20240530_源达信息_半导体行业专题研究：大基金三期正式启航半导体行业自主可控加速推进_21页.pdf

A0190523020001 A0190123070008 300 Wind 1.2023.09.15 2.2024.02.01 3.2024.02.08 4.2024.04.24:-50%-30%-10%10%2023/5 2023/9 2024/1集成电路指数 沪深300/App 2024 5 24 3440 19/2014 9 26 987.2 2019 10 22 2041.5 EDA 3440 1 2 3 EDA IP 4 Chiplet HBM 1 2&3 EDA&IP 4 5&2 一、大基金三期正式成立，助力半导体制造国产突破.4 二、半导体产业链环环相扣，自主可控是未来大趋势.5 三、上游供应链：国产薄弱环节，“卡脖子”风 险大.9 1.半导 体设备.9 2.半导 体材料.11 3.E D A&I P.13 四、投资建议.18 1.建议 关注.18 2.万得 一致预 测.19 五、风险提示.20 1.4 2.5 3.5 4 2022.7 5.7 6 2024 970.9 7.10 8 2022.10 9 5.10 10/.10 11.10 12.12 13/.12 14.12 15 EDA.13 16 EDA.14 17 2024 EDA 87.14 18 2022 EDA 115.14 19 2022 EDA 2%.15 20 2022 EDA 20%.15 21 IP.15 22 2023 IP CR3 69%.16 XVEVvMsPtQpOoQsRmRqPmN7N9R7NmOpPnPqMiNqQmRjMnOpO6MrQnNwMmNpOvPnPmP 3 1.6 2.8 3.11 4.13 5.17 6.19 4 App 2024 5 24 3440 19 1 2014 9 26 987.2 2019 10 22 2041.5 EDA 3440 nshT1ntbHOvojW5NRlcvLpKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MPPkYPzpHPmBSqvsK88gPTR 5 1 2 3 EDA IP 4 Chiplet HBM EDA IP 2 MCU IGBT MOSFET 3 6 IDM Foundry Fabless IDM intel AMD IDM IC IDM IDM fabless IDM IDM fabless IDM fabless IDM 1 IDM foundry fabless 2023-2024 SIA 2022 5740 3.20%SIA WSTS 2023 5150 10.0%2024 AI 2022 69%7 4 2022 5 SIA WSTS SIA WSTS EDA&IP 2022 10 7 BIS EDA&IP 4123440455595740515001000200030004000500060007000 8 2 2022/10/7 31 14nm logic 128 NAND Flash 18nm DRAM 2022/12/15 ICRD 36 2023/1/27 10 7 BIS 2023/3/8 ASML 2000i 2023/3/31 23 7 2023/6/30 ASML TWINSCAN NXT:2000i 9 1 2023/7/23 23 9 1.2024 SEMI 2023 9 2023 2022 995 840 16%2024 AIGC 970 2023 15%6 2024 970 SEMI&1/12-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0200400600800100012002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E全球晶圆厂设备支出（亿美元）YOY 10 7 2022 22%22%17%8 2022 9 5 SEMI 10/11 050100150200250 11 AMAT ASML LAM TEL KLA 2022 28nm 0-1 90nm ArF 28nm 3 PVD 20%CVD TEL ALD TEL TEL 20%ASML 20%DNS TEL 50%CMP TYK 30%Axcell 10%30%Gartner 2.SEMI 2023 667 415 252 7.0%10.1%2023 12 2024 12 SEMI 33%14%12.9%CMP 13/14 SEMI SEMI CMP 01002003004005006007008002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023晶圆制造材料 封装材料33.0%14.0%12.9%7.0%7.1%6.1%4.0%2.9%12.9%硅材料工艺化学品光掩膜光刻胶配套试剂CMP 抛光材料光刻胶电子气体溅射靶材其他 13 4 SUMCO Toppan JSR TOK CMP DOW Cabot 3.EDA&IP EDA EDA EDA IP fabless 15 EDA EDA EDA EDA 14 16 EDA EDA SEMI ESDA 2023 EDA 85 2024 87 2022 EDA/IP 115 19%IC EDA 17 2024 EDA 87 18 2022 EDA 115 SEMI ESDA EDA Synopsys Cadence Siemens EDA 2022 74%Synopsys Cadence Siemens EDA EDA IP IC 2022 11%050100 全球EDA/IP 市场规模（亿美元）0204060801001201402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 15 EDA EDA EDA 19 2022 EDA 2%20 2022 EDA 20%IP IP IP IC IC IP 28nm 50 IP 37 IP IP Nest 2022 IP 66.8 IP 50%21 IP 2023 IP ARM 40%IP Nest 2023 IP TOP3 ARM Synopsys Cadence ARM 2016 Synopsys,30%Cadence,29%Siemens EDA,15%Ansys,5%Keysight,4%华大九天,1%其他,15%Cadence,29%Synopsys,28%Siemens EDA,16%华大九天,7%Ansys,5%Keysight,3%概伦电子,2%广立微,2%其他,8%9 10142028385064811021261 451119273749627692050100150200250250nm 180nm 130nm 90nm 65nm 45nm 28nm 16nm 10nm 7nm 5nm数字IP 数模混合IP 16 ARM Synopsys Cadence EDA 2023 1.9%22 2023 IP CR3 69%IP Nest IP IP IP TOP3 ARM Synopsys Cadence IP IP TOP10 IP ARM,41.80%Synopsys,21.90%Cadence,5.60%Imagination Technologies,2.20%Alphawave,3.10%Ceva,1.40%芯原股份,1.90%其他,22.10%17 5 ARM Synopsys Cadence Imagination CEVA IP IP IP IP Nest 18 1.2023 3440 1 2 3 4 EDA IP 5 19 2.6 PE 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 002371.SZ 56.9 76.7 98.3 27.9 20.7 16.1 1586 688012.SH 20.3 26.2 34.1 39.6 30.7 23.5 803 688072.SH 8.3 11.4 14.9 41.7 30.3 23.2 346 688037.SH 3.4 4.8 5.9 36.3 26.0 21.0 125 603650.SH 4.9 6.0 7.1 37.3 30.7 25.8 184 688268.SH 2.3 3.1 3.8 25.5 19.4 15.6 60 002158.SZ 9.6 11.2 12.8 10.7 9.2 8.0 103 301269.SZ 1.6 2.8 4.0 264.7 147.7 106.8 420 688521.SH 0.2 1.1 2.7 858.0 129.6 51.4 141 603986.SH 10.8 16.0 20.3 49.9 33.5 26.4 536 688981.SH 41.0 53.5 58.8 42.0 32.2 29.3 1722 002156.SZ 9.2 12.8 16.8 38.3 27.6 21.1 354 Wind 2024/05/29 20 21 6 300 300 10%300 10%10%300 10%6 300 300 20 300 10 20 300 10 10 300 10 Table_Contact 167 1199 1 2306C 911301001043661976