2019中国能源化工产业发展报告1（英文版）.pptx

,New Horizons forChina Petrochemical Industry,CONTENTS,1Increasing Petrochemicals apacity of hina,2Booming Petrochemicals Market of hina,3,Trends and hallenges,ncreasingPetrochemicals Capacity of China,PetBochem:calC G:antC Cook:ng UA MajoB EFAanC:on foB Ch:na,4,2 18: CNOOC & Shell JV2 2 : ZRPC2 21: CNPC2 23: EFFonMob:l O/C PBoject2 2 -2 25: Ha:nan Ref:n:ng & Chem:cal,2 2 : Hengl: PC2 21: NoBth HEaj:n PC2 21: R&SUN,2 2 : GEle: PC2 2 : QEanGhoE PCTBD: FHC & SAB&C JV,2 19: Zhej:ang PC PhaCe & &2 21: Shenghong PC2 2 -2 25: ZRCC,Bohai Gulf,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,Announced Integrated Projects 2019-2025,2025C2 13.5/24%PX 13.3/30%,2025C2 15.3/27%PX 20.2/45%,2025C2 6.4/11%PX 2.0/4.5%,4%,11%,14%,22%,0,50,100,150,200,2025F,Capacity of ethylene and PX of China has reached 25MTA and 13.8MTA in 2018, which is expected to reach 53MTA and 40MTA by 2025, both ranking the 1st in the world.,MTAOthersUSMiddle EastChina+10%250,AAGR: 14%,+8%,World Ethylene Capacity and Regional Share,6%,20%,24%,47%,9080706050403020100,20002005201020152018 2020F,2025F,MTA,AAGR: 19%,+14%,+9%,20002005201020152018 2020FWorld PX Capacity and Regional Share,5,China mpowering the World Capacity GrowthChina alone contributes 50-70% of the new capacity during another two round of expansion in 2019 and 2023.,1996-20002007-20092012-2013,2018-2019,2021-2025,Note: Basic chemicals including ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene, toluene, PX and methanol,14MTA,21MTA,15MTA,30MTA,25MTA,11%,45%,69%,55%,44%,ChinaMiddle EastUS,OthersAverage Annual New Capacity of Basic Petrochemicals,BoomingPetrochemicals Market of hina,China Still the argest Petrochemicals Market,7,China still holds the largest share of world petrochemicals demand, which is expected to maintain a high growth after the recent booming period. Demand of synthetic resin, fiber and rubber is expected reach 135MTA, 60MTA and 3.2MTA respectively by 2025.,16%,30%,38%,40%,0,50,100,150,200,250,300,MTA350,2000Others,2010Middle East,2019F2025FUSChina,AAGR:11%,7%,6%,Share and Growth of Synthetic Resin Demand,30%,63%,71%,74%,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,MTA,2000Others,2010Middle East,2019F2025FUSChina,Share and Growth of Synthetic Fiber Demand,14%,6.5%,5.5%,10%,22%,25%,27%,0,2,4,6,8,10,12,MTA,2000Others,2010Middle East,2019F2025FUSChina,9.7%,4.5%,3.8%,Share and Growth of Synthetic Rubber Demand,China riving the World emand Growth,8,AAGR of World Synthetic Resin, Fiber and Rubber Demand,5.1%,4.8%,5.2%,World petrochemicals demand are recovering from years before, growth of which outruns the world GDP. China, as a key driver, is expects to hold 1% higher than the world average demand growth by 2025.8.0%China6.0%,World Avg.,China per capita consumption of petrochemicals is catching up with Japan and Europe in the coming years. But 43kg(in equivalent ethylene) still has a long way to go compared with South Korea(89-90kg) and U.S.(70-80kg).,Consumption Still Shows reat Potential,9,1009080706050403020100,0,10000200003000040000500006000070000Consumption per capita of Equivalent Ethylene vs GDP per capita from 1990-2025,80000,Aging Population VS Massive Urbanization,10,Massive urbanization is the best answer to the aging problem. Besides the second baby boom, we will see 170 million new citizens moving to cities by 2030, which means at least 250 billion $ new consumption and 2750 billion $ new investment.,250+ Billion $New Consumption,2750+ Billion $New Investment,2018,2030,170 Million New Citizens110 Million New Elders(aged over 60),3-4 Million Second babies,*estimated,Explosive Growth of E-commerce Boosting the Polymers Demand,11,Billions of online orders and catering services are creating a whole new area for polymers consumption, which is growing by 20-30% each year and increasing the demand of polyolefins by 1-2%.,Fast Delivery and atering Services Boosting the Polymers Demand,50Billion Packages,250-300KT PE/PP,50-60KT PE/PP,20%,20-30%,8 Billion Orders,New Demand from Environmental Protection Business,12,Recycling rate of China has been much higher than the average of the world, which makes it harder to get significantly improved in years, together with waste plastics import ban, increased the virgin PE demand by 0.7-1.0 million ton. While air-pollution control regulation has driven the natural gas pipeline demand by 10%.,Waste Po-ymers Import and omestic Production,0,3000,6000,20152016,KT9000,201720182019Waste Ethyl Polymers Import,New Polymers Replacement Waste Ethyl Polymers Production,AAGR: -12%,0,100,200,300,400,KT500,201720182019New Consumption from Fuel Changing Policy PE Consumption for Pipeline,Natura- Gas Pipe-ine emand for Po-yo-efins,AAGR: 10.3%,EU 30%,China 25%,World 18%,U.S. 9%,Sources: Roland Geyer, Jenna R. Jambeck, Kara Lavender LawRecyc-ing Rates of Non-Fiber P-astics,2015,2030,65,99,145,12%,10%,8.9%,Billion $,A Prosperous Outlook for High Performance Materials,Consumption upgrading promotes the high performance materials demand. A more than 10% growth will be expected in the coming years, and the revenue of this area will reach 145 billion $ by 2030, accounting,for 40-50% of the world.,40,Battery Materials,Construction Chemicals,Engineering Plastics,Medical Plastics,Package Materials,Electronic Materials,EVA &alpha-olefins,Liquid Crystal Materials,High Performance Plastics,20202025Revenue of China High Performance Materials Industry,C1/C2: Large Import Still There,Methanol effective supply cannot fully meet the fast growing MTO and fuel demand, net export approaching 10 MT. Self-sufficiency of ethylene is rocketing, while more than 10MT of equivalent ethylene still has to be imported.,Note:Self-Sufficiency Rate=Production/DemandMethanol Supply and emand of China,0,20,40,60,80,100,2025,MT120,2019MTOFuelOthers,2020Capcacity,88%,89%,88%,%,86,2018Self-Sufficiency,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,2018,MT,2020PEEGSMEOPVC,2025OthersCapcacity,Note:Ethylene Demand including derivatives demand(in ethylene)Ethylene Supply and emand of China,51%,51%,58%,83%,2019Self-Sufficiency,C3/C4: Balance is on the Horizon,0,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,2018,20192020,2025,MT,PP AN PO Phenol/Aceton Butanol/2-ethylhexanol Acrylic,Others,Capca,city,77%,82%,83%,93%,Self-Sufficiency,Expanding propylene capacity and demand are getting near the balance point, while PP still needs import; Not only the large integrated projects but also the BDH has changed the whole landscape for butadiene.,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,2018,2025,MT8,20192020BRSBRSBCsNBR,ABSOthers,Capcacity,73%,75%,107%,97%,Self-Sufficiency,Butadiene Supply and Demand of hina,Note:BD Demand including derivatives demand(in BD),Note:Propylene Demand including derivatives demand(in Propylene)Propylene Supply and Demand of hina,Aromatics: Nearing the Overcapacity,103%62%55%40%,0%,20%,40%,60%,80%,100%,0,10,20,30,40,50,2018,2019,CapcacityDemand,20202025Self-Sufficiency(RHS),PX Supply and Demand of hina,0,5,10,15,20,25,30,2018,2019,2020,2025,Extensive investment on PX has dramatically change the outlook for it, balanced or even overcapacity is expected by 2025. For benzene, import wont be absent, but potential increase of the capacity utilization clouded the market.MTMT60120%35,Capcacity,82%,85%,90%,88%,Self-SufficiencySMNitrobenzeneCPLPhenolOthersBenzene Supply and Demand of hina,Balance across the Spectrum,Polymers supply still cannot meet the demand by 2025, while some, especially the aromatics, will be facing the overcapacity pressure.,-20000,-15000,-10000,-5000,0,5000,10000,15000,20000,-100000,-75000,-50000,-25000,0,25000,50000,75000,100000,Methanol,Ethyl ene,LDPE,HDPE,LLDPE,EG,Propylene,PP,AN,PO,Acetone,n-butanol,2-ethyl hexanol,Butadiene,BR,SBR,PX,PTA,PET,Benzene,SM,Phenol,CPL,C1,C2,C3C4Balance of China Major Petrochemicals in 2025,Aromatics,000 ton,ProductionDemandBalance(RHS),India18: 3.0MTA,Africa,18: 5.7MTA25: 7.8MTA,rends and Challenges,A Further Opening-up Market,20,A series of measures are implemented to reduce the market access barrier, which has attracted not only the domestic private investors but also the foreign investors, like Saudi Aramco, SABIC to join the game.,9%,11%,Private Investors 25%,Foreign Investors 13%,Ethylene Capacity Share 2018(inner circle) and 2025,Ethylene,26%,7%,Private Investors 50%,Foreign Investors 7%,PX Capacity Share 2018(inner circle) and 2025,PX,Remove restrictions on wholly foreign funded petrochemical companies,Remove restrictions on crude oil import of private companies,Introduce mixed ownership to SOEs,Implement negative list for market access,Cut items requiring government review by 30%,Cut taxes and administrative fees Lower the VAT from 17% to 13%,A More Diversified Market,In 2019, Zhejiang and Hengli PC will bring the aromatics version of OTC on board, and ExxonMobil will bring the olefins version to Huizhou, China years later. Meanwhile the first ethane VLEC will arrive in China and the first ACO unit gets into production.,China Ethylene Capacity Share by Process 2025,China Propylene Capacity Share by Process 2025,Ethylene- Based 26%,Coal-based 74%,Ethylene Glycol,China Ethylene Glycol Capacity Share by Process 202521,Naphtha Cracking 69%,ACO 1%,DCC 1%,MTO 5%,CTO 14%,Ethane Cracking 5%,LPG Cracking 3%,OTC 2%,Ethylene,FCC 22%,Naphtha Cracking 37%,CTP 3%,MTP 1%,MTO 5%,CTO 15%,PDH 17%,Propylene,0%,10%,20%,30%,40%,50%,60%,70%,80%,90%,-200,-150,-100,-50,0,50,100,150,200,250,300,2000,2005,2010,2015,2020,2025,2030,Margin Index,Self-sufficiency Index,Profitability Facing Temporary Downward Pressure,22,Overcapacity of some products will bring downward pressure to the overall profitability. As the rebalance goes on, the self-sufficiency will decline again and the profitability will get rebound sometime after 2025.350100%,Margin Index and Self-sufficiency Index of China Petrochemical Market,2026-2027,2027-2028,2017-2018,Rebalance Period,Golden Age,Another Cycle?,Consolidation on the Way,23,Stricter environment regulations and fierce competition are forcing the disadvantages out of the games. Rapid decreasing small companies/units and climbing concentration ratio indicate the on-going consolidation.,concentration ratio+27%,-18%,201624500,201723300,201821300,201525200Numbers of enterprisesabove designated size,Takeaways,24,As the largest producer and consumer, China petrochemical market to maintain a steady annual demand growth of 6-7% and a capacity growth of 9-10% before 2025.Opportunitiesareemergingfrommassiveurbanization,consumptionupgrading,infrastructure construction, e-commerce, environmental protection business and further opening up.China will take more imports from the Middle East and U.S., as the polymers gap of China will be widening up by 5 million tons by 2025.Steady economy and huge demand will help the market to get rebalanced quickly. And a rebound is expected sometime after 2025.,THANKS,