2019中国能源化工产业发展报告3（英文版）.pptx

,Chinas Energy Transition and,Development Path,March 20th 2019,CONTENTS,1.,Evolution of Chinas Energy Supply and Demand Structure,2.,Coal Demand and Development Trend,3.,Oil Demand and Development Trend,Gas Demand and Development Trend,Non-fossil Energy Demand and Development Trend,4.,5.,Future Energy Demand and International Cooperation,6.,Evolution on Chinas EnergySupply and Demand,Energy production and consumption have maintained growth and energy self-sufficiency has declined,Energy consumption grew; Supply stable;Self-sufficiency rate :111.8% (1985) to 98.2% (1992), 93.7% (2000) and 79% (2018).,Domestic oil and gas production is stable.Growth of oil and gas consumption replaces coal.2018, coal consumption dropped to 59%, 10 % lower than in 2000.,4,39,Coal,Oil,Gas,R/P,reserve,reserve,R/P,reserve,36.7,5.5 trillion cubic m,18.3,3.5 billion tons,138.8 billion tons,R/P,5,Industrialization,2018： proportion of tertiary industry 51.6% 2030：60.3%,2018：1.40 billion 2029：1.44 billion, peak,Population,Urbanization,Economic Growth,2018：60%2030：70%,2018：GDP growth 6.9%2030：GDP growth 5%,China Key economic development indexes estimated,6,Oil,Gas,Coal,Non-fossil,2.2% VS 2018,7% VS 2018,9% VS 2018,11% VS 2018,Targets for 2030 within the framework of Chinas energy revolution,Total Energy Demand: 4.2billion toeGreenhouse gas per unit of GDP: reduces 60%-65% than 2005 Terminal energy consumption : electricity increases to 30%,Energy consumption revolution2020/2030,energy demand : below 5/6 billion tce (3.5/4.2 billion toe).,Energy supply revolutionAdded energy is mainly from clean energy,International cooperationOverseas cooperation；one belt one road energy corridor,Technology revolutionEnergy-saving technologies; smart energy technologies,Energy system revolutionEffective and competitive energy market system;Market-oriented pricing mechanism;Energy legal system.,Coal Demand and Development Trend,0,5,10,15,20,25,30,35,40,45,8,Consumption increasedImports increased,1990-2005,2005-2013,2013-,Three stages of Chinas coal consumption since 1990Steady development;Production exceeded consumptionSelf-sufficiency,Energy conservationEmission reductionEnergy structure transitionCutting the backward capacityEncourage the import of high-quality coal,2005, difference between consumption and production expand, coal imports accelerated.,Coal consumption, production and imports（100 million tons）2013, coal consumption and,imports peaking at the same time.,consumptionproductionimportSince 2005, Chinas dependence ratio on foreign coal remained between 6% and 7.5%. The external dependence ratio of 2018 is 7.3%.,Coal consumption reached its peak on 2013,Consumption：2.4 billion tons Production ： 2.3 billion tons,Consumption：4.2 billion tons Imports : 0.3 billion tons,Coal demand target4.0-4.1 billion tons2016-2020,Coal demand target 3.5-4.0 billion tons2021-2030,Coal demand will decline in the future.,Power generationprogressin,REpower,storagetechnologyand,support system for grid57% of total coal used for power in 2035 and 45% in 2050.,Steelentering stable stage10% of coal demand in steel in2030, 7% in 2050.,Building materials:Slower development step.13% of coal used in2017,and 6% in 2050.,ChemicalsModerncoalchemical industry developIncrease from 7% in 2017to 30% in 2050.,Coal demand target 3.0-3.5 billion tons2031-2050,9,10,Optimization of coal industry is to mainly promote construction of integrated base,Internationalcooperationinscienceand technology promote base construction,Around 2020, the output of 14 large coal bases will be 3.7 billion tons, accounting formore than 95% of the total coal production.,Coal production,Coal clean energy base,Coal power,Chemical production,Coal to oil (gas),Power grid transmission,Pipeline transportation,Land transportation,Olefins, etc.,Base construction:coalproduction,chemicalconversion,electricity, building materials integrated,Oil Demand and Development Trend,0.0%,10.0%,20.0%,30.0%,40.0%,50.0%,70.0%,0,10000,20000,30000,40000,50000,60000,70000,2000,2001,20022003,20042005,20062007,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,China oil demand, supply and foreign dependence ratio(10 thousand tons),production,20082009consumption,201020112012foreign dependence ratio,12,Domestic production decrease and refining capacity increase led to external dependence ratio rise,Oil price down,2016,199million tons,2017,2018,192190million tons million tons,Refining capacity growth,2018,Net increase of 18 milliontonsRefining capacity reached 770 million tons2017,Net increase of 22 million tons Refining capacityreached 830 million tons,64800 80.0%,19000,70.7% 60.0%,China oil demand, supply and foreign dependence ratio(10 thousand tons),200010000,3000,4000,5000,6000,7000,Oil imports by major countries (10 thousand tons),Imports in 2000,Imports in 2017,Importing country in 2000New importing countries in 2017,2000: 30 importing countries, covering the Middle East, Africa, Europe/former Soviet Union, the Americas and the Asia-Pacific region. The import volume was led by the Middle East, nearly 38 million tons, far exceeding other regions.2017: 43 importing countries, 13 of which were added and mainly from Africa, America and Europe. Most of the new imports came from the Middle East and Europe, with Saudi Arabia increase more than 45 million tons.13,China has more oil trade partners in the world,2017 imports of52 million tons,2000 imports of16 million tons,14,The oil demand will reach its peak with over 700 million tons around 2027.,Chinas population:1.44 billion,Energy efficiency :the worlds advanced level,Urbanization level:70%,Number of electric :50-80 million ; 1/4 of the total.,Data sources: EDRI,Aviation kerosene: Driven by annual growth rate of passenger turnover.,Gasoline: replaced by electrification; a decade ofgrowth,Diesel:replacedbygasinurban buses, and truck transportation.,709million tons,By 2030:,15,Resource,Unconve- ntionals,Output,Resource Conversion Rate,Rich in petroleum35% proven, and has potential,Resource conversion rate is,LowImproving recovery andconversion rate throughtechnological progress,Shale oil and oil sands are rich.The State Key Laboratory of Shale Oil has been set up .,Diversified investorsOil production will have space for growth,Domestic supply: widen E&P fields and EOR technologies,Natural Gas Demand and DevelopmentTrend,Source：Operation bureau of national development and reform commission，EDRI,Natural gas demand is growing rapidly, with the External dependence exceeding 40%,17,The west-east gas pipeline in operation,Natural gas utilization policies,Medium and long-term energy planning outline: Energetically develop natural gas,First stage(before 2000)Utilization around of fieldIndustrial gas is dominant,Stable demand(2000-2010),Cross-regional utilizationCity gas demand growth,Begin of LNG import,Begin of pipeline gas import,Period of Rapid demandImport accelerateChannels and domestic pipelineOptimization of demand,10 measures for the prevention and control ofair pollution.,Utilization accelerating,18,Diversified imports, more gas trade partners, quick LNG import growth,2006-2007，85% came from long- term contracts in AustraliaThe rest from spot contracts in Oman, Algeria and Nigeria.,Middle East,Oman Qatar Yemen,EuropeBelgium U.K.France Netherland Norway Russia,AmericaPeru Trinidad andTobago Canada U.S.A.,AfricaAlgeria Angola Cameroon EgyptEquatorial guinea Nigeria,Map of LNG and pipeline gas import of China,Asia PacificIndonesia Malaysia AustraliaPapua New GuineaExporters in 2012Imported from Yemen only in 2012,2012, mainly from Qatar, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Yemen and Russia.,Australia 24%,Qatar 34%,Malaysia 13%,Indonesi a16%,Russia 3%,Yemen 4%,others 6%,Chinas LNG import structure in 2012,New exporters in 2018,Russia,Countries and regions of pipeline gas importChina has imported LNG from more than 20 countries in 2018.,Myanmar,Central Asia,Australia, 44%,Qatar, 17%,Malaysia, 11%,Indonesia, 9%,U.S.A., 4%Papua New Guinea, 5%,Chinas LNG import structure in 2018others, 11%,2030,2050,Source：EDRI,Power,Industrial fuelCity gas Chemicalmaterials,51.0 bcm91 bcm110 bcm26 bcm,189 bcm231 bcm,210 bcm,70 bcm,2050,2018,POWER: If gas turbine technology can be mastered, fixed cost of gas power plant will be reduced from 90% to 30%.,INDUSTRIAL FUELEmission reduction Efficiency improvement Promoted to nationwide,CITY GAS: Rate of gasification :80%Gasinpublictransportationand freight logistics be promoted.,CHEMICAL MATERIALS:Growth will be slower.,34%,24%,33% 2040,9%,39%,18%,33%2018,10%,City gas,Power,Industrial fuel,Chemical materials,36%,1048,1608,408,19,Medium and long-term gas demand structure will be stableChinas natural gas consumption forecast （bcm）,20,Upstream E&P,Increase investment,to discovermore reserves and output.,Key Projects for Natural Gas,Gas storgeIncrease working,gas storge capacity,underground,Pipeline network interconnectionKey natural gas infrastructure connectivity projects for 2019 have been launched.,LNG Terminals,Keep quick pace on construction of LNG terminals,.,Non-fossil Energy Demand andDevelopment Trend,22,Technological advancements enhance Non-fossil energys competitiveness,From 2017 to 2025, Chinas large solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power investment costs will be reduced by about 50% and 30%LCOE cost of electricity will be reduced by about 35% and 25% respectively.,Note: National average, LCOE: Levelized Cost of Electricity. Data sources: Chinese State Grid Energy Research Institute, IRENA,Chinas large Photovoltaic station installed cost and LCOE,0.54,0.43,0.39,0.35,0,2,4,6,8,10,12,0,0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,2017,2020,2022,2025,Investment Cost, RMB Yuan/kW,LCOE， RMB Yuan/kWh,LCOE,Investment Cost,0.47,0.40,0.38,0.35,0,2,4,6,8,10,(0.1),0.0,0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,Chinas onshore wind power station installed cost and LCOE0.612,2017,2020,2022,2025,Investment Cost, RMB Yuan/kW,LCOE， RMB Yuan/kWh,LCOE,Investment Cost,23,Non-fossil energy: Chinas electricity generation capacity will keep fast growing,2018, Chinas non-Fossil energy cumulative installed power capacity is780 GW, 40% of the total installedpower capacity, generating2200 TWh of electricity, 30% of total electricity generation.2050, Chinas non-Fossil energy cumulative installed power capacity will be over 2800 GW, generating7300 TWh of electricity.,0,500,1000,1500,2000,2500,3000,20052010,Cumulative installed power capacity, GW,Hydro power,20152020WindBio-power,202520302035204020452050Solar PVCSPothersNuclear power,40003000200010000,8000700060005000,2005,2010,2015,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,2045,2050,Electricity generation, TWh,Hydro power,Wind,Bio-power,Solar power,others,Nuclear power,Chinas Non-fossil energy cumulative installed power capacity,Chinas Non-fossil energy electricity generation,Energy Demand & International Cooperation Outlook,Outlook on China Medium-Long Term Energy Demand,Non-fossil1.4 billion toe by 2050,35% of totalMain energy source,Chinas energy transition :Coal demand reduction; clean use of coalnatural gas demand increasestable oil demand;non-fossil energy keep growth,Total energypeaking around 20454.2 billion toe,Coalcontinues to decline34% of total by 2050,OilPeaking around 2030720 million tons,Natural gasPeaking around 2050700 billion m,25,26,Refining12 overseas refining projectsTotal refining capacity of 73.6 million tons/year.,Chemical2010-2016,Keep growth in overseas investment Total overseas investment : 200 billion yuan,Trading,More oil and gas trade partnersTrading has become an important link,Engineering service Market service in Russia, Central Asia, the Middle East and South Asia,UpstreamMore than 30 oil and gas companies have overseas businessMore than 200 oil and gas projects in 50 countries,Chinese companies overseas business will maintain steady development,27,Oil and gas E&P,Domestic upstream market will be further openCooperation field diversified,Pipeline,infrastructure constructionacceleratingThe new negative list of foreign investment encourages multiple investment entities to enter,China is committed to building high-end, low-energy consumption petrochemical integration base.By 2020, build 7 domestic bases.,Chinas booming oil and gas industry is providing opportunities for global enterprisesInternational cooperation will enhance energy and chemical industries.More foreign enterprises are entering Chinese market.Refining & Chemical,THANKS,