2018年世界投资报告.pdf

UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENTINVESTMENT AND NEW INDUSTRIAL POLICIES2018WORLD INVESTMENT REPORTNew York and Geneva, 2018UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENTINVESTMENT AND NEW INDUSTRIAL POLICIES2018WORLD INVESTMENT REPORTiiWorld Investment Report 2018 Investment and New Industrial PoliciesNOTEUNITED NATIONS PUBLICATIONSales No. E.18.II.D.4ISBN 978-92-1-112926-7eISBN 978-92-1-045178-9ISSN 1020-2218Copyright United Nations, 2018All rights reservedPrinted at United Nations, GenevaThe UNCTAD Investment and Enterprise Division is the focal point in the United Nations System for investment and enterprise development. As a global centre of excellence, the Division conducts leading-edge research and policy analysis, provides technical assistance to 160 member States and regional groupings, and builds international consensus among the 196 member States of the organization. Its mission is to promote investment and enterprise for sustainable and inclusive development.The Division provides, among others,The copyright of the material in this publication rests with UNCTAD. It may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement is requested, together with a reference to UNCTAD and this Report. A copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint should be sent to the UNCTAD Secretariat (e-mail: diaeinfounctad). Two flagship products:World Investment Report World Investment ForumSix key policy frameworks:Investment Policy Framework for Sustainable DevelopmentAction Plan for Investing in the SDGsEntrepreneurship Policy FrameworkReform Package for the International Investment RegimeGlobal Action Menu for Investment FacilitationAccounting Development ToolSeven core services: Investment databases and research National and international investment policiesInvestment promotionResponsible investmentBusiness facilitationEntrepreneurship development Accounting and reportingInformation about these products, frameworks and services, as well as the publications of the Division, can be found free of charge at UNCTADs website (unctad/diae) or the organizations investment policy hub ( investmentpolicyhub.unctad).iiiPrefacePREFACEGlobal flows of foreign direct investment fell by 23 per cent in 2017. Cross-border investment in developed and transition economies dropped sharply, while growth was near zero in developing economies. With only a very modest recovery predicted for 2018, this negative trend is a long-term concern for policymakers worldwide, especially for developing countries, where international investment is indispensable for sustainable industrial development.This troubling global investment picture underscores the importance of a conducive global investment environment, characterized by open, transparent and non-discriminatory investment policies. The theme chapter of the report shows that over 100 countries have adopted industrial development strategies in recent years. New types of industrial policies have emerged, responding to the opportunities and challenges associated with a new industrial revolution. The report presents options for investment policy tools in this new environment. I commend this years World Investment Report as a timely contribution to an important debate in the international investment and development community. Antnio GuterresSecretary-General of the United NationsWe are at the dawn of a fourth industrial revolution, propelled by frontier technologies and robotization advances that make production better, cheaper and faster than ever before. This new industrial revolution offers enormous opportunities for economic growth and sustainable development with potential benefits on a scale that is difficult to imagine. New technologies promise possibilities of industrial upgrading and leapfrogging. Cheaper transportation and communication, coupled with more efficient logistics, can also help developing countries better link to global value chains. Some of the most advanced emerging economies are already on the verge of becoming global technological leaders in a number of industries. Yet, the new economic age and the accelerating pace of technological innovation could also result in serious economic disruption and more inequality. Existing investment patterns, for instance, might go through profound and far-reaching changes, in terms of both flows and content. Last years World Investment Report highlighted the emerging structural impact of the digital economy on foreign direct investment. In this context, developing countries, and least developed countries in particular, face considerable challenges. They range from structural constraints, such as the lack of adequate infrastructure and scarce access to finance, to strategic issues. Offshoring and relocation towards destinations offering cheaper domestic labour become less relevant in a world of increasingly automated manufacturing. At the same time, improving living conditions requires creating jobs, which in turn still relies heavily on manufacturing. Developing countries with small markets face additional pressure on their investment policies as companies increasingly look for investment locations offering the best conditions to deliver new and high-quality products rapidly, close to the customer and through flexible production processes. Challenges are particularly pronounced in Africa. Despite a period of strong economic growth, the level of economic transformation has been low. The share of manufacturing in the GDP of African countries is small, and it has further declined or stagnated over the past decade. However, manufacturing has the potential of creating a large number of jobs in the formal sector and therefore raising living conditions. Confronted with an altering global economic landscape and deep structural reconfiguration, governments around the globe have invigorated their industrial policies in recent years. There is a growing consensus that structural transformation does not occur by itself, but rather requires a proactive policy that facilitates a transition towards new sectors and activities with higher productivity and more value added, while fostering sustainable and inclusive development. ivWorld Investment Report 2018 Investment and New Industrial PoliciesFOREWORDAs they pursue multifaceted objectives, new industrial policies have become more complex and intertwined, wielding multiple instruments, from trade to education. Central to these industrial policies is foreign investment. Investment builds and upgrades industries. It connects to international markets. It also drives essential innovation and competitiveness. All in all, the current debate is less about whether governments should intervene, but rather how. Industrial policies and accompanying investment policies need to revolve around a clearly articulated vision but, at the same time, they have to contain practical and detailed recommendations, a clear timeline for action and a division of responsibilities among the public and private sectors. Against this background, the World Investment Report 2018 aims to provide a better understanding of the interaction between new industrial policies and investment policies. It provides an overview of industrial policy models based on an inventory of industrial policies adopted by more than 100 countries over the last decade and the role of investment policies within each model. The Report illustrates how investment policy instruments are used differently across various models and suggests ways to improve the impact of industrial policy through more effective and efficient investment policies. Finally, the Report offers recommendations to update existing investment policy instruments, including investment incentives, special economic zones, investment facilitation and foreign investment screening mechanisms. Building from this Report, UNCTAD will host a discussion of the interface between industrial and investment policies at its 6thWorld Investment Forum, which will take place in Geneva on 2226 October 2018. Together, let us work towards finding solutions to ensure that economic change does not create new hardships, but benefits that are widely shared and lead to a better life for all. vAcknowledgementsMukhisa KituyiSecretary-General of UNCTADviWorld Investment Report 2018 Investment and New Industrial PoliciesACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe World Investment Report 2018 was prepared by a team led by James X. Zhan. The team members included Richard Bolwijn, Bruno Casella, Hamed El Kady, Kumi Endo, Thomas van Giffen, Klmn Kalotay, Joachim Karl, Hee Jae Kim, Isya Kresnadi, Guoyong Liang, Anthony Miller, Shin Ohinata, Diana Rosert, William Speller, Astrit Sulstarova, Claudia Trentini, Elisabeth Tuerk, Joerg Weber and Kee Hwee Wee.Research support and inputs were provided by Jorun Baumgartner, Juan Carlos Castillo, Tiffany Grabski, Josse Jakobsen, Kim Kampel, Melinda Kuritzky, Sergey Ripinsky, Stella Sakellaridou, Stefanie Schacherer, Sylvie Somerville, Ilan Strauss, Paul Wessendorp and Linli Yu. Contributions were also made by Marta Kolasinska, Ventzislav Kotetzov, Oktawian Kuc, Mathabo Le Roux, Eduardo Lins, Abraham Negash and Michelle Ngo.Statistical assistance was provided by Bradley Boicourt, Mohamed Chiraz Baly and Lizanne Martinez.The manuscript was edited with the assistance of Caroline Lambert and copy-edited by Lise Lingo. Pablo Cortizo designed the charts, maps and infographics; he and Laurence Duchemin typeset the report. Production of the Report was supported by Elisabeth Anodeau-Mareschal, Nathalie Eulaerts, Rosalina Goyena, Jovan Licina, Sivanla Sikounnavong and Katia Vieu.The report benefited from extensive advice from Harsha Singh on chapter IV. At various stages of preparation, in particular during the expert meetings organized to discuss drafts, the team received comments and inputs from these experts: Willy Alfaro, Azar Aliyev, Antonio Andreoni, Nathalie Bernasconi, Sjoerd Beugelsdijk, Jonathan Bonnitcha, Damien Charlotin, Manjiao Chi, Xiaolan Fu, Angel Gonzalez-Sanz, Nicolas Jansen Calamita, John Kline, Markus Krajewski, Sarianna Lundan, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Ted Moran, Rajneesh Narula, Anthea Roberts, Mavluda Sattorova, Esme Shirlow, Jagjit Singh Srai, Heinz Tselmann, Gus Van Harten, Markus Wagner and Philip Wooldridge. Also acknowledged are comments received from other UNCTAD divisions as part of the internal peer review process, as well as comments from the Office of the Secretary-General. The United Nations Cartographic Section provided advice for the regional maps.Numerous officials of central banks, government agencies, international organizations and non-governmental organizations also contributed to the report. viiTable of ContentsTABLE OF CONTENTSPREFACE . iiiFOREWORD . ivACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . viABBREVIATIONS .xKEY MESSAGES . xiCHAPTER I. GLOBAL INVESTMENT TRENDS AND PROSPECTS .1A. CURRENT FDI TRENDS .21. Global trends .22. Trends by geography .33. Trends by sector and mode of entry .74. FDI and other cross-border capital flows .95. FDI as a component of financing for development .10B. FDI PROSPECTS .141. Overall prospects assessment .142. Key factors influencing future FDI flows .15C. INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION .201. Key indicators of international production .202. Trends in global value chains .223. Internationalization trends of the largest MNEs .26CHAPTER II. REGIONAL TRENDS .37A. DEVELOPING ECONOMIES .381. Africa .382. Developing Asia .443. Latin America and the Caribbean .50B. TRANSITION ECONOMIES .56C. DEVELOPED ECONOMIES .61viiiWorld Investment Report 2018 Investment and New Industrial PoliciesD. STRUCTURALLY WEAK, VULNERABLE AND SMALL ECONOMIES .661. Least developed countries .662. Landlocked developing countries .703. Small island developing States .74CHAPTER III. RECENT POLICY DEVELOPMENTS AND KEY ISSUES .79A. NATIONAL INVESTMENT POLICIES .801. Overall trends .802. Merger controls affecting foreign investors .85B. INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POLICIES .881. Recent developments in the international investment regime .882. Taking stock of IIA reform .95C. PHASE 3 OF IIA REFORM .1041. Improving investment policy coherence and synergies .1042. Maximizing synergies between the IIA regime and the national legal framework for investment .1053. Managing the interaction between IIAs and other bodies of international law affecting investment .1114. Dynamics of policymaking: flexibility and policy space .114D. CAPITAL MARKETS AND SUSTAINABILITY .1161. Stock exchanges ESG activities .1162. Green finance and ESG indices .1183. Gender equality .120CHAPTER IV. INVESTMENT AND NEW INDUSTRIAL POLICIES .125INTRODUCTION .126A. INDUSTRIAL POLICY: A MODERN PHENOMENON .1281. The recent proliferation of industrial policies .1282. New themes in industrial policies .1293. The central role of investment policies in industrial policies .131ixB. INDUSTRIAL POLICY MODELS .1341. The complexity of modern industrial policy packages .1342. Recent industrial policy designs .1393. Basic models and stages of development .144C. INVESTMENT POLICY PACKAGES .1461. Industrial policy as the key driver of investment policy practice .1462. Investment policy as an instrument for industrial development the evidence .1483.