-50%0%50%100%150%200%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013我国燃油摩托车产量（万 辆）我国电动两轮车产量（万 辆）yoy-燃油摩托车 yoy-电动两轮车 21 3 1 Vinfast Pega Vinfast 75 SMOOT MAKA 36 37 7 5 3 2019 2024 50 2021 306 2022 500 2022 Indomobil 2023 kemper Keeness Voltguard Fierider 2024.1 200 2024 5 700 2024.5 Karawang 300 2024.4 2018 100 2022.5 22 2 2019 88%100-125cc 125cc 4 110/125cc cc Wave 110i 51%110 7260 Wave 125i 25%125 110 10626 Scoopy 22%9765 Vision 26%110 8832 Wave Alpha 18%110 5320 Beat 31%110 8094 Vario 17%125 10221 Scoopy 9%110 9918“”110-125cc 5 Vario 125 Wave RSX Voltguard VinFast Feliz S NEO 113 97 98 110 98/125 110 72V/27Ah 55V/23.2Ah kW 8.19 6.46 5 3.5 KWh 2.3 Nm 10.79 8.7 109.3 138.3 km/h 80 78 40 255 256 100 198 72 23 4074 2203 2799 2700 4909 h-6 9 90 1990 21 80%2016 5%1 2 3 38 2001 Coping with a Giant:Challenges and Opportunities for Thai and Vietnamese Motorcycle Industry from China 4 7 5 2018-2022 17.3%2023 484.3 GDP0.44%Research and Markets 7.1%2032 900 2025 20%180 2023 25 700(3100)2024 5 10%15 30%24 39 Statista 40 125cc 41 Statista Statista 5 2020 8.54%/1.34%/1.1%/0.1%2023 Statista 2023 252 16%/20%/13%2023 Vinfast 02004006008001000120014002018 2019 2020 2021 2022轿车 公交 火车 摩托38.4%35.8%23.4%2.1%0.3%115cc 125cc 150cc 210 500cc 70.2%26.8%2.0%25 42 43 2020 ICCT ICCT 1 1 2023 4 4000 2017 2019 2023H2 5.14%0.90%0.52%0.05%8.54%1.34%1.10%0.10%0%2%4%6%8%10%2019 20200.6%1.1%1.1%3.1%6.2%8.3%8.6%11.8%15.7%43.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%VmotoDK BikeDetechGogoro Anbico DibaoPegaVinfast 26 44 45 2023 2 VFLY“”SKU“”2799 3500-4500 1500 2023 18%46 2023/3 2020 0500100015002000250030003500400045002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-0%20%40%60%80%0200400600800100012001400160018002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023公司两轮车销量（万辆）销量yoy（右）公司市占率（右）-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ASP yoy-ASP yoy-27 2022 8 100%2024 3 2024 2023 G25 2024 1 S9 47 2023 48 S9 1 Wind 4 2007 1 2019 2024 2 2020 800 2022 Indomobil 2024 4 400,500 3 100km 110cc 4 2019 2018 2022 11.926.165.891.891.1002468101214 28 49 50 7 5 2 1 2009“”IP 2023 3 IP“”slogan“”“”“”2024 3999 60 16.8 ASP 51 Q A 2019 50-2025 200 1 2026 300 1.5 KawangVinfast Feliz 雅迪S3 Pro 产 品 对比126 136 重量(kg)56.8km/kWh 54.8km/kWh 能 源 效率72V22Ah 72V38Ah 带电量90km 150km 续 航 里程2.3kW 3.2kW 最 大 功率60km/h 50km/h 最 高 时速7500 元 6900 元 价格(人民币)29 2 2023 2023-2025 5 11463 APP 52 53 2023-2025 1 1 2 3+ASP+店面定位 所处商圈区域 面积（平米）门店类型对品牌形象加分，有辐射带动作用的所 在城市 的形象、销 售、体验及服务标杆店面一类、二类商圈市中心 200-400 城市旗舰店以突出爱玛形象，有辐射带动作用的所在城市的销售主力店一类、二类商圈电动两轮车市场中心80-200 城市标准店位于城乡结合部、乡镇贸易中心等有广告效应的大门头销售店三类、四类商圈电动两轮车市场中心50-200 乡镇样板店地处乡镇，面积及市场容量小销售门店三类、四类商圈电动两轮车市场中心50-120 乡镇基础店4,7131,9201,8871,407802495华东 华南 华中 华北 西南 西北 30 2 1 2 3 4 5 31 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%“”