如何看待2019年社融？.pdf

H e a de r T a b l e _U s e r 1 199170346 1 186176669 173287220 1 176970497 1 H e a de r T a b l e _S t o c k 股票代码 投资评级 评级变化 行业 c o de H e a de r T a b l e _E xc e l H e a de r T a bl e _S t a t e m e nt C om pa ny T a b l e _ T i t l e 20 1 9 Table_Summary 2018 1 2.2 71% 13 2 3 2018 117 2017 35 2018 6.5% 15.3% 2019 1 10 2014 2 3 4 2 2.2 2.5 23% 26% 29% 18% 2019 1 2018 12 2019 2 3 2019 10.56% 11.32% 10.2% 11 9.9% 2019 2018 2 2 3 5 10 3 Table_ReportDate 2018 12 26 Table_Autho r 021- 63 3258 88* 6005 x uejun orien t s e c . c o m . c n S 086 0515 1000 02 021- 63 3258 88* 6073 j ia ng c hen long ori ent s e c . c o m . c n S 086 0517 1000 04 Table_Contacter 021- 63 3258 88- 60 44 c henz hiy ior ien t s ec . c o m . c n 021- 63 3258 88- 61 1 1 w angliangor ien t s ec . c o m . c n Table_Report 2018-12- 21 T M LF 2018-12- 20 2018-11- 09 2018-10- 23 90 2018-09- 28 2018-07- 23 2018-06- 08 2018-05- 04 2018-04- 12 2018-04- 04 2019 2 目录 . 3 1 . 3 2 . 4 3 . 6 20 1 9 . 7 1 . 8 2 . 9 3 . 9 4 . 10 2019 3 . 11 . 13 2019 3 2018 2019 2019 1 63% 2.2 54% 56.6% 2.3 1.5 67.9% Q3 0.8 1 2017 2016 2 10 2 1.2 0.6 1-10 -20% 1-2% 3 71% 13 1 2 Wind Wind 40 50 60 70 80 90 09-3 09-10 10-5 10-12 11-7 12-2 12-9 13-4 13-11 14-6 15-1 15-8 16-3 16-10 17-5 17-12 18-7 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 09-6 10-1 10-8 11-3 11-10 12-5 12-12 13-7 14-2 14-9 15-4 15-11 16-6 17-1 17-8 18-3 18-10 2019 4 3 4 Wind Wind 5 / Wind 2 Q2 1 R007 2.99% DR007 2.71% R007 2.68% DR007 2.60% Q3 1.5% 1.7% Q4 2% 2017 1.33% 1.5% 2012-2016 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2001-03 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-07 2006-08 2007-09 2008-10 2009-11 2010-12 2012-01 2013-02 2014-03 2015-04 2016-05 2017-06 2018-07 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 12 12.5 13 13.5 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 2014-07 2014-09 2014-11 2015-01 2015-03 2015-05 2015-07 2015-09 2015-11 2016-01 2016-03 2016-05 2016-07 2016-09 2016-11 2017-01 2017-03 2017-05 2017-07 2017-09 2017-11 2018-01 2018-03 2018-05 2018-07 2018-09 2019 5 2009 2011 20 2012 2014 15 2016 22 1-2 2008-2009 2012 2015 2017 2019 6 SHIBOR % 7 % Wind Wind 8 % 9 Wind Wind 5-7 4000 8-10 2500 / 11 2000 -1904 -2675 1 2 3 4 5 6 SHIBOR SHIBOR3 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.2 7 7 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 10-3 10-9 11-3 11-9 12-3 12-9 13-3 13-9 14-3 14-9 15-3 15-9 16-3 16-9 17-3 17-9 18-3 18-9 0 2 4 6 8 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2007-02 2008-01 2008-12 2009-11 2010-10 2011-09 2012-08 2013-07 2014-06 2015-05 2016-04 2017-03 2018-02 / 2019 6 1 12.1% 14.7% 2 11.7% 12.5% 2016 15% Q2 1-3 11.5% 5 12% 3 11.7% 10 11 % Wind Wind 3 1 1 6.78% 2017 8.48% 17 6 10% 10% 2 2018 2018 117 1152 2017 35 2016 56 12 % Wind 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 0 50 100 150 200 250 15-3 15-6 15-9 15-12 16-3 16-6 16-9 16-12 17-3 17-6 17-9 17-12 18-3 18-6 18-9 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 2003-12 2004-11 2005-10 2006-09 2007-08 2008-07 2009-06 2010-05 2011-04 2012-03 2013-02 2014-01 2014-12 2015-11 2016-10 2017-09 2018-08 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2015-03 2015-05 2015-07 2015-09 2015-11 2016-01 2016-03 2016-05 2016-07 2016-09 2016-11 2017-01 2017-03 2017-05 2017-07 2017-09 2017-11 2018-01 2018-03 2018-05 2018-07 2018-09 2018-11 2019 7 A 11 6.5% 15.3% 2