20240614_国泰君安_医药生物行业医药院外市场2024中期投资策略：医药院外市场集中度有望持续提升_29页.pdf

医药院外市场集中度有望持续提升医药院外市场2024 中期投资策略 1 ZXBYvMnQsRpOqOtQtOrOmN9P8Q7NoMnNpNmQiNoOtNkPmOpO9PrRyRNZsOzRwMpOsO2 3 SShd11SqAH39K16IOLyy0pDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD6RyAxQB0p7pKDZAq9IpO6d 4-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.02022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1 2024Q1 2024 4-5 2023Q2 6 2024Q1 CMH 2023 2024 7.5 11.9 7.9 10.8 11.9 7.8 9.1 9.3 8.9 8.3 39.8 19.3 11.7 3.7 7.1 6.6 3.7 3.7 4.5 8.2 7.1-18.0 2.0 5.9 7.8(40)(20)0204060202201-2202203202204202205202206202207202208202209202210202211202212202301-2202303202304202305202306202307202308202309202310202311202312202401-2202403202404-%5 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 6 20%25%30%35%40%45%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1 0%10%20%30%40%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1 2024Q1 2024Q1 1 7 7-5%0%5%10%15%05001,0001,5002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 010%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 2021 CAGR=6.4%OTC CMH 8 8 OTC CMH 27.77%14.69%11.81%10.42%8.55%7.10%5.49%4.94%3.61%2.16%1.42%1.23%0.80%25%9%5%6%11%16%22%30%25%12%8%11%14%23%33%43%0%10%20%30%40%50%0-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 2008 2018 10 60 2003 12.0%2011 13.7%2023 21.1%2018 55-64 65 33%43%2008 11pct/13pct OTC OTC OTC 9 10 CMH 2024 2 1-2 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%84%26 63%220 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500 2023Q3 2023 2024Q1/11 2021 19003 2022 20793+9%2023 22881+10%2021 14747 2022 15244+3%2023 17718+16%2021 11864 2022 13160+11%2023 16636+26%2021 7139 2022 7633+7%2023 6245-18%2021 9724 2022 10129+4%2023 10475+3%2021 2061 2022 2484 21%2023 33356 2023 28141 2021 3364 2022 3201-5%2%4%2%2021 9296 2022 9353 0.6%2023 10423+11%2021 9321 2022 9558+3%2023 11621+22%2021 5425 2022 5685+5%2023 6097+7%(),6713(),17833(),11575 2022-2023 2022 50%2023 2024 50%12 13 2024.4.29 wind 1/2 SKU/3 CVS Welcia 2-3%4%2017 2-3%4-7%4 14 14/OTC 5 OTC OTC/2021 15-13.57-6.78-6.3-6.26-6.05-5.6-5-3.18-3.18-2.6-2.32-1.5-1.37-0.6-0.44-0.29 0.02 0.15 0.15 0.28 0.45 0.55 1.03 1.131.67 1.86 2.33 2.51 2.694.78-7.9%-12.2%-15.5%-8.2%-19.1%-29.0%-5.7%-7.2%-11.6%-19.7%-5.1%-12.8%-4.7%-1.1%-1.2%-3.3%0.1%1.9%1.0%1.0%1.8%10.0%6.4%1.8%9.2%3.9%6.9%9.2%8.7%85.4%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%(15)(10)(5)05101 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 D-D/-11113151141603171912201020304050 C C D 2024.5.31 50 2024.4.25 50 2024.6.9 9141953715214334113202782 211010203040 A A B B 16 2024.4.25 2024.6.9 O2O/437861141145210246810121416 C C D11937145651032150246810121416 D E F 17 O2O 6-8%30+70+20-25%35-40%+20%2-4%4-6%14-16%2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%/O2O O2O O2O O2O O2O wind CMH 70 O2O 18 vs C 50 22-9.38-7.94-4-3.78-0.31.2 1.33.64.65.17.58.410.711.66-28%-36%-15%-28%-4%14%3%24%20%28%100%165%66%52%-50%0%50%100%150%200%(15)(10)(5)05101517 18 14 22 2 9 13 6 11 12 7 4 26 3-/-1 vs D,7,23%,16,54%,7,23%,5,25%,9,45%,6,30%-2.8-0.50 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.652.53.27 3.9 3.966.1 6.58.7 9.1 9.811.812.9523.936.538.2-100%0%100%200%300%400%(10.0)0.010.020.030.040.050.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23-/-1 19 D 22 8/10 96.6710.54 10.68 11.877.4338.4919.1522.69 23.255.4527.2155.4851.2146.3316.4826.44.0534.6230.989.622.17-75.33-23.76-17.52-7.03-6.27-6.11-4.35-4.22-3.05-1.450.91 1.18 2.01 2.26-44%-69%-62%-37%-46%-14%-19%-16%-12%-21%3%2%4%5%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%(100)(80)(60)(40)(20)0204060801001201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-/-1 20 21 CMH 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023110 1120 2150 51100 101TOP10 TOP101 22 2023 vs2019-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%+23 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2021 1267 158 5 2198220 54 2 226605001000150020002500 2021 24 24 OTC Wind 2023 91.15%91.15%2023 2023 yoy2023*2023 2023 yoy1 26.49 14.7%45.98%(+0.68pct)47.15 16.7%2 23.47 8.2%91.15%(+2.99pct)247.39 36.8%3 22.89 11.4%70.70%(+6.67pct)156.23 10.6%4 18.16 9.2%100%-5 16.29 23.0%100%100.58 15.7%6 15.30 6.5%94.25%(+0.05pct)43.90 13.0%7 15.01 30.4%83.42%(+0.03pct)67.33 12.2%8 14.52 7.3%25.20%-1.34pct)-9 13.43-4.6%24.94%(-5.84pct)178.61 16.2%10 12.07 47.2%100%47.15 16.7%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25 603939.SH 29.20 1.44 1.79 2.21 20 16 13 603883.SH 29.75 1.91 2.31 2.79 16 13 11 000999.SZ 46.05 2.62 2.92 3.16 18 16 15 600566.SH 36.50 3.28 3.57 3.93 11 10 9 600129.SH 35.56 1.94 2.45 3.02 18 15 12 000538.SZ 52.82 2.53 2.74 2.86 21 19 18 26 27 28评级 说明 国泰君安证券研究所E-mail：投资建议的比较标准股票投资评级增持 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅15%以上上海投资评级分为股票评级和行业评级。谨慎增持 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅介于5%15%之间以报告发布后的12个月内的市场表现为比较标准，报告发布日后的12 个月内的公司股价（或行业指数）的涨跌幅相对同期的沪深300指数涨跌幅为基准。中性 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅介于-5%5%深圳 减持 相对沪深300/恒生指数下跌5%以上行业投资评级增持 明显强于沪深300/恒生指数中性 基本与沪深300/恒生指数持平北京 减持 明显低于沪深300/恒生指数地址 上海市静安区新闸路669 号博华广场20 层邮编 200041电话（021）38676666地址 深圳市福田区益田路6003 号荣超商务中心B 栋27 层邮编 518026电话（0755）23976888地址 北京市西城区金融大街甲9 号 金融街中心南楼18 层邮编 100032电话（010）83939888