2019年奢侈品全球市场春季版研究报告（英文版）.pptx

,LUXURY GOODS,WORLDWIDE MARKETSTUDY, SPRING 2019,CLAUDIA DARPIZIO | FEDERICA LEVATO,PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET IN 2018 CONFIRMED THE “NEWNORMAL” STARTED IN 2017,Democratization,“Sortie du temple”,Crisis,Chinese bulimia,Reboot,New normal,96-18CAGR+6%,+3%+6%,17-18YoY,Current,Exch. rate,Constant,Ex,e2,STRONG 2018 HOLIDAY SEASON ALMOST EVERYWHERE ACROSS THEWORLD,TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF AMERICANCONSUMERS SPENDING,TOURISM ACCELERATION FUELING POSITIVE GROWTH FOR EUROPE,CHINESE CONSUMERS CONFIRMED AS KEY MARKET ENGINE,Chinese consumers driving market growth: accelerations in domestic spending, at the expense of its neighbors, Hong Kong and MacauUncertainties on US China trade war causing continuing decline in Asian travel to the US,Weakening of the Euro against all major currencies causingincreased tourist inflows to Continental EuropePositive final quarter for the region, although with differences across countries: Brexit in UK and continuous socio-political protests in France represent potential risks for the future of the region,Ongoing changes in US tax plan creating temporal uncertainties,negatively impacting consumer spending on personal luxury goodsMalls and department stores underperforming as traffic continues to decline, while monobrand stores maintain a positive growth trend,3,POSITIVE Q1 2019 PERFORMANCE, WITH CHINESE SPENDING DYNAMICSFUELING GLOBAL LUXURY SCENE,+8%+ 5%,Q1 2019,at current exchange rates,at constant exchange rates,Leather and Jewelry maintaining a sustained pace of growth, withpositive momentum for handbags as well Beauty confirming positive 2018 trend, with solid growth in skin-care and make-up partially offset by mild performance in fragrancesApparel still sluggish, with menswear segment showing signs of a re-startWatches on hesitant recovery, with mixed trends across regions: HongKong still suffering, while Europe (and UK) on a positive trend,/+,EUROPE,AMERICAS,JAPAN,ASIA,ROW,-,Fragmented performances across EU, with impact of socio-political turmoilin UK and France partially offsetting higher tourism spending in the EurozonePromising rise in domestic consumption on full-price stores, despite a declining flow of Chinese tourists,Mild growth, still fueled by Chinese consumers,+ China dominating the luxury scene, with Hong Kong and Macau losing,groundMixed performances in Middle East: soft but positive re-awakening of,Dubai, with Qatar and Saudi showing weak tourism luxury spending,BEAUTY,APPAREL,WATCHES,+ACCESSORIES & JEWELRY+/+,4,2019 FULL-YEAR OUTLOOK BY REGION (1/2),AMERICAS,EUROPE,MAINLAND CHINA,US maintaining its positive growth, fueled by full-price channels with strong domestic consumption in the retail and online segments, plus revamped tourist flows from Mexico and Brazil; off-price channel suffering from lower footfall, sign of an uncertain aspirational customerOn the radar: evolving US China trade agreements pose potential risk to luxury consumers confidence in the coming monthsMexico on the rise; Canada still on a positive trend, thanks to favorable exchange rate boosting local consumption and offsetting reduction in tourist purchases,Differences across countries in domestic consumptions; regional performance increasinglystimulated by tourists inflows and spending due to weakening currencyWeakening macro-economic outlook, political evolution following recent elections and unclear development on Brexit agreement potentially damaging overall confidence of localconsumers towards luxury spending,Price harmonization, consumer-centered strategies and governmental initiatives continuing to favor local purchases: cross-border luxury shopping still on a declining trend, yet relevant in Europe due to exchange rate effect,Solid consumer confidence and willingness to buy, especially among young generations, sustaining luxury purchases; digital channel providing an extra boost,5,2019 FULL-YEAR OUTLOOK BY REGION (2/2),REST OF ASIA,JAPAN,REST OF WORLD,Positive growth trend across the entire region, except in Hong Kong and Macau, impacted byreduced tourist spending (mainly from Chinese)Expanding middle classs disposable income fueling growth in SEA countries: Indonesia, Philippinesand Vietnam in the spotlightSustained growth in S. Korea, particularly in downtown locations, primarily fueled by local consumers, with a mild but encouraging rebound of tourist flows,Japan maintaining its exclusivity: boost in travel retail favored by the 2020 Tokyo Olympic games,with Chinese tourists confirming their interests in the regionIncreasing average ticket as new rich from SEA still prefer splurging in Japan due to more productchoice: creation of new routes for grey marketIkina-rich on the rise: young tech entrepreneurs less interested in ostentatious luxury and morein experiences,Confirmed uncertainties across Middle East: domestic consumer spending flowing outside regionas currency appreciates; e-commerce and soft luxury registering positive accelerationGrowth in Australia slowing down as foreign purchase restrictions and capital controls raise in ChinaNewly emerging economies still timid in showing their potential, mainly due to infrastructural gaps,6,GLOBAL LUXURY GOODS GROWTH IN 2019 EXPECTED STEADY, CONFIRMINGTHE RESPECTIVE GROWTH CONTRIBUTION OF THE VARIOUS REGIONS,AMERICAS,EUROPE+1/+3%,+2/+4%,REST OF THE WORLD-2/0%,MAINLAND CHINA+ 18/+20%,JAPAN+2/+4%,2019F GLOBAL PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET,+,7,4/ 6%,+,AT CONSTANT,EXCHANGERATES,Note: Figures refer to growth ranges at constant exchange rate,REST OF ASIA (EXCLUDINGM. CHINA)+ 10/+12%,+ 3/ 5%,19E25F,CAGR,K: growth at constant exchange rates,+4/6%,k,+6%,k,SOLID MID-TERM GROWTH TO 2025, DRIVEN BY POSITIVE FUNDAMENTALS,WITH SOME POSSIBLE BUMPS ALONG THE ROAD2025 Personal luxury goods market trendsPersonal luxury goods market forecast | B,Chinese customers will account for 45%+ of the global market, with half of their luxury purchases happening in Mainland ChinaOnline channel representing 25% of global market value, with 100% of luxury purchases digitally enabled,New generations (Y+Z) delivering 130%of future market growth,Digital penetration fostering store network consolidation and leading to a radical change in physical stores role,Cultures/sub-cultures and newconsumption trends will arise,YZ,8,UNDER THE SURFACE OF A NEW NORMAL PHASE OF MARKET GROWTH:NEXT GEN LUXURY IS ARISING,NEW-GENERATION,POST-OWNERSHIP,AFTER-LIFE,BEYOND-PHYSICAL,Chinese Gen Z - the “segment to watch”: significant spending force, impulse buyers, proud and empowered,Paradigm shift in consumption favoring access over ownership (e.g. Rental)Accelerating 2nd hand market favored by digital players with global scale,Sustainability, Social responsibility and Circular fashion as a new mantra: new vision for the environment, for human labor and animal welfare,Digital disrupting the entire luxury value chain and asking for a holistic redesign of the entire technology eco-system,Experience and eco- system over product,ABOVE-VOLUME/PRICECustomer networks as the new and exponential measure of value, beyond product and brand,9,INSURGENT BRANDS AND BUSINESS MODELS ARE CHALLENGING THE RULESOF THE GAME, ASKING ESTABLISHED BRANDS FOR A FULL TRANSFORMATION,BRAND,GROWTH,PRODUCT,OPERATING,MODEL,DISTRIBUTION,BRAND AND,MARKETING,Hero product(s)Fast creativity-,to-store,Monthly novelty,Episodic,narrativesCommunities on shared valuesReal time andalways-on,Direct-to-,customerPlatforms 2.0Temporaryactivations,Data-driven andautomatedFit for purposeMicro-battlesand test for,results,Creativity expanding beyond product in all business areas,Creativity-led transformation needed for established luxury giants,10,PEOPLE PASSION RESULTS!,Claudia DArpizio, Partner Bain & Company Luxury goods vertical,Claudia has spent 25 years advising multinational luxury and fashion clients on everything from strategyand new product development to innovation and organizational change.She is the lead author of the Bain Luxury Study, one of the most cited sources of market information in the luxury industry.In 2009, Claudia was also recognized as one of the Top 25 Consultants in the World by Consulting Magazine.,Federica Levato, PartnerBain & Company Luxury goods verticalOver the last 15 years, Federica has led more than 300 assignments in the fashion and luxury industry on issues relating to corporate and brand strategy, portfolio management, merchandising, retail and wholesale excellence, digital acceleration, millennial strategies, marketing and communication, and more.Alongside Claudia DArpizio, Federica is the co-author of the Bain Luxury Study, one of the most citedsources of market information in the luxury industry.,12,BAIN CONTACTS,13,For any questions or further discussion, pleasecontact:Claudia DArpizioPartner (Milan)Email: claudia.darpiziobainFederica LevatoPartner (Milan)Email: federica.levatobain,For a copy of the study, please contact:International pressKatie Ware(katie.warebain or +1 646-562-8107)Dan Pinkney(dan.pinkneybain or +1 646-562-8102)Italian pressGiulia Zanichelli(giulia.zanichellibain or +39 02 58288 252),METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY,Bottom-up and top-down estimates,Revenues at retail equivalent value,Retail,Wholesale,Licenses,PLAYER CONSOLIDATED SALES,Retail,Wholesale at retail value,Licenses at retail value,PLAYER SALES AT RETAIL VALUE,+,+,+,+,Application of estimated,mark ups by geography,and category,Application of estimated,royalty rates and mark ups by geography and product category,Revenues at retail value represent total sales valued at retail price.Each player consolidated sales are retailized through the following methodology:,Bottom-up,Top-downIndustry-specific (e.g. watches vs. beauty) data in the main geographical marketsComparison between market breakdown and turnover breakdown for key playersTens of industry experts interviews (top management of brands, distributors, department stores, )Consistency check on the data and fine tuning,We add brands individual retail values.,.we cross check results,14,