上市险企“开门红”落地深度分析：续期业务彰显公司底蕴，聚焦保障类产品放量节奏及代理人留存情况.pdf

Table_MainInfo Table_Title / Table_Summary 20183130.94 YoY-0.53%403.42 YoY+16.45% +1. 20171342. +3.-21.33% 24.44% 21.47% 9.95% 201730.23% 55.96% 39.73% -21.78% -10%1.10 12. 16 121.17M1 22%2.17Q1 / 48%/50%94.1% 16Q1 32%1. 2.83.88%49.04% 150%1.2. 3. 134Table_CompanyFinance 2016A 2017E 2018E 2016A 2017E 2018E 67.02 34.88 43.95 49.67 1.92 1.52 1.35 52.23 41.50 50.15 57.87 1.26 1.04 0.90 38.61 27.14 32.16 35.23 1.42 1.20 1.10 Table_Invest Table_PicQuote -4%17%38%59%80%2017/22017/32017/42017/52017/62017/72017/82017/92017/102017/112017/122018/1Table_Trend % 1M 3M 12M -12.68% -10.34% 61.31% -4.75% -4.95% 47.35% Table_IndustryMarket 6 24943 16295 16.24 2.11 17230 1003 % 90.06 Table_Report 2017- +18.16% +30% +75%2018-01-26 - 12+22% +17% 182018-01-18 20182017134 3 2018-01-08 Table_Author S0550511080001 S0550117080040 (021)20361183 geyxnesc 13761633787 13761633787 / 2018-02-14 2 / 22Table_PageTop 1. 2018 . 3 2. . 4 2.1. .4 2.2. .6 2.3. .7 2.4. .8 3. 2018 1 0.53%. 9 3.1. “ ”+ + 51% .9 3.2. 2016 12 .12 3.3. .13 3.4. .15 3.5. .16 3.6. .18 4. . 18 5. . 19 3 / 22Table_PageTop 1. 2018 2 12 20183130.94 YoY-0.53%403.42 YoY+16.45% 2018 1-21.3% 20.7% 23.0% 9.9% 2017 30.2% 34.3% 38.7%-21.8% 1. 20171342. +3.1 -4 0 %-3 0 %-2 0 %-10 %0%10 %2 0 %3 0 %40%50 %20 1 7 1 20 1 7 4 20 1 7 7 20 1 7 10 20 1 8 11 1 2017H 1 0 . 1 8 %4 9 . 6 0 % 5 1 . 3 0 %2 2 . 9 6 %5 2 . 1 7 %5 9 . 2 5 %6 2 . 8 8 %6 8 . 8 1 %- 2 1 .3 %2 1 .5 %2 4 . 4 %9 . 9 %- 3 0 %- 2 0 %- 1 0 %0%1 0 %2 0 %3 0 %4 0 %5 0 %6 0 %7 0 %8 0 %2017H 2017H 2018 1: 4 / 22Table_PageTop 2. 2.1. 2017 10 12017134 1. 5 2. 20% 3.2017 6 1+41 2016/3/18 201622 1. 460% 52. 2016/9/6 201676 1.160% 18 -40140% 41 -60 120% 61 2. 3% 3. 2017 1 1 122016/9/6 2016199 2016/12/30 2016113 50% 2017/5/16 2017134 1. 5 2. 20% 3.2017/5/19 2017136 “ ” “” 5 / 22Table_PageTop 2017/06/02 1+4 2017/12/29 2017283 “ ”20181. 5 20% 2. 3% 3. 3 5 10 4. 45.6. 20182 2017 % , 1 6 1 1 . 7 , 3 1 . 6 6 %, 9 4 8 . 5 , 2 6 . 1 1 %, 8 5 2 . 6 , 4 1 . 6 0 %, 4 7 4 . 1 , 4 4 . 0 7 %, 4 0 3 . 4 , 2 3 . 0 8 %, 3 8 5 . 8 , 3 3 . 0 2 %, 2 0 5 . 6 , 2 4 . 1 2 %, 1 6 9 . 5 , 1 5 . 4 6 %, 1 3 4 . 7 , 3 3 . 7 2 %, 1 1 3 . 0 , 4 7 . 5 3 %, 7 7 . 6 , 2 2 . 5 5 %, 7 6 . 4 , 6 1 . 7 1 %, 5 1 . 9 , 3 9 . 7 9 %, 0 . 1 , 1 . 8 1 %0%1 0 %2 0 %3 0 %4 0 %5 0 %6 0 %7 0 %0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 , 0 0 0 1 , 2 0 0 1 , 4 0 0 1 , 6 0 0 1 , 8 0 0 6 / 22Table_PageTop 3 4 134 520%2.2. 2017134 20182017283+-21.33% 24.44% 21.47% 9.95% 201730.23% 55.96% 39.73% -21.78%-10% -20%-30% -40% 20185 2018 1 6 2018 1 - 10%- 20%- 30%- 40%- 4 5 %- 4 0 %- 3 5 %- 3 0 %- 2 5 %- 2 0 %- 1 5 %- 1 0 %- 5 %0%2 1 . 5 %1 0 . 0 %2 4 . 4 %- 2 1 . 3 %- 3 0 . 0 %- 2 0 . 0 %- 1 0 .0 %0 .0 %1 0 . 0 %2 0 . 0 %3 0 . 0 % 7 / 22Table_PageTop 2.3. = * = *= * + 20182017806.94 22.77%30% 50.18% 4 pct.2017 201729.1% 37.8% 9.4% 3.7%88.80% 87.08% 65.72% 78.81%20172837 8 / 22Table_PageTop 8 9 2017Q1-Q3 2 9 . 1 %3 7 . 8 %9 . 4 %3 . 7 %0 . 0 %5 .0 %1 0 . 0 %1 5 . 0 %2 0 . 0 %2 5 . 0 %3 0 .0 %3 5 . 0 %4 0 . 0 %2016A - 2 0 1 7 Q31 2 ,4 3 8 7 ,1 8 9 6 ,6 8 3 6 ,8 6 2 -2 , 0 0 04 , 0 0 06 , 0 0 08 , 0 0 01 0 , 0 0 01 2 , 0 0 01 4 , 0 0 0- 2017 Q310 2017 11 4 1 . 7 % 4 4 . 1 % 4 0 . 7 %4 7 .5 % 4 6 . 2 % 5 0 . 2 %1 0 . 8 % 9 . 7 % 9 . 2 %0%1 0 %2 0 %3 0 %4 0 %5 0 %6 0 %7 0 %8 0 %9 0 %1 0 0 %2015 2016 20178 8 . 8 0 %6 5 . 7 2 %8 7 .0 8 %7 8 . 8 1 %5 0 %6 0 %7 0 %8 0 %9 0 %1 0 0 %2 0 1 6 H 2 0 1 7 H2.4. = + = +201752% 59% 63% 69%2017 14%2017 10.18%49.60% 51.30% 22.96%15% 9 / 22Table_PageTop 2 2017 712 13 2017H 5 2 .1 7 %5 9 . 2 5 %6 2 . 8 8 %6 8 . 8 1 %3 0 %4 0 %5 0 %6 0 %7 0 %8 0 %2 0 1 6 H 2 0 1 7 H1 0 . 1 8 %4 9 . 6 0 %5 1 . 3 0 %2 2 . 9 6 %0 . 0 0 %1 0 . 0 0 %2 0 . 0 0 %3 0 . 0 0 %4 0 . 0 0 %5 0 .0 0 %6 0 .0 0 %3. 2018 1 0.53% -21.33% 24.44%21.47% 9.95% 2017 30.23% 55.96% 39.73% -21.78% 3.1. “ ”1152.22 2017 39.73%21.47% 4 2018 10 / 22Table_PageTop 1. “ ”10 1 3590% 3 2017 10 1 -2018 1 31 35 e 2018/01 2017 2017/10 2017/12 2017 2017/10 2017/12 2017/10 18 2017/12 2017/10 18 2017/12 2017 2017/10 2017/12 2017 2017/10 2017/12 2017/10 2017/12 2017/10 2017/12 2017/10 2017/12 2017/10 C 2017/11 2017/10 B 2017/11 2017/10 2017/11 2017 2017/10 2018 2017/11 2017 2017/10 2018 2017/11 2017 2017/10 2017/11 2017 2017/10 2017/11 2017 2017/10 E 2017/10 2. 11.8% 52.1%2017 1 52%46% 2018 1 52.1% 14 pct. 66% 11 / 22Table_PageTop 14 2017 1 15 2018 1 46%52%2%33%66%1%16 2018 1 17 2017H 2 2 . 2 %- 1 1 . 8 %5 2 . 1 %4 . 4 %2 2 . 0 %- 2 0 . 0 %- 1 0 . 0 %0 . 0 %1 0 . 0 %2 0 . 0 %3 0 . 0 %4 0 . 0 %5 0 . 0 %6 0 . 0 %,91%, 6 6 . 2 %, 2 . 7 %, 1 9 . 3 %, 2 . 8 %, 1 . 1 %, 7 . 5 %, 0 . 3 %3. 201712,438/ /7,189/ / 6,683/ / 6,862/ /18Q1 NBV 8% NBV 35%5% NBV 65% 15% 2018NBV 2017Q1-Q4 60%46%35%30% 20%2016 Q1-Q4 30.50%61.99% 34.57% 47.95% 26.16% 25.78% 26.17%21.92% 2017 28.25%51.84% 49.83% NBV Margin 12 / 22Table_PageTop Margin18 2017 NBV 19 NBV Margin 20 17Q1 20 17Q2 20 17Q3 20 17Q40.0 0%10 .00%20 .00%30 .00%40 .00%50 .00%60 .00%20 17Q1 20 17Q2 20 17Q3 20 17Q43.2. 2018 186.37 9.95% 2017-21.78% 2016 12 20172017Q1 20% /48%/50% 94.1% 2016Q1 32%67.8% 13 pct. 130% 9.95% 2018 150 58% 3050 -20%20% 2018NBV 45% 15% 20%300 150+58% 13 / 22Table_PageTop 20 2017 0501 0 01 5 02 0 02 5 01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122016 2017 201821 2017Q147% 222017Q1 64% - 5 0 . 4 0 %4 7 .5 1 %- 9 5 . 7 5 %- 1 2 0 %- 1 0 0 %- 8 0 %- 6 0 %- 4 0 %- 2 0 %0%2 0 %4 0 %6 0 %4 2 . 9 %4 9 .8 %5 4 . 7 %5 7 . 6 %6 3 . 6 %6 8 . 8 % 6 7 . 8 %0 . 0 %1 0 . 0 %2 0 . 0 %3 0 . 0 %4 0 . 0 %5 0 . 0 %6 0 . 0 %7 0 . 0 %8 0 . 0 %2 0 1 6 Q 1 2 0 1 6 H 2 0 1 6 Q 3 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 Q 1 2 0 1 7 H 2 0 1 7 Q 33.3. 20181,268 -21.33%4172017 603.14 17.4%10.18% 49.6% 51.3%22.96% 14 / 22Table_PageTop 231 0 . 1 8 %4 9 . 6 0 % 5 1 . 3 0 %2 2 . 9 6 %5 2 . 1 7 %5 9 . 2 5 %6 2 . 8 8 %6 8 . 8 1 %- 2 1 .3 %2 1 .5 %2 4 . 4 %9 . 9 %- 3 0 %- 2 0 %- 1 0 %0%1 0 %2 0 %3 0 %4 0 %5 0 %6 0 %7 0 %8 0 %2017H 2017H 2018 1: 182018 100 500 2 24 2012 2012 40 80 8 30 100% 1 100% 3 3 20% 110 20% 3 18 -18 - - 18 -18 - 15 / 22Table_PageTop 2018 20162016 4.025%21 2016 1 7 26098% 20182 2014A 2016 20183.4. 1. 20172018 2017H 51.3% 20182.2017 88.6%20182 3 2.018%24 25 0.0 %10 .0%20 .0%30 .0%40 .0%50 .0%60 .0%70 .0%80 .0%20 15 - 1Q 20 16 - 1Q 20 17 - 1Q50 .0%55 .0%60 .0%65 .0%70 .0%75 .0%80 .0%85 .0%90 .0%95 .0%20 13A 20 15A 20 17 16 / 22Table_PageTop 3.5. 1 NBV Margin2 34 1. 2. 26 1.2.2017134 1.2. 3.4.83.88% 49.04%150% 2300 3000 1002017 12 12 -2018 2 28 17 / 22Table_PageTop 19 29 20 303.5%2018 200 1002017 8%-20%27 5 2017 10 20 10 20 18 -17% -16% -20% -18% 20 -17% -16% -19% -17% 25 -16% -15% -16% -15% 30 -16% -15% -14% -14% 35 -16% -14% -13% -12% 40 -15% -14% -11% -10% 45 -15% -15% -10% -9% 50 -15% -15% -9% -8% 55 -15% - 8% - 28 29 A2017 A 2017 2017 18 / 22Table_PageTop 30 3.6. 1.2. 3.20184. 274.27129.15 15.64% 18.20% 1 11.60% 20170.23% 201717431 (1 0 )(5 )051015202530011223342 0 1 4 -0 1 2 0 1 5 -0 1 2 0 1 6 -0 1 2 0 1 7 -0 1 2 0 1 8 -0 1: : ( ) : ( )Wind 19 / 22Table_PageTop 32 33 - 2%6%2%1%12%19%12% 12% 12%11% 10%9%18%-5 %0%5%1 0 %1 5 %2 0 %2 5 %2 0 1 7 -0 1 2 0 1 7 -0 4 2 0 1 7 -0 7 2 0 1 7 -1 0 2 0 1 8 -0 1: :70%27%3%5. 1.2. 3.18PEV 1300501 34 PEV 0.0 00.5 01.0 01.5 02.0 02.5 03.0 02012-05-24 2014-05-24 2016-05-24P/E V P - EV P - EV 20 / 22Table_PageTop 6 A 2018/2/13 EV 1YrVNB 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 67.02 34.88 43.95 49.67 61.78 2.78 3.67 4.40 5.72 52.23 41.50 50.15 58.87 72.22 3.35 4.01 4.73 6.44 38.61 27.14 32.16 35.23 42.47 2.10 3.19 3.83 5.06 26.54 23.07 26.30 28.24 33.78 1.74 2.36 2.60 3.11 P/EV 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 67.02 1.92 1.52 1.35 1.08 11.56 6.29 3.94 0.92 52.23 1.26 1.04 0.89 0.72 3.20 0.52 -1.40 -3.11 38.61 1.42 1.20 1.10 0.91 5.46 2.02 0.88 -0.76 26.54 1.15 1.01 0.94 0.79 1.99 0.10 -0.65 -2.32 EPS 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 67.02 3.50 4.02 5.06 5.91 20.98 24.25 28.53 34.03 52.23 1.58 1.84 2.44 3.06 18.95 20.69 22.80 25.21 38.61 1.33 1.50 1.76 2.18 14.54 15.78 17.81 19.96 26.54 0.66 1.09 1.39 1.65 10.74 11.71 12.98 14.32 P/E 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E 67.02 19.15 16.67 13.24 11.33 3.19 2.76 2.35 1.97 52.23 33.06 28.40 21.42 17.09 2.76 2.52 2.29 2.07 38.61 29.03 25.74 21.94 17.71 2.66 2.45 2.17 1.93 26.54 40.21 24.45 19.07 16.06 2.47 2.27 2.05 1.85 21 / 22Table_PageTop / 2017 “ ”R3 A BAA ABS“ ”6 15% 6 5% 15% 6 -5% 5% 6 5% 15% 6 15% 6 6 6 22 / 22Table_PageTop nesc 400-600-0686 6666 130119 28 D 100033 729 200127 1 2 24D 518000 021-20361100 13621693507 yuanyingnesc 021-20361267 13761867866 wangyinesc 021-20361111 13761500624 wangbonesc 021-20361229 15221688595 liyinnesc 021-20361106 18601722659 yangtaonesc 021-20361112 13120728563 liuruinesc 021-20361121 13564972909 ruanminnesc 021-20361101 13641900351 lizynesc 021-20361102 13120758587 lilqnesc 021-20361258 18221628116 qijiannesc 010-58034553 18515018255 lihangnesc 010-58034557 18501954588 yinlulunesc 010-58034555 13701194494 wenzcnesc 010-58034561 15811140346 xiayirannesc 010-58034563 18501944669 zengygnesc 010-58034559 13439651862 jintingnesc 0755-33975865 18664579712 qiuxxnesc 0755-33975865 18938029743 liu_xuannesc 0755-33975865 15999555916 wangzmnesc 0755-33975865 13662669201 linyqnesc 0755-33975865 18682251183 zhouyqnesc