美团点评深度之四：“外卖”与“服务营销”赛道的领跑者.pdf

| 2019 09 08 -W 03690.HK B C C 2023 307 166.5 18 64 6 65% 19Q2 17 / 8/ / 18 60 19/20/21 1/71/150 160 / 21% 1% 50% 80% 400 160 18 40 19/20/21 60/84/105 Q2 19Q2 18Q1/18Q2/18Q3/18Q4/19Q1/ 19Q2 -0.8/-19.0/-13.0/-9.8/-4.4/4.2 19Q2 19/20/21 -33.2/-6.7/8.6 251.8 / / / / / 19H1 20.3%/1.8%/1.4%/0.3%/5.8%/0.2% 18 3.1/3.2/0.3/1.2/0.8/0.3pct 29.8% 18 8.8pct 19H1 586 201518 5% 137.29 19 19/20/21 NON-GAAP 28/148/ 263 EPS 0.46/2.40/4.19 / / 0.99/1.18/0 P/GTV / / 4392/2129/0 6520 7165 137.29 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 33,928 65,227 94,146 121,221 148,814 yoy % 161% 92% 44% 29% 23% NON-GAAP -2,853 -8,519 2,785 14,839 26,272 yoy % 95% -199% 133% 433% 77% EPS / -1.87 -2.99 0.46 2.40 4.19 % 47% -134% 0% 6% 11% 73.75 ( ) 384,951.49 ( ) 5,219.68 (%) 30 ( ) S0680518060003 jiaojungszq zhangzegszq 1 -W 03690.HK 2019- 02-04 2 -W 03690.HK 18Q3 GMV 2018-11-23 3 -W 2018-09-20 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2018-09-20 2019-01-20 2019-05-20 -W 2019 09 08 P.2 19Q2 14.9 Q2 28.5 1 2 85% 14% 3 1P 3P 2020 19Q4 15% 7%- 8% Q2 Q2 17 18 1.5 2 19 8000-10000 2019 09 08 P.3 APP 5 2019 09 08 P.4 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 54,438 73,149 77,992 101,163 134,863 33,928 65,227 94,146 121,221 148,814 19,409 17,044 8,233 27,798 59,884 21,708 50,122 65,024 75,921 87,524 432 466 1,200 1,545 1,897 10,909 15,872 15,000 16,741 18,476 4,186 9,065 9,365 10,813 11,624 3,647 7,072 7,500 8,486 9,538 88 400 265 309 356 2,171 5,832 5,900 6,659 7,479 30,322 46,174 58,929 60,699 61,102 681 2,585 600 630 663 29,196 47,512 50,933 50,930 50,965 (3,826) (11,086) 1,322 14,043 26,459 7,872 8,345 8,604 8,840 9,100 (42) (249) (300) (300) (300) 916 3,979 3,736 4,615 5,498 (15,149) (104,654) - - - 19,853 33,876 37,380 36,143 34,909 (18,934) (115,491) 1,622 14,343 26,759 312 867 768 887 1,012 54 2 962 2,284 4,014 243 445 445 445 445 (18,988) (115,493) 660 12,059 22,745 83,634 120,662 128,925 152,094 185,828 - - - - - 20,517 31,825 27,912 32,946 36,580 (18,988) (115,493) 660 12,059 22,745 162 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 (18,917) (115,477) 660 12,059 22,745 12,031 12,937 13,818 17,150 19,099 non-GAAP (2,853) (8,519) 2,785 14,839 26,272 8,325 17,088 12,294 13,996 15,681 EBITDA (2,692) (4,734) 7,263 19,765 31,691 103,618 2,327 2,644 3,050 3,464 EPS / (1.87) (2.99) 0.46 2.40 4.19 101,418 36 36 36 36 2,200 2,291 2,608 3,014 3,428 124,136 34,152 30,556 35,996 40,044 58 5 5 5 5 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 0 0 0 0 0 9,339 258,285 258,285 258,285 258,285 % 161% 92% 44% 29% 23% 466 (5,741) (5,741) (5,741) (5,741) EBITDA % 46% -76% 253% 172% 60% (40,501) 86,510 173,483 185,542 208,287 % -78% -510% 101% 784% 87% 83,634 120,662 204,039 221,538 248,330 % -159% -199% 133% 433% 77% % 36% 23% 31% 37% 41% 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E % -8% -13% 3% 12% 18% (310) (9,180) 944 22,977 36,019 ROE % 47% -134% 0% 6% 11% (18,934) (115,491) 1,622 14,343 26,759 844 4,830 4,994 4,849 4,543 % 148% 28% 24% 24% 22% 10 9 0 0 0 % -306% 39% 18% 19% 19% 13 0 0 0 0 265% 230% 279% 307% 369% 2,512 (4,641) (8,096) 705 889 265% 229% 278% 306% 368% 15,244 106,113 2,425 3,079 3,828 (15,157) (23,439) (8,797) (3,413) (3,933) 50% 64% 75% 86% 88% (742) (5,690) (3,295) (4,185) (5,093) 97.1 145.1 113.0 88.3 86.5 (14,160) (10,451) (5,243) 1,009 1,420 3.8 5.2 7.0 7.8 8.2 (290) (845) (259) (236) (260) / 35 (6,453) (0) 0 0 (1.87) (2.99) 0.46 2.40 4.19 25,508 29,295 0 0 0 (0.20) (3.22) 0.15 3.72 5.74 161 1,498 0 0 0 (26.49) 30.35 28.47 30.00 33.18 25,803 28,615 0 0 0 (651) (846) 0 0 0 P/E (34.04) (21.25) 138.97 26.47 15.18 196 28 0 0 0 P/B (2.40) 2.09 2.23 2.12 1.91 10,040 (3,323) (7,852) 19,565 32,086 EV/EBITDA 7.15 3.22 (0.89) (1.32) (1.83) 2019 09 08 P.5 . 2 “ ” “ ” . 8 1.1 . 8 1.2 .10 .11 2.1 .11 2.2 .15 2.3 .16 2.4 ? .18 2.5