中国铁塔：5G加速，基建王者先行.pdf

| 2018 12 13 00788.HK 5G 1.8 / 12 10 + 5G 5G 2018-2020 31 /57 /88 EBITDA 413 /463 /528 EV/EBITDA 1.8 1.58 2019 EV/EBITDA 10 5G 12 5G 2019 5G 5G 5G EBITDA 1-9 EBITDA 317 5% EBITDA 59.1% 17 0.3 17 1.44 1.49 70% 5G + 2018 4 25 14 30 60 2018-2020 5308 5.6 3.2 5G 5G 5G 5G 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 56,045 68,814 71,209 78,960 88,132 yoy % 536.2 22.6 3.7 10.9 11.6 76.0 1,943 3,071 5,748 8,822 yoy % 102.1 2,441.1 58.1 87.1 53.5 EPS / 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 % 0.1 1.5 2.4 4.2 6.1 P/E - - 64.8 34.6 22.5 P/B - - 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.28 ( ) 165,561.11 ( ) 129,344.62 (%) 26.5 30 ( ) 330.34 S0680512050001 dingtingtinggszq 1 00788.HK 5G 2018-08-08 -32% -16% 0% 16% 2018-08 2018-12 300 2018 12 13 P.2 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 39565 30522 35761 33142 34452 56045 68814 71209 78960 88132 17249 7852 13268 10560 11914 55997 68665 71209 78960 88132 0 0 0 0 0 48 149 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50927 60950 60953 64710 69172 22313 22637 22475 22556 22516 3 33 18 26 22 0 0 0 0 0 272103 292126 304406 306249 307144 5012 5179 6211 6637 7247 0 0 0 0 0 259380 269068 279118 289543 300358 106 2685 4045 7613 11712 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 50 50 12723 23058 25288 16705 6787 0 0 0 0 0 311668 322648 340167 339390 341596 106 2685 4095 7663 11762 171568 150041 160805 155423 158114 30 742 1024 1916 2941 37253 95260 66257 80758 73507 76 1943 3071 5748 8822 39840 31906 35873 33890 34881 0 0 0 0 0 94475 22875 58675 40775 49725 76 1943 3071 5748 8822 14548 45107 49963 52133 52758 EBITDA 32655 40357 41313 46346 52753 12280 43793 48172 50581 51087 EPS / 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 2268 1314 1791 1553 1672 186116 195148 210768 207556 210872 129345 129345 129345 129345 129345 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E -3793 -1850 1221 6969 15791 0 0 0 0 0 % 536.2 22.6 3.7 10.9 11.6 125552 127495 130566 136314 145136 % 221.9 52.2 32.9 38.9 33.0 0 0 0 0 0 % 102.1 2441.1 58.1 87.1 53.5 311668 322643 341334 343870 356008 EBITDA % 58.3 58.8 58.0 58.7 59.9 % 0.1 2.8 4.3 7.3 10.0 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E ROE % 0.1 1.5 2.4 4.2 6.1 27594 34935 36508 40594 46880 ROIC 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.6 76 1943 3071 5748 8822 27585 32642 33295 34601 37865 % 59.7 60.5 61.7 60.4 59.2 -5806 -7005 -6406 -6705 -6555 % 148.2 153.1 161.4 152.3 145.3 0 0 0 0 0 23.1 20.3 22.2 21.3 21.8 5739 7355 6547 6951 6749 23.1 20.3 22.2 21.3 21.8 0 0 0 0 0 -46023 -51915 -56652 -77369 -93011 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 -46085 -52001 -49043 -50522 -49783 5.5 6.3 5.9 6.1 6.0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 62 86 74 80 77 / 22025 7583 25560 34067 47485 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 46612 131479 89046 110262 99654 0.16 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.27 20887 42923 31905 37414 34660 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.77 0.82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1536 2874 4411 P/E - - 64.8 34.6 22.5 -3700 -80973 -96926 -116483 -91240 P/B - - 1.5 1.5 1.4 3596 -9397 5416 -2708 1354 EV/EBITDA - - 9.2 8.2 7.2 2018 12 13 P.3 1. . 5 2. . 7 3. . 9 3.1. +1 +35% . 9 3.2. 5G . 12 3.3. 1.42 . 13 4. 5G . 14 4.1. 1.5 . 14 4.2. . 14 5. AMT . 15 6. . 17 6.1. . 17 6.2. . 19 . 20 1 . 5 2 . 6 3 2017 . 6 4 2015-2017 . 7 5 2015-2018Q1 EBITDA . 7 6 . 7 7 97% . 7 8 . 7 9 . 8 10 2015-2018Q1 . 8 11 EBITDA . 8 12 . 9 13 2018 . 10 14 . 10 15 . 11 16 . 11 17 2018 . 12 18 . 12 19 . 13 20 2018 1.42 . 13 21 . 14 22 . 14 23 2015-2018Q1 . 14 24 AMT . 15 25 . 16 26 . 16 2018 12 13 P.4 27 EBITDA . 16 28 EBITDA . 16 29 AMT 10 . 17 30 AMT 2008-2018 . 17 31 . 18 32 . 18 33 2018-2022 .