奢侈品与宏观经济：从社零增速放缓说起.pdf

HeaderT able_User 1234877395 1761028795 HeaderT able_Industry 13020200 看好 investRatingChange.sa me 173833545 70% 16 PPI 1 GDP GDP 2 3 PPI 1-2 1 2 1-2 7 2 80 PPI (601888 ) PPI ( ) / /A 2018 08 30 WIND 021-63325888-5010 wangkeyuorientsec S0860518010001 dongbo1orientsec 2018-08-26 2018-08-20 2018-08-12 -21% -10% 0% 10% 21% 17/08 17/09 17/10 17/11 17/12 18/01 18/02 18/03 18/04 餐饮旅游 沪 深 300 HeaderTable_TypeTitle 2 / . 5 5 .6 ( ) 6 ( ) 70% 8 16 .9 . 11 GDP 11 . 14 PPI 16 19 . 19 ( ) 19 ( ) 7-9 22 . 24 . 26 . 28 . 29 . 30 HeaderTable_TypeTitle 3 1: 2008-2018 . 5 2: . 6 3: . 6 4: 1980-2017 . 8 5: . 9 6: . 10 7: . 10 8: LVMH . 10 9: Kering . 10 10: . 11 11: . 11 12: GDP . 12 13: LVMH GDP . 12 14: Kering GDP . 12 15: GDP . 13 16: GDP . 13 17: GDP . 14 18: . 15 19: . 15 20: LVMH . 15 21: Kering . 15 22: . 16 23: . 16 24: CPI . 16 25: LVMH CPI . 17 26: Kering CPI . 17 27: CPI . 17 28: CPI . 17 29: PPI . 18 30: LVMH PPI . 18 31: Kering PPI . 18 32: PPI . 19 33: PPI . 19 34: . 21 HeaderTable_TypeTitle 4 35: . 21 36: LVMH . 21 37: Kering . 21 38: . 22 39: . 22 40: LVMH . 23 41: LVMH . 23 42: LVMH . 24 43: LVMH . 24 44: . 25 45: . 25 46: LVMH . 26 47: Kering . 26 48: . 26 49: . 26 50: 2005-2017 . 27 51: . 28 52: 2017 . 28 53: . 28 54: . 28 1: . 7 2: . 20 3: . 25 HeaderTable_TypeTitle 5 2017 10% 18 10% 18 7 8.8% 1: 2008-2018 Wind / 2017 28%/14%/13% 13.03% 1.64% 1.88% 9.51% 18 5/6/7 30% 8.80 0 5 10 15 20 25 2008-01 2008-05 2008-09 2009-01 2009-05 2009-09 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 2013-09 2014-01 2014-05 2014-09 2015-01 2015-05 2015-09 2016-01 2016-05 2016-09 2017-01 2017-05 2017-09 2018-01 2018-05 : HeaderTable_TypeTitle 6 2: Wind 3: Wind